History in the Making: Russian Invasion

In reply to 93EXCivic :

My premise is that any territory annexed to Russia would be held. The land swap would propose to "give back" occupied Ukrainian territory outside of those regions. There is always a risk of having to give up annexed territory, which certainly wouldn't look good.

In other news, Putin announced a partial mobilization, but I think the conditions of this suggest something other than pure escalation. First, the call up is for 300,000 men. This might seem a large number, but it's only 15% of the Russian reserve (defined as men with military experience in the last five years). Second, there are exemptions, most notably for students, which will probably result in a wave of enrollments in any schools available by those who can afford it (the middle class). Third, I'm not sure about the tooth-to-tail ratio in the modern Russian army, but even if it's considerably lower than in the US Army, I still don't think this amounts to more than 30-40,000 men added to frontline strength.

The next question is whether they are used as replacement pool or formed into new units and thrown in that way. I suspect the latter; putting fresh reservists amongst low morale regulars is a good way to reduce the new forces' effectiveness right out of the box. There's also the munitions shortage to consider - this move only exacerbates it. There's no word yet on the force mix, but there's little additional heavy equipment to commit.

This reads to me as Putin signaling an ability to escalate as a way to show he's not going to roll over, but far from a clear step towards a hardening of his position. No leader wants to have to negotiate from weakness; this type of limited mobilization leverages Russian manpower in a way that may serve to prolong the conflict, raising costs in the West, and perhaps allowing for the sort of negotiated settlement I proposed earlier.

Put me in the "this has to be bluster" camp. They are running out of ammunition and weapons, and their initial force has withered to a bare minimum. I don't think dragging 300K otherwise-happy Russians into this fight is going to make a real difference for them, if they even go.

In reply to 02Pilot :

I hope you are right.

Ugh reading about nato aircraft all going dark on transponders.  Hoping Putin falls out a window shortly after his mobilization effort reflects the reality of their blunder in Ukraine.

84FSP said:

Ugh reading about nato aircraft all going dark on transponders.  Hoping Putin falls out a window shortly after his mobilization effort reflects the reality of their blunder in Ukraine.

I read that last night as well, but the indications I saw were that it didn't really occur. Certainly there are plenty of them showing up on ADSB right now.

Regarding your other comment, I've had similar thoughts. But I've also learned to be careful what I wish for. Right now I'm just thankful that we have the luxury of watching this unfold from behind a screen rather than in our front yards.

Just saw this new article detailing how the new partial mobilization is a "E36 M3 getting real" moment for Russian citizens:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/21/opinions/putin-mobilization-russians-ukraine-counteroffensive-kolesnikov/index.html

In reply to 02Pilot :

I see it as a sign of willingness to escalate, and also as Putin walking a thin line between holding ground in Ukraine until winter, when he has the chance to pressure western Europe, and keeping unrest in Russia to a minimum. 

This is huge, they are already planning on a draft in which they expect everyone to flee instead of service.

https://www.airlive.net/breaking-russian-airlines-ordered-to-stop-selling-tickets-to-russian-men-aged-18-to-65/

Another related article.

https://newtimes.ru/articles/detail/222963/

I see lots of reports coming in about mass protests.

I am beginning to think that this might be the end for Putin, but then, is the next guy going to be another Gorbachev or another Stalin?

Russian business paper RBC says that all tickets for direct flights today and tomorrow from Moscow to Istanbul, Yerevan, Tashkent and Baku have sold out

Of note is that the call up of "reservists" I believe is referring to anyone with previous service.  As noted previously, the typical training level of the Russian conscripts is rather poor.  This could of course include Contractors (more professional / career military types that are in the more elite units) but they are generally the minority, are probably still serving, and many have been killed or wounded already.

I wouldn't necessarily expect an influx of quality veterans.  They might even bring with them the perspective of experience / age, and that might not reflect well on Putin.

I am also not sure just throwing bodies at the problem is the solutions (although, very Russian).  They are clearly having issues with equipment.  It's also likely the arrival of these troops would take at least a few weeks (maybe months), and that might be a bit late late depending on what the Ukrainians do. 

Also of note is that the current crop of conscripts are coming up on the end of their required service (sometime in October).

There is also a rumor that Ukraine will be flying F16's soon.....

India looking to the US for future weapons and energy deals..  Not a good development for Putin's Russia..

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/21/india/india-us-talks-shifting-russia-reliance-intl-hnk/index.html

A friend just sent me a TikTok that said that the traffic jam at the Russia/Finland border, the only remaining open land border for Russians, is 35km long. If my head math is right, that is 21 or 22 miles. People are fleeing Russia by any means possible. That is not good.

