History in the Making: Russian Invasion

bearmtnmartin (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to Kreb (Forum Supporter) :

There is in fairness very little critical thinking going on right now in terms of assessing the progress of the war. We are of course only fed Ukraine positive information which we lap up. You only hear about Ukraine successes and Russian failures, and most stories I read have their roots in the Ukraine. I am sure Ukraine is as adept at propaganda as Russia.

As long as you filter the sum of the information...  Like seeing some of the back of the curtain info coming from Russia, or just seeing the lines of control that is a combination of info coming from both sides.

The way I'm seeing it now- Ukraine pretty much had to survive Russia's tech hardware as best they could- which it appears that they were able to.  And now that Russia is leaning on just the pure mass of hardware (which everyone thought would win the war for them within a month)- the tactics seem to work well with a tech advantage but not a numerical advantage.  Seems.

Hard to really think Ukraine is winning this war, but at this point, it does seem clear that Russia isn't winning, and had a long way to go if they really want to win this.  Even the scaled back goals seem to be in jeapardy.  

In reply to alfadriver :

Sometimes not losing is enough. The Vietnamese communists didn't win a battle between 1954 and 1975 (minor skirmishes notwithstanding), and still came out on top in the end. Ukraine could easily not lose, or to put it another way, could prevent Russia from winning, for years.

In reply to 02Pilot :

I think more relevant to this adventure is the USSR and Afghanistan.  But Ukraine has far more direct support from the rest of the world.

The one part I still can't fathom is this has obviously set Russia back decades in terms of it's economy relative to how it interacts with the rest of the world.  Why in the world are they still at this- other than taking over Ukraine, they have already lost the war- who is going to buy oil from them?  And they have very much accelerated the turn from HC based energy in the EU- which will hurt oil sales world wide.  Russia has fewer people to trade with than the USSR did- and we know how that ended. 

In reply to alfadriver :

A last hurrah for Putin?  Last chance to regain some semblance of past Soviet glory?  He has to know (or have been told) that given the pre-invasion Russian economy the prospects for growth both economically and militarily were limited.  They have a fossil fuels driven economy in world that is on the verge of conversion to other sources of energy (renewables, Solar, nuclear, etc.), and they basically have no other indigenous industry other than Defense and distillery for export income.  They are losing standing in the world and can no longer call China a "little brother" or even a peer competitor, as they have been surpassed both economically and militarily by China.  IMO This is part of a calculated campaign to arrest the slide of Russia into mediocrity and irrevelance, but this has backfired as the once vaunted Russian (Soviet) armed forces appear to be a bit of a paper tiger now.  The major (unintended) benefactors of all of this are China and to a lesser extent India, as they now can buy all the Russian crude they want for well below market prices because Russia is now a pariah to the west.  And, the likelihood of confrontation between China and Russia is all but eliminated as Russia will become a defacto client state as China will become it's biggest trading partner.  Forgive my rambling, just my .02  

In reply to 06HHR (Forum Supporter) :

Russia's economy even before the war was smaller than Canada's. They are a small insignificant country other than having left over soviet weapon stockpiles and nukes. 

In reply to 06HHR (Forum Supporter) :

The only "hurrah" I can even see is "I have so much power that I can ruin my own country".  

Again, even if he took Ukraine in a month, nobody would ever trade with him in a serious manner.  With the trend away from HC based fuel, this was a no win war in the long run.

As opposed to a gradual change to use the HC money to build a more diverse economy.  One that would have made Ukraine WANT to be tied with Russia.  

I really just don't get it.

alfadriver said:

In reply to 06HHR (Forum Supporter) :

The only "hurrah" I can even see is "I have so much power that I can ruin my own country".  

Again, even if he took Ukraine in a month, nobody would ever trade with him in a serious manner.  With the trend away from HC based fuel, this was a no win war in the long run.

As opposed to a gradual change to use the HC money to build a more diverse economy.  One that would have made Ukraine WANT to be tied with Russia.  

I really just don't get it.

I've gotten nasty looks for this language on here before, but I agree. I think Putin is an irrational actor. There is not an upside for him, and it should have been evident from week 2 that there was never going to be one.

I am with the "I don't get the whole thing" camp. Was there ever anything to gain from starting this war with Ukraine? If so what?

I am a big believer in 20 year plans. So since the start, I have been asking myself how this was is going to make Russia a more successful country withing 20 years.  This will have to happen within one of three context.

1- Russia gets as much land from Ukraine as they want and essentially "wins" the war. 

