In reply to aircooled :

Well, one thing about "experts" - they don't always agree with each other.  How each of them analyzes a data set isn't always the same.

In other news.  My cold is sending me home to PA a week early and I get to figure out how to work from home. Yay... 

aircooled said:

Harvey said:

....This is a good video to watch. It's an interview Joe Rogan did yesterday with infectious disease expert Michael Osterholm. This guy has spent his whole career chasing down and researching diseases like this and he has been right in the middle of this Covid-19 outbreak research.....

 

Does he KNOW this, or does he suspect this.

If what he is saying is true, then he is contradicting what most every other expert is saying.  If the other experts know this (which would be a reasonable assumption if true) then they are lying.  For what reason would they be lying?

Color me suspicious. (which is a bit sad, but has to be the way you approach things these days)

He is a known expert in the field.

https://www.google.com/search?q=michael+osterholm&safe=active&rlz=1C1GCEA_enUS832US832&sxsrf=ALeKk03ruvKdrgi5L9muelK6CydzpSYoPQ:1584028287182&source=lnms&tbm=nws&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwixh_yapZXoAhUtZN8KHbboDkUQ_AUoAXoECBUQAw

He wrote a book about this very situation occurring.

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0316343692/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_bibl_vppi_i0

Interview on CNN with him about the situation.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/10/opinions/osterholm-coronavirus-interview-bergen/index.html

Basically other experts are throwing things out there to give people something to do, because they are not getting correct information (or any information) from our government. The Trump administration has done nothing right to keep this thing in check. The statistics are completely off base on who is infected, because people cannot get tested.

They should have been setting up special treatment centers for this a month ago.

They should have arranged free testing and test kits.

People are being put under mandatory quarantine and then being charged $3000+ for it.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/03/02/why-are-we-being-charged-surprise-bills-coronavirus-testing-spark-calls-government

infinitenexus said:

Quick correction:  The virus is not airborne.  It is described as being transferable via aerosol droplets, which is essentially someone sneezing on you (or on their hand, then shaking your hand, then you touching your face and boom.)  If it were airborne it would be floating through the air and surviving for long periods of time.  If it reaches that point, we are definitely screwed.

 

This is a good site that keeps up to date statistics from the WHO, CDC, and others.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The guy from the interview I posted, Osterholm says it is airborne and people are highly contagious before they show symptoms.

Just look at my friend's family. 40 people at a party, the person that later tested positive for Covid-19 was asymptomatic. At least 14 people from that party are sick from the virus. My co-worker and his wife who only had second hand exposure to their family members (who were also asymptomatic at the time) are now showing symptoms.

Basically, there is a bunch of misleading bullE36 M3 flying around, because the Trump administration is completely berkeleyed and China is a police state that conceals information that makes them look bad.

Harvey said:

 

He is a known expert in the field.....


....Basically other experts are throwing things out there to give people something to do,....

Yes, but what does he know specifically about THIS virus?

How do we know he isn't the one "throwing things out"?

I am NOT saying he is absolutely wrong, but what is the basis for trusting him over others?

I am not trying to argue with you, just make sure we do not jump to any conclusions.

aircooled said:

Harvey said:

 

He is a known expert in the field.....


....Basically other experts are throwing things out there to give people something to do,....

Yes, but what does he know specifically about THIS virus?

How do we know he isn't the one "throwing things out"?

I am NOT saying he is absolutely wrong, but what is the basis for trusting him over others?

I am not trying to argue with you, just make sure we do not jump to any conclusions.

Maybe you should watch the video and draw your own conclusions. You can choose not to believe him, but when it showed up in my backyard it made more sense to trust him than Trump's CDC.

I have my own opinions about how the administration is handling things.  But, I'm keeping it to myself, in accordance with the boards' rules.  Please do the same, I'd like to keep this thread open.

In reply to Harvey :

The CDC has plenty of info on their site. I've been trying to tell people quit watching the talking heads that are politicizing this and spend just a few minutes researching the CDC, WHO, and NCBI sites.

Harvey said:

 

Maybe you should watch the video and draw your own conclusions. You can choose not to believe him, but when it showed up in my backyard it made more sense to trust him than Trump's CDC.

I just read the transcript of the CNN interview that you linked.  He does NOT say anything about airborn transmission.  He does say

"And what we see with coronavirus is it's probably about an RO of 2 to 2.5". 

