I still don't see EV's Replacing ICEs.

Interesting 

People learn things weird.

Apple and Google and pretty much all cell phone manufacturers artificially slow down their phones and limit the battery capacity over time to get you to buy new phones. They've gotten sued and lost, and admitted it in most cases, so it's not a wacky conspiracy theory.

From this people take that batteries don't last and need to be replaced every two or three years.

Most batteries are warrantied for far longer than most people own their cars. I trust my battery in the Bolt more than the transmission in the Pacifica, and they are not far off in price.

In reply to Tom1200 :

Tom  

 The average person drives 12,000 miles per year.  The average person is paying less than $200 a year for state gas tax. 22 mpg/ 36 cents gallon state sales tax 
   $1000 ( where did you come up with that number?)   Would be 8 cents per mile.   So a 5x increase?  
   

tuna55 said:

Correct. Do a bit of looking about before you make claims like this. SC also has a tax on my registration to make up for not purchasing gasoline. It isn't even new. I think it was around $100.

OK I should explain how I got there:

All of the EV plans are 10-12 years out; the adjusted rate of inflation for 10-12 years on $200 is going to be $315-$350 but it's not that simple.

A state like California is going to be facing a 2 billion dollar loss of revenue (in todays dollars) or 3 billion adjusted at a minimum if the get to 30% EV.  If you divide that up between the projected number of cars you are taking about $900 (adjusted for inflation) per car.

Further many states have proposed a $.02 - $.025 per mile usage tax. The low side of this 10K per year works out to $200 annually. This would be done via on Odo check annually and paid through your renewal (EDIT because my math was Poo)

Now add the $200 to the $900 in lost revenue; for that I estimated the $1200 to $2000 as I expect the states to pad it.

So I actually did do a bit of looking.

tuna55 said:

People learn things weird.

It's why I'm hoping my last response to Wally makes sense. People hear a battery lasts "2,000 cycles" and think it's gonna drop dead when it hits that magical limit, without understanding that's a cell used up every day, recharged to max every day, with no temperature control, for 5 and a half years straight. It quickly becomes a numbers game, and your average person doesn't deal with it in that context.

Curtis73 (Forum Supporter) said:

Chris_V said:

Some of you have problems with EVs because they are new cars and you can't buy new cars. It's not so much a problem with EVs, but in your own situation. No manufacturer makes a $3000 used car. NONE of them. Nothing to do with being EV or not. Hel,l you probably couldn't have afforded the car you have NOW when IT was new...

I grew up below the poverty line and traded in free cars. Now I'm on my 3rd EV. I can afford a $300 a month car payment and no gas bill (which pays for a lot of the car payment). I'm not rich, either.

Gas cars will be around for decades. Even if all manufacturing switched to JUST EVs tomorrow morning, it would take decades to replace even half the gas cars and light trucks in the US overall fleet. So you have time for today's EVs to come down to the same price point your beaters are already at.

All of this.  I will be the first to buy one when there are examples of reliable, serviceable used examples in the $4000 range. (based entirely on my current paradigm)  This is why my last DD was a 1994 and my current DD is a 2006.  If that trend continues (where I'm 15-20 years behind new), it might be 2035 until I own an EV

 I feel like I'm ganging  up on you.   I understand your circumstances and fully accept you are not going to get an EV in the next couple of years.   I'm fine with that.  I apologize 

But if you are average. You're paying $2200 a year for gas for that car.  Even if the car you have now was free   You're spending $183 a month for just for  gas.   And a little more for oil etc. 
       That's  about a $10,000 used car price.  Over 6 years.     Yes the poverty tax will hit you with high interest rates.  So you can't take advantage of the full $13,200 

   But look at prices a year or two  from now.    I'll bet the EV's hold up better than the ICE's 

     I guess what I'm trying to say is you really don't need to wait 20-30 years for EV's to fall into your budget. 
          You simply need to start thinking about the total cost. 
 

