When is it time to panic

FuzzWuzzy said:

In reply to rob_lewis :

Yep. We're having everyone who's capable of doing so WFH on Monday and/or Friday next week to test if our servers can handle that amount of people.

Our VPN tends to get beat up pretty bad every time we have a situation where a whole lot people work remotely, although I think that is mostly due to us not having enough licenses.  

alfadriver said:

RX Reven' said:

Wallstreet hit the panic button this morning and temporarily halted trading. Currently, the three major indices are down ~6.5%.

The ten-year treasury note hit 0.408% (the 0.93% it got down to last Thursday was a historic low for reference).

Saudi Arabia wouldn’t agree to limit production which sent US oil down 25%. If you have a gas guzzler that you’d like to sell, the next few weeks would be an opportune time.

It's geting to the point on wanting to buy more.  While it may not go back to Jan levels, it will go back up.  Unless everyone dies- and then the money I have there would be useless anyway.

I’m a passive buy and hold investor so I don’t leave a lot of money sitting on the sideline waiting for a low entry point. Having said that, I’ve moved some money into one of my trading accounts and I’m going to buy each of my two daughters 3K of Disney at some point.

I don’t think we’re anywhere near the bottom…

We’ve got to see a significant reduction in new cases reported…we’re going the opposite direction now and as testing ramps up, the reported increase will be more pronounced (although that’s only an artifact, the news will run the numbers 24/7 and perception is reality).

Businesses that involve bringing people together (cruise lines, airlines, hotels, restaurants, movie theaters, stadium’s, etc.) will be slowing down dramatically in the near future.

Even after the turnaround, we’ll have to wait for them to post horrible earnings and provide upbeat future guidance.

Let’s say the worst will be behind us in late Q2 and the earnings hit will be over in late Q3.

If you want to put money in the market soon, I’d recommend Caterpillar (CAT on the NYSE) as many governments (U.S. included) will be announcing massive public works spending in the near future. You could also be looking at construction companies that specialize in big government contracts but they’re all going to need CAT so why not just go right to the bottom line.

I doubt cruise lines will ever fully recover because risk of virus will permanently be baked into their valuations as the new normal.

I’m buying Disney as although their theme park value will forever be adversely affected (see cruise lines), that represents a small part of their business and even before today’s massive sell-off, their P/E ratio was around eighteen which is really cheap for a world class leader. Also, I’m hoping it’ll get my daughters (12 and 15) interested in investing.

eastsideTim said:

FuzzWuzzy said:

In reply to rob_lewis :

Yep. We're having everyone who's capable of doing so WFH on Monday and/or Friday next week to test if our servers can handle that amount of people.

Our VPN tends to get beat up pretty bad every time we have a situation where a whole lot people work remotely, although I think that is mostly due to us not having enough licenses.  

My company is stress testing ours this week just in case. 

eastsideTim said:

Our department VP is big on the whole “teams should all be based in the same location”.  Being the only remote member of my team, it’s been a little nerve wracking.  Maybe this’ll change things a bit.

It's difficult to be the single remote employee on a team, but I prefer co-located teams, too.  When I've had multiple teams, I've tried to avoid your situation by putting all the remote folks on the same team, that way they're figuring out ways to communicate on their own.

-Rob

7 reported cases in Hungary... Still have toilet paper.

In reply to RX Reven' :

Honesty, given Disney's new streaming service, I would not invest with them- as if people en-mass are staying at home, there could be some big jumps in streaming services.... 

(and we are passive, too- just can buy at a discount as I get paychecks)

There's some news baked into todays 2k point drop about an oil price war, too.  

Stocks are on sale. 

got that good ish earlier today. Also, Mandarin oranges were on sale. 

You start that "my hiney's clean" crap and I'm petitioning the mods for a ban.

volvoclearinghouse said:

There's some news baked into todays 2k point drop about an oil price war, too.  

Stocks are on sale. 

Saw an eye-catching quote from a headline mentioning $20 oil barrel prices.

What a lovely time to buy in.

We are supposed to travel to Orlando at the beginning of April. Trying to decide if that is a good idea or not still. Normally I'd just go since my wife and I are in our early 30s and in good health but with her being pregent it gives me pause.

kazoospec said:

You start that "my hiney's clean" crap and I'm petitioning the mods for a ban.

So can someone explain why there was underwear on the floor in one of the commercials?

