Tesla Truck or not all disruption is good.

STM317 said:

Are we just assuming that somebody is going to come up with new battery tech that doesn't require raw materials in relatively short supply? Lithium and cobalt are the primary elements used in current batteries. There's a very finite amount of each. In fact, all of the cobalt that we know about on the planet pretty much comes from just one place right now (the Republic of Congo, or whatever it's known as these days).

Lithium and cobalt can be recycled, they aren't consumed when they're put into a battery. And there are battery types being researched that don't use them at all.

iadr said:

Germany is considered a cesspool of crime [...]

No one anywhere considers it worthy of respect.

Bad news, this is factually wrong:

http://www.gfk.com/insights/press-release/germany-reclaims-top-nation-brand-ranking-with-usa-dropping-to-sixth-place/

mad_machine said:

Electric motors may have a lot of torque, but you can apply power smoothly (or the computer can do it for you) and simply "steam" away in a dignified manner. This is also probably the secret to Tesla's claim of a 20 second sprint to 60, no need to shift all the way up to that speed, just give it throttle and go.

That had to be done with our first hybrid buses.  The original program was catching people off guard as the buses left stops and standees were sent shuffling towards the rear of the bus.  After a few tweaks they were able to calm down the initial acceleration while still being able to merge into traffic better than our diesels at the time.

So, let's integrate  a couple of Musk's ideas...

-Tesla has a truck.

-Tesla owns the Gigafactory, which is already producing more batteries than any other factory in the world, and will eventually produce 150 GWh per year.  More battery production in this single factory than worldwide production in 2013.

-The Gigafactory produces an industrial battery pack called the Powerpack.  It is a turnkey modular system about the size of a refrigerator, fully integrated, renewable compatible, infinity expandable.  

- Trucks go to depots frequently, and are in the business of loading, unloading, and moving stuff.

So, why couldn't a Tesla truck depot have extra Powerpacks that swapped as easily as loading a pallet onto the truck?  It would load the same way airplanes do now- while passengers are loading on one level, luggage and services are loading on another.  So, while truck cargo loads were being loaded, Powerpacks could swap into the battery berths, enabling extended range.

Plus, these packs could be charged from solar, and Solar City (another Musk venture) would be happy to supply the solar collectors.

For you data nerds, Here's some interesting comparisons between the Cummins Supertruck program and the theoretical Tesla truck:

Supertruck vs Tesla truck

Looks like the first huge gain is in engine cycle efficiency.  The best diesel has to offer is apparently a 42% potential engine cycle efficiency, compared to 86% for the electric.

Overall improvements (by the time we count aero, regenerative braking, etc)  reduce the amount of energy required from 100 for the diesel to 34 in the electric semi truck: a factor of 2.94 better than the diesel.

It's theoretical, but there is certainly a lot to think about.

Here's the thing I love about Tesla, that almost everyone misses:

It's not a car company. It's a tech company. They make the technology, and they can either use it themselves, or sell it to others who lack it (everyone else), or both. Sure, they aren't as good yet at vehicle mass-production as Detroit (who has, um, been doing it for a HUNDRED years?). Does Detroit make batteries? Solar cells? Do they have the knowledge and resources to make electric traction motors to accelerate 40 tons to 60 mph in 20 seconds? Detroit is years behind in driverless car tech. Tesla S can drive itself around at regular human speeds on regular human roads with only some human supervision needed. And a Ford can... parallel park itself super-slowly on a football game commercial? I can tell you which I'd rather have in my own car.

Tesla is just systematically knocking out transportation categories to prove that they all work better on Tesla's technology:

1. Expensive novelty car targeted at silicon valley sells with electric motor? check

2. Luxury car sells with electric motor? check

3. CUV sells with electric motor? check

4. Economy car sells with electric motor? check

5. Semi-truck sells with electric motor? check

6. World-beating hypercar sells with electric motor? check

So, once the world sees that everything works better with electric motors and batteries, they will only have one place to go buy them in order to produce cars.

I have no hard data, but anecdotally in my area if you look in the want ads drivers are the biggest job shortage. The ads looking for drivers is usually close to all other job ads combined, and this has been true as long as I have been old enough to work. So my point is yes, jobs will be eliminated, but how many of those jobs are already unfilled?

