Dr. Hess wrote: Also, what about these foot prints in the snow? Did they go just to the one window with the bad sash? Or did the prints go around the whole house like they checked all entrances?
The footprints don't indicate any interest in any other entrances, but the window he chose is the one that's most temptingly accessible. The rest of the windows are both uncomfortably high and more exposed to neighbors. I think he may have been prepared to break the window, but knew enough to look for the signs of a fallen sash, and knew that meant he wouldn't need to break it and draw extra attention.
Dr. Hess wrote: Were there signs of a vehicle outside the gate?
No signs of a vehicle (I live on a moderately trafficed city street), but the footprints indicate at least one trip out of my gate, to the street, then back again. With the amount of stuff he took, I don't think he'd be able to carry it any distance.
Dr. Hess wrote: You mention facebook. Was this party talked about on your facebook page? Did one of your "friends" read that and hit you?
Actually, this is one of the few events that haven't been talked up on FB. No invites or any other notices; it was all person-to-person, word of mouth. And the party was populated by people who I know well and trust. Really, I'm looking for that connection, but I'm not finding anything.
Dr. Hess wrote: What was not taken? That is, if other things of value were left and the guitars went, that would indicate a guitar person.
Nothing. And I'd argue that none of the guitars he took have any resale/pawn value. They're either too cheap or too obscure to be sold easily. We don't have much...stuff. And he was upstairs looking for cash or jewelery, but don't have any of that lying around to take. He did best with the laptops and tools, but he wasted his time on the rest.
Dr. Hess wrote: The guitars and the mac books went, OK, who knows guitars, is "friended," knows the dog, was not at the party or was at the party but left for a half hour/hour/long enough to get there and back? Just tossing out ideas.
The thing is, since we only moved in less than a year ago, we haven't had any big parties with friends-of-friends or anybody we don't know well in the house. I can't even think of more than three service guys that have been in the house.
Here's the theory I'm working on: dumb luck. The human brain is a pattern-seeking machine, so it's tempting to deduce a story from a set of facts. But I think Occam's Razor must be applied; the simplest explanation is that this was a hit by a reasonably seasoned burglar who knew what to look for, and we screwed up enough to make his job significantly easier. The house looked empty on a day that many houses are reliably empty; the window sash was visibly faulty; the only guitars that he took were the ones that were literally in his way to get in through the window he entered, and if he knew guitars, he'd have taken a couple he left here; the laptops, in a weird twist of fate, were both stacked like white beacons on the coffee table, which is not where we usually leave them; our dog is really a huge Bob Costas; our alarm wasn't set because we were in a hurry; I accidentally left the garage door unlocked after a day going in an out to shovel the sidewalks; etc.
This was sort of a perfect storm - at least we didn't leave the front door open with a flashing neon sign pointing him to the good stuff, but we really may as well have done as much. One of the reasons I'm kicking myself over this whole deal is that I know I dropped the ball in a significant number of scenarios. And I'm not happy about it.
All I want is that one guitar back. Insurance will cover the rest, but that one is irreplaceable.
Keep an eye out, folks.
Thanks again for your thoughts, advice and assistance.
