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02Pilot
02Pilot UberDork
4/22/22 6:38 p.m.

In reply to JFW75 :

Having been occupied for a few centuries will tend to have that effect. It lessens the further north you go in the Balkans, but never really goes away until you get pretty close to Austria.

02Pilot
02Pilot UberDork
4/22/22 6:51 p.m.

In reply to stroker :

I took a look at the linked document. It's definitely out of step with most of the current Western material, enough so that I had to check the original source. It was published by a French think tank called CF2R, which seems to have been criticized enough lately to cause them to issue a very defensive-sounding press release two days ago. From that, it seems they certainly have a strong anti-US bias. I don't give a lot of weight to the article, at least not without corroborating evidence. Not that it's totally false, but it definitely chooses its version of the truth carefully.

None of the parties involved should be taken at their word. The Ukrainians are shaping the narrative just as much as the Russians are. The Ukrainians are more successful in the West because their version fits Western perceptions and preconceptions better. As Churchill famously noted, “In wartime, truth is so precious that she should always be attended by a bodyguard of lies.”

VolvoHeretic
VolvoHeretic GRM+ Memberand Reader
4/22/22 7:16 p.m.

In reply to Ian F (Forum Supporter) :

Didn't Switzerland and the US reach some kind of agreement a few years back about US money laundering in Switzerland? Names, dates, amounts? 

dculberson
dculberson MegaDork
4/22/22 8:44 p.m.

That Swiss article claims no Russian weapons in Ukraine before this latest conflict which is total crap. 

VolvoHeretic
VolvoHeretic GRM+ Memberand Reader
4/22/22 8:57 p.m.

Blame? Come on... 20,000? dead Russian soldiers,  10,000? dead Ukrainian soldiers, 20,000? dead Ukrainian civilians... Who's to blame? Even the US is chuck full of Nazis white supremacists. It's all on Put Put.

Edit: He needs to die.

Ian F (Forum Supporter)
Ian F (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
4/22/22 8:58 p.m.
VolvoHeretic said:

In reply to Ian F (Forum Supporter) :

Didn't Switzerland and the US reach some kind of agreement a few years back about US money laundering in Switzerland? Names, dates, amounts? 

I do remember reading about that, but is in the case of Russia, is it really considered laundering and subject to the same agreements?

VolvoHeretic
VolvoHeretic GRM+ Memberand Reader
4/22/22 9:17 p.m.
Ian F (Forum Supporter) said:
VolvoHeretic said:

In reply to Ian F (Forum Supporter) :

Didn't Switzerland and the US reach some kind of agreement a few years back about US money laundering in Switzerland? Names, dates, amounts? 

I do remember reading about that, but is in the case of Russia, is it really considered laundering and subject to the same agreements?

I am not sure, but the US is still the top dog money king in the world. If we want to, we can reward or destroy any country there is.

NOHOME
NOHOME MegaDork
4/22/22 10:34 p.m.
Ian F (Forum Supporter) said:
VolvoHeretic said:

In reply to Ian F (Forum Supporter) :

Didn't Switzerland and the US reach some kind of agreement a few years back about US money laundering in Switzerland? Names, dates, amounts? 

I do remember reading about that, but is in the case of Russia, is it really considered laundering and subject to the same agreements?

oddly enough, other countries have to fess up what and who's money is in their banks, but the USA does not have to reciprocate. I believe this has set up South Dakota  as a money laundering meca.

93EXCivic
93EXCivic MegaDork
4/22/22 11:19 p.m.

That article is ridiculous. One for them to claim that Russia had no input as far as weapons/men is insane. That is well known that the Russians provided both. Two one paramilitary group that had neo nazi ties does not make the whole nation neo nazi. And for Russia to claim that they should attack a country due to white supremacists is frankly laughable given their own treatment of minorities. Three Russia is not know for its fair elections so is there any reason for us to believe the so called vote in the Donbas region was actually legitimate. Four I have no seen any proof of this supposed killing of Donbas citizens beyond claims by the Russians. Five the overthrown government of Ukraine was supported heavily by Russian money and was massively corrupt (even if governments after have not been prefect).

That article seems to pedal in a lot of half truths and Russian propaganda. Not that the Ukrainians have acted perfectly at all times but I wonder how much money the Russians funneled to the author of that piece

Pete. (l33t FS)
Pete. (l33t FS) GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
4/22/22 11:29 p.m.

In reply to 93EXCivic :

One of my friends is a writer for hire, lot of listicle kinda stuff. His agency gets suspicious requests for blog entries and such to a given agenda like that...

