Boost_Crazy said:In reply to Duke :
burying our unborn generations of kids and grandkids under a mountain of debt they had no choice in accepting.
Which is FYIGM (I had to look that up) on a grand scale.
Yeah, and this happens at least once or twice a generation. The acceptable reasons to "mortgage our kids future" appear to be wars and tax cuts. I won't say anymore lest this thread become more political than it already has.
When the Fed stops printing money, to include raising interest rates and ending "quantitative easing" (god I hate that term....it would have stopped already if it had been CORRECTLY named "free money handouts, but only to the largest banks on wallstreet"). All the news stories, for or against, focus on the $1.5T plan (over ten years, so 150B/year) in Congress. I wish equal attention were paid to the $1.44T EVERY year by the Fed in asset purchases.
Burying our kids under a mountain of debt? They're burying everyone today!
And yes, I know stopping the ride of free money is gonna hurt for a bit. It's supposed to. Like a hangover, it's a reminder that drunken (spending) binges have consequences.
In reply to 06HHR (Forum Supporter) :
Boost_Crazy said:In reply to Duke :
burying our unborn generations of kids and grandkids under a mountain of debt they had no choice in accepting.
Which is FYIGM (I had to look that up) on a grand scale.
Yeah, and this happens at least once or twice a generation. The acceptable reasons to "mortgage our kids future" appear to be wars and tax cuts. I won't say anymore lest this thread become more political than it already has.
And we are back to either/or again. I think we have done a pretty good job of keeping politics out of this, your post above excluded. I haven't seen much opinion about this program over that or the validity of any programs in general, just that government spends more than is necessary regardless of the program. This is a universal problem, regardless of politics.
US Household debt reaches all time high
More expensive homes and vehicles mean more debt load, but forebearance/forgiveness programs are still impacting the situation as well (noticeable drop after Q1 '20).
Overall, things could be worse. Debt is increasing, but primarily among those with the highest credit scores. It will be interesting to see this chart in another 12-18 months to see how much of this debt is delinquent in some form after the impacts of forbearance subside.
CPI up 6.2% YoY. Largest increase in 30 years.
Higher prices more than offset increased wages for workers, so buying power is down vs last month
STM317 said:CPI up 6.2% YoY. Largest increase in 30 years.
Higher prices more than offset increased wages for workers, so buying power is down vs last month
And inflation not measured by the CPI - which includes quite a lot of important, expensive items - is at least twice that.
The spending bills already passed have caused serious issues throughout the construction industry. This new infrastructure bill is going to make it a complete nightmare.
Duke said:STM317 said:CPI up 6.2% YoY. Largest increase in 30 years.
Higher prices more than offset increased wages for workers, so buying power is down vs last month
And inflation not measured by the CPI - which includes quite a lot of important, expensive items - is at least twice that.
The spending bills already passed have caused serious issues throughout the construction industry. This new infrastructure bill is going to make it a complete nightmare.
I don't get it. Fixing stuff is bad for the construction industry??
Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) said:Duke said:STM317 said:CPI up 6.2% YoY. Largest increase in 30 years.
Higher prices more than offset increased wages for workers, so buying power is down vs last month
And inflation not measured by the CPI - which includes quite a lot of important, expensive items - is at least twice that.
The spending bills already passed have caused serious issues throughout the construction industry. This new infrastructure bill is going to make it a complete nightmare.
I don't get it. Fixing stuff is bad for the construction industry??
Yes, it absolutely is, when you suddenly dump trillions of newly-printed dollars into it.
Champagne is good when you drink it by the glassfull, or maybe bottle. Not so great when you get a 50-gallon barrel of it poured down your throat.
That's really not so difficult to understand.
Duke said:Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) said:Duke said:STM317 said:CPI up 6.2% YoY. Largest increase in 30 years.
Higher prices more than offset increased wages for workers, so buying power is down vs last month
And inflation not measured by the CPI - which includes quite a lot of important, expensive items - is at least twice that.
