Here is another very useful and up to date source of info. This site was a super useful way to keep track of what the current situation was in Syria (ISIS). E.g. the latest update, as of posting, is that Russia has closed the boarder to civilian air traffic.
As you can clearly see, there has been a large number of shelling. Showing a lot of equipment still near (pointing at) Kiev.
Yesterday. We don't care about sanctions.
today. Remove sanctions or we attack sensitive targets.
bearmtnmartin (Forum Supporter) said:Germany suspended the pipeline, as opposed to cancelling it. I think Russia is counting on political and economic expediency in the years following them adding Ukraine to their territory. Europe will stilll want gas, countries will still want Ukranian(Russian) wheat, and memories are short. A few years of economic pain, a few dead soldiers, and back in business.
I worry that you are right. I hope you are wrong but I worry you are right.
We have also seen the brutally with which Russia has acted in Syria and I am so worried for the people of Ukraine. I hope my sister in laws family will be OK.
It started. Russian troops reportedly in Mauripol. Heavy fighting.
Putin in an address declares military operation against Ukraine
Putin: NATO has crossed a red line. Collision is imminent
Looks like they are bombing Mauripol. Massive artillery (missiles) barrages along the front lines.
Blasts heard in Kyiv.
WWIII has begun. Hug your kids.
He was quoted as saying he has authorized a "special military action" in Eastern Ukraine and that his goal is to start dearming and denazification of in the east. Any Ukraine forces that out down arms will be allowed to leave and that they don't want to invade just occupy the eastern part.
Of course I think a lot of that are half-truths.
Wonder if Ukraine kept a suitcase nuke or two in reserve...you know...just in case...
It's happening
In reply to EricM :
Pretty much figured it would. Lots of reasons why now is better than before but we can't talk about it.
I don't understand what Putin thinks he is going to achieve here. Even if he overthrows the government and installs a puppet government, the Ukrainian people have already shown they are willing to overthrow a pro-Russian government and now there is even more anti-Russian sentiment then before. An occupation seems like it would long, bloody and expensive.
93EXCivic said:I don't understand what Putin thinks he is going to achieve here. Even if he overthrows the government and installs a puppet government, the Ukrainian people have already shown they are willing to overthrow a pro-Russian government and now there is even more anti-Russian sentiment then before. An occupation seems like it would long, bloody and expensive.
That's what I'm thinking (hoping?). Russia thought it could conquer Chechnya quickly, but it turned into a 10-year quagmire for them. Ukraine seems like it could be much worse. Much bigger country with a much bigger population, and while it's military is no match for Russia's, it's no joke, either. They could easily mount a multi-year guerilla campaign that will bleed Russian troops and money, while severe sanctions from the west compound the damage.
What's the upside for Russia?
Javelin said:WWIII has begun. Hug your kids.
Lol.
No need for hysterics.
This isnt even close to WWIII. If for no reason then the militaries of Western Europe are so atrophied that they are unable to engage in sustained military operations against a capable adversary.
The US is certainly not going to go kinetic against the Russians over Ukraine - or really anyone in NATO, treaties be damned, because the American people arent going to support a war in Europe.
Now if China eventually takes Taiwan - which at some point they will - it will signal the fall of the United States as the lone Super Power of the globe and illustrate the ascent of the PRC as a peer to the US as far as global power projection.
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FatMongo said:The US is certainly not going to go kinetic against the Russians over Ukraine - or really anyone in NATO, treaties be damned, because the American people arent going to support a war in Europe.
I don't think Article 5 says to take a poll of American sentiment before defending a NATO nation who is under attack. It's also difficult to imagine a non-nuclear war between NATO and Russia.
In reply to CrustyRedXpress :
Yeah. There is no way we would not support our fellow NATO countries and if that happened, I am scared to think what happens next.
At this point, I don't think Putin is acting rationally anymore. I hate to think what his next move is.