2-Russia has to exit with what will be seen as a defeat and some peace agreement, maybe for the Donbas regions captured in 2014

3-The war goes on long term as it did in Afghanistan

tuna55 said:

alfadriver said:

In reply to 06HHR (Forum Supporter) :

The only "hurrah" I can even see is "I have so much power that I can ruin my own country".  

Again, even if he took Ukraine in a month, nobody would ever trade with him in a serious manner.  With the trend away from HC based fuel, this was a no win war in the long run.

As opposed to a gradual change to use the HC money to build a more diverse economy.  One that would have made Ukraine WANT to be tied with Russia.  

I really just don't get it.

I've gotten nasty looks for this language on here before, but I agree. I think Putin is an irrational actor. There is not an upside for him, and it should have been evident from week 2 that there was never going to be one.

The whole plan depended on continuing apathy from the EU and the west.  I'm certain he did not expect the level of solidarity and support for Ukraine from any of the western powers as there was no response from his previous incursions and the annexing of Crimea.   He badly overestimated the leverage he has over the EU and completely underestimated the resolve of the Ukrainian people.  I agree it makes absolutely no sense from our point of view (or strategically for that matter).

The Russians are not sure where to look.  While concentrating on one hand, the Ukrainians have snuck in a punch with the other (this is the north eastern area of Ukraine):

Ukrainian forces in southeastern Kharkiv Oblast are likely exploiting Russian force reallocation to the Southern Axis to conduct an opportunistic yet highly effective counteroffensive northwest of Izyum. Ukrainian forces likely used tactical surprise to advance at least 20km into Russian-held territory in eastern Kharkiv Oblast on September 7, recapturing approximately 400 square kilometers of ground. Russian sources claimed that Russian troops began deploying reinforcements to the area to defend against Ukrainian advances, and the Russian grouping in this area was likely understrength due to previous Russian deployments to support ongoing efforts to capture the remainder of Donetsk Oblast and support the southern axis.[1] Ukraine’s ongoing operations in Kherson Oblast have forced Russian forces to shift their focus to the south, enabling Ukrainian forces to launch localized but highly effective counterattacks in the Izyum area.[2] Russian milbloggers voiced concern that this Ukrainian counterattack seeks to cut ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Russian rear areas in Kupyansk and Izyum, which would allow Ukrainian troops to isolate the Russian groupings in these areas and retake large swaths of territory.[3] These milbloggers used largely panicked and despondent tones, acknowledged significant Ukrainian gains, and claimed that the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south may be a distraction from the ongoing actions in Kharkiv Oblast, which they name as the main Ukrainian effort.[4] The level of shock and frank discussion of Ukrainian successes by Russian milbloggers speaks to the scale of surprise achieved by Ukrainian forces, which is likely successfully demoralizing Russian forces. While it is unlikely that the southern counteroffensive and effort to attrit Russian forces in southern Ukraine is a feint for renewed operations in Kharkiv Oblast, Ukrainian forces likely took prudent advantage of a reallocation of Russian troops, equipment, and overall operational focus to launch localized counteroffensives toward critical points in Kharkiv Oblast.  

You can see the extent of it on this map (Kharkiv is the city with the truck icon on it).  They are very close to (if they have not already have) cutting off the supply routes to Izyum to the south.

Representative of General staff of Armed forces of Ukraine says over 20 settlements were liberated in Kharkiv region, in some areas penetration in Russian defense positions up to 50 kms

Maybe Pootin will drive world oil prices so low, we can globally admit that EVs are not ready for the world (and vice versa) and go back to cheap gas for everyone! He will be the hero of internal combustion!

In reply to NOHOME :

They cannot have a similar culture on their doorstep that is a thriving and prosperous democracy.  Makes them look bad, makes their people start asking questions.

In reply to 06HHR (Forum Supporter) :

Even if he took Ukraine in a month- what next?  Perhaps the EU would not have wanted to do something, but having a unstable system isn't exactly a way to enhance your global trade position.  And that was the most obvious outcome of any action he took.  

And that's the real reason I don't understand what the point was.  If the USSR and the Warsaw Pack still existed- at least there's some economy you could force to work with you- but that doesn't exist anymore, and Russia is all alone- most of their former minions have already turned west for better economic standards.

In reply to alfadriver :

I think it was part of Putin's grand plan, and he simply couldn't wait any longer because Russian influence in Ukraine was declining under Zelenskyy's adminstration, and his window of opportunity to conduct a "successful" campaign was rapidly closing.  As nonsensical as it seems, on the surface the point appears to have been to re-constitute the former Soviet Union under his rule.  Or, maybe the point was to distract attention from his domestic activities (internal corruption) while the average Russian watches their standard of living fall even further behind the west and the oligarchs start to question his "leadership".   Maybe in 10-20 years we will know for sure, provided we all don't fall victim to some calamity. 