To be fair,  Porsche isn' an auto manufacturer. It' an engineering firm. 

gearheadmb said:

I have no hard data, but anecdotally in my area if you look in the want ads drivers are the biggest job shortage. The ads looking for drivers is usually close to all other job ads combined, and this has been true as long as I have been old enough to work. So my point is yes, jobs will be eliminated, but how many of those jobs are already unfilled?

It doesn't actually matter how many are unfilled.  What matters is how many are FILLED.

3.5 million.

SVreX said:

gearheadmb said:

I have no hard data, but anecdotally in my area if you look in the want ads drivers are the biggest job shortage. The ads looking for drivers is usually close to all other job ads combined, and this has been true as long as I have been old enough to work. So my point is yes, jobs will be eliminated, but how many of those jobs are already unfilled?

It doesn't actually matter how many are unfilled.  What matters is how many are FILLED.

3.5 million.

I've heard that the trucking industry would hire 50k tomorrow if they had the people applying. but that is a speck compared to 3.5m.

Robbie said:

SVreX said:

gearheadmb said:

I have no hard data, but anecdotally in my area if you look in the want ads drivers are the biggest job shortage. The ads looking for drivers is usually close to all other job ads combined, and this has been true as long as I have been old enough to work. So my point is yes, jobs will be eliminated, but how many of those jobs are already unfilled?

It doesn't actually matter how many are unfilled.  What matters is how many are FILLED.

3.5 million.

I've heard that the trucking industry would hire 50k tomorrow if they had the people applying. but that is a speck compared to 3.5m.

Maybe I'm missing something here. If the industry is 50,000 drivers short, and 49,999 self driving trucks show up, how many truck drivers are out of work? My guess is it will take a long time to put 50,000 self driving trucks on the roads.

Another aspect is of those 3.5 million drivers, how many are owner operators? These people could either choose to continue on as driving as they are, or get their own self driving truck and run their business from home, or however that would be handled. Of course, I suppose it will become much harder to compete with the big companies, that if I had to guess the only thing keeping them from taking down the little guys is a lack of butts in seats.

In reply to gearheadmb :

OK, so I own a trucking company.  I am short handed, there is a lot more business than I can handle.  I am in the position to invest in a small fleet of self-driving trucks, and I do it.

Each of those self-driving trucks I buy covers 4X as many miles per week as a driver-operated truck.  They do it with less issues, have no payroll expenses related, and my insurance is less costly.  Plus, I don't have to hear about stories of my drivers getting in trouble with local lot lizards.

The first thing I do is buy more trucks, and start grabbing as much market share as I can.  The second thing I do is fire as many drivers as I can.

I have no need whatsoever to fill 49,999 jobs before I start getting my own affairs in order.  All of my competitors will think exactly the same way.

In reply to gearheadmb :

The flaw in your logic is that you are assuming the individual trucking companies have an obligation to fill the existing shortfalls in the labor pool.  They have no such obligation.  They only have to improve their own profits.

Here's a weight savings we have not talked about...

Sleeper cabs will be unnecessary in long distance trucks. 

SVreX said:

Here's a weight savings we have not talked about...

CABS will be unnecessary in long distance trucks. 

FTFY

I don't see Trucks going completely autonomous before cars. I know from my time behind the wheel, you had to watch half a mile down the road so as to be able to anticipate what the civilians were going to do. People do stupid things around trucks, including trying to get hit by them for the insurance and lawsuit money. Until we have a lot of self driving cars all talking to each other, trucks will need somebody behind the wheel

Just like I do not see Tesla's idea for caravanning working out in a lot of places. It was hard enough trying to maneuver one truck in traffic to change lanes, how to you do three?

In reply to SVreX :As I’ve said before,  the airline industry is already self driving. Planes can be programmed to take off fly and land without pilot input.  And have been able for decades! 

Yet every commercial flight has a pilot, copilot and other crew.  

Same with trains and ships.  

Jobs aren’t going to be lost, they will simply change as they have changed in the past and will change in the future

GameboyRMH said:

 

STM317 said:

Are we just assuming that somebody is going to come up with new battery tech that doesn't require raw materials in relatively short supply? Lithium and cobalt are the primary elements used in current batteries. There's a very finite amount of each. In fact, all of the cobalt that we know about on the planet pretty much comes from just one place right now (the Republic of Congo, or whatever it's known as these days).

