Will
Dork
3/25/14 7:25 a.m.
aircooled wrote:
I think one of the important variables here (and realistically pretty different from 1938) is the Russian populace. I don't pretend to say that they have a huge voice in what their government does, but at some point not having the populace behind you becomes an issue.
From what I hear, the Russian people are very untrustworthy of their government (as they certainly should be) and are likely not to believe too much of the propaganda. Not sure at what point they would become an issue though.
If they start annexing land, they are also going to acquire some pissed off locals that don't want them there.
The Russian populace wants to see Russia as its strong old self, and not a bumbling, Benny Hill-esque farce that can't figure out how to make toilets in the Olympic village work. All Putin has to do is say "Look how Russia stands up to the west" and he'll have all the support he needs.
Remember, this is a country that's starting to think that maybe Stalin got a bum rap.
If Russia invades Ukraine beyond Crimea, I would agree that this is similar to the moves Hitler made in the '30s but as of right now, I believe it has to do more with Russia wanting to protect an extremely valuable military base (as it acts as Russia's access point to the Mediterranean) and a big FU to the west after we have continuously expanded NATO into parts of the old Soviet bloc even though we said we wouldn't.
tuna55
PowerDork
3/25/14 8:27 a.m.
NGTD wrote:
jimbbski wrote:
Am I the only one who sees a parallel of what's going on in Russia and what Hitler did to the Sudatenland back in the late 1930's?
Nope. I have been thinking that for a while.
The only thing that Putin isn't saying is that Russia needs "living space", otherwise scary how similar.
This other guy agrees with you.
I think he is good at chess.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/03/vladmir-putin-crimea-hitler-1938-104711.html
Ian F
UltimaDork
3/25/14 8:51 a.m.
It's doubtful Putin will go so far as to risk actual conflict. Will he push things? Oh yeah... but more in a way to thumb his nose at the West. The situation is different than Germany in the 30's. Information is harder to control. Economies are more interlinked. Russia needs the West and the West needs Russia. The people that keep Putin in power are greedy as well and there was a taste of that when he eased up on the saber-rattling when the Russian stock market had a huge drop.
Kenny_McCormic wrote:
In reply to HiTempguy:
Personally, I think we could probably annex Canada while everybody is distracted by this Crimea crap, if the queen gets mad we can guilt trip her about WW2.
I'm only kinda joking.
I don't think they could handle being American.
I'm only half joking.
With the whole terrorism thing is losing it's grip of fear on the public ... another cold war is just what we need to keep the minions living in abstract fear of a distant enemy and feeding that defense budget! The Russians have everything we need to sew little gnawing kernels of angst and hatred. They are well educated, organized, they have a fixed address we can refer to and aim stuff at. They possess terrifying weapons like ours! Everything old will be new again.
Prepare for lessons on how to hide under your kitchen table in case of nuclear berkeleying holocaust.
Something something something.... not learn from mistakes....somethign something... repeat them...something something.
This all does make me nervous and concerned. I see substantial differences from the past that would keep this from really leading to WW3. Most notably, globalism. The world economy has become hugely intertwined since the end of the cold war. Russia and Europe depend heavily on regular trade with each other.
All-out war will only cut off the supply of resources Russia needs, not provide more of them. Also, Russia is in nowhere near the kind of depression that Germany was in.
That said, Putin is a crazy, narcissistic despot who I will not rely on being reasonable. This is going to get weirder and crazier before it relaxes.
I personally don't see this leading to a WWIII or cold war situation. More important to me is the ties Russia is making, principally with Iran. To me Iran is the potential spark to get things out of hand. They have been making definite moves lately that could lead to attacks against them, and in doing so, would lead Russia, the US and the rest of the world into a quickly escalating situation of global proportions.
There is so much going on the world right now that it is ripe for a major conflict, and Russia is most definitely aligning itself on the opposite side from the US. Our big mistake was removing the missile shield from Eastern Europe a few years ago. Yes it was antiquated, but it was more of a symbol. Right now, Russia does not fear the US or Europe one bit, and he will simply keep going and do what he wants. He knows there will be zero recourse, Europe wants his oil too badly and the US has no vision or purpose beyond social issues.
As far as similarities, there are far more now to the US and the Soviet Union of the '80's than Hitler of the '30's. We are becoming increasingly irrelevant just like the Soviets before the fall, and our economy is tanking similarly as well. I don't believe Putin wants to control the world like Hitler, but he does want the Soviet Union back and I think he will take it without any opposition from anyone outside of the affected countries.
Bobzilla wrote:
Kenny_McCormic wrote:
In reply to HiTempguy:
Personally, I think we could probably annex Canada while everybody is distracted by this Crimea crap, if the queen gets mad we can guilt trip her about WW2.
I'm only kinda joking.
I don't think they could handle being American.
I'm only half joking.
Think about how nice "Americans" would be for a few months, until we make them "real" 'Muricans.
You kidding? I have dealt with nothing but rudeness from north of the border. I'd almost rather have the ones I can't understand what they're saying but at least they're mowing my yard over the nose upturned rude "you're whole country is rude" attitude I get from our neighbors to the north.*
.
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.* Some is made in jest, other parts are not. You can decide your level of outrage.
So if I come down and mow your lawn you will like me?