History in the Making: Russian Invasion

I really don't understand where you are getting the "install medium range ballistic missiles" thing.  I don't know of any intention of that. It sounds very much like you are describing the Turkey / Cuba situation in the early 60's.  I don't even think the US has any medium range ballistic missiles (!?) 

For those who don't know, the US admitted Turkey to NATO (a real stretch that one was, and is very related to the current situation).  The primary reason NATO did that I believe (Turkey has some strange leanings and an historic enemy of the NATO member Greece) was so that NATO could put airbases in Turkey to do overflights of the Soviets (U2, Frances Gary Powers etc).  They eventual did install medium range nuclear missiles there also, and that is what inspired the Soviets to more towards installing medium range nukes in Cuba (enter Cuban missile crisis).

Also, there is the INF treaty.  That treaty was the result of the fear of the exact thing you describe (effectively rapid first strike).  You might say... but, submarines... well..  You might also say, didn't the US just back out of that treaty?!  Well yes... you want to guess why?  Because Russia was clearly ignoring it / violating it!!! (by developing medium range strike missiles).  Also, China is not bound by it, so... it was only affecting the US!!

Regarding the US / Mexico scenario:  Obviously the US would not want Soviet Bock nation on their boarder (e.g. Cuba).  But, and I ask you, in response to that potential, would the US mass troops on the boarder of Mexico, practice shooting things, and sit there, staring across the boarder, as a negotiating tactics as to why the US is NOT a threat to Mexico!?!     

Another crazy theory time:  Was Feb 16th, the Russians AF?

OK, so the US (and others) seemed very confident there was solid information  / intention of a Russian invasion on the 16th.  Clearly that did not happen, but why was it such a strong certainty.  My crazy theory (!) is that this may have been a Russia intentional leak who purpose was to to see what avenue information was being leaked through, or the most effective channel to distribute BS. 

For those who don't know the AF reference.  Previous to the battle of Midway (WWII), the US had broken the secret code of the Japanese Navy, so they got all their messages, but... did not know what some of their code words referred to. There was a lot of traffic about location "AF", which they suspected was Midway, but wanted to confirm.  So, there solution was to send an open / unencrypted transmission noting that Midways desalination plant was down.  Of course there was eventually a Japanese transmission that noted that AF's desalination plant was down! 

https://www.history.com/news/battle-midway-codebreakers-allies-pacific-theater

Interesting development (perhaps this Ukrainian aggression requires a bit of therapeutic invasion):

A massive explosion in the center of Donetsk on Friday evening was the work of a car bomb that detonated outside the government headquarters, the authorities in the breakaway region in eastern Ukraine have said.

Multiple reports of the blast came shortly after both Donetsk and Lugansk, the two regions that seceded from Ukraine in 2014, announced an evacuation of civilians into Russia, fearing an attack by the Ukrainian military. 

I feel it's worth noting that, given the circumstances, Munich was an exceptionally poor choice of location to hold an international conference on this issue.

....but... what if they come back with an agreement?  Then they can declare "we have peace in our time"

President of the US now claims he is "certain" that Russia will invade. And something about sanctions. 

We're either being epically stupid...or there's something else going on and the Ukraine is just a convenient cover.

Well, the Olympics are over this weekend, play fighting is over, forces are even more built up, "Ukrainians" (ahem), are bombing ethnic Russian separatists....

... seems like it's sh&t or get of the pot time for Putin....

In reply to volvoclearinghouse :

Well Russia filmed the D and L evacuation videos two days ago, so...

volvoclearinghouse said:

President of the US now claims he is "certain" that Russia will invade. And something about sanctions. 

We're either being epically stupid...or there's something else going on and the Ukraine is just a convenient cover.

There are a lot of ethnic Ukrainians in my area, and the general feeling is why are we not doing more, not why are we involved.

Interesting that one of the sanctions on the table is cutting Germany off from Russian gas.  I wonder if the Germans are aware of this.

In reply to Pete. (l33t FS) :

I wonder how the attitudes of Ukrainians who now reside in a country that is not Ukraine - and are listening to the American press, which has been going pretty hard on Russian Invasion - differs from Ukrainians living in, well, the Ukraine.  

The US also seems to think an attack on Kiev is likely.  I am not sure there is much reason to attack Kiev unless you are taking the entire country.  Perhaps an attempt to disrupt command and control?  An attempt to demoralize?

Refugees from Donbass Regina are arriving in Russia.  They are evacuating in anticipation of an attack.... by Ukraine.... which I guess makes sense in Russia. One wonders how Russia will fake an invasion? Maybe not even bother, just use that as the story for inside Russia.

Apparently the meta data of the video of the refugees was found to be two days old!  Oops!  Must be a Ukrainian plot.

The Russian parliament has recognized the breakaway republics as legitimate countries... not a good sign at all.

Some more "Ukrainian" attacks on a gas pipeline and gas station in Donetsk.

I don't know about anyone else, but I think I might be getting some gas this weekend, while it is still "cheap"....

This is starting to look very likely now.

I wish the best for the Ukrainians and hope they make them pay a high price, but, realistically, he could just roll into the breakaway regions, be hailed as a liberator, and do almost no fighting!

