Things are getting better, go spend some money.

Curmudgeon wrote:

Conquest351 wrote: We are DEAD in the shop right now. Our car count is half of what it should be, if not less. We twiddle our thumbs and I surf on here most of the day, as we've already done everything productive. I sure hope it changes for the better.

Ah yes, the January doldrums. Been there many times. It's the reality of all that excessive Christmas spending coming back to roost. It will pick up around the first of Feb when the first tax return anticipation loans start popping up and continue as the tax refunds start coming in.

JanuaryFebruary is traditionally when I'd get time off of work and get some work done on the "fun" car. Last year, I was working extra hours every day of the week, this year looks like it's going to be no exception.

Money's nice to have, but useless if you can't DO anything with it because you have no time. I'm resorting to farming out personal work to other shops.

The average person overspends at Christmas and then struggles to get through Jan-Feb because on top of the usual bills the big CC bills show up. Tax forms are usually out by the 3rd week of January and the first refund anticipation loans hit around the 1st week of February.

That phenomenon is not only Christmas, around here anyone who runs a retail business will tell you the State Fair sucks the local economy dry for ~3 weeks. The 1st and 15th of each month generally spike some due to the Fort Jackson payroll.

No-don't go spend it. Get your financial house in order so this crap won't hurt you so bad the next time. The average American lives so close to or so far beyond their earning ability that it is ridiculous.

That's what should happen but unfortunately most times it doesn't, the TV keeps telling you that you MUST have that latest status symbol or people will laugh at you behind your back.

Curmudgeon wrote: That's what should happen but unfortunately most times it doesn't, the TV keeps telling you that you MUST have that latest status symbol or people will laugh at you behind your back.

And now we have the Gov't telling us it is our duty to spend to pull the country out of the recession.

Curmudgeon wrote: That's what should happen but unfortunately most times it doesn't, the TV keeps telling you that you MUST have that latest status symbol or people will laugh at you behind your back.

I dunno. I get kind of embarassed whenever I'm driving a new car. It's like... is this really necessary?

Knurled wrote: is this really necessary?

It's how I feel with a lot of new things. I wanted a 60" plasma BAD on boxing day. But I currently rent a room, and it's only 12'x12' (and I have a 32" lcd and a 50" lcd hanging on the wall, the 50 came with the rent though). And then I really think to myself "is this really necessary, and what will I actually gain from it?" and the answer is nothing. Just like buying a new car, every year I get the urge to do it and I go shopping. Then I realize how stupid it is when I can get a vehicle that fills every single need a new one would, for around $5-$10k.

I "might" buy a new base model quad cab 4x4 1/2 ton chev next year though. Trucks are much different than buying cars due to the abuse they see, and having the 5.3L with the 6 speed is a ridiculously killer combo... around here, trucks also hold their value quite well. We're talking almost a decade old Ford 1/2 ton 4x4 can still go for near $10k with 120k miles on it.

carguy123 wrote: As odd as it may sound, for years the Barrett-Jackson Scottsdale auction has mirrored the buying and spending habits of the everyday man on the street. Yeah, I know that sounds odd to use Barrett-Jackson and everyday man on the street in the same sentence, but how the car collectors act seems to be pretty close to how the economy acts and the people on the street. For the past couple of years BJ has had a pretty good attendance, but the people sat on their hands. That's not to say a select few didn't make some stupid deals, but by and large they window shopped rather than really buying. BJ even got rid of their reserves on cars because an embarrassing large number didn't sell. Things changed this year. They generated more than $92M in gross sales which was a 32% increase over last year and had a 16% increase in attendance over last year. Here's a startling fact, more than 50% of the bidders were new/first time bidders. Also nearly half of the consignees were new. This tells me "THEY" are right when they say 2012 will be a much better year than 2011. Well that is if all the election garbage doesn't destroy it.

You mean WEALTHY people are spending money on people's undervalued toys that they quickly found out they couldn't afford??? SHOCKING!

I am not an economist. I am however an evil business owner who hopes to one day be part of the uber-evil "one percent." Thank_berkeleying_god for rich people. They are the wise, discerning people who know quality and value when they see it, and are the folks keeping me running at full steam right now.

Again: WEALTHY people are buying the toys that people who thought they were rich thought they could afford. This is not a "Sign of the 'recovery'" IMO. This is what smart people do when not-so-smart people finance toys.

The Baltic Dry Index tells me that worldwide trade is drying up. I think that a lot of the 'good' economic indicators are either heavily manipulated by the government (CPI, unemployment, GDP) or industry groups (NAR is a prime example of BS made up numbers). Economic data that is reported in dollars is suspect when one considers just how much and how fast the money supply has grown since 2008. Sales, measured in dollars, might be up, but number of items sold may not be. Measuring things in inflated dollars and trying to use the official values of CPI to correct them will throw everything off.