If this thing is airborn and as contagious as you are inferring, I would think that number would be a LOT higher and he would at least indicate that it should be higher.

Something does not line up here.  I am desperately trying not to have false fears thrown out.

Regarding the US preparedness for such things.  I think its likely a reasonable assessment, and one reason why this outbreak might be a great learning opportunity for a the potential of a truly deadly outbreak (which hopefully this will not be)

aircooled said:

Harvey said:

 

Maybe you should watch the video and draw your own conclusions. You can choose not to believe him, but when it showed up in my backyard it made more sense to trust him than Trump's CDC.

I just read the transcript of the CNN interview that you linked.  He does NOT say anything about airborn transmission.  He does say

"And what we see with coronavirus is it's probably about an RO of 2 to 2.5". 

If this thing is airborn and as contagious as you are inferring, I would think that number would be a LOT higher and he would at least indicate that it should be higher.

Something does not line up here.  I am desperately trying not to have false fears thrown out.

Regarding the US preparedness for such things.  I think its likely a reasonable assessment, and one reason why this outbreak might be a great learning opportunity for a the potential of a truly deadly outbreak (which hopefully this will not be)

On the Rogan podcast he basically says, "Washing your hands and sanitizer are great for preventing the spread of most diseases, but not this one. All you need is to breath in the air from someone who is infected."

https://youtu.be/cZFhjMQrVts?t=73

z31maniac said:

On the Rogan podcast he basically says, "Washing your hands and sanitizer are great for preventing the spread of most diseases, but not this one. All you need is to breath in the air from someone who is infected."

Hm. From the host of Fear Factor, it seems like there's a crossover here. Somewhere. 

Worse than eating Madegascar hissing cockroaches? Most likely those won't kill you unless you choke on them. Or are allergic. 

or - Joe, in this case, fear IS a factor for you...?

aircooled said:

Regarding the US preparedness for such things.  I think its likely a reasonable assessment, and one reason why this outbreak might be a great learning opportunity for a the potential of a truly deadly outbreak (which hopefully this will not be)

It's not really a learning opportunity because we already know this message.

I forget some of the specifics as it was an interview I was listening to and not an article I read, but in 2018, at a national or international conference, just after Ebola was put to bed an expert in the field of infectious diseases and their spread that worked for the National Security Council's Global Health Unit said that this exact situation was the largest threat to global security that we could face.

The administration shut down that unit the very next day.

There are people that know what to do.  They aren't being listened to and they arent in charge.

OK, watched the video interview.  He says  "in some cases, highly contagious, breathing is all you need to do"

Note, he says "some cases"

From the CDC:

How Flu Spreads

Most experts believe that flu viruses spread mainly by tiny droplets made when people with flu cough, sneeze or talk. These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby. Less often, a person might get flu by touching a surface or object that has flu virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose or possibly their eyes.

As you can see, this sound pretty much identical to the communicability of the flu. 

There appears to be no evidence, even by his statements, that this is more communicable (by method of transfer) than the flu.  The fact that it this behaves a bit different in infection (time frame, onset etc.) which will make is spread more, but I highly suspect (no expert, but if you can find the answer please post it) this is NOT easily spread by air when someone is not showing symptoms. So, what you do to avoid the flu, would be the same as this.

(I apologize for posting so much on this, I just really don't want to go down the wrong information path)

aircooled said:

OK, watched the video interview.  He says  "in some cases, highly contagious, breathing is all you need to do"

Note, he says "some cases"

From the CDC:

How Flu Spreads

Most experts believe that flu viruses spread mainly by tiny droplets made when people with flu cough, sneeze or talk. These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby. Less often, a person might get flu by touching a surface or object that has flu virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose or possibly their eyes.

As you can see, this sound pretty much identical to the communicability of the flu. 

There appears to be no evidence, even by his statements, that this is more communicable (by method of transfer) than the flu.  The fact that it this behaves a bit different in infection (time frame, onset etc.) which will make is spread more, but I highly suspect (no expert, but if you can find the answer please post it) this is NOT easily spread by air when someone is not showing symptoms. So, what you do to avoid the flu, would be the same as this.

I think the real question is, what does Alex Jones think, right? Let me go search ZeroHedge for info as well. 

BRB

Mr_Asa said:

 

...It's not really a learning opportunity because we already know this message....

I absolutely do not disagree with this.

