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93EXCivic
93EXCivic MegaDork
2/22/22 12:06 p.m.

I think that all in all the US/NATO/EU response to Russia has been fairly good.

Sending troops into Ukraine is a non-starter. Pulling troops back from Eastern European NATO nations is a non-starter. That leaves Ukraine into NATO our one negotiating tactic but that is tricky at best. Starting with only limited sanctions to the move in the separatists regions shows that we are serious about countering Russian aggression. If we had of launched full scale sanctions, there is no reason for Russia not to invade. But I hope there are being strong sanctions prepared to be deployed in case of large scale military action by Russia that could include full restriction of any import/export with Russia. Really all that can be done is sanctions and making the Ukrainian military as letal as possible.

I was surprised by Germans move on the pipeline.

Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter)
Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
2/22/22 12:16 p.m.

In reply to 02Pilot :

Yeah, I gotta defer to your expertise on that one.  Beyond what I may have thought I learned from the occasional infographics video on youtube (or similar), I have no in-depth knowledge (and it sounds like that is a much deeper pool than I could have ever thought). laugh

 

I still really really hope it's not, and doesn't end up, like '56.

02Pilot
02Pilot UberDork
2/22/22 12:37 p.m.

In reply to Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) :

If you're interested, David Fromkin's Europe's Last Summer is a good introduction to events of the summer of 1914. Pieter Judson's relatively recent The Habsburg Empire goes into some depth on the issues inside the Austro-Hungarian Empire (though I don't agree with all of his conclusions).

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
2/22/22 1:09 p.m.

Some weird info:   Why the Hat?

This is a typical mod to Russian tanks apparently.  Why the hat?  That appears to be an attempt to counteract the attack profile of the Javelin missile of which Ukraine has been supplied many of.  The Javelin can be fired from inside a building or cover (no back blast) and is a fire and forget missile (identify target, launch and the missile does the rest), so it could be used pretty safely most times.  It follows a high, top attack, profile to go after the (generally much thinner) top armor, specifically the turret.  It is also a shaped charge warhead, so it needs to detonate on the armor.  The "hat" appears to be an attempt to set the warhead off early (same idea as armor skirts which you will see sometimes).  You can also see the reactive armor packs which do a similar thing by fighting an explosion with a counter explosion(!)

Do you see any minor issue with this approach?  Here is the Javelin attack profile:

Looks to me like the typical approach angle is about 45 deg.  It seems like this will miss the hat in most cases.  The hat may also be to defend against suicide drones, but I am not sure those are a huge threat to tanks (they have been used against artillery).

Based on the pic above alone, I would guess maybe a 50% chance at best of the missile hitting the reactive armor (assuming it's trying to hit the turret).  Even still, the warhead appears to have a bit of a "double tap" warhead that is meant to set off the reactive armor with the first explosive and hit the armor with the second.

I guess there are some Russian tankers who are about to find out....

(self edit):  In looking at the scales in that graph, it appears the actual angle will be much lower, but it looks like the missile might make a more aggressive turn at the end.  BTW, it looks like the Ukrainians have tested this defense.  It does not work.

AAZCD-Jon (Forum Supporter)
AAZCD-Jon (Forum Supporter) SuperDork
2/22/22 1:13 p.m.

EU countries should unilaterally declare a joint peace-keeping mission with Russia. Roll some armor, recon, and logistics (Armored Cav would do initially) into the disputed zones alongside the Russian forces 'to assist'.

When we went into Kosovo, the Russians did that to us and made a beeline to the the airfield in Pristina, taking the real estate there to protect ...assets that they preferred NATO not capture.

stroker
stroker UberDork
2/22/22 1:38 p.m.

While I'm glad they don't exist, this situation makes me think of "Rods From God" solutions...

Javelin
Javelin GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
2/22/22 2:38 p.m.

93EXCivic
93EXCivic MegaDork
2/22/22 3:32 p.m.

In reply to Javelin :

I hate to say it but I am increasing leaning towards a full scale invasion of Ukraine is coming. Having recognized these two break away "republics", I would be surprised if the Russian forces don't launch a full scale assaults to take all of both Oblasts. When the Ukrainian army fights back, they will claim it is justification to strike at Kyiv.

Error404
Error404 HalfDork
2/22/22 3:53 p.m.

In reply to 93EXCivic :

He's currently getting away with (using that somewhat lightly) sending in "peacekeepers" after an 8yr insurgency. It's nicely set up so that Ukraine (whilst perpetuating a "genocide") can't keep their territory without being the "aggressor". I think the idea of sending in multi-lateral peacekeepers has some merit to defuse the situation but then you're stuck with the new soviet states and their faux independence. 

