Shortage? Food & Fertilizer: Can we discuss it politely?

In reply to volvoclearinghouse :

Haha, yeah it is. I was trying to be polite, as the title requested LOL. 

I have many bad things to say about the media. More so after the last two elections and Covid. 

The UN is talking about an upcoming shortage as reported in this Associated Press article.

A quote from the article:

“This year’s food access issues could become next year’s global food shortage,” he said. “No country will be immune to the social and economic repercussions of such a catastrophe.”

I live in Farm country.  My property borders a farm field on one side and another at the rear.  I still think this is something to keep an eye on: It takes a lot of diesel fuel to operate all the farm equipment.

In reply to NOHOME :

We do not live in a free market.  See the above.  The govt pays farmers not to produce.  That is market interference.  Then there are taxes, tariffs, and numerous other laws and rules that make the markets anything but free.  

Container spot prices are now cheaper than most negotiated rates. 
 

the supply chain issues are being removed slowly. 

Over in the Russian invasion thread, it's reported that grain shipments still aren't being allowed to leave the Ukrainian ports.  The Ukraine is the fourth largest exporter of grain in the world.  That surely is going to reduce the supply side of the market dynamics.

In reply to Indy - Guy :

Seems like a good way to use the now empty arms trains that came from the west. Shipping may be more efficient, but when that's not an option...

Nooooooo!

alfadriver said:

In reply to Indy - Guy :

Seems like a good way to use the now empty arms trains that came from the west. Shipping may be more efficient, but when that's not an option...

Interesting.  I wonder if the logistics can handle the flow of grain in the "opposite direction".     i.e. if the grain is already loaded into a ship, do they have grain elevators to get it out of the cargo hold and back into a train

Indy - Guy said:

mtn said:

In reply to aircooled :

It isn't the grain itself, it is the fertilizer to grow it that is the worry. Obviously you can grow without it but...

Yes, that's the point.  Yield will be reduced with reduced fertilizer usage.  If the worlds farmers use 10% less fertilizer on crops this season, than the harvest this year will be 10% less than last year.

 The developed countries will just have to pay more, but the poorer countries, could be squeezed out.

Fertilizer isn't a 1 for 1 deal.  Farmers can and do stretch its application all of the time.   Plus heavy usage require good rainfall.   Something that is a real problem currently. 
  The gamble is high fertilization rates will produce higher yields but is the cost going to be offset by the yield and market price?   
    In addition there are replacements to chemicals.   Manure for example.  Flooding fields prior to planting from local rivers. Etc.  
       

Indy - Guy said:

alfadriver said:

In reply to Indy - Guy :

Seems like a good way to use the now empty arms trains that came from the west. Shipping may be more efficient, but when that's not an option...

Interesting.  I wonder if the logistics can handle the flow of grain in the "opposite direction".     i.e. if the grain is already loaded into a ship, do they have grain elevators to get it out of the cargo hold and back into a train

 

Not likely the flow, but it would be better than zero. 
 

also, the ships have to be able to unload at the destination.  

Inflation can be a winner for those who really understand how to benefit from it.  
Some  will turn out way ahead while others fall further behind. 
        It really depends on  a lot of little things. Long term,  investments in assets  tend to pay off better then the short term losses of consumables. 
  Real estate can be a big winner if properly selected up front. 
      If you already own an EV likely you will come out way ahead of those who have yet to buy one. Or those who keep  using gas/oil. 
   The nature of inflation is things rise in cost  so you ask for a raise or look for a better paying job.  You'll fall behind but if  you prioritize the long term over the short term you'll catch up.  It's like getting on an escalator.  The quicker you get on the sooner you're at the top. 
     

IMO the farming issue has been going on for about 75 years in the US.

2014 article on the matter. 

Before the advent of the "Super" market families had a farm or a garden. We were still canning food, having root cellars, etc. The decline started in haste about WW2. I get it, it made life easier and opened up time for families to become more efficient/ focused at manufacturing or what ever.

Back then, and to a certain point today, if you had a surplus in your garden or fauna production you'd reach out to your neighbors to see what they needed and barter. Most importantly, you made the majority of at least your veggies, if not some of your meat (eggs/chickens mostly).

So here we are in 2022, hunting and foraging at your local Publix, Giant Eagle, Kroger, Ralphs, etc. Odd that we are reliant on subsidized farms and the global market.

We now rely on a global market of flash ripened, heavily fertilized veggies, and steroid fed meat.

Currently, I live on a cliff in old growth trees. Best I can grow is chickens and tomatoes. I have found it not terribly convenient for just those two small additions, though I will change that if necessary.  We rely on local farms and then the grocery store. Here in New England you can get really good meat and produce from your local farmer a town or so over.

You do pay for it though. I believe those prices will not inflate too much as well.

Self-reliance and Community. Two shoulders that need to be strong.

My motivation on this subject is mostly I want to know what I am eating. I am not convinced that fertilizers and GMOs are the life I want to feed me.

It takes a season or so to figure out what your garden needs.

I could go on.

In reply to preach (dudeist priest) :

It's just as effective to join a CSA, or maybe more so. 

In reply to alfadriver :

Same thing just more regulated. Way easier to get into though, so, better for the majority I'd think.

Indy - Guy said:

alfadriver said:

In reply to Indy - Guy :

Seems like a good way to use the now empty arms trains that came from the west. Shipping may be more efficient, but when that's not an option...

Interesting.  I wonder if the logistics can handle the flow of grain in the "opposite direction".     i.e. if the grain is already loaded into a ship, do they have grain elevators to get it out of the cargo hold and back into a train

My concern would be the logistics to be able to ship that amount of grain by rail.  I don't know if they have the cars, or even the ability to load trains (field to storage / port may be done by truck?).  One of the primary shipping port, Mariupol is under Russian control, and the Russians have already likely taken most of that grain and either shipped it back to Russian or are trying to sell it illegally (there has be clear evidence of this).

There is of course the Russian reaction if the load up a bunch of trains.  It's not entirely unlikely the Russians would attack those.  They have already attack grain storage in southern Ukraine, attacked a fertilizer plant, and attacked bridges that could be used to transport grain to Romania.  (Of course, you also have be aware that some of this info may be a bit of Ukrainian propaganda / exaggeration.)

Food shortages and starvation only serve to help the Russian position (e.g. negotiate to remove sanctions) so they have little interest in preventing them (they have plenty of grain internally). 

Popcorn shortage.

That's right,

popcorn.  TV said so, it must be true.

(insert maniacally laughter)

I haven't seen any lack of fertilizer availability here, but the price is sure high. 28% nitrogen we use for corn is about $600/ton, roughly double last years price.