  To be fair. There are electric costs involved. My neighbors report their EV's add about $20-30 a month to the electric bills. That's because they aren't driving 300 miles every day.  Probably less than the 35 miles /day average.  

dculberson said:

I replaced the battery (actually swapped cells, leaving original electronics in the pack intact) on a Volt and it really wasn't hard. Time consuming, but not even as much work or time as say swapping a transmission.

I'll have to read up on more of the tech, but one of the reasons I never got into that was because I'm constantly being told in my current (pun intended) research that matched cells are imperative to (at the least) proper operation and (at the worst) preventing a fiery death.  The youtubers that I've watched all go to insanity levels of testing and documenting cells so they can get a near-perfect match on cells.  Is there something I'm missing?  Seems like a handful of brand new cells in a used pack is a recipe for potential failure.  I'm not an expert, and maybe those youtube experts are just covering their butts for something that isn't that important, but can you enlighten my brain on the theory?

Tom1200 said:

tuna55 said:

Correct. Do a bit of looking about before you make claims like this. SC also has a tax on my registration to make up for not purchasing gasoline. It isn't even new. I think it was around $100.

OK I should explain how I got there:

All of the EV plans are 10-12 years out; the adjusted rate of inflation for 10-12 years on $200 is going to be $315-$350 but it's not that simple.

A state like California is going to be facing a 2 billion dollar loss of revenue (in todays dollars) or 3 billion adjusted at a minimum if the get to 30% EV.  If you divide that up between the projected number of cars you are taking about $900 (adjusted for inflation) per car.

Further many states have proposed a $.02 - $.025 per mile usage tax. The low side of this 10K per year works out to $2000 annually. This would be done via on Odo check annually and paid through your renewal

So I actually did do a bit of looking.

 

Umm, 10K miles at 2 cents per mile is $200.

frenchyd said:

Curtis73 (Forum Supporter) said:

Chris_V said:

Some of you have problems with EVs because they are new cars and you can't buy new cars. It's not so much a problem with EVs, but in your own situation. No manufacturer makes a $3000 used car. NONE of them. Nothing to do with being EV or not. Hel,l you probably couldn't have afforded the car you have NOW when IT was new...

I grew up below the poverty line and traded in free cars. Now I'm on my 3rd EV. I can afford a $300 a month car payment and no gas bill (which pays for a lot of the car payment). I'm not rich, either.

Gas cars will be around for decades. Even if all manufacturing switched to JUST EVs tomorrow morning, it would take decades to replace even half the gas cars and light trucks in the US overall fleet. So you have time for today's EVs to come down to the same price point your beaters are already at.

All of this.  I will be the first to buy one when there are examples of reliable, serviceable used examples in the $4000 range. (based entirely on my current paradigm)  This is why my last DD was a 1994 and my current DD is a 2006.  If that trend continues (where I'm 15-20 years behind new), it might be 2035 until I own an EV

 I feel like I'm ganging  up on you.   I understand your circumstances and fully accept you are not going to get an EV in the next couple of years.   I'm fine with that.  I apologize 

But if you are average. You're paying $2200 a year for gas for that car.  Even if the car you have now was free   You're spending $183 a month for just for  gas.   And a little more for oil etc. 
       That's  about a $10,000 used car price.  Over 6 years.     Yes the poverty tax will hit you with high interest rates.  So you can't take advantage of the full $13,200 

   But look at prices a year or two  from now.    I'll bet the EV's hold up better than the ICE's 

     I guess what I'm trying to say is you really don't need to wait 20-30 years for EV's to fall into your budget. 
          You simply need to start thinking about the total cost. 
 

  To be fair. There are electric costs involved. My neighbors report their EV's add about $20-30 a month to the electric bills. That's because they aren't driving 300 miles every day.  Probably less than the 35 miles /day average.  

I don't feel like you're ganging up on me, but it's the same reason people rent housing.  Fixed income allows for $2000/mo rent.  Everyone says "just mortgage a house and have a $1000 payment."

