When is it time to panic

Knurled. said:

TheGloriousW said:

In reply to STM317 :

We could have done better. Just because a classmate got a D doesn't mean a C is something to be proud about.

 

I think a better marker than the rate of survival is rate of infection. The survival rate in the US hasn't been stellar so far.

We're also not aggressively testing either, are we?  The infection rate may be much higher than is reported because we aren't able to test very much.

Oh for sure. We have 5 confirmed cases in CT. That might make you think it's not that serious, except for the part where people that are sick can't get a coronavirus test. My friend's family has definitely got at least 20 people infected with it (see my earlier posts).

STM317 said:

In reply to TheGloriousW :

Right, but if there's a pop quiz that nobody saw coming, and everybody in the class gets Cs or worse, then it was a pretty damn hard pop quiz. Has anybody else been better prepared for this? Honest question because I'm really not bothered enough to follow how each country has responded to this. I'm not suggesting that I feel we couldn't be more prepared, just that I don't think anybody else really has been either. It seems like it's pretty much caught every first world country off guard based on what I've seen.

They could've locked down borders, and prevented all international travel, and not let anybody back into the country for a month I guess, but then you'd have people complaining that it was a draconian overreaction that was un-American and repressing freedoms and stuff. You can't make everybody happy.

I think the issue a lot of people are having is that the testing should have been ready much sooner. We had at least a couple months of warning signs and Singapore, South Korea and Japan all managed to aggressively contain it. https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/12/814522489/singapore-wins-praise-for-its-covid-19-strategy-the-u-s-does-not

Note to the people that need supplies- a lot seem to have forgotten about restaurant suppliers. Plenty of everything at Gordon food service when I was there over the weeke d. 

Governor DeWine just closed schools for three weeks in Ohio. And honestly, I'm glad they did it now. 

Now to create a bunch of lesson plans via Google Classrooms...

In reply to STM317 :

??? This has been in the news since December. Where is the surprise part?

I do not care how anyone else has done.

Pop quizzes are usually about E36 M3 the teacher has been teaching not some foreign topic.

So, is the scare going to shut down grocery stores and fast food? What else? I cannot believe that this is the societal breakdown the preppers are waiting for. Or am i wrong? Should i actually be preparing for a few weeks of isolation in my house in my rural little town?

Also, since i trust here more than anywhere, what are the symptoms and treatment for this? Just nornal flu with a higher mortality rate?

the cdc says....

I will take a guess at your question: Shutdown of general services seems unlikely, that would require a very large percentage of the population to get it at the same time (at least within a few days), which, at this point, seems highly unlikely.

As for symptoms, that is pretty well documented.   Fever, Cough, Shortness of breath.   Similar to the common flu, but seems to be a bit more sever in terms of fever and respiratory (breath).

As for effect: It SEEMS to be VERY relative to you age and general health (similar to the flu).  Young seem to have very little effect (maybe none for very young?).  Healthy people have described it as a mild cold or 3 day flu.  Older, or more compromised (especially respiratory or immune system issues) can be killed by it, but it seems to be a bit of a "last straw" kind of thing for them.  Smoking is likely a risk factor. (these effects still seem to be a bit less then fully defined at this point though)

Dusterbd13-michael said:

So, is the scare going to shut down grocery stores and fast food? What else? I cannot believe that this is the societal breakdown the preppers are waiting for. Or am i wrong? Should i actually be preparing for a few weeks of isolation in my house in my rural little town?

Also, since i trust here more than anywhere, what are the symptoms and treatment for this? Just nornal flu with a higher mortality rate?

I think the reason to have goods is in case one you get it and have to self-quarantine and two so you don't have to be around people as much where disease might get spread.

For those of you northerns who've dealt with blizzards and coasters who've dealt with hurricanes, what should you honestly stock up on for "just in case"?  We've been joking about toilet paper and I don't think water will be critical because the virus won't affect plumbing like a blizzard or hurricane could, but I don't know what to think about making sure I have other than double what I would normally buy at the grocery store (which seems like overkill).