The spending bills already passed have caused serious issues throughout the construction industry. This new infrastructure bill is going to make it a complete nightmare.
I don't get it. Fixing stuff is bad for the construction industry??
Yes, it absolutely is, when you suddenly dump trillions of newly-printed dollars into it.
Champagne is good when you drink it by the glassfull, or maybe bottle. Not so great when you get a 50-gallon barrel of it poured down your throat.
That's really not so difficult to understand.
You must be drinking something.
This thread is getting way too political.
I am not sure how 150 billion per year over ten years is plural trillions.
Pete. (l33t FS) said:I am not sure how 150 billion per year over ten years is plural trillions.
Try doing double entry accounting after drinking a few bottles of champagne.
Pete. (l33t FS) said:I am not sure how 150 billion per year over ten years is plural trillions.
As a construction industry professional, I'm telling you facts, not political opinions:
Thanks to the existing CARES Act and ESSER infrastructure spending programs, construction costs are up anywhere from 20% across the board to 800% for specific kinds of items. Delivery lead times have gone up anywhere from 100% to 1000%. And that was before all the subsequent supply chain issues came into play. Now it's just going to be even worse.
This is going to remain true until every single dollar of those existing programs is spent. And just when it might have started to return to normal, they're going to turn the money hose on again. Every year for 10 years. If you don't think that will affect the prices the general public pays for everything, every day, you're delusional.
And if you think that is "too political", berking bite me. I'm out. Enjoy your 1970s-style runaway inflation.
In reply to Duke :
"Berking Bite me??" Wow. Have you spoken to a therapist about your anger problem? Or maybe you could just drink one of those bottles of champagne.
Is the construction necessary? During World War II the government consumed so much that consumer items were rationed. This is nothing new. What could we cut out? I'm not really against a line item veto. What is getting wasted vs. what is necessary? Our infrastructure is falling apart. I'm sure that at the Champlain Towers Homeowners Association meetings in Florida there were a lot of angry people screaming about how much their assessments were going to go up, how hard it will be to sell their units now and and wanting to know if all of this work was really necessary. And a lot of them were on fixed incomes.
I don't see how anyone could argue that the government isn't crowding out the private sector and that's a bad thing...nobody spends money as efficiently as the person that worked their a$$ off earning it.
This thread has been an exercise in extremes...blind giving vs. berk um'.
As the economist Art Laffer famously said "not all curves are a straight line" meaning that too little government = bad...too much government = bad...the best level is somewhere in the middle but right now, we're wildly, wildly in the too much zone based on historical levels and we're planning on cranking the dial to eleven.
I love all you guys but math is math (see graph above).
Transportation, i.e. roads and bridges, is only 1.7% of the pie. Isn't that infrastructure?
We spend a lot more on health care and pensions.
It's not pretty when bridges collapse.
So the bills did what they were supposed to do and increased demand.
And due to constrained supply the prices went up on materials?
Yell at clouds much?
Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) said:Transportation, i.e. roads and bridges, is only 1.7% of the pie. Isn't that infrastructure?
We spend a lot more on health care and pensions.
It's not pretty when bridges collapse.
Hi Snowdoggie,
I'm not arguing with you at all.
First, we decide what percent of GDP is best for the government to spend (say 25%) and then we decide how to best slice up the pie.
Basically, the same way responsible adults work out a budget should just be scaled up to the government level.
Doing it this way would create a shared fate...crowding out the private sector would reduce GDP which would dollar for dollar reduce what the government could spend...politicians get fired when they don't spend money on their constituents so they'd be forced to recognize the Laffer curve and hit the sweet spot.
I think there is a difference between fixing the system and "just making the numbers work". If you have an expensive road system and some bridges need to be repaired or they will collapse, they need to be fixed NOW. You borrow the money. Spend more than 35%. Cut something else that isn't so important. Whatever. This is the Champlin Towers pool deck scenario. Shutting down a major freeway because a bridge collapsed and now trucks can't get through is a problem that affects the private sector. Privately owned trucks that are destroyed with the bridge collapses is a private sector problem.