Ever notice trending Google searches?  Those are prime for quick articles that all either reference each other or are made up from whole cloth.

volvoclearinghouse
volvoclearinghouse PowerDork
4/23/22 7:49 a.m.
Duke said:
Ian F (Forum Supporter) said:

If the article is being posted on both Left and Libertarian websites, I would consider that interesting.  Since those two groups have very little in common.

I was actually wondering about that myself.  Those two groups are rarely lumped together like that.

 

Politics is a lot like dirt track racing. If you find yourself going hard enough left, you'll end up turning right. 

Clarification: I did not read the article, and based on the later comments, am inclined not to. My comment is a generalization based on my experience.  There is also a very strong difference between what is considered "classically liberal" and what we call (often pejoratively) a "liberal" in this country...as well as what the terms "right" and "left" mean in the rest of the world as compared to the USA.

Kreb (Forum Supporter)
Kreb (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
4/23/22 1:28 p.m.

I think that it's good to be reminded occasionally that the narrative that one buys into has its flaws. Certainly the USA has done huge amounts of clandestine, overt, or otherwise screwing with the politics of the world - and some of it is shaky morally. But Russia is the clear bad guy here. Any article that goes so far out of its way to discredit the USA IRT Ukraine is showing its loyalties, and Truth may not be the primary one.  

Also, where's the substantiation? There's precious few links to data in that piece - biased or not. That tells me several things - Either it was written for an audience that takes the "facts" as true on faith, It doesn't dare show data that could be called into question, that data is scarce or non-existant, or the writer is lazy. 

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
4/23/22 2:47 p.m.

Some weirdness:

Despite making a great play on how there is no need to attack:

Russia resumed its assault on the last Ukrainian defenders holed up in a giant steel works in Mariupol, a Ukrainian official said on Saturday, days after Moscow declared victory in the southern port city and said its forces did not need to take the plant

It's almost like you can't trust what Putin says!!!

And this.   The message is pretty confusing, but I think they are saying Russia is shipping wheat from the occupied area, which Turkey is not allowing, so they are turning off their tracking data showing where they came from?

Stolen commodities from occupied Ukraine: Shipping from Crimea to Turkish ports continues unchecked with impunity, against Turkish policy. Astrakhan based CMC's Russian flag vessel Mikhail Nenashev, en route from Sevastopol, transited Bosphorus carrying wheat & arrived Derince

 

Noddaz
Noddaz GRM+ Memberand UberDork
4/25/22 10:25 a.m.

NPR

Russia says civilians can leave the Mariupol steel plant, but Ukraine disagrees

Russia's defense ministry says it will allow civilians to evacuate from the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol on Monday, according to a statement shared on Telegram and translated by Western outlets. Ukraine says no humanitarian corridor agreement has yet been reached.

https://www.npr.org/live-updates/ukraine-russia-blinken-04-25-2022#catch-up-on-the-weekends-biggest-developments

 

 

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
4/25/22 12:16 p.m.

Map update:  Russians continue to rocket and shell.  I am guessing you will not see a lot of Russian air activity away from the front because of increased Ukrainian air defense.  They are attempting to push from the north to close the bulge.  It looks like they are making some progress, but at what cost?  Also of interest is there are reported large equipment build ups north of Mariupol and Crimea (the tanks on the image below).  You could guess the Mariupol build up might be to try and push north to cutoff the bulge.  Not sure what the other one is looking for, other than maybe attacking Kryvyi (not that they have had much of any success taking cities).

It's possible the sort of general attack that was happening was a bit of a distraction for the primary push from the north and south, which was kind of the guess the whole time anyway.

RX Reven'
RX Reven' GRM+ Memberand UltraDork
4/25/22 12:19 p.m.

In reply to Noddaz :

Charliebrown Thanksgiving GIF - Charliebrown Thanksgiving Lucy - Discover &  Share GIFs

 

eastsideTim
eastsideTim PowerDork
4/25/22 3:24 p.m.

In the last few days, I've been hearing of a fires at a Russian agency dedicated to creating counters to western weapons, an aerospace college, and some recruitment centers.  And supposedly a damaged dam.  I guess the question I have is, is this sabotage, or Russia being a large country with a lot of infrastructure, these are just "normal" events that are being reported on more by sources outside of the country than usual?  I mean, if it weren't for the war, no one outside of Russia would likely care, and if they take care of their infrastructure as well as they take care of their armed forces, would this just be expected?

