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02Pilot
02Pilot PowerDork
10/17/23 8:03 p.m.

This is a pretty clearly slanted piece, but also quite interesting as a historical artifact. I didn't see a date, but it's got to be 1946-7.

 

02Pilot
02Pilot PowerDork
10/17/23 9:15 p.m.

Biden's meetings with Abbas and King Abdullah canceled, apparently. This is merely a matter of survival, as no Arab leader could possibly be seen having a normal conversation with the US president and not have to contend with vigorous domestic demonstrations and unrest as a result. I would not be at all surprised if quiet conversations are still continuing behind the scenes, and both Jordan and the Palestinian Authority know that playing ball with the US is likely to result in better outcomes than simply cutting ties.

AAZCD-Jon (Forum Supporter)
AAZCD-Jon (Forum Supporter) SuperDork
10/17/23 10:02 p.m.

Regarding the hospital, evidence and provable facts will not matter to much of the world. There are articles like this from official sources that are not allowed to be questioned.

Tehran, IRNA - Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has strongly condemned the brutal attack by the Israeli regime on a hospital in Gaza City that claimed the lives of hundreds of people.

"The flames of the American-Israeli bombs that were dropped on the heads of the oppressed wounded Palestinians at Gaza's hospital would soon devour Zionists," President Raisi wrote in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, on Tuesday night.

Earlier in the day, at least 500 civilians, mainly women and children, were killed by Israeli airstrikes on the facility amid a relentless war by the regime on the besieged Gaza Strip, the territory's health ministry said. (https://en.irna.ir/news/85262075/US-Israeli-bombs-flames-to-soon-devour-Zionists-Raisi)

Even where reports can be questioned, personal and cultural biases prevail.

Recon1342
Recon1342 SuperDork
10/18/23 8:50 a.m.
aircooled said:

...there is no real solution to the underlying problems (there honestly are a LOT of inter wound ones, yes, even oil).  Even if there was, I don't think it would mater because there are WAY to many parties who very much want death and aggression, with almost no regard to who gets killed, including their supposed "kin" or "allies". 

Because of that, they will twist their motivations to a point where they can never be resolved, short of genocide, and honestly, probably not even that.  A-holes continue to be a-holes, even after they get what they want.

Quoted for emphasis (and truth). 

The Middle East is a tribal gumbo of alliances, ethnicities, religions, sects, and hatred of the "other", simmered for millennia to arrive at the situation we have today. 

There will not be peace in the region until humanity and peace become more profitable for the leadership than hatred and war.

bobzilla
bobzilla MegaDork
10/18/23 9:05 a.m.

I need to find it but Al-Jazeera were live=streaming the rocket launch at the time of the attack. You can see one go low and drop down about where the hospital is at the time it was hit. Now, I'm not a rocket surgeon but that seems more likely. You can't fire literally thousnds of missles and expect a 0% failure rate. IIRC earlier in the day they almost hit one of their own mosques. 

EDIT: the question I have is.,... was it really a misfire or was it intentional to create outrage? We know that is not above these monsters to slaughter their own to create martyrs

jharry3
jharry3 GRM+ Memberand Dork
10/18/23 9:12 a.m.

This is what started it.  The Balfour Declaration.  British breakup of the Ottoman Empire without a real plan to deal with the people they were kicking out.  The Ottomans had over 400 years of relatively peaceful rule over the Middle East.  The British Break up destroyed the balance and has led to 100 years of wars in that area.

(13) The Balfour Declaration's impact, 100 years on - YouTube

(13) The Balfour Declaration explained - YouTube

(13) What's the Balfour Declaration? And how did it MESS UP the Middle East? - YouTube

Just remember it took the USA 100 years to subdue the original settlers of North America, the Native Americans, First People, whatever you wish to call them,  because they didn't want to be displaced, just like the people in the Palestinian region of the Ottoman Empire didn't want to be displaced by colonists and are fighting that displacement to this day.

 

02Pilot
02Pilot PowerDork
10/18/23 9:16 a.m.

In reply to bobzilla :

I've seen the footage you mention, and apparently there are commo intercepts from Islamic Jihad discussing the misfire (seems it was their rocket, not Hamas'). I doubt it was intentional, however, as the ordnance they're using simply isn't that accurate. Per the IDF, in past conflicts rockets from Gaza have had about a 33% failure rate (all modes).

AAZCD-Jon (Forum Supporter)
AAZCD-Jon (Forum Supporter) SuperDork
10/18/23 9:17 a.m.