I'm less concerned about a full scale invasion of Ukraine than I am about the other shoe halfway around the world. I am of the opinion that China is very closely watching reactions and movements to make the Go/No Go on making Taiwan the right kind of Chinese, subjugated Han. Part of the calculus has got to be inducing some paralysis in the US by giving us a no front war or a two front war and making us choose. 

Edit: I think a full-scale invasion is less-likely than settling in to the new lines and sending over more little green men. If he can get it done without dead troops being sent home it would probably help him at home. Particularly once the Russian nationalists get all worked up over him pulling one over on the West. "Peacekeepers" draw new lines, infrastructure is built, a proxy state is propped up, and ethnic Russians are emigrated deeper into Ukraine for Phase 3.

trigun7469
trigun7469 UltraDork
2/22/22 4:06 p.m.

In reply to Error404 :

I am surprised N.Korea isn't surfacing making it a 3 front war for the US, to choose. How can the US and NATO intervene in either of these conflicts when Russia and China are such a overmatch of Ukraine and Taiwan, wouldn't the war be over in 2-3 days.

Javelin
Javelin GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
2/22/22 4:08 p.m.

China on Taiwan is a whole different ball game that isn't gonna happen for numerous reasons. That would need it's own thread. 

tuna55
tuna55 MegaDork
2/22/22 4:09 p.m.
trigun7469 said:

In reply to Error404 :

I am surprised N.Korea isn't surfacing making it a 3 front war for the US, to choose. How can the US and NATO intervene in either of these conflicts when Russia and China are such a overmatch of Ukraine and Taiwan, wouldn't the war be over in 2-3 days.

See Iraq/Iran in the 80s, I think Ukraine and Taiwan are going to fight harder than you think.

93EXCivic
93EXCivic MegaDork
2/22/22 4:14 p.m.
trigun7469 said:

In reply to Error404 :

I am surprised N.Korea isn't surfacing making it a 3 front war for the US, to choose. How can the US and NATO intervene in either of these conflicts when Russia and China are such a overmatch of Ukraine and Taiwan, wouldn't the war be over in 2-3 days.

I don't think a war would be over in 2-3 days in Ukraine. For one, current troop levels of Russian troops around Ukraine don't greatly outnumber Ukrainian troops and that is without considering the large number of reserves that Ukraine has. The Ukraine army of today isn't the one from 2014. They have had a lot more training, is a lot larger and have a lot more weapons. From what I have heard via sister in law's family in Ukraine is that nationalism is very high there and no one plans on surrending easily. So taking over Ukraine completely looks to me like it would be a bloody building by building fight in the cities.

trigun7469
trigun7469 UltraDork
2/22/22 4:30 p.m.

In reply to 93EXCivic :

Found some interesting information here as well comparing 2014 to now https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-possible-invasion-ukraine 

Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter)
Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
2/23/22 10:29 a.m.

Something from Heather Cox Richardson that I thought was informative.

February 22, 2022 (Tuesday)

Today Russian president Vladimir Putin said he’s recognizing the full territories claimed by the upstart governments of Ukrainian eastern provinces Luhansk and Donetsk. Josh Kovensky of Talking Points Memo points out that since those governments only control about a third and a half of the territory, respectively, in those provinces, this recognition would mean that Ukraine is occupying land that belongs to those breakaway regions.

Today, the European Union led the way on announcing sanctions against members of Russia’s leadership, reinforcing the idea of international cooperation against Putin. The E.U.’s 27 member states unanimously agreed to freeze the assets and ban the visas of 351 members of the Duma, the Russian government’s lower house of parliament, who backed recognition of the rogue governments within Ukraine.

The U.K. followed suit, sanctioning three "high net worth individuals" in Russia and five major Russian banks.

Germany halted certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany, a project worth up to $15 billion to Russia.

... (The) U.S. has imposed sanctions on two Russian banks, one of which is associated with the Russian military, and five individuals, including one who is in charge of VK, Russia’s largest social media network, and one that is listed on the London Stock Exchange. It also sanctioned Russia’s debt, cutting off its access to western financing.

The U.S. has gone after Russia’s ability to fund military contracts and raise new money to attack Ukraine. It also is joining with other nations to put the squeeze on what the Treasury Department calls “influential Russians and their family members in Putin’s inner circle believed to be participating in the Russian regime’s kleptocracy.” The goal, according to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, is to “begin the process of dismantling the Kremlin’s financial network and its ability to fund destabilizing activity in Ukraine and around the world.”