Lithium and cobalt can be recycled, they aren't consumed when they're put into a battery. And there are battery types being researched that don't use them at all.

So that's basically a "yes, we're hoping something better comes along." It might. With enough time, and money, smart people are capable of so much. But there's no guarantee however. How much time and money have smart people spent trying to cure cancer? 

Being recyclable is a good thing! But how many batteries will be recycled? If EVs are more reliable than ICEs, cars and trucks won't need to be replaced as often due to mechanical failure. And if the self-driving tech continues to spread, there should be fewer accidents that would render vehicles useless. Unless the goal is to turn cars into throw away appliances, I'm not sure that there's a net gain there in battery supply. And if the goal is to make vehicles throw away appliances that become obsolete after 4 or 5 years, just to keep these corporations in business, that seems incredibly wasteful doesn't it?

mad_machine said:

STM317 said:

. Plus a frame sturdy enough to carry that weight a million miles while handling the instant torque of those big electric motors.

 

I don't see the frame needing to take all that torque. With the motors in the hubs, all the torque is kept to the axle area, whereas a diesel rig has torque running all the way down the from frame from bumper to bumper. Also, electric motors in the hubs do not need transmissions, thus the need to floor it, shift a thousand RPMs later, floor it, shift, floor it, shift, etcetcetc all through the ten speed transmission and two speed differential are gone. Electric motors may have a lot of torque, but you can apply power smoothly (or the computer can do it for you) and simply "steam" away in a dignified manner. This is also probably the secret to Tesla's claim of a 20 second sprint to 60, no need to shift all the way up to that speed, just give it throttle and go.

Electric motors large enough to generate enough torque to move 80,000 lbs as quickly as Tesla claims are going to be heavy, and they're going to want to twist the hell out of whatever they're attached to. The battery is going to be heavy. Adding all of that up It seems pretty likely that this Tesla truck cab will weigh more than a normal truck, which means the suspensions have to be more robust (heavier). So we've got a frame that has to support a good deal more weight, and resist more twist( just in different directions).  The frame designs will likely be different, due to much different needs but let's not get carried away with our expectations. 

In reply to mad_machine :

In trials so far caravanning has  been pretty promising 

In reply to Wally :

When you think of it, overall new technology has improved our life not ruined it.  

Yes there are some negatives but should we go back?  Can you imagine what our cities would stink like with all those horses dropping manure and taking a leak when needed?  Summer days would smell as bad as a hog farm. While winters would pile up manure to be shoveled off the roads in the spring

Not to mention the cost of feeding them?  What does a hay- bale costnow days?  How much would the required oats and corn cost for a year?  

Not to mention the joy of sitting on a horses back  inMinnesota’s  30 to 40 below winters.  

Morning commute would take nearly all morning, with afternoon commute the same amount of time!   

Where will the electricity come from?

In reply to Appleseed :

Hopefully gas turbines

That was kind of a loaded question because I know where most of our electricity comes from currently  (no pun intended. )

In reply to Appleseed :

I am assuming you are pointing out that our electric generation capacity is not a clean industry.  You are right.

But infrastructure decisions should be made in line with end-line user needs.  You don't build a system by starting with the core infrastructure and delivering whatever the heck you want to to the end line users.  You start by identifying the user needs, then building the system to match.

100+ years ago, we made a decision that our primary transportation end line user experience would be a network of roads and independently powered vehicles.  We built the network to serve the need. That's why rails can't meet our needs- rails are a secondary system that are not capable of meeting our primary transportation needs.

Similarly, if we make the cultural choice to say that electric vehicles meet the primary needs of our end line users most effectively, we can build the infrastructure to support that decision.  Once electric vehicles are in place, it's easy to modify the generation system for more efficient and appropriate power generation methods, especially since there are multiple ways to generate electricity (but only 1 way to make petroleum).

I know many people believe in the "build it and they will come" model.  I think systems develop more organically, and are most effective when they develop from the grassroots up.

mad_machine said:

Going back to the short comings of the Tesla Trucks. At what point does somebody produce a "tesla trailer" to go with it that has a range extending batter built into it and solar recharging on the roof?

 It could be done, but the amount of energy it could provide would take more than 3 days of continuous sunlight to put a full charge into the truck's battery:

https://www.wired.com/story/could-tesla-power-its-electric-truck-with-solar-panels/