I fully expect 2012 to be worse than 2011. We are not coming out of our economic mess - we have spent the past 3 years just digging a deeper hole for ourselves.

actually.. another sign of a better economy is my business. My Business partner and I cater to highend parties from NYC to Washington DC. The last couple of years have been dry.. but we are seeing business pick up as people are beginning to spend big bucks on parties again.

I am not talking corporate parties.. those people always spent money.. I mean things like $50,000 bar mitzvas... (I have seen more expensive)

nocones wrote: Bravenrace are you saying if suddenly tomorrow someone told you your house was worth $50k more than it is right now that would change your financial Outlook? I just don't get that. Who cares what your house is "worth" you still only owe what you originally agreed to pay at your original mortgage terms. In 20 years it will be payer off the same as if it was worth 10x what you paid. You will still pay the same amount. Short of making you feel better what would change if the value was higher? I bought in Mar 2005 sold/bought in Mar 2011 so I have experienced both sides of the value rollercoaster

Home values are significant for a few reasons, other than making people feel better.

1- They represent a huge percentage of many people's net worth. Lowering this single asset lowers the financial value and net worth of families across the country.

2- The appraised value represents an asset that can effect people's borrowing power, which in turn can effect their purchasing power. As a large group of people's purchasing power declines, the new price falls further (because they can afford less), which hurts anyone who's livelihood is in any way connected to the housing market.

3- As earlier noted, 70% of the jobs lost were in construction. I don't know if that includes ancillary businesses (like building supplies or construction equipment manufacturing), or "jobs" that technically never existed (like illegal workers, or subcontractors). Lower home values eliminate a huge number of jobs.

4- Lower prices also lower appraised and assessed values, which lower the tax base for a community.

So for a person who owns a house and has no intention of selling, house prices are not that important- just a number on a balance sheet, or a warm and happy feeling.

But for the country as a whole and for the economy overall, lower home values are devastating.

That map was all red recently and even 6 months ago there were at least 10 states that were red.

In reply to carguy123:

Just this week in my local paper it stated that home values in our city dropped 10% in just the last year.
So here's the bottom line, carguy. Your post told people to start spending money because things were getting better. Except they aren't getting better for all of us. I'm glad things are going well for you, but please don't make blanket statements like that. Some people might believe you when they shouldn't.

poopshovel wrote: You mean WEALTHY people are spending money on people's undervalued toys that they quickly found out they couldn't afford??? SHOCKING!... ....WEALTHY people are buying the toys that people who thought they were rich thought they could afford. This is not a "Sign of the 'recovery'" IMO. This is what smart people do when not-so-smart people finance toys.

I agree with you that these are all wealthy people, but I don't agree that these are generally "toys" that people could not afford. From what I have seen at BJ, they are mostly Investment cars, I find if very unlikely that most of these cars are driven.

B.J. is more like a commodities market then a toy market for most. The people that are selling are either trying to free up money (maybe because of the economy) or make money (if the value is up).

Not that there aren't some good toy cars in there, just that most of them seem to be investment cars.

I'd need money to spend it.

bravenrace wrote: In reply to carguy123: Just this week in my local paper it stated that home values in our city dropped 10% in just the last year. So here's the bottom line, carguy. Your post told people to start spending money because things were getting better. Except they aren't getting better for all of us. I'm glad things are going well for you, but please don't make blanket statements like that. Some people might believe you when they shouldn't.

That would eliminate 99.99% of all posts to the forum if they had to apply to all people equally.

And did the home values drop 10% in the last year or did the Tax Assessors just drop values across the board 10% because it was the easiest thing for them to do. Or could it be that the mix of home sold was 10% down from the mix of homes sold last year.

Don't believe most of what you read/see in the media, they tend to take the most negative approach to be able to sell newspapers, get click thrus or get ratings. Look at the data yourself. It's out there. The interweb is a very neat invention.

I look at the data and except for a few hold out areas most the grand ol' US of A is improving. A lot of places may have a long way to go before they get back to 2006 levels but they are headed that direction.

Have you considered a name change? I'm thinking Grumpy or Grouchy might be more appropriate. Someone peed in your cornflakes and you are determined that everyone else has to suffer too.

I just scrolled a short way back in that link I sent you and here's what I found. BTW, You need to read more than just the headlines.

"The number of California homes going into foreclosure dropped in the fourth quarter of 2011 to the second-lowest level in more than four years." DFW foreclosures are BELOW the levels of pre-recession.