This first group of sanctions seems carefully targeted to hit Putin’s inner circle without sweeping in the Russian people. By applying pressure gradually, it also maintains leverage to try to dissuade Putin from escalating, which would not be the case if the U.S. threw everything at Russia immediately, leaving Putin no reason to change course. And yet, those sanctions remain on the table. Yellen said, “We continue to monitor Russia’s actions and if it further invades Ukraine, the United States will swiftly impose expansive economic sanctions that will have a severe and lasting impact on Russia’s economy.”

...

 

Mr_Asa
Mr_Asa PowerDork
2/23/22 11:06 a.m.

Saw something on the news that Ukraine is drafting reservists.  Age 18-60.

llysgennad
llysgennad Reader
2/23/22 11:40 a.m.

Have sanctions ever worked against Russia? Or the oligarchs? Doesn't seem like it.  And we keep buying their gold through back channels, so it seems more disingenuous all the time.

I think this will require an unorthodox  military response to save Ukraine. Pushing back where they are pushing in will not work. I'm not a expert by any means, just my thoughts.

eastsideTim
eastsideTim PowerDork
2/23/22 11:54 a.m.

Based on who is being targeted, it looks to me like they are trying to make life more uncomfortable for anyone who could be seen as backing Putin.  If he is already on shaky ground domestically, it could lead to an internal power struggle.

93EXCivic
93EXCivic MegaDork
2/23/22 12:00 p.m.

In reply to eastsideTim :

I think that the target of the sanctions needs to not only be the oligarchs but the politicians who approved the moves. Freezing or seizing assests could certainly make Putin uncomfortable.

llysgennad
llysgennad Reader
2/23/22 12:20 p.m.

They (EU) are targeting politicians, as noted by Hungary Bill's post above. But if the members of the Duma are (rightly) more concerned about not supporting Putin than they are about their lunch money or traveling to Europe, then it does nothing. Only a bloody war, going badly, will turn the people far enough to drop Putin.

bearmtnmartin (Forum Supporter)
bearmtnmartin (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand UltraDork
2/23/22 12:39 p.m.

Germany suspended the pipeline, as opposed to cancelling it. I think Russia is counting on political and economic expediency in the years following them adding Ukraine to their territory. Europe will stilll want gas, countries will still want Ukranian(Russian) wheat, and memories are short. A few years of economic pain, a few dead soldiers, and back in business.

Noddaz
Noddaz GRM+ Memberand UberDork
2/23/22 1:26 p.m.

And I was wrong.  I really did not think this would happen.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
2/23/22 5:47 p.m.

Well, Putin has done the easy part.  He is "saving" the ethnic Russians, but only the ones that welcome him.  He (appears) to still need some sort of justification to "save" the rest of them.  You would almost respect him more if just said "F it" I am taking what I want!  These games are rather silly and very transparent.  Everyone is still waiting for that, less than entirely believable, action that will be the justification.

Russia has it's own sanctions it can deploy.  I believe they supply 1/3 of the natural gas to Europe.  They have already threatened massive price increases.  There is no way the west will create sanctions where it will really hurt Russia, the energy sector.

The freezing of trading on Russian dept does not apply until next month and does not apply to former debt, so...   I am sure the oligarchs in Russia have plenty of money stashed away... they will be fine. Nord Stream 2 appears to be halted, but not ended.

There is indications that the Russian economy is not good and I don't see how these shenanigans will help.  Apparently there are more sanctions coming. 

A good chart to note (Share of gas supplied from Russia):

Advan046
Advan046 UltraDork
2/23/22 6:43 p.m.

I have been curious if the leadership of Russia are seeking something other than the Ukraine. Is this driving so much attention such that they can commit some other action internally and avoid any interest? Similar to the Chinese re-education programs in Western China being constantly fought against as even a valid topic by their government and media team. 

I still think it would be a great move to shift all of Nato to a massive humanitarian mission as AAZCD-JON mentioned. Or just invite Russia into Nato and the EU. It feels all weird that we are even fighting Russia still. Kind of like if I ran into an old high school classmate and despite living in another part of the country and with no kids they still go to the old high school to prank the rival schools before the homecoming games.

Just feels weird. 

I wonder how NATO would handle things if Russia baited them to invade and defeat Russia, topple the government? Who would fund the nation building of Russia? How long would the guerrilla war last? Would all the oligarchs cash in and move over into the EU having stripped their home country?

 

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
2/23/22 6:53 p.m.

I think your high school analogy has promise.  The way I think of it is that there was this bully in high school that was a terror to everyone.  You visit your town years later to find out that that same bully is now a town cop, going around pretending he is still "king of the school" and bending laws / rules as much as possible to take advantage of every situation.

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