Increasing calls for "the violence to stop" and the evacuation of civilians from north Gaza to be reversed. https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2023/10/mil-231017-unnews01.htm?_m=3n%2e002a%2e3745%2eue0ao44cog%2e3ha4

SV reX
SV reX MegaDork
10/18/23 9:27 a.m.
jharry3 said:

This is what started it.  The Balfour Declaration.  British breakup of the Ottoman Empire without a real plan to deal with the people they were kicking out.  The Ottomans had over 400 years of relatively peaceful rule over the Middle East.  The British Break up destroyed the balance and has led to 100 years of wars in that area.

(13) The Balfour Declaration's impact, 100 years on - YouTube

(13) The Balfour Declaration explained - YouTube

(13) What's the Balfour Declaration? And how did it MESS UP the Middle East? - YouTube

Just remember it took the USA 100 years to subdue the original settlers of North America, the Native Americans, First People, whatever you wish to call them,  because they didn't want to be displaced, just like the people in the Palestinian region of the Ottoman Empire didn't want to be displaced by colonists and are fighting that displacement to this day.

 

Perhaps in semi-modern history, but dissension and disagreement go back much further in the region. 

Jerusalem has been conquered and switched hands 44 times in its 5000 year history.  The Ottoman history is only about 600 years old.

 

SV reX
SV reX MegaDork
10/18/23 9:50 a.m.

...oh, and the Ottomans were not heroes or good governors of the region.  They pillaged it.
 

Just because they held control and avoided major war for 300 years doesn't mean things were rosey.

YouTube is not a great source for historical accuracy.

02Pilot
02Pilot PowerDork
10/18/23 9:55 a.m.

Because things are still quite active, no one seems to be talking about the end-game here, but it's really the fundamental question. How does this end? What does Gaza look like: occupied (partially or fully), sealed off, what? If Hamas is actually destroyed, who's in charge? What is Israel's preferred outcome? Egypt's? Iran's? America's? I'd be very interested to hear what options are being discussed right now, and how governments are seeking to shape the situation toward their desired end state.

Mndsm
Mndsm MegaDork
10/18/23 10:02 a.m.
SV reX said:

...oh, and the Ottomans were not heroes or good governors of the region.  They pillaged it.
 

Just because they held control and avoided major war for 400 years doesn't mean things were rosey.

YouTube is not a great source for historical accuracy.

History is rarely written from the silver medalists perspective. 

SV reX
SV reX MegaDork
10/18/23 10:31 a.m.

In reply to Mndsm :

Right. 
 

And people posting on YouTube ABOUT history, probably were not there.
 

...and they probably aren't Historians either. 

Kreb (Forum Supporter)
Kreb (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
10/18/23 10:35 a.m.
02Pilot said:

Because things are still quite active, no one seems to be talking about the end-game here, but it's really the fundamental question. How does this end? What does Gaza look like: occupied (partially or fully), sealed off, what? If Hamas is actually destroyed, who's in charge? What is Israel's preferred outcome? Egypt's? Iran's? America's? I'd be very interested to hear what options are being discussed right now, and how governments are seeking to shape the situation toward their desired end state.

The best possible realistic outcome is detente. Way too many people are invested in this conflict and radicalism continues apace. 

bobzilla
bobzilla MegaDork
10/18/23 11:01 a.m.
02Pilot said:

In reply to bobzilla :

I've seen the footage you mention, and apparently there are commo intercepts from Islamic Jihad discussing the misfire (seems it was their rocket, not Hamas'). I doubt it was intentional, however, as the ordnance they're using simply isn't that accurate. Per the IDF, in past conflicts rockets from Gaza have had about a 33% failure rate (all modes).

I'm sure it wasn't intentional but with groups like this it is always a possibility. Even if not they're using it to their benefit. 

tuna55
tuna55 MegaDork
10/18/23 11:23 a.m.
Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:
02Pilot said:

Because things are still quite active, no one seems to be talking about the end-game here, but it's really the fundamental question. How does this end? What does Gaza look like: occupied (partially or fully), sealed off, what? If Hamas is actually destroyed, who's in charge? What is Israel's preferred outcome? Egypt's? Iran's? America's? I'd be very interested to hear what options are being discussed right now, and how governments are seeking to shape the situation toward their desired end state.

The best possible realistic outcome is detente. Way too many people are invested in this conflict and radicalism continues apace. 

It's an interesting question. For Hamas, the only suitable solution is the extinction of the Israel and all Jews I think. That seems pretty unreasonable.

I don't know what it looks like fior Israel. A country where they don't have an arch nemesis at the gates blowing things up seems like a pretty good start, but I actually don't know if Israel would behave if that were attained. How would they handle immigration and travel? I am not sure how long it would take to normalize relations if that were to ever start to happen.

jmabarone
jmabarone HalfDork
10/18/23 11:54 a.m.

small update on the hospital explosion:  videos coming out today show lots of burnt cars, no craters, and a few broken windows at a chapel at the hospital.  Speculation is now that there may not actually be 500 people dead from that "Israeli attack".  

