Taking bets, prognostication or wild ass guesses.
I got no clue. But want to upgrade sometime next year.
Taking bets, prognostication or wild ass guesses.
I got no clue. But want to upgrade sometime next year.
They will go down as soon as I get the one I want to sell ready to list...
When I put my ranger up for sale next week, prices will plummet until I sell it for pennies, then they'll skyrocket again so I can't buy a replacement.
I have been watching the Hertz sales. I bought a Dodge Minivan the last week of May
On March 13th I wrote these words on GRM
A quick jump over to Hertz Car Sales site show that within 1000 miles of my house (the farthest it will search) there are 36,383 Hertz Cars up for sale. The breakdown by most brand is:
A quick jump over to the Hertz sales site today and within 1000 miles of my house there are just 4,538 Hertz Cars up for sale.
The brands with more than 100 cars are
I did notice that after I bought 2019 Dodge Caravan w/ 42k miles for $15,090 that in the weeks that followed, the Hertz site had the same specs for closer to $18k or $3k more. When I search today for the same van, there are just two available within 200 miles of me. Prices of these two are just slightly more. Searching farther out like 500 miles shows only higher mile vans on the lot and prices higher than mine. If you travel to get a Grand Caravan like mine, the price is generally $1,000 more currently. So, prices are down but supply is down.
I drove past my local Toyota dealer yesterday and they looked to have 20 recent Jeep Cherokees parked on the gas near their lot. I bet this was a bulk buy off the rental car companies. Probably a smart buy for the dealership as we head into winter shoppers. I remember that Hertz was sitting on many Cherokees.
In reply to Fueled by Caffeine :
Watch new car prices for a clue. A New full sized vehicle can be bought for 20% less than list. A one year old with <20,000 miles might sell for 25% off new list. A 2 year old with > 30,000 miles will be sold for 35% off list. And so on.
I don't think car prices will come down for quite some time in this crazy post-covid world. In my view, at the low end of the market what used to be a $3k car is now a $5k car.
$1,500 cars are now $3,000 at the lowest end.
$3,000 "good drivers" like you might buy for your high school kid are now $5,000
If SUV add another $1,000 to that price for $6,000
Under 75k miles and less than 7 years (2014 model) is starting at $10,000
I am noticing another interesting trend. When CL was the dominate force, you just sorted by dealer or owner and I always just shopped the owner prices. Now that FB Marketplace is the dominate force, there is no way to sort out the dealer stuff and see "owner" only.
Further more, FBM is DOMINATED by dealer ads. There are really very few "owner" ads. This is conditioning people to see just inflated dealer prices. If that is all you see then you come to accept those prices as "real" and where the market is at.
Used car prices didn't change here that I noticed, but bike prices are stupid. They seemed to settle back down for a few weeks and now they're going back up again.
I don't think we'll see them drop until we're in recession
In reply to John Welsh (Moderate Supporter) :
I think part of the issue of FBM being dominated by dealers right now is that at least in certain parts of the country, trying to register a private purchase is a huge PITA as it takes weeks to months to get an appointment at the DMV. So if you need to get a car to get you to work on Monday and you're not in CA where you can drive on the PO's registration for a while, your only option is getting one from a dealer.
Not to mention that I would expect that there are still some issues with the supply of new vehicles, which would also affect the supply of used vehicles. I suspect that's why some of the small used car lots around here have closed and other have very little inventory.
In reply to BoxheadTim (Forum Supporter) :
I would consider Ohio to still be very easy to register a vehicle. Sure, mask and may be waiting in line out doors rather than too many people inside but hours are not shortened and locations are open. Maybe some things have actually gotten more convenient as "online" activities increase.
The salvage auction I attend were 600 cars per week pre covid and then dipped to just 200 cars. Lately a rise back to the 400's. However, prices have gotten crazy high. So much so that I let my annual pass expire since I did not want to pay $200 and buy no cars. Sure, maybe I could pay more because I would sell for more but I haven't been able to wrap my feeble mind around the acceptance to take the more expensive gamble.
Around here there is a nice, private lot that I see as a nice business. Say 25 cars of mid-grade that all sell quickly. Nice inventory. He now seems to have 4 cars on the lot. Sometimes fewer.
Marketplace noted on Wednesday that, nationwide, the price of used cars is up 7% year over year. That percentage, according to NYT and USA today, is actually larger for full size and midsize trucks.
Several factors are at play according to their research:
I wouldn't expect to see prices drop anytime soon. I'd WAG this time next year provided things get back under control around next summer which some experts are predicting based upon the current research and abatement activities taking place.
