History in the Making: Russian Invasion

At what point does the west start pushing for peace talks? I can't help but think it is a better for all parties involved that this war ends in peace talks. If there isn't a peace deal, I think very much hurts the ability of Ukraine to draw investment, their economy is absolutely and completely destroyed and will become a problem soon and sets up the possibility of this happening again. For the west, there is possibility of escalation and the major drag that this war is having on an already slowing economy. For Russia, Putin needs something he can sell as a win and it is also destroying their economy. 

In reply to 93EXCivic :

I am sure discussions are happening, but it doesn't really benefit anyone for them to be acknowledged publicly. 

Ian F (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to 93EXCivic :

I am sure discussions are happening, but it doesn't really benefit anyone for them to be acknowledged publicly. 

Wouldn't both the west and Ukraine have to the process of getting the public ready for a peace deal? It seems like in general the public is pushing for Ukraine to go until Russia is completely pushed out.

In reply to stroker :

Or if they imported as many as possible on credit (with no plan to pay) before being cut off. 

In reply to 93EXCivic :

Given the many tons of grain that Ukraine is selling, I would not exactly say their economy is in completely ruined.  And at this point, there's still a massive potential for the country to recover reasonably quickly- people seem to forget how quickly the post WWII recovery was, when the devastation from that was orders of magnitude worse than this war.

We are not even a year into this war, Ukraine is pushing russia out of the country, so I find it interesting that the idea of a peace deal that lets russia stay in their occupied areas.  russia can end this is they agree to leave- and since they will more likely loose a lot more people and personnel in this battle- the ball is in their court as long as Ukraine wants them out.

Post war, if the EU/NATO can ensure the security of the country, the odds that refugees go back is pretty decent for Ukraine, too.  Let alone the idea that countries want the value of their arms investments back- so the West is very likely to help Ukraine rebuild as quick as possible.

Not to mention at this point it is unlikely anything Russia offers in a peace deal can be trusted, unless the other parties to it have the power (and will) to enforce it.  Putin is not really known for negotiating in good faith.

In reply to eastsideTim :

I mean to me NATO and Ukraine can not agree to a peace deal that doesn't include security guarantees from NATO.

I'm sure that there's back alley negotiating, probably through intermediaries like the US. Problem is, Ukraine wants Russia out to the 2013 borders and Russia wants Donbas, Crimea and the land bridge between including Mariupol. That's a monumental difference in positions. Each side isn't looking for the other to blink. They are waiting for the other to bow it's head. Russia's economy and future prospects are slipping considerably, but they still have the petro revenue stream, and equaly importantly they have a populace trained to be subservient to power.

In reply to 93EXCivic :

Why?  With the front still in flux, I can't see either side agreeing to anything right now.  As mentioned, Ukraine is pushing hard and has little incentive to push for peace talks until Russian forces are out of Ukrainian lands.  For Putin, agreeing to peace talks is practically admitting defeat.  It's going to be difficult to spin it so it looks like Russia accomplished their goals while sitting at pre-war borders.  If Ukraine manages to push Russia out of some or all of Crimea, I doubt Putin will agree to much of anything as that would represent a huge defeat if they agreed to end the war with less territory than when they started it.

At best, we may see something at the 1-year mark in 2023. 

In a way, Russia/Putin has sort of shot themselves in the foot. European countries are not likely to just say, "all is forgiven" and start becoming dependent on Russian NG again. No. They'll buy it again, but will work hard to move towards other energy sources as well. 

Question:

IF Ukraine should end up with their 2013 map at the end of this, what kind of backlash are we going to see against the pro-russian population that has been living in the provinces that russia invaded in 2014?

I have to think that they are going to be personas non-gratas in the reunited Ukraine because, if you think about it, the pro-russia citizens of these 4 provinces ARE the ones responsible for the  whole russian invasion thing.

Maybe russia can use the population boost from emigration to bolster their faltering demographics?

NOHOME said:

Question:

 

IF Ukraine should end up with their 2013 map at the end of this, what kind of backlash are we going to see against the pro-russian population that has been living in the provinces that russia invaded in 2014?

I have to think that they are going to be personas non-gratas in the reunited Ukraine because, if you think about it, the pro-russia citizens of these 4 provinces ARE the ones responsible for the  whole russian invasion thing.

Maybe russia can use the population boost from emigration to bolster their faltering demographics?