Building new roads in an area that just got hit hard by an increase in population should be a priority too. How much more does it cost to pay for a truck and a driver stuck in traffic for a few hours. How many hours are wasted commuting in traffic. What is the cost of so many people being late for work. Those costs are real, but not reflected on your charts.
Inflation? Not stopping today:
But the big man is making it a "top priority" so I know it's all good:
In reply to Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) :
I'm sorry but I'm convinced that there is an optimal level of government spending as a function of GDP...I threw out 25% but obviously, nobody knows what it is and it probably isn't even a static number anyway.
What we do know is that we're way, way above charted territory and that's a dangerous place to be with countless unintended consequences.
If we don't have the money today, we're surely not going to have it tomorrow since more revenue will be forfeited to servicing the debt.
I know it's painful but there really is a "sweet spot" and if government spending relative to GDP is above or below that level, we will be worse off over the long haul...of your suggestions, I'd opt for cutting other things.
Anyway, I admire how civil this thread has been for the most part and I'll cool my jets as I don't want to antagonize anyone.
We really are going to need more construction workers and materials before the cost of housing goes down. Train more construction workers in high school. Let more people in from Mexico and Honduras to work construction. Maybe try some new materials for home construction. Prefabricated houses?
We may need change to the supply chain to increase car production. More chip production in the US. That takes lots of money. Maybe the auto manufactures need to get into the chip business. We really need to take a serious look at the supply chain. Depending on other countries to provide for the construction of our military vehicles is a bad idea on a long term basis.
High gas prices are a supply/demand problem. Also a foreign policy problem with OPEC countries. The current administration has no friends in Saudi Arabia today. Remember Bandar Bush? We need to keep shale oil production going, maybe a few pipelines have to be built. We can't convert to EVs that quickly. But infrastructure has to be build for charging stations at the same time we look for more shale oil. We need to walk and chew gum at the same time. We need to work on all possibilities here unless you want to go through a rough patch where transportation gets to be expensive and the average guy is going to take it on the chin. We need a plan. A complex plan.
Just cutting the government for ideological reasons won't fix the problem. If anything, the antagonism between private industry and government needs to go away.
In reply to STM317 :
Yes, household debt has reached an all time high, but so has household net worth (see link below). I assume this means that people are wealthier, so they're a little more comfortable taking out a mortgage, putting something on a CC, etc.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/dataviz/z1/balance_sheet/chart/
In reply to RX Reven' :
Not sure where you got that graph, but it ends in 2016 and doesn't really define if it's the federal government, state, local, or a combination of all 3. Numbers and graphs can look scary until you start to take apart the numbers, and some of it is counter intuitive.
If the pooling our money though the government is a more efficient way of buying services, then I’ll take it.
In reply to Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) :
I don't disagree the US is in dire need of infrastructure repair and upgrades, but Duke is not wrong in that the current US construction system is already ballz-to-wall and adding more projects and competition for already stretched resources will increase costs across the board, thus adding to inflation.
However, if there is one caveat to this situation, Federally sponsored construction projects (and infrastructure projects in general) often take years of planning before they actually get started. If we're lucky, the budget proposed will actually bear fruit in about a decade. Of course, this is also why these types of projects can have such a hard time getting funded - since the politicians voting for them often won't be around when those projects are actually finished. Or the general public never remembers who voted for them.
In reply to Ian F (Forum Supporter) :
Mitch McConnell is already taking credit for the projects in his state, he actually voted for the bill and Kentucky needed it. Strange bedfellows indeed.
There are plenty of studies out there regarding infrastructure repairs that are way overdue including bridges that should have already collapsed. We also have water works in Michigan that are unusable because of lead poisoning. We have been ignoring our infrastructure for years. Some of it is more important that building yet another luxury apartment complex in Dallas or Phoenix.
https://kxel.com/2021/11/10/benton-harbor-michigan-lead-pipe-removal-is-finally-underway/
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