They all walk around without any clothes

We're supposed to go down to the Gulf Coast at the end of the month for a week. Bonus though: we pretty much intentionally choose our places to go for Spring Break to be places that won't have many people and we can just sit on the porch of the house we're renting and read. I'm not expecting any of this to impact our travel plans.

However, if the local public schools close as some in other places have it will solidly screw the Dancer's non-profit over since they won't be able to do outreach sessions which are what they get grants to do. And if things get bad in the early summer and the City starts closing venues down, it could further mess things up by forcing the cancellation of the usual summer performance (she's already been fretting that the San Francisco Ballet was forced to cancel their upcoming performance run because of the current scare- which is the kind of thing that can cripple or kill a company). 

We're not overly concerned about ourselves health-wise, we're both in pretty good health and have solid immune systems. And we're probably better prepared (well, I am.... so by extension so is she...) for emergencies. In an absolute 'everything breaks down' situation where utilities aren't working, we could always retreat to the cabin with our generator where we could use the well for water while we had gas to run the generator.

I made a grocery store run and stocked up on chocolate chips, Rice Krispies, and mini-marshmallows. If a quarantine happens, I am not getting trapped in my house without a massive supply to make cookies and Rice Krispy treats.

Patrick said:

The thing we're all wondering in the back of our minds is:

 

when does the virus hit our shores in the harbor freight supply chain?

As communities begin to feel the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19), I want to share with you the steps we’re taking at Harbor Freight Tools to help protect the health and safety of our customers and associates, which is always our top priority.

We’re closely monitoring local and national reports on the evolving impact of COVID-19 and, based on guidance from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), the World Health Organization and applicable public health agencies, we’ve developed plans and established a task force that will allow us to respond timely and appropriately.

Our housekeeping and sanitization efforts in our stores have been greatly expanded. We’re frequently disinfecting often-touched surfaces such as door handles, countertops, keypads, restroom surfaces, shopping carts and baskets. We’re asking all of our associates (and we urge everyone) to follow the CDC guidelines to prevent the spread of the infection. 

We feel deeply for those who have been affected. Thankfully, as of now, we’re not aware of any associate contracting COVID-19. But we have implemented guidelines that instruct any associate who may develop symptoms or come into contact with infected individuals to stay home and follow the CDC’s instructions. And impacted associates will be compensated for their missed work hours. 

At this time, all of our stores are open for business during their regular hours to meet the needs of our customers. If we become aware of any condition in any store that would make it unsafe, please rest assured that we’ll close the store until those conditions have been addressed.

Again, the health and safety of our customers and associates are our top priority and we’re committed to doing our part to help keep you safe.  

Thank you,

Eric Smidt
Owner and Founder
Harbor Freight Tools

I've smelled Harbor Freight stores.

I'd be surprised anything could survive in there.

Work called me Saturday morning, so I am getting on a plane in the morning. Not sure if I will be gone till the end of the week or until sometime in May or somewhere in between. Hopefully, I don't end up on a quarantined plane, airport or hotel. This sounds like the plot of some dystopian novel. I better not end up trapped in Detroit for the apocalypse.

In reply to RevRico :

Change "stores" to "planes" and add something about HEPA filters and you've got the email I received individually from Delta, United, and Spirit.  Me, wife, and both kids are flying domestic at the end of this month.

T.J. said:

 I better not end up trapped in Detroit for the apocalypse.

If you do, make your way to Canton.  MonZora needs volunteers!

I have a PRP treatment for both knees scheduled on Thursday at my VA hospital. I got a message today to come early as they have a checkpoint set up and are screening everyone as they arrive on campus.

Elk Grove where I live has cancelled school after a student's family got the virus.   So now all students will have to stay home, and their parent(s) are going to have to stay home with them, which is going to be a big problem soon.  Our two Costco's are out of TP, Paper Towels, and Hand Sanitizer.

we're at 16-17, afaik.

some interesting discussion of the weight of decisions to be made, and the impact to different communities...

I went to Home Depot and stocked up on lumber, and Harbor Freight to grab a few dozen grinding wheels and a 10 lb spool of welding wire.  

If I have to be quarantined at home, I've got projects to work on.  

In reply to volvoclearinghouse :

Thanks to procrastination, I have a few of those lined up, too.  Like my Miata "restoration".

No Time said:

kazoospec said:

You start that "my hiney's clean" crap and I'm petitioning the mods for a ban.

So can someone explain why there was underwear on the floor in one of the commercials?

They all walk around without any clothes

I was also under the impression that they did their business in the woods.