Catatafish said:
I'm not sure an encroaching virus with a 2% mortality rate is something to be as flippantly dismissed as some of y'all. If 2% of the people you know died tomorrow would it still be a joke?
It's 2% of the people who contract the disease, not 2% of the population at large.
I'm flippant because the really isn't a goddam thing I can do about it, other than wash my hands and quit picking my nose.
Duke said:Catatafish said:
I'm not sure an encroaching virus with a 2% mortality rate is something to be as flippantly dismissed as some of y'all. If 2% of the people you know died tomorrow would it still be a joke?
It's 2% of the people who contract the disease, not 2% of the population at large.
Sure, but who told you that you or somebody you know can't get it? China, arguably the country with the most control over their citizens on Earth can't control the spread of the disease. Have you been successful in never getting a cold?
Streetwiseguy said:I'm flippant because the really isn't a goddam thing I can do about it, other than wash my hands and quit picking my nose.
Ideally you would have enough food and supplies to self quarentine or wait out the possible shortages, which was more the intentions of this thread. Obviously if China can't control it neither can any of us, but that doesn't mean we are helpless and have zero personal responsibility.
Catatafish said:Duke said:Catatafish said:
I'm not sure an encroaching virus with a 2% mortality rate is something to be as flippantly dismissed as some of y'all. If 2% of the people you know died tomorrow would it still be a joke?
It's 2% of the people who contract the disease, not 2% of the population at large.
Sure, but who told you that you or somebody you know can't get it? China, arguably the country with the most control over their citizens on Earth can't control the spread of the disease. Have you been successful in never getting a cold?
....
Uh....
So that would be the infection rate that you're talking about there. You honestly think that every single person on planet Earth is going to catch this virus? I think that might be a bit of an overreach.
Also, that's a bit of a blended number. In China, the death rate for no-preexisting conditions is under 1%. And the rate for the various age segments under 50 are all under 1% each. 80 and older goes to 14.8%.
Granted, that's if we believe the numbers coming out of China.
But even if you don't believe them, assuming a 100% infection rate is kinda extreme.
NickD said:I'm just really disappointed it took until page 3 to get a Hitchhiker's Guide reference.
You think THAT's bad? No one on either thread made any reference to "Station 11"!
Guys at work are already talking about the virus quarantine in Austria (12 people, close to Italy). I get the feeling I'll see some empty shelves when I go grocery shopping this weekend.
Good times.
Not a day goes by that I'm not reminded we're all descendants of the Golgafrinchams.
In reply to wae :
100% infection rate is certainly an overreach, but i'd be willing to bet that everyone you know has had the flu or a cold at one point in their lives.
Iran's mortality rate is 14% right now.
In reply to Catatafish :
South Korea's mortality rate is 1%. I wouldn't put too much stock in the Iranian mortality rate. I would bet it holds more in line with others just that the less serious cases have not been caught by the medical professionals yet. Also if you don't trust China's numbers why would you trust Iranian's?
Catatafish said:In reply to wae :
100% infection rate is certainly an overreach, but i'd be willing to bet that everyone you know has had the flu or a cold at one point in their lives.
Iran's mortality rate is 14% right now.
Everyone has NOT had influenza. A cold? Sure. The same cold? No.
Iran's healthcare system is far below China or the United States. Not really an apt comparison point for us.
RevRico said:Shut off the tv, step away from social media, and just relax.
I feel this bears repeating.
In reply to RevRico :
Truly great advice.....
3m is on national backorder for masks and my walls are empty.....
In reply to Catatafish :
Better than giving yourself a panic attack over another media freak out.
RevRico said:RevRico said:Shut off the tv, step away from social media, and just relax.
I feel this bears repeating.
You know who can't give me the Corona virus? The people in my headset. You know who are the only ones I talk to?
China's population is around 1.38 Billion.
According to the latest report form the WHO (https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/) There have been just over 78k confirmed cases of COVID-19 infection in China, and of those 78k cases, 2718 have died. That means that 0.0056% of the Chinese population has a confirmed case, and of those confirmed cases, 3.5% have died. Or 0.00019% of the total population has been killed by the virus.
If we extrapolate those numbers to the much smaller US population, you'd have 18,312 people infected, and 640 deaths over a 3 month period, with most of those deaths coming from people with other pre-existing health concerns. Statistically, that would be considered a very light flu season.
If you don't trust China's numbers, that's fine but if they're remotely close to accurate it would be an almost un-noticeable increase in flu cases without digging into the data.
Catatafish said:Iran's mortality rate is 14% right now.
Well, in aggregate that’s accurate but the numbers actually break down to…
100% morbidity among identified protestors.
2% morbidity among the capitulating population.
See also Hong Kong
Oh, and please everyone, don’t start in with the conspiracy theory tropes, I’m joking.
RevRico said:In reply to Catatafish :
Better than giving yourself a panic attack over another media freak out.
Again not panicking. Actually I have a months worth of food, enough money to pay my bills indefinitely, and am very unlikely to be affected seriously by the virus. I have no need to panic because I am PREPARED.
But go ahead and quote yourself again in a couple pages, it's sooooo helpful.