Which is great... if you have a $30k down payment, $5k in closing costs, and good credit.  As soon as I have $12k sitting around burning a hole in my pocket, then yes, it makes sense to get an EV and start saving on operating costs.  Right now I could only afford a $4k trashed EV which likely won't save me money on operating costs if it decides to break.  Hence why I still "rent" by driving an ICE.

I have great credit and a tiny mortgage so I could theoretically finance a $12k used EV with $4000 down, I choose not to because I don't like almost half of my payment going toward amortized interest and end up spending a total of $20k for a car that's worth $5k when I'm done with payments.  At least with a house there is almost no chance of it losing value (and I put about 50% down and I pay my mortgage twice a month to minimize interest so my 30 year mortgage will be paid in about 10 years)

So... I either buy a $4k ICE and spend $2k a year in gas and oil vs a $4k down payment on a $12k EV which will cost me $20k over 6 years and be worth $5k when I'm done doesn't add up... yet.  But it will.

Wicked93gs said:

In reply to Curtis73 (Forum Supporter) :

^^This. All the EV optimists think that the majority of Americans buy new cars. They don't. The vast majority of us buy used cars that cost $5000 or less. By the time an EV is in that price range its going to be beat to death(at least in the near-term). Even for enthusiasts like most of the people on this board when we build a car, we don't spend a huge amount of money upfront...we buy something cheap and available and then upgrade it as we go. I would love to build a performance EV...but the reason I have never looked at it seriously is because the upfront investment is just too high. Its far more manageable to buy a $500 junker and put $5000 in it over a few years than it is to buy a $5500 EV junker upfront and then be at risk of battery failure that the replacement cost is out of reach in an emergency situation.

How many miles a year do you drive?  
  Assuming 22? Mpg?   You are spending $2200 a year just for gas.  More if you drive more than 12,000 a year!   .  Or $183 a month.   So please add that to that $500 junker and $5000 worth of repairs. 
        
   
     

In reply to Curtis73 (Forum Supporter) :

Reminds me of something I've read/heard a few times: Being poor is expensive.  

I see it myself when I go shopping. If something I use often is on sale, I'm in the fortunate position where I don't think twice about buying 2-4x what I need (depending on the item). But I can see how someone on a more limited income wouldn't be able to do that, and thus miss out on those savings. It's only a few $ at a time, but multiply this scenario over an entire year and it adds up. 

In reply to Ian F (Forum Supporter) :

Being poor is definitely expensive.  I'm far from poor, but I am low income by choice.  Cheap house, cheap car, super fun job in the arts that pays crap.  I could technically buy a $12k EV with cash, but it would put a big dent in my rainy day fund... not to mention my old rusty car addiction.

Wicked93gs said:

In reply to Curtis73 (Forum Supporter) :

^^This. All the EV optimists think that the majority of Americans buy new cars. They don't. The vast majority of us buy used cars that cost $5000 or less. 

(bolding mine) Do you have a source for that?  IMHO, there's no way it's true.

The numbers I can find show about 3 used car transactions for every new car.  Average listing prices of used cars are currently about $27,500 according to Cox.

Curtis73 (Forum Supporter) said:

dculberson said:

I replaced the battery (actually swapped cells, leaving original electronics in the pack intact) on a Volt and it really wasn't hard. Time consuming, but not even as much work or time as say swapping a transmission.

I'll have to read up on more of the tech, but one of the reasons I never got into that was because I'm constantly being told in my current (pun intended) research that matched cells are imperative to (at the least) proper operation and (at the worst) preventing a fiery death.  The youtubers that I've watched all go to insanity levels of testing and documenting cells so they can get a near-perfect match on cells.  Is there something I'm missing?  Seems like a handful of brand new cells in a used pack is a recipe for potential failure.  I'm not an expert, and maybe those youtube experts are just covering their butts for something that isn't that important, but can you enlighten my brain on the theory?