"The Wall Street Journal says this will be a good year for Builders"

"The amount of improving metro area housing markets nearly doubled in January to 76 cities, according to an index monitored by First American Financial Corp. (: ) and the National Association of Homebuilders. This is an encouraging sign that gradually strengthening economic conditions are starting to take hold across a broader swath of America, Crowe said. The substantial gain in the number of improving housing markets in January shows that more consumers are looking favorably at a home purchase in light of today’s historically low interest rates and attractive prices, particularly in areas where job growth has picked up," Pfotenhauer said."

"Illinois home sales up 14% in December, continuing the trend."

"According to Florida realtors, Florida home & condo sales have risen for the third straight year." Another of those hard hit areas.

"HOUSTON HOME SALES ROSE FOR THE 7TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH - up 7.2%"

"Southern California home sales jumped 14% in December over November. "

"REMAX says sales unexpectedly jumped 5.7% in December from November. Sales usually fall in the winter months. But homes continued moving late last year, up 1.1% from December 2010. It's the sixth consecutive month of yearly increases. ‎"We're pleasantly surprised to see the year end with such strong sales, and hope this trend will continue into the traditional spring selling season," said Margaret Kelly, CEO of the company. Sales made the highest jump in Providence, R.I., where volumes increased 32% from last year. Sales also rose 24% in Wilmington, Del. And 19% in Miami, one of the highest foreclosure rates in the country. Prices increased nearly 17% there as well."

"BULLISH 2012? - David Crowe, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders has put out his forecasts (excel) calling for new home sales to increase to 360 thousand in 2012 (from 304 thousand in 2011), and for housing starts to increase 17% to 709 thousand. He forecasts single family starts will also increase 17% to 501 thousand. Crowe expects a significant increase in new home sales in 2013."

"Here is the most optimistic forecast I've seen from Moody's via Julie Schmit at USA Today: Housing outlook is more upbeat Existing home sales will rise 12% this year after a 2% increase last year, and new home sales, coming off a horrid year, will jump 74% this year, Moody's Analytics predicts.

Single-family housing starts will rise 37% this year, Moody's predicts, after falling 9% last year."

"UH OH! THE MEDIAN PRICE OF HOMES IN DALLAS HAVE FALLEN $5K SINCE 2009 - what does that mean? Not as much as you'd think at first. Median price is the midpoint of all homes sold. So if you have a lot of higher priced homes selling the median goes up. A larger number of lower priced homes means the median goes down. A better question is WHY the price rose or fell. In this case it's because since 2009 there has been next to no Jumbo loan money available so therefore the higher end houses haven't been able to be sold thru any type of normal channels and therefore all their data is missing from the mix. Few large home sales = lower median price. The good news is that Texas still tops the nation in economic and housing data and are still getting Appreciation in almost all parts of the state."

"Jobless claims fell to the lowest level in 4 years last week. Well below analysts expectations."

"FANNIE MAE: The housing sector will likely take incremental steps forward in 2012, according to economists at Fannie Mae. We're entering 2012 with decent momentum, especially on the employment side, which is fostering positive household and consumer behavior," Duncan said in a release.

Unfortunately, we expect this momentum to slow as we move through the first half of the year. (the election, duh!) The report released Friday forecast total home sales to increase 3.5% & New home sales could jump 10.4% for 2012. The second half of the year should outpace the first six months in terms of growth, though fiscal policy and political uncertainty in Washington will likely drive consumer and business activity, the mortgage giant said."

"Here's another indicator the economy is finally rebounding -Remittances to Mexico are rebounding!" How much money the Hispanics send back home to Mama in the old country.

While I was being tongue in cheek using Barrett-Jackson as an indicator, although they really have been a good predictor for quite a number of years, I stand behind my statement. Things ARE getting better.

I'm tired of cutting and pasting. I think there is a song that sums things up quite well. "There is none so blind as he who will not see."

carguy123 wrote:

I agree that measured in dollars things may be on an upswing. But, that is meaningless when the money supply has been tripled in the past few years. Everything measured in dollars has gone up, but that doesn't mean the economy is producing anymore than it did. In fact, if you triple the amount of dollars, and then say that a few percent increase in sales means we are heading in the right direction, I would seriously question your analytical abilities.

Your graph shows that we went from about 80 to about 90, but it doesn't tell the whole story, and the graph is really nothing more than a distraction and propaganda, but not exactly the real truth.

So what would be proof?

BTW in case you didn't notice this came from the Federal Reserve.

Now look at the rest of the data and tell me point by point how things aren't getting better than they were. You can't, things are improving.

carguy123 wrote: BTW in case you didn't notice this came from the Federal Reserve.

That's how I knew it was propaganda in the first place. I haven't read this whole thread and don't really plan on it, so I cannot rebut your points - I don't know what they are. If I am feeling feisty I may go back and read what you posted other than the graph I commented on.