I already have SWMBO checking into 90 supplies of her medication and will make sure my pups have a little extra food.  I only ask becuase with companies going to WFH policies, what are the chances of retailers doing the same?

-Rob

Jordan Rimpela said:

Governor DeWine just closed schools for three weeks in Ohio. And honestly, I'm glad they did it now. 

Now to create a bunch of lesson plans via Google Classrooms...

All meeting of more than 100 people? Sheesh, that's going to cause some havoc

Honestly, theres not much talk about what to have on hand IF YOU ACTUALLY GET the virus..

Looks like tylonel, ibprufen, and cough syrup (and I am adding flonase). Humidifier?  Vicks vaporub?  Basically palliative care of a respitory situation. 

  Very easy to get a good supply of those without it looking like you are a doomsday prepper. Hell with a toddler I have a good supply of all that on hand anyways. 

*edit* I wonder if this is the excuse i needed to get an oxy acetiline setup to have an oxygen tank on hand...  hmmm

Karacticus said:

If toilet paper is going to be in such sort supply, would newspaper subscriptions increase?  

I mean, most of the stuff I get in the mail would suffice in a pinch, but newsprint would be slightly more comfortable.  

Fun fact.....I picked up a side gig delivering newspapers. I bring home a minimum of 20 a day. 

My wife has already thought of this eventuality

John Welsh said:

I think here in Ohio they will try to make it through Friday with the Public Schools and then not re-open for Monday.  

Our school districts in our county made a statement that they are all open and will make the decision to close collectively with the guidance of the county health dept.  However, one school district that straddles the line with my county and the next county over has stated that no kids in for Friday as teachers only report and then meet for Virus planning and preparation.  

Effective immediately, no spectators at school sports.  School play, etc postponed.  

I wrote the above yesterday at the top of page 16.  Now, today we hear that Monday will be the last day of school in Ohio.  

It seems that schools MUST close by the end of Monday but I bet there is nothing stopping local districts to choose to close sooner.  I predict that here, they never open Monday. 

Dusterbd13-michael said:

So, is the scare going to shut down grocery stores and fast food? What else? I cannot believe that this is the societal breakdown the preppers are waiting for. Or am i wrong? Should i actually be preparing for a few weeks of isolation in my house in my rural little town?

Also, since i trust here more than anywhere, what are the symptoms and treatment for this? Just nornal flu with a higher mortality rate?

The virus isn't the problem imho.....it's the people.

Walmart was out of a whoooollllleee bunch of stuff when I just went. Extra supplies might not be a bad idea

As a multi-time hurricane recipient, here's how we prep:

1. Relax, the world isn't ending, it's just getting smaller for a few days or weeks. 

2. Stop googling. Sit down at the table. Make a list of what you'll need. You probably already have most of it, but you need to inventory it and put it all in an easily accessible place. 

3. What goes on the list? Easy: Pretend you have to keep your front door locked for two weeks. What happens tomorrow? What do you do? What do you eat? Can you clean yourself? Can you keep yourself entertained? Can you medicate as necessary? 

Sit down and pretend your door will be locked for two weeks, and you'll have a very complete list very quickly. Hurricanes add other layers, requiring you be able to quickly and safely change your location if necessary, make your own power, etc. that this virus doesn't add. 

This is definitely the excuse you need to get an acetiline torch.  And a dog like this;

In reply to Tom Suddard :

This is good advice. We do it about the same but it's a snowstorm we worry about

Thanks, Tim. I'll state I'm not freaking out, just thinking about the things (grocery stores) that I might not have access to. Plus, I figure with this group, there are a few of those "gotcha" items that people don't think of day to day. 
 

Sadly, I was planning on a grocery run this weekend, and I hope our shelves aren't empty. 
 

-Rob

Thanks! One thing I forgot to mention is that your pets count, too, and they don't have thumbs to make their own lists. We keep spare cat food and litter in the same bin as our other emergency supplies, because the last thing I want to deal with during an emergency is a hungry poop-covered cat on top of everything else.