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
10/18/23 12:08 p.m.

The Israelis are showing drone shots to show that there is no crater.  The explosion appeared to be mostly in the parking lot area.  The majority of the damage / explosion appears to be the result of the fuel from the missile exploding.  So, the Islamic Jihad effectively napalmed their own hospital (more of a large clinic really, I am told)

As noted, none of this will mater at all that to those who "want to be mad".  It will all be dismissed as special effects and lies of the rat Jew.

Indy - Guy
Indy - Guy UltimaDork
10/18/23 12:24 p.m.

In reply to aircooled :

That's what makes the Media's "jump to conclusions" and "sensationalism" evem more tragic.

Mndsm
Mndsm MegaDork
10/18/23 12:31 p.m.
aircooled said:

The Israelis are showing drone shots to show that there is no crater.  The explosion appeared to be mostly in the parking lot area.  The majority of the damage / explosion appears to be the result of the fuel from the missile exploding.  So, the Islamic Jihad effectively napalmed their own hospital (more of a large clinic really, I am told)

As noted, none of this will mater at all that to those who "want to be mad".  It will all be dismissed as special effects and lies of the rat Jew.

Pretty easy to make a real big fireball without a lot of tech. Ask anyone that's played with an acetylene torch. If I was wanting to drum up sympathy for my cause, making a big boom next to some civilians that looked great on camera would be my move. My next move would be to blanket the media with mass casualties. Murder sells. 

 

If I was the opposite side of that conflict, I'd want to hustle and try and show that nothing happened and minimize the incident as quickly as humanly possible and make it look like someone made a big boom without a lot of casualties. 

 

What we appear to have here is evidence of both possibilities. 

Turbo_Rev
Turbo_Rev Reader
10/18/23 1:38 p.m.

There are weapons other than JDAMs that can be dropped by aircraft. Although I doubt that happened here. 

We'll probably never know the truth; we have two vehemently opposed entities who both have a vested interest in lying to get foreign countries involved. 

That said, I'm all for zero US involvement in the Middle East and 1000 ft. tall walls bordering the entire continental U.S. 

A boy can dream. 

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
10/18/23 2:14 p.m.

Here are shots from the Israeli video that is out there (you can probably see it on the news).  As I think has been mentioned, the hundreds dead was certainly an overstatement.  The last two frames are noting how there is a lack of evidence of any high over pressure explosions (which would cause structural damage), more of a large fireball (which it looked like in the video).

 

Israeli radio intercept:

Speaker 1: "They are are saying it belongs to [Palestinian Islamic Jihad]." 

Speaker 2: "It's from us?"

Speaker 1: "They shot it from the cemetery behind the hospital."

Speaker 2: "What?!" 

Speaker 1: "They shot it coming from the cemetery behind the hospital, and it misfired and fell on them."

A good picture of the impact point:

Image

Mndsm
Mndsm MegaDork
10/18/23 8:24 p.m.

In reply to aircooled :

I am not a ballistics expert, but that does not look like a precision missile strike. There's still glass in a bunch of those cars. 

Curtis73 (Forum Supporter)
Curtis73 (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
10/18/23 8:54 p.m.

I have spent countless hours attempting to understand the Middle East.  I work in a Jewish neighborhood for a company founded by Jewish people, and we have a significant population of Muslims in the area.  I figured I would try to understand at least the basics so I could know my community.  After 8 years of researching, reading, watching documentaries, and talking to friends who are from those areas....

.....I still don't know E36 M3.

I can't say much except that I can't say much.  Following for potential context.

This conflict is happening while we are getting ready to open Fiddler on the Roof in two weeks and it has been on the community's mind.  16 months ago we decided to do a show about the pogroms of the Jews in Russia in 1905.  This conflict has taken it from "ooo, fun show, let's go," to "ooo, poignant and/or timely salt in 5000-year-old wounds" depending on who you talk to.  Anything I can learn would be good for my brain right now, both for personal reasons and because I really hate it when people die.  War sucks.  No sides, just learning.

AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter)
AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) PowerDork
10/18/23 9:16 p.m.

In reply to Curtis73 (Forum Supporter) :

No offense, but it sounds like you already know everything there is to know about war.  The only people that love it are brainwashed or stand to benefit from it, which I view as evil.  It isn't any more complex than that.  
 

And if all your neighbors can't explain maybe their reasons for it all aren't that great.  I too have friends on all sides here.  It's is common working class people that always bear the brutal cost of war.  If you want resolution figure out who benefits and prevent that.  

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