There is nothing like being hit in the head by something to drive the point home though.  If nothing is done after this, you really have to worry. Just look at 9/11.  We KNEW we were vulnerable (people warned etc), but there was just to much inertia in not doing anything about it.. until we got hit in the head.

I do hope they use what we have learned to maybe help the spread of the every year flu.  Maybe, at least, people will be a bit more aware / careful.

Mr_Asa said:

aircooled said:

Regarding the US preparedness for such things.  I think its likely a reasonable assessment, and one reason why this outbreak might be a great learning opportunity for a the potential of a truly deadly outbreak (which hopefully this will not be)

It's not really a learning opportunity because we already know this message.

I forget some of the specifics as it was an interview I was listening to and not an article I read, but in 2018, at a national or international conference, just after Ebola was put to bed an expert in the field of infectious diseases and their spread that worked for the National Security Council's Global Health Unit said that this exact situation was the largest threat to global security that we could face.

The administration shut down that unit the very next day.

 

There are people that know what to do.  They aren't being listened to and they arent in charge.

This ^ 1000

sleepyhead the buffalo said:

I have my own opinions about how the administration is handling things.  But, I'm keeping it to myself, in accordance with the boards' rules.  Please do the same, I'd like to keep this thread open.

Agreed. This shouldn't even be a politically divisive issue but that is where we are. We should all just be humans together and do our best to get through it together.

alfadriver said:

Time to make fun of duke- for overstating the overstating media, doing that for dramatic effect.  Oh, the irony.  

This is the kind of thing I'm talking about:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/world/europe/coronavirus-united-kingdom-national-health-service.html

• NY Times
• March 5, 2020

LONDON — Ventilators in short supply. Intensive care beds already overflowing. Some health workers buying their own face masks or hoods. And if cases of the deadly coronavirus surge in anything like the numbers some experts have predicted, doctors say they would have to consider denying lifesaving care to the frailest patients to prioritize those with better chances of surviving.

And this: https://7news.link/3csNJic

 

7NEWS Sydney

March 3 at 3:35 PM ·

 

Expert's dire coronavirus prediction

An expert has estimated 96,000 Australians could die and billions would be wiped from our economy under a "worst case" coronavirus pandemic scenario.

And this:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-infection-outbreak-worldwide-virus-expert-warning-today-2020-03-02/

CBS News March 2, 2020, 6:30 PM

Coronavirus may infect up to 70% of world's population, expert warns

Boston — The coronavirus death toll now tops 3,000 worldwide, with nearly 90,000 cases. But even those numbers are nothing compared to what could happen in the months ahead.

While none of this stuff is technically incorrect, it is couched in the most attention-grabbing language and presented as if it is the likely outcome.  And these are just 3 examples I found from a few minutes of searching.  This is by far the most prevalent tone of the media response to date.

I would like to know the information that  Angela Merkel's  got to tell the Germans that 60-70%. will get it , 

I must say I trust the Germans  more than what we have been told in the USA.

Be safe and figure out how to live at your home for a week or 2 , 

In reply to Duke :

I know what you are getting at, just thought that it was funny being alarmist of the alarmist... LOL.  

Another amusing thing we have concluded- this virus is going to kill the open office concept.  Yay!!!

So about the shortages (I'm too lazy to go back a few pages)....

It's both good and bad.

Bad for the person who needs the item- which may end up being a lot of people.

But it's also good that people will need to get back to work to satisfy the world demand for your item pretty quickly.  While the downturn will be very much in magnitude as 2008 (if not worse), the financial structure of it is very different.  Instead of having banks being tight with their money- they won't be.  And there will be a pent up demand for stuff.

I could be wrong about that line of thinking, but I really don't see this as permanent or very long term as long as the virus subsides.  

93EXCivic said:

STM317 said:

No place has seen anything close to 50% infection rate though. How long would it take to get to a 50% infection rate? Years? Decades? How much will be learned and applied toward improving the survivability of COVID-19 in that time? China is currently sitting at 56.1 cases per 1 million citizens after 3 months, and the number of new cases has declined sharply. 5-20% of the US population gets the flu each year,  but there are probably a lot of repeat offenders in that group. People that get the flu more often due to age and health concerns. To get to a point where 50% of the population has had COVID-19, could easily take 10 years.

If we extrapolate China's numbers for cases/1 mil of population, we'd have 18,513 people contract the virus in the US. 1% mortality rate means 185 deaths over the next 3 months if the rate of infection and mortality both follow the same pattern as China.