I think y'all are overly optimistic. Once winter starts to hit Europe and there's no gas to heat homes, or fuel to move products, many are going to capitulate and buy from Russia at a now inflated price. They talk big, but when their own people start freezing and starving they will change their minds quickly IMO. 

But then again I'm pretty cynical. 

In reply to bobzilla :

*Maybe* this winter.  But France is reportedly firing up all of their nuclear reactors, and they all have given Russia an ultimatum over a price, as they have spent all year filling reserves to make it through the winter.  The oil fields in North Dakota is probably cheering over the expansion of trade- as are the LNG bulk carriers- THEY are going to make a mint this winter.

But it's not going to last long.  The EU was already quickly transitioning away from a HC based power system, and this just accelerated that.  Which is the opposite of what Russia should want.

06HHR (Forum Supporter) said:

 As nonsensical as it seems, on the surface the point appears to have been to re-constitute the former Soviet Union under his rule. 

He explicitly said this a couple months ago, after running out of lame excuses.

In reply to bobzilla :

That Peter Zeihan fellow linked earlier has an interesting perspective on this subject, posted recently (today):

Europe's Natural Gas Challenge - YouTube

It ends on a rather bleak prediction.  My WAG is the German Govt and/or the EU will subsidize the costs to keep his prediction from occurring.

In reply to bobzilla :

And Germany has postponed the shutdown of 2 of their 3 remaining operational nuclear reactors to April 2023. They were all scheduled to shut down at the end of this year.  

In reply to 06HHR (Forum Supporter) :

that's great for electricity not so good for gas heat. 

I'm hearing chatter about possible penetration of up to 50km on a narrow front near Kharkiv. Whether this is a major offensive, a deep probe or raid, or something else I do not know. But the Russians will have to respond to avoid a serious defensive breakdown on that front.

On a strategic level, this piece from the Asia Times is one of the most cogent discussions I've read on the energy angle and how shutting off the flow completely marks a more significant shift in Russia's policy than has been generally recognized. That said, I find the conclusion to be unsupported by and indeed wildly out of step with the evidence presented.

alfadriver said:

In reply to bobzilla :

*Maybe* this winter.  But France is reportedly firing up all of their nuclear reactors, and they all have given Russia an ultimatum over a price, as they have spent all year filling reserves to make it through the winter.  The oil fields in North Dakota is probably cheering over the expansion of trade- as are the LNG bulk carriers- THEY are going to make a mint this winter.

But it's not going to last long.  The EU was already quickly transitioning away from a HC based power system, and this just accelerated that.  Which is the opposite of what Russia should want.

I was thinking about this, at this point the POTUS and administration has done, in my opinion, a great job of sending weapons over. Everyone like Hungary Bill is doing amazing work in humanitarian aid. What we need now is for some program to turn on all of our midwest oil fields as if oil was $6/gallon and ship that stuff to Europe. Most turbines can burn pretty much anything, so even if it's not the best NG, it can still work.

02Pilot said:

I'm hearing chatter about possible penetration of up to 50km on a narrow front near Kharkiv. Whether this is a major offensive, a deep probe or raid, or something else I do not know. But the Russians will have to respond to avoid a serious defensive breakdown on that front.

On a strategic level, this piece from the Asia Times is one of the most cogent discussions I've read on the energy angle and how shutting off the flow completely marks a more significant shift in Russia's policy than has been generally recognized. That said, I find the conclusion to be unsupported by and indeed wildly out of step with the evidence presented.

Seems to be more than just chatter. Geolocated pictures of Ukrainian flags going up have popped up which are pretty decent proof. 

The whole recreating the Soviet Union thing got me thinking.  If a good chunk of the cannon fodder is from outlying regions in the Russian Federation, Putin pretty much has to ride this one all the way into the ditch and get most of those soldiers killed.  If not, when they come home, there will be a bunch of disgruntled fighters and various governments who think they can do better without Moscow.

The breakup of the Russian Federation is likely to be a lot more violent than the breakup of the Soviet Union.

In reply to bobzilla :

The only one who will suffer this year will be the UK, because years of austerity measures mean they don't store a years supply of NG/LPG for heating. The EU does, and the Norwegians have some of the largest petroleum deposits on the planet, and even then the only nations who are reliant on it to that extent is Germany.

To add to that, the biggest competitor to coal and petroleum-based power generation- nuclear- is also getting a massive leg up since Greenpeace suddenly lost their biggest fundraiser when the sanctions hit. I've genuinely never seen pro-nuke types so aggressive like right now, its awesome.