Military action is looking increasingly likely, though the sort of incremental escalation we've seen in the last few days suggests Putin would still prefer a negotiated settlement of some sort. I think he will be disappointed, as the West is unwilling to budge on the key issues. What form a move against Ukraine proper will take is anybody's guess, though I think Putin is more likely to set objectives that are intended to destabilize the government there, rather than outright occupation.

On a related note, Poland has just announced a $6bn deal for 250 Abrams MBTs, which I'm sure is not at all what Putin was hoping for.

Alexander Vindman and Dominic Cruz Bustillos laid out three different possible endings for the conflict in last month's Foreign Affairs:

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-01-21/day-after-russia-attacks

If they invade, i hope our sanctions include the seizure and forfeiture of all assets ($/stocks/real estate/etc) the russian oligarchs are holding in the US.  No time for them to sell, no waiting to unwind dozens of shell companies, just BAM, these are frozen, now we'll start unwinding them, and let you know if there's anything left when its over.  Treat it like drug seizures.  Or war crimes/treason by a hostile nation.  No beach mansion in miami for you.  
 

If we can do it (criminally and mistakenly) to our own citizens who are trying to buy cars with cash and innocent situations like that, we can damn sure use it for its intended purpose and catch some real criminals. 

Couple of interesting observations regarding air traffic:

- Commercial traffic is still operating over western two-thirds of Ukraine. If hostilities were imminent in that area I'd be surprised to see commercial flights in the air (these seem to be scheduled passenger flights, not freight charters).

- No US or RAF surveillance aircraft operating openly over Ukraine right now (not to say they aren't there), but three US tankers operating over Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania. They're not there sightseeing, so I'm sure there are multiple platforms working the AO.

In reply to 02Pilot :

Not looking good for your theories.

I think this is not playing out like Putin wanted it to. Instead of watching a weak west, EU and UN fall apart and appease a la Chamberlain, he's seeing Ukraine galvanized against Russia, the EU act rather strong, even with a weak White House response, China not jumping in to help antagonize, and the Easternmost UN member states building up.

If this fails, and he leaves with his tail between his legs without firing a shot, I would not be surprised to see regime change in Russia. I'm not convinced what that would look like, or if it would be better, but that's what I see.

Watch from here to about 7:09 to see why appeasement doesn't work. Putin is pulling right from Hitler's playbook here. Since he's not hell-bent on destroying every group he deems racially incorrect, he has a better chance at succeeding.

Now Putin is talking about recognizing "separatist states" inside Ukraine.

This would give the pretext of responding to a "request for aid" to help them separate.

tuna55 said:

If this fails, and he leaves with his tail between his legs without firing a shot, I would not be surprised to see regime change in Russia. I'm not convinced what that would look like, or if it would be better, but that's what I see.

This is what has me afraid the invasion is going to happen regardless.  If there is regime change in Russia, I strongly doubt he'll be a free man (or even alive) once it is over.  He may just burn it all down in an effort to stay in power.

bobzilla said:

In reply to 02Pilot :

Not looking good for your theories.

If I could predict the future, I'd be paid a lot more.

In all seriousness, however, I still don't think this is headed for a full-blown invasion unless Putin really feels he has no other choice. Apparently he's going to announce Russian recognition of the breakaway regions of Ukraine. That's a far cry from invasion, or even annexation. There's only one reason for such a slow, incremental approach: to give the West more time to offer something that he actually wants. If the primary purposes of fomenting this crisis were to 1) halt NATO expansion, 2) undermine Ukrainian democracy, and 3) reinforce his domestic position, recognizing the breakaway regions only hits #3, and not very strongly. If he can get some sort of deal out of Biden at this rumored summit that covers either #1 or #2, I think he'd be happy to declare victory and pull troops out starting the next day. But if Biden stonewalls and says no deal until you pull the troops back, then Putin knows his options are closed and goes in.

There's all sorts of interesting potential alliance dynamics internal to NATO that will become issues if Russia invades, but I'll leave that discussion for later.

In reply to 02Pilot :

The problem is the regions Putin is trying to annex are not whole. Ukraine solidly holds well more than half of both of them and has since the 2014 invasion. What Putin is doing is saying "I touched it now the whole thing is mine".

His speech was an unhinged rant of delusions and his officials all looked terrified. He's a desperate man trying to cling to his internal power and knows that if this gambit fails he's done for.

eastsideTim said:

tuna55 said:

If this fails, and he leaves with his tail between his legs without firing a shot, I would not be surprised to see regime change in Russia. I'm not convinced what that would look like, or if it would be better, but that's what I see.

This is what has me afraid the invasion is going to happen regardless.  If there is regime change in Russia, I strongly doubt he'll be a free man (or even alive) once it is over.  He may just burn it all down in an effort to stay in power.

Absolutely. There are zero ex dictators. They all die. That's what's making him desperate. He's started something he both can't finish and can't walk away from. 

Honsch said:

Now Putin is talking about recognizing "separatist states" inside Ukraine.

This would give the pretext of responding to a "request for aid" to help them separate.

This is downright silly. I'm going to try recognizing my neighbors yard as mine. 

That word,I don't think it means what you think it means. 

Javelin said:

He's a desperate man trying to cling to his internal power and knows that if this gambit fails he's done for.

That's exactly what I'm worried about. 

And from what little news I get through the algorithms that feed such things to me, it doesn't look much like the west is willing to give up much (if anything at all...).  By the looks of it, even previously silent Germany finally spoke up:

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/is-germany-finally-standing-up-to-russia-