Foreclosures are down because the illegal MERS scam has been stopped. The banks and their robosigners have been caught and banks seem to be content with letting people live in their houses while not paying their mortgages and not foreclose on them. Some of this has to do with the fact that between MERS and robosigning, the banks do not legally have the right to foreclose since they do not hold the deed. Some of this has to do with their accounting and not having to write off a bad loan until they foreclose.

Jobless claims are low because there are millions of people who no longer qualify for them and have given up. Unemployment has only gone down because of phony seasonal adjustments and the continual shrinking of the working population despite the fact that the number of working age people keeps growing.

Jumps in home sales are misleading as well. Yes, an increase in sales or starts is a good sign, but notice how they like to report these things in a percent change from a previous number? Sounds impressive to say something is up 17%. Doesn't sound so good to say something is about a third of what it was 4 years ago. (I just made that number up as an example). Let's say we used to have 100 new home starts a month. Then came 2008 and they dropped to 3 a month. Now they rose 33% to 4 a month. That would be the headline...sales up 33%, bu the reality is that they are still at all time historic lows. Improving? Sure. Good? Not really. Less worse off is not the same as better off.

We have too much debt. That led to the crash in 2008. The solution was to create more debt. Problem solved? No, but in the long run we've made it worse.

In reply to carguy123:

What makes you think that I don't do the proper research before posting? I can take that you don't agree, but twice now you've come very close to making personal attacks on me. The value of homes SOLD in my area was on average down 10 percent last year and 17% since 2008. I had my house appraised last March and it down $50k from what I paid for it 10 years ago and that is after investing $80k into it. That's real numbers my friend.
I never said that what you posted wasn't accurate. I asked for your references. What you posted are averages. That means that some areas are much worse and some much better. You make it sound like everythings great and everyone should start spending money. If I'm grumpy its because I'm $130 in the hole on my house! FYI - I don't take everything I hear or read in the media as the truth. I also don't take everything I read on a message board as the truth. There's more information in this thread to refute what you are saying than there is to support it, but yet you still won't admit that what you said just might not apply to everyone. If you did, we would no longer be discussing it.

carguy123 wrote: I just scrolled a short way back in that link I sent you and here's what I found. BTW, You need to read more than just the headlines.

Listen, debate my position on a subject all you want, but don't make assumptions about me. I do way more research than most. BTW, your long winded post has little to nothing to do with northeast Ohio, which is the only area I've been talking about throughout this entire thread.

carguy123 wrote: So what would be proof? BTW in case you didn't notice this came from the Federal Reserve. Now look at the rest of the data and tell me point by point how things aren't getting better than they were. You can't, things are improving.

I trust the Gov even less than I do the media. And your chart, while showing the trend getting better, also shows that we are still not close to getting back to where we were in 2008 - 4 YEARS AGO! An upswing in anything, while encouraging, does NOT mean things are good.

T.J. wrote: Foreclosures are down because the illegal MERS scam has been stopped. The banks and their robosigners have been caught and banks seem to be content with letting people live in their houses while not paying their mortgages and not foreclose on them. Some of this has to do with the fact that between MERS and robosigning, the banks do not legally have the right to foreclose since they do not hold the deed. Some of this has to do with their accounting and not having to write off a bad loan until they foreclose. Jobless claims are low because there are millions of people who no longer qualify for them and have given up. Unemployment has only gone down because of phony seasonal adjustments and the continual shrinking of the working population despite the fact that the number of working age people keeps growing. Jumps in home sales are misleading as well. Yes, an increase in sales or starts is a good sign, but notice how they like to report these things in a percent change from a previous number? Sounds impressive to say something is up 17%. Doesn't sound so good to say something is about a third of what it was 4 years ago. (I just made that number up as an example). Let's say we used to have 100 new home starts a month. Then came 2008 and they dropped to 3 a month. Now they rose 33% to 4 a month. That would be the headline...sales up 33%, bu the reality is that they are still at all time historic lows. Improving? Sure. Good? Not really. Less worse off is not the same as better off. We have too much debt. That led to the crash in 2008. The solution was to create more debt. Problem solved? No, but in the long run we've made it worse.

This. Absolute truth. It also may explain why carguy's information indicates a good year in the housing market when the construction market (not the Government, the actual construction industry) is forecasting a flat year at best. My company is a tier one supplier to many on and off road heavy equipment manufacturures. The volume of product they buy from us is a direct indicator of how well they are doing. When they buy more of our product, they are selling more machines, and the customers buying these machines are construction companies that build things like houses, garages, commercial buildings, roads, bridges, etc... We're selling more product, but only because we've managed to land new customers. Our main OEMs are still down or flat from the last 3 years. So how are all these new houses getting built?