Sorry I wasn't clear; I replaced all the cells at once with a good used set from another volt. New cells would be the same concept, put a whole new batch in. I didn't do any mixy matchy. I tried that with the hybrid Lexus I bought here a few years ago and it was an enormous pain. 

Tom1200 said:

tuna55 said:

Correct. Do a bit of looking about before you make claims like this. SC also has a tax on my registration to make up for not purchasing gasoline. It isn't even new. I think it was around $100.

OK I should explain how I got there:

All of the EV plans are 10-12 years out; the adjusted rate of inflation for 10-12 years on $200 is going to be $315-$350 but it's not that simple.

A state like California is going to be facing a 2 billion dollar loss of revenue (in todays dollars) or 3 billion adjusted at a minimum if the get to 30% EV.  If you divide that up between the projected number of cars you are taking about $900 (adjusted for inflation) per car.

Further many states have proposed a $.02 - $.025 per mile usage tax. The low side of this 10K per year works out to $200 annually. This would be done via on Odo check annually and paid through your renewal (EDIT because my math was Poo)

Now add the $200 to the $900 in lost revenue; for that I estimated the $1200 to $2000 as I expect the states to pad it.

So I actually did do a bit of looking.

 

EV costs vary a ton by location. What's true for one location can be wildly different in another. As of 2021, 30 states have added yearly fees (in addition to standard registration costs) to register EVs:

CA has the second highest fuel taxes in the nation:

So if we assume an average of 12k miles driven per year:

A gas truck that gets 20mpg would use 600 gallons of fuel and pay $339.60 in fuel tax/yr in CA.

A small car that gets 30 mpg would use 400 gallons of fuel and pay $226.40 in fuel tax/yr in CA.

A hybrid that gets 40mpg would use 300 gallons of fuel and pay $169.80 in fuel tax/yr in CA.

An EV skips those usage taxes, but pays $100 flat fee regardless of how much or how little it's used.

So yes, the EV currently has it better, and there will need to be a change in fees to cover the difference. Thinking of it another way, CA currently has the second highest fuel taxes in the nation (almost double the median), but they're only charging around median rate for EV registration. The issue seems like it's more about currently high taxes than about EVs.

If we compared it to a state like Michigan, which has a $235 annual fee for EVs, and a lower fuel tax of 28.6 cents/gal we get:

15mpg vehicle uses 800 gallons and pays $228.8

20 mpg vehicle uses 600 gallons and pays $171.60

30 mpg vehicle uses 400 gallons and pays $114.40

40 mpg vehicle uses 300 gallons and pays $85.8

So in Michigan, EVs already pay more to use each year than the average 15mpg vehicle contributes in fuel taxes. The ratio of EV fee to fuel taxes is far different than a place like CA. Widespread EV adoption in Michigan would lead to increased revenue compared to fuel taxes.

Of course that potential budget shortfall in CA makes EV ownership more appealing there, essentially subsidizing current owners with future tax revenue. And the increased cost to operate an EV in Michigan detracts from ownership somewhat.

Curtis73 (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to Ian F (Forum Supporter) :

Being poor is definitely expensive.  I'm far from poor, but I am low income by choice.  Cheap house, cheap car, super fun job in the arts that pays crap.  I could technically buy a $12k EV with cash, but it would put a big dent in my rainy day fund... not to mention my old rusty car addiction.

Another way to express it!   Assume you've been driving for 70 years (16-86)  we can calculate inflation in here or just use todays numbers so we understand in todays world what it feels like 

 average annual miles with average fuel mileage  that's $148,000 plus another $14000 for oil changes plus whatever you've spent for cars over your lifetime..  And spent for repairs 

  That's your lifetime transportation costs.  In todays money. $162,000

In reply to STM317 :

Nice data. 

The budget shortfall will cause various states to overreact as they often do. Their choice will be piss of 70% of the voters (ICE) or 30% (EV). Seeing as officials tend to tax people they think can afford it; my thought is the EV owners will soon be covering the shortfall. 