I almost did what John Welsh did back in March. 2019 Silverado 4x4 Extended Cab w/ 15k miles was $25k at Hertz. But at the beginning of the Covid shutdown I wasn't that excited about a trip to Tampa. Essentially the same truck with double the mileage is now $30k from Hertz. Truck prices are CRAZY! So, I'm still without a truck...
Since we just bought my wife a new to her car for a higher price than I wanted I'm anticipating that prices will drop any day now.
Locally, I started noticing a drop in the really hooptie end of the spectrum and in classic car projects. Since it's prime hooptie buying season (winter beater), this suggests to me that the price drop has already started.
I was intrigued by Javelin's experience with the Ford Flex.
Feb 2020 (barely pre-covid) purchase of $11k. Four months later it is flood totaled. To find the same car he then had to spend $16k (and there were very few to choose from.)
The $5k more is nearly 46% more and even if we reduce that for differences in dealerships that is still easy to say 30% more.
And, he had to play hard ball for the $16k bringing it down from the nearly $4k more they wanted. If they had gotten him for all that it would have been closer to 80% more.
We've already seen used car pricing start to slip in the last two weeks. Auction indices are down slightly (2%) from the silly numbers we saw a month ago, though year over year they're still up nearly 15%.
My personal suspicion is that there's another recession on the horizon and the car market will be in freefall here in about 6 months
calteg said:My personal suspicion is that there's another recession on the horizon and the car market will be in freefall here in about 6 months
I agree 100%. I've changed from furiously trying to pay off debt to saving cash, just in case. I suspect my job will be ok unless we have a "boy wouldn't the Great Depression be great right about now" type event.
Peabody said:Used car prices didn't change here that I noticed, but bike prices are stupid.
After I thought about this I realized that I stopped looking at cars when I bought (at a significant discount) in May.
So I had a look at the cars I'd been shopping and thought it looked like prices are down about 20%. I did a bit of reading and apparently used car prices in Ontario are down between 11% and 20%.
I know used cars are usually cheaper here, but it's odd that your prices have gone up and ours have gone down, especially since I think new cars are generally cheaper south of the border.
z31maniac said:calteg said:My personal suspicion is that there's another recession on the horizon and the car market will be in freefall here in about 6 months
I agree 100%. I've changed from furiously trying to pay off debt to saving cash, just in case. I suspect my job will be ok unless we have a "boy wouldn't the Great Depression be great right about now" type event.
That strategy being right or wrong depends a lot on inflation (currently 2% per year). If inflation rises drastically, which a lot of economists are predicting, then you’ve done it backward since inflation favors debt. If we experience deflation, which I’ve also heard argued albeit not as strenuously, then cash is the ticket.
I just got $3,800 trade in allowance on a crusty 15 year old Explorer with 110k on it. Granted it looked and drove like new inside and out, just don’t look underneath. But still, craziness.
What makes no sense though is market dynamics have shifted away from cars in general. It's been all over the news. Car manufacturers killing car lines left and right to expand on the other segments. Nobody wants a car, nearly all wants a truck, SUV or CUV for their current lifestyle. I am trying to get a SEDAN and good grief to the prices I have seen. It is that much harder on both fronts on new and used pricing.
BoxheadTim (Forum Supporter) said:In reply to John Welsh (Moderate Supporter) :
I think part of the issue of FBM being dominated by dealers right now is that at least in certain parts of the country, trying to register a private purchase is a huge PITA as it takes weeks to months to get an appointment at the DMV.
Really?! Which states are bad for this?
I really regret not buying a $27k Focus RS in March. (I was all set to, then money future anxiety stepped in) There are none on Autotrader under $35k right now. I could have had a fun ride for a few months and then sold it for a profit.
There also used to be a bunch of RS3s in the $35k range, now they are all over $50k. If I spend $50k for something it will have a yard, a bathroom, and at least two bedrooms.
11GTCS said:I just got $3,800 trade in allowance on a crusty 15 year old Explorer with 110k on it. Granted it looked and drove like new inside and out, just don’t look underneath. But still, craziness.
How much of that $3800 was over allowance or discount of new price?
The Hertz lot in Northeast Cincinnati suburbia has quite an open lot vs what it looked like even two months ago. I am guessing that Hertz has successfully liquidated a good portion of their excess inventory.
In reply to frenchyd :
I started at $3,500.00 and it’s a numbers game, I get it. It was the last day of the month and I was looking to buy a 3 year old / low mileage pretty much loaded new version of the same vehicle that they’d been sitting on for a month and a half. One owner, good service records and all by a Ford dealer, 4 new tires, oil change and a 4 wheel brake job by the dealer I bought it from. It was what we’d been looking for and we had missed out on three similar ones by playing the waiting game too long. I didn’t want to get stuck with an expensive repair like brake lines or a transmission, unfortunately with the crap they throw on the roads in the winter here it was only a matter of time.
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