02Pilot
02Pilot UberDork
4/25/22 3:50 p.m.

In reply to eastsideTim :

It is an intriguing question. The Bryansk oil storage facility fire and several other murky reports of explosions in the area immediately adjoining Ukraine's border suggest drone strikes. The research facility in Tver is a different matter, given that it's north of Moscow. Could be a simple, if very oddly timed, accident; could be deliberate, but if it was, then the even more interesting question arises: who?

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
4/25/22 4:33 p.m.

An important point to remember is that there of course are many in Ukraine who can easily pass for Russian and even natively speak the language.  There were many reported cases (by Ukraine) of Russian "sabotures" being caught in Ukraine.  Most likely scouting, but there also are those hit squads we heard about.

There is also the potential that defense related industries in Russia are under extreme demand right now, and sometimes, equipment, and people, are just not up to the demand.

Kreb (Forum Supporter)
Kreb (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
4/25/22 4:57 p.m.
02Pilot said:

In reply to eastsideTim :

It is an intriguing question. The Bryansk oil storage facility fire and several other murky reports of explosions in the area immediately adjoining Ukraine's border suggest drone strikes. The research facility in Tver is a different matter, given that it's north of Moscow. Could be a simple, if very oddly timed, accident; could be deliberate, but if it was, then the even more interesting question arises: who?

Re Tver, it does make one wonder if some Russian Scientist has family in Ukraine, a dog in this fight and C4 in a duffel? My old college professor's mom was from Ukraine and father from Russia. She has zero allegiance to Russia - all in with Ukraine and would gladly slash Putin's throat if she got within distance. 

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
4/25/22 10:36 p.m.

More insightful comments from the Russian Herman Munster:

Russian FM Lavrov: NATO de-facto entered proxy war with Russia with weapons supply to Ukraine

No S, captain obvious.

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov threatens with real probability of beginning of the Third World War

Ohhhh, and can your dad beat up my dad?

Pete. (l33t FS)
Pete. (l33t FS) GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
4/25/22 11:35 p.m.

In reply to aircooled :

They're getting their asses kicked by a much smaller army that took a crash course in becoming a modern military in the past eight years or so, as well as civilians protecting their homeland.  I'm not sure Russia could offer anything more other than getting their asses kicked even harder.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
4/26/22 1:38 a.m.

Just when you thought the Russians couldn't go any lower:

Russian Troops to Desperate Mom: Pay Ransom or We’ll Kill Your Son on Video

https://news.yahoo.com/russian-troops-desperate-mom-pay-104132679.html

02Pilot
02Pilot UberDork
4/26/22 7:08 a.m.

Sweden and Finland have announced NATO bids, and all signs are that NATO will happily accept them. This is going to tighten the screws on Russia quite a bit, which I'm not sure is a good thing right now, at least not in this manner. Not that Scandinavia is a poor fit for NATO - in many ways, it makes a lot of sense - but I don't know that the timing is right. More pressure on Putin, sure, but not the sort of pressure that's likely to make him think about a cease-fire; rather, the sort that will probably make him look for ways to apply counter-pressure (once NATO expands, it's not going to contract once the war ends, so Putin will realize that he has to play an aggressive hand, as a cooperative one won't get him anything). He doesn't have a lot of options, and that's not a good place to push him. Cyber attacks, more conventional and nuclear sabre-rattling, and likely the end of any sort of cooperation in other areas should be expected. Russia will redouble efforts to keep India at least neutral, and probably tighten ties with China (as much as the Chinese will let them, anyway).

In the longer term, I do wonder exactly how long NATO is going to last, specifically as a US-led organization. When it was formed, the US was the only power that could provide the necessary economic and military support to deter the Soviets. With a much-expanded European membership, many with capable defense industries and robust economies, and two with their own nuclear deterrent forces, the US role is far less critical. Depending on how the current crisis is resolved, I could envision a time down the road where there will be calls on both sides of the Atlantic for a transition of NATO to a European defense organization. This has risks, but it also allows the US to shift focus to the Pacific, where its allies are far less capable overall and China presents a more significant, if currently latent, threat.

Edit: Carl Bildt article on this from Foreign Affairs.

02Pilot
02Pilot UberDork
4/26/22 8:57 a.m.

Multiple explosions reported in Transnistria, targeting radio transmitters and the headquarters of state security. Moldova states they will try to deescalate the situation, though what role (if any) they have in this is unknown. No information I have seen offers any further details. This gets curiouser and curiouser....

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