So far, the US is seeing just 4.1 cases per 1 million citizens, but that's expected to climb as more testing kits become available, and some suspected cases are confirmed.

But China took measures that probably are not possible in the US so I am not sure that China is a great thing to base our thoughts around as far as how transmissable the virus is. I also feel like 50% is probably overstating it but using flu here is bad comparison as there is a flu shot which a not insignificant part of the population has. Also we have some antibodies built up from previous exposures to the flu.

But even if it is 20% and it seems in general about 20% of cases need more care that could quickly overwhelm our health care system. We have even less spare beds and respirators then Italy so a heavy localized breakout could be very bad.

Yeah, you could also say that China has a higher percentage of the population that smokes, that their government didn't communicate much if anything with their citizens until the situation was dire, and that they tend to have much higher population density than the US. Which all makes it a perfect breeding ground for a virus like this. My crystal ball is no better than anyone else's, but I'd bet that it's not quite as bad in the US.

If we look at Hubei province specifically, as basically the worst case scenario and saw similar numbers in the US this is what it would look like (I think you actually did this math once already in one of these virus threads):

According to the WHO's most recent update on the virus, (sorry it's a PDF) Hubei province has a population of 59170000 people. There have been 67707 confirmed cases, with 2986 of those resulting in death. That means that 4.4% of those infected in Hubei died (as ground zero it took time to understand what was occurring and react, therefore has a mortality rate 1% higher than the overall rate of 3.4%). And it means that 0.11% of the population was a confirmed case, and 0.005% of the population died.

Extrapolate those numbers to the US and we'd have 363,000 confirmed cases and 16,500 deaths in 3 months. As you noted when you did similar math, that's about average for a flu season. Regardless of how you feel the US gov has responded to this situation, they've had a 3 month head start that China didn't get where they've known about this and had time for the entire international community to learn, react, and plan. I think that fact, coupled with the lower population density, likely means that the US won't be impacted as badly as Hubei has been. I'm not saying that it shouldn't be taken seriously, and I'm happy that so many businesses seem to be acting proactively to try and head the situation off. But it's easy to lose perspective and jump to conclusions when we read headlines about more and more infections, closures, and people claiming 50+ percent of the population will get it. That might eventually be true, but it's not going to happen in the next couple of months.

Some people are going to get sick. Some of those will die. It's not going to be fun, but I'm not seeing anything that amounts to more concern than washing your hands, avoiding large gatherings, and being sensible about avoiding sick people, or avoiding all contact if you yourself are sick.

aircooled said:

Harvey said:

 

Maybe you should watch the video and draw your own conclusions. You can choose not to believe him, but when it showed up in my backyard it made more sense to trust him than Trump's CDC.

I just read the transcript of the CNN interview that you linked.  He does NOT say anything about airborn transmission.  He does say

"And what we see with coronavirus is it's probably about an RO of 2 to 2.5". 

If this thing is airborn and as contagious as you are inferring, I would think that number would be a LOT higher and he would at least indicate that it should be higher.

Something does not line up here.  I am desperately trying not to have false fears thrown out.

Regarding the US preparedness for such things.  I think its likely a reasonable assessment, and one reason why this outbreak might be a great learning opportunity for a the potential of a truly deadly outbreak (which hopefully this will not be)

Did you read all the way to the end?

There are some who have said that this virus is only transmitted from the hand to the face and that's simply not true. We have compelling data on influenza transmission, which this is just like the coronavirus in terms of ongoing transmission. And, frankly, hand washing may play some role in this, but not nearly as much as people think. It's all about the air and the air you're breathing

I don't think the CDC disagrees on this point.

 

Practice respiratory hygiene

Make sure you, and the people around you, follow good respiratory hygiene. This means covering your mouth and nose with your bent elbow or tissue when you cough or sneeze. Then dispose of the used tissue immediately.

Why? Droplets spread virus. By following good respiratory hygiene you protect the people around you from viruses such as cold, flu and COVID-19.

The only point that might not be completely specific is how contagious people are before they actually start showing symptoms and how that affects aerosolized transmission.

https://youtu.be/E3URhJx0NSw?t=470

In this portion of the video he goes into how they recently sampled people right after they got symptoms and they had a huge viral load already.

For those of you that are (or will be soon) WFH, may I present....

Working From Home During A Global Pandemic Bingo

-Rob

As I've been quarantined from work due to a cold, I have to laugh or I would be annoyed...