EDIT: Lets all remember my source for this is ultimately completely unknown. This TikToker could be making it up. I didn't double check it. So big grain of salt with it until that is confirmed. 

Yep the E36 M3's hitting the fan pretty hard over there at the airports and borders:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-ukraine-war-mobilization-fleeing-1.6589974

Apparently this ran ashore near Sevastapol.   Anyone missing a spy boat?

This is a thing BTW.  Autonomous low profile boats that float around looking and listening.

In reply to mtn :

I only found a similar report on the Daily Star website, but it seems they are sourcing the same video.  Still, even if it's only half-true, that would still be a lot of folks fleeing.  On top of the general exodus of educated Russians who have apparently been leaving for years. 

Not particularly low profile. Definitely looks different from other surveillance drone boats. It may not even be Russian or Ukrainian.  

As noted, the people that are fleeing Russian, are those that are able to flee, which is probably the top 10% (Russia has some very slanted wealth distribution)

Some more notes on the annexation:

• Putin’s illegal annexation of occupied Ukrainian territory will broaden the domestic legal definition of “Russian” territory under Russian law, enabling the Russian military to legally and openly deploy conscripts already in the Russian military to fight in eastern and southern Ukraine. Russian leadership has already deployed undertrained conscripts to Ukraine in direct violation of Russian law and faced domestic backlash.[5] Russia’s semi-annual conscription cycle usually generates around 130,000 conscripts twice per year.[6] The next cycle runs from October 1 to December 31. Russian law generally requires that conscripts receive at least four months of training prior to deployment overseas, and Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly denied that conscripts will be deployed to Ukraine.[7] Annexation could provide him a legal loophole allowing for the overt deployment of conscripts to fight.

tuna55 said:

Another related article.

https://newtimes.ru/articles/detail/222963/

I see lots of reports coming in about mass protests.

 

I am beginning to think that this might be the end for Putin, but then, is the next guy going to be another Gorbachev or another Stalin?

NPR just reported mass protests in Russia, i don't think this is going the way Putin envisioned.  

06HHR (Forum Supporter) said:

tuna55 said:

Another related article.

https://newtimes.ru/articles/detail/222963/

I see lots of reports coming in about mass protests.

 

I am beginning to think that this might be the end for Putin, but then, is the next guy going to be another Gorbachev or another Stalin?

NPR just reported mass protests in Russia, i don't think this is going the way Putin envisioned.  

NPR is a pretty solid resource for news like that. Coupled with the pictures reported to be from several major city centers and I think this is real. My understanding is that the protests have waned over the course of the war since February, and this idea seems to have revived them.

The question is how many protesters can be arrested before it becomes hopeless, and are there more protesters than that?

I thank those brave folks for doing that. If I was Russian I am not sure I'd have the risk tolerance with a family and children.

First news from a Western outlet on the protests I can find online:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/more-than-100-detained-anti-mobilisation-protests-across-russia-rights-group-2022-09-21/
 

It's a shame we have to factor the likelihood of reports like these being nothing more than clickbait BS...  

In reply to tuna55 :

And what will Russia do with them? I imagine they're wanting penal legions, but the Wagner prisoners they deployed all surrendered in Ukraine to get out of Russia- and a bigger prison population requires more guards and police to keep in line, which worsens your manpower issues.

stroker said:

It's a shame we have to factor the likelihood of reports like these being nothing more than clickbait BS...  

The entire news cycle for any story as far back as I can remember is subject to the same thing I think. It's important to verify and get your news from a few different sources no matter what, but especially in the age of Twitter, when basically anyone can post basically anything and say it's whatever they wish. Of course, bare propaganda is hard in such an age, which is why Russia is failing so very badly at it. I am sure Ukraine isn't 100% innocent in trying to drum up support, but we can find enough reports of the same thing saying similar things with pictures or video or both that it seems more reasonable.

I agree, though. It's hard. Raising kids in today's news cycle is interesting.

tuna55 said:

stroker said:

It's a shame we have to factor the likelihood of reports like these being nothing more than clickbait BS...  

The entire news cycle for any story as far back as I can remember is subject to the same thing I think. It's important to verify and get your news from a few different sources no matter what, but especially in the age of Twitter, when basically anyone can post basically anything and say it's whatever they wish. Of course, bare propaganda is hard in such an age, which is why Russia is failing so very badly at it. I am sure Ukraine isn't 100% innocent in trying to drum up support, but we can find enough reports of the same thing saying similar things with pictures or video or both that it seems more reasonable.

 

I agree, though. It's hard. Raising kids in today's news cycle is interesting.

At least we didn't have to buy a newspaper for the privilege, though.  :)