In reply to Tom_Spangler (Forum Supporter) :
I thought about that as well Putin has a really big ego, and if they are trying to destabilize the western world, to claim what is theirs, seems like it could cause more damage then help. In addition Ukraine is being fed military weapons from the USA and GB, (I imagine not for free) Ukraine is much more powerful then Afghanistan (Soviet–Afghan War). The reaction from F1 from the situation is both comical and sad.
93EXCivic said:In reply to CrustyRedXpress :
Yeah. There is no way we would not support our fellow NATO countries and if that happened, I am scared to think what happens next.
At this point, I don't think Putin is acting rationally anymore. I hate to think what his next move is.
I'm with you on this, at this point he's gone irrational as far as I can see. He does not have a reasonable way out, and a trapped Putin is worse.
CrustyRedXpress said:FatMongo said:The US is certainly not going to go kinetic against the Russians over Ukraine - or really anyone in NATO, treaties be damned, because the American people arent going to support a war in Europe.
I don't think Article 5 says to take a poll of American sentiment before defending a NATO nation who is under attack. It's also difficult to imagine a non-nuclear war between NATO and Russia.
This isnt the 50's anymore.
If you think this Administration is going to engage in a land war in Europe because of NATO and that the US public is going to support that, under current economic conditions especially, you are out of your mind.
The Brits, French, and Poles can more than hold their own. Everyone else is E36 M3 out of luck and better develop a taste for borscht and vodka.
There is essentially a zero possibility of any nuclear exchange in Europe short of a Russian first strike. The Russians are incapable of presenting an existential threat to the UK in a conventional manner and would also not mess with th French.
Sanctions, right.
Russia can get anything it wants from China, including money.
Just what will sanctions do?
Tom_Spangler (Forum Supporter) said:93EXCivic said:I don't understand what Putin thinks he is going to achieve here. Even if he overthrows the government and installs a puppet government, the Ukrainian people have already shown they are willing to overthrow a pro-Russian government and now there is even more anti-Russian sentiment then before. An occupation seems like it would long, bloody and expensive.
That's what I'm thinking (hoping?). Russia thought it could conquer Chechnya quickly, but it turned into a 10-year quagmire for them. Ukraine seems like it could be much worse. Much bigger country with a much bigger population, and while it's military is no match for Russia's, it's no joke, either. They could easily mount a multi-year guerilla campaign that will bleed Russian troops and money, while severe sanctions from the west compound the damage.
What's the upside for Russia?
I don't think this is about Russia. I think it's about Putin.
If you step back and look at things objectively this isn't stable and won't last all that long. If you care about the long term health and stability of the Russian people, this is the wrong choice.
I think Putin cares about Putin. I think this is about his pride. He wants to see a return to the great days of the glorious USSR. The dude is 69. How much longer does he have to live? How much longer does he have to rule? If he berks this up and it's untenable and he can only hold Ukraine by force, he can do that for the 10-20 years that he remains in power. Whoever comes in after him can oversee the collapse.
He at least gets to see out the rest of his time in power as the Glorious Leader. He probaby gets to die as the Glorious Leader.
Well E36 M3. I have been waiting to wake up to this.
Noddaz said: ...Just what will sanctions do?
Sanctions are a way of saying, "We care. See, we did something!" ...then move-on to using the crisis to advance your domestic policy.
The US, and the world, pushed Putin into this corner. He started bombing Kiev last night - no where near the Russian border. He's an old man and who knows- maybe he's got liver disease and got a year to live. WW3 this doesn't appear to be, but after the US Afghanistan withdrawal and the greenlight on Nord Stream, Russia calculated it had some leverage, apparently. The US went from net energy independence to importing roughly 10 pct of it's oil from...Russia. they've got arms they can twist now. And they're twisting them good and hard.
Lest we not forget there's an election coming up here in 8 months, with a party in power suffering badly, if the current polling is somewhat correct. War makes a convenient distraction, though everyone sees the prices at the pump now. I filled up at 3.39 yesterday, and I bet it hits 4 bucks before it goes lower.
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