In reply to Catatafish :
So, I guess the answer to this thread is, never? Always? 42?
In reply to Catatafish :
I will continue to do so until people realize fear leads to ratings and that's all tv stations care about, news or otherwise. Goes doubly so for social media.
A lie can make it around the world before the truth even gets it's shoes on.
The time to panic, your preferred words even in the thread title, is when people start dying in the streets. Like they did with H1n1, avian flu, Ebola, sars, mersa, etc. Oh wait, that never happened despite all the chicken little talking heads on tv calling for plasticing yourself into the house because the end of the world is coming and we're all gonna die painful expensive deaths in ICU rooms.
The numbers don't lie, this is barely a problem, affecting such a minute segment of the population that it really won't even make a statistical difference in year end death figures. The old, young, and sick, otherwise known as the most vulnerable population in any group of pale who are always affected the worst by things because their health already compromised.
But it sure does make for great ratings, stock manipulation, and price gouging opportunities.
Now if it mutates and people start bleeding their organs out of their eyes, sure, panic, barricade, freak out. If your immune system is already compromised, take some basic precautions, don't travel to affected countries, wash your hands often, and just use common sense.
And just to answer an earlier question, if 2% of the people I know and care about died, it would be less than 0.25% of a person. So a stroke or mild heart attack basically.
In reply to 06HHR :
Pretty sure the answer is always Miata.
It's for sure not dig your head in the sand and hope nothing bad happens.
RevRico said:In reply to Catatafish :
I will continue to do so until people realize fear leads to ratings and that's all tv stations care about, news or otherwise. Goes doubly so for social media.
A lie can make it around the world before the truth even gets it's shoes on.
The time to panic, your preferred words even in the thread title, is when people start dying in the streets. Like they did with H1n1, avian flu, Ebola, sars, mersa, etc. Oh wait, that never happened despite all the chicken little talking heads on tv calling for plasticing yourself into the house because the end of the world is coming and we're all gonna die painful expensive deaths in ICU rooms.
The numbers don't lie, this is barely a problem, affecting such a minute segment of the population that it really won't even make a statistical difference in year end death figures. The old, young, and sick, otherwise known as the most vulnerable population in any group of pale who are always affected the worst by things because their health already compromised.
But it sure does make for great ratings, stock manipulation, and price gouging opportunities.
Now if it mutates and people start bleeding their organs out of their eyes, sure, panic, barricade, freak out. If your immune system is already compromised, take some basic precautions, don't travel to affected countries, wash your hands often, and just use common sense.
This is a much better, helpful, and nuanced position, thank you.
Catatafish said:In reply to wae :
100% infection rate is certainly an overreach, but i'd be willing to bet that everyone you know has had the flu or a cold at one point in their lives.
Iran's mortality rate is 14% right now.
So, er, uh...
There's no such singular thing as "the flu". There are a number of strains of influenza, some of which have higher rates of infection and of death than others. There is also not a "the cold". There are a whole collection of strains of rhinovirus of varying severity. Also, the death rate of the strains of rhinovirus are lower and that's part of why the rate of infection can be so high - dead hosts don't spread things as well as ones that walk around. In fact, there isn't THE coronavirus. COVID-19 is one of many strains of coronavirus, one of which you might have heard of in the past: SARS.
Look, I'm not going to tell you how to live your life - you are free to do you. But when you ask "when should we panic", don't be surprised when you get an answer that doesn't fit your worldview. Personally, I don't think we should ever panic. We should make reasonable preparations based on our own solid judgment and information from trusted and qualified sources. But panic is what pulls the bottom out of the DJIA and makes people do things that don't make sense. There is a whole range of attitudes towards risk management between "I have a month's worth of food in my basement" and "I have my head in the sand". I don't think anyone here is ignoring that COVID-19 is something to be taken seriously. Prior history is not a guarantee of future results, but we have seen this movie before and it usually fizzles out.
In reply to RevRico :
In basic answer to the original question: I'll panic when I can see smoke on all 4 horizons, the lights don't stop flickering, and the background noise is semi-distant gunfire and/or screaming.
And not until then. In fact - since I am in generally decent health and not immunocompromised - I won't even be concerned until that point.
Different perspective.
It might get serious. Nobody's sure yet what the true incubation/infection/transmission period is. I think the CDC is probably trying to be "better safe than sorry" in this case. I'll relate it to hurricanes. Anytime a hurricane is coming, NOAA tries to predict as best they can, but keep it broad enough to be as safe as possible. Sometimes it can be catastrophic, others just peter out. When it doesn't turn out to be as bad, or turns towards something else, people moan and groan about it being overblown (no pun intended) and that it's just fear mongering. However, when it IS bad, you don't hear as much about people not being warned because the warnings were broad enough that it covered for that possibility.
I think it's OK to be concerned and I think it's OK to not be worried about it. I'm not at the moment, but that's because I just don't have mental cycles right not to think about it. If it makes someone feel safer to stock up on supplies, fine. If it turns out to be nothing, no real harm. If it turns out to turn into the next zombie apocalypse, they'll be better prepared......
-Rob
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