Tom1200 said:

In reply to STM317 :

Nice data. 

The budget shortfall will cause various states to overreact as they often do. Their choice will be piss of 70% of the voters (ICE) or 30% (EV). Seeing as officials tend to tax people they think can afford it; my thought is the EV owners will soon be covering the shortfall. 

  

That's a random guess as to what will happen if another thing happens. It seems like a very silly reason to change any real purchasing decision.

If your guesses were that prophetic, you wouldn't be bothering with us, you'd be a Wall St king.

This is like when someone tells me they "need a new car" because blah blah... I have learned that what they really mean is "I want a new car, and here are some things I am going to say next which are mostly unrelated"

If you don't want an EV, don't buy an EV, but don't pretend there's some cost that you're expecting someday which nobody can point to. You could, likely with greater accuracy, say that you won't buy an ICE car because gasoline prices are going to go up because of a prolonged land war in Europe and China might attack Taiwan.

Tom1200 said:

In reply to STM317 :

Nice data. 

The budget shortfall will cause various states to overreact as they often do. Their choice will be piss of 70% of the voters (ICE) or 30% (EV). Seeing as officials tend to tax people they think can afford it; my thought is the EV owners will soon be covering the shortfall. 

  

I'm sorry Tom. But by that logic tax rates would be higher on the one %  and lowest on  middle class working poor.

  Some years Jeff Bezos didn't pay any taxes while at least the skid row drunkard paid FET on the booze he bought. 

In reply to tuna55 :

At the very end of my original post I said  "Due note as Nostra-Thomas I'm usually wrong about future predictions but at the moment this is where I'm at" So yes it was a prophecy; the title itself even states "I still don't see" which implies a future prediction.

People make buying decisions all the time based on what they think might happen. I'm a purchasing analyst and have to work through this process everyday. We start with generalizations of what could happen and then drill down into the details and go from there............is not too dissimilar fashion to this post.

I'm neither pro nor anti EV; just speculating on why I do not think they are going to take over the market.

As I stated elsewhere I'm simply thinking out loud.

In reply to Tom1200 :

Fair enough Tom.  
    Logic would predict EV domination.  But then logic often has little to do with peoples decisions.

 So you could be right. 

In reply to frenchyd :

Think traffic citations; the majority of pedestrian deaths are the pedestrian's fault yet police do crosswalk stings. Why? Because the people in cars are much more able to pay the fines. 

Note: The top 1% of earners pay 42% of the federal taxes.

In reply to dculberson :

Gotcha

A road use tax shouldn't be that hard to figure out.  In states that have regular safety inspections they already record your mileage, so using that they can bill accordingly. 

Tom1200 said:

In reply to frenchyd :

Think traffic citations; the majority of pedestrian deaths are the pedestrian's fault yet police do crosswalk stings. Why? Because the people in cars are much more able to pay the fines. 

Note: The top 1% of earners pay 42% of the federal taxes.

That's one of those dubious numbers.   Because it's entirely possible to legally evade taxes completely or mostly.  I offer Jeff Bezos   So lottery winners, sports stars and other highly visible tax payers may pay 42%  but it's not necessarily the  top 1% of income earners. 
 Regarding crosswalk stings?   The reason drivers get the tickets is because they have licenses. Besides it's so much easier to pull a car over than chase down pedestrians who aren't encumbered   by seat belts and holsters,  donuts,  etc. 

   Really can you imagine a police officer  in running shoes  standing by the crosswalk?   He'd have to be a very fit track star to chase down some teenager 

Wally (Forum Supporter) said:

A road use tax shouldn't be that hard to figure out.  In states that have regular safety inspections they already record your mileage, so using that they can bill accordingly. 

I've mentioned that before, and every time I've gotten the "but how do they know how much you drove out of state?" question.  Which I don't think really needs to matter that much...