Also, ramp up your house cleaning/laundry/dishes/etc. You don't want to be caught by whatever emergency is coming and have no clean dishes or clothes to wear. This applies more to hurricanes than to this situation, but you're not going to want to be folding shirts while you have a 100 degree fever. 

In reference to transmission of the virus.  There does not appear to be any reason to believe it is not the same as the flu.  

If you saw my posts above, you will note I was concerned the fact that it can be transmitted via the air was potentially over stated.  It clearly can, but the concept of "breathing the same air" could create more concern than needed.  I had the "normal" flu (?) a month ago, and was able to stay in the same house, and bedroom as my wife, and with good containment protocols did not get her (or another in the house) sick.  There is also a case of one of the cruise ship patients that stayed in a small stateroom with his wife the entire time, and she did not get sick.  I am sure they were careful also.

My guess (please feel free to interpret yourself): It is highly unlikely to get transmission from just being near an infected person that is breathing (unless you are REALLY close).  If they are coughing, higher, if they are sneezing, WAY higher.  Still avoidable though.  This of course is a great reason to use some sort of cough rag, towel or handkerchief.

Here are the highlights and link to a good article on the subject:

Respiratory transmission depends upon the production of aerosols that contain virus particles. Speaking, singing, and normal breathing all produce aerosols, while coughing and sneezing lead to more forceful expulsion. While coughing may produce several hundred droplets, a good sneeze can generate up to 20,ooo. Aerosolized particles produced by these activities are of different sizes. The largest droplets fall to the ground within a few meters and will transmit an infection only to those in the immediate vicinity. Other droplets travel a distance determined by their size. Those droplets 1-4 microns in diameter are called ‘droplet nuclei’; these remain suspended in the air for very long periods and may not only travel long distances, but can reach the lower respiratory tract. Inhalation of droplets and droplet nuclei places virus in the upper respiratory tract, where it may initiate infection.

Here is an example noted of transmission (accidental experiment).  One thing that is missing in this description though is at what stage the infected passenger was in (e.g. just infected but not showing symptoms, coughing, or sneezing)

The importance of aerosol transmission is illustrated by an outbreak of influenza aboard a commercial airplane in the late 1970s. The plane, carrying 54 persons, was delayed on the ground for three hours, during which time the ventilation system was not functional. Most of the travelers remained on board. Within 72 hours, nearly 75% of the passengers developed influenza. The source of the infection was a single person on the airplane with influenza.

http://www.virology.ws/2009/04/29/influenza-virus-transmission/

They also have an interesting link to some studies regarding humidity: 

They found that transmission of infection was most efficient when the humidity was 20-35%; it was blocked at 80% humidity. The authors concluded that conditions found during winter, low temperature and humidity, favor spread of the infection. Lower humidity favors virion stability and smaller virus-laden droplets, which have a better chance to travel longer distances.

Another group re-analyzed Palese’s data and found that relative humidity explains only a small amount of the variability in influenza virus transmission and survival – 12% and 36%, respectively. When they converted the measurements of moisture to absolute humidity, the results were striking: 50% of the variability in transmission and 90% of the variability in survival could be explained by absolute humidity.

The conclusion of both papers is the same: humidification of indoor air during the winter might be an effective means of decreasing influenza virus spread. 

http://www.virology.ws/2009/02/19/seasonality-of-influenza-revisited/

Think of what you need if you camping for 2 weeks....

Here in Earthquake country they tell you to have water , not sure thats needed in this case , 

and just because , a hand operated can opener is good to have in the house and your car.....

In reply to Apexcarver :

Please don't breathe the oxygen you get from a welding supply house!!

Jordan Rimpela said:

Governor DeWine just closed schools for three weeks in Ohio. And honestly, I'm glad they did it now. 

Now to create a bunch of lesson plans via Google Classrooms...

And within 5 seconds, a certain someone was whining about how that is ridiculous, it's just a cold, who cares?

They just closed Disneyland CNN report