Keep in mind, though, that Russia had probably been waging a very successful misinformation campaign in Ukraine in general, well before they invaded in 2014.  I seem to recall fairly early in the war seeing interviews with some people who had been pro-Russia until they saw the reality of what that meant.

In reply to NOHOME :

You make a good point. Most of Ukraine's population is solidly nationalist. The Donbas less so, and Crimea very much less so. Much of the population there will not be happy to see Ukraine moving back in, even more so if there's wreckage everywhere. As far as moving back to Russia, I think that'll be like asking the snowbirds to give up Florida.

My guess is if the Ukrainians take back the pre-invasion Russian occupied areas of Crimea and the Donbass, they will find very few Ukrainians loyalists.  Those areas tended to lean Russian before this s-show, and now that they have been occupied for years most of the non Russian loyal population has likely left or been "dealt with".

Now, there is the aspect of the Russian loyalists coming to the conclusion that Russia is not a master they want, but that will likely follow along with Russia in general, rather than Ukraine.  Having a sane Ukraine in charge of them might help change their minds, but it will still be a tough road and you can be assured Russia will be inspiring as much decent as possible.

Update:  It seems like the Russians have been continuing their rather fruitless efforts in the Eastern areas, with likely high casualty results in general.  Kherson is still a question.  Certainly would not want to be a Russian soldier there though.  They are without air cover and are on the short side of the artillery situation.

• It is still unclear whether Russian forces will defend Kherson City despite the ongoing withdrawal of some Russian elements from northwestern Kherson Oblast.
• Russian forces prematurely deployed newly mobilized personnel to offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast in the pursuit of minimal and operationally insignificant territorial gains.
• Russian outlets continued to publish contradictory and confusing reports about the dismissal of Colonel General Alexander Lapin from the position of CMD commander or commander of the Russian “central” forces.
• Russian authorities may be setting conditions to imminently transfer the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant to the Russian power grid.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued to conduct counteroffensive operations in the direction of Kreminna and Svatove.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City.
• The Russian military continues to face pronounced issues in the supply of critical military equipment.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense is likely continuing mobilization efforts covertly.
• Russian occupation officials continued forced evacuations in Kherson Oblast.

Can anyone identify the reason for this pattern?  A KC135 created this flight path near Syria (which has a significant Russian airbase there).  It appears to be indicating something....

In reply to aircooled :

I don't get it...  

BTW, that airframe is older than I am.  (I am 60.)

Noddaz said:

In reply to aircooled :

I don't get it...  

BTW, that airframe is older than I am.  (I am 60.)

Hey, at least that 65YO airframe can still get it up!

The Ukraine may be devastated and broke, but the Western Powers will be falling over themselves to rush in and rebuild it. It will be just like the rebuilding efforts after the second World War which drove the world economy for the next 20 years. The Ukraine may come out of this a much better and more modern country at the end of the day. Russia however has literally bombed the Ukraine into their own personal Stone Age. Not sure anyone will be rushing to fix their economy.

Over to Russia's new weapons supplier:  I think it is a very reasonable assumption that the US and the Saudi's (and probably the Israelis) are doing what they can to encourage this situation.  Inciting some sort of conflict with another country is likely seen as a way to help / distract from what is going on.

• Violent clashes erupted between security forces and protesters in Karaj, Alborz Province on November 3.
• Protesters coordinated extensively to respond to the regime crackdown in Karaj, possibly reflecting growing organization within the movement.
• The regime may be struggling to reach a consensus on how to manage the protests at this stage.
• American and Persian Gulf officials told the Wall Street Journal that the likelihood of an imminent Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia and other neighboring countries has decreased but is not gone entirely.
• At least 22 protests took place in 17 cities across 12 provinces.
• The IRGC Intelligence Organization arrested three members of an “anti-security team” in Ilam City, Ilam Province.
• LEC Sistan and Baluchistan Provincial Commander Ahmad Taheri announced that unidentified gunmen shot and killed a Shia cleric in Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province.
• Skirmishes may erupt between pro- and anti-regime protesters on November 4.
• The Artesh may have prepared its forces to participate in protest suppression in Zahedan.
• An IRGC Telegram channel circulated on November 3 an op-ed calling for the IRGC Quds Force to establish a 30-kilometer-deep buffer zone into Iraqi Kurdistan to counter anti-regime Kurdish militants there.
• Turkey reaffirmed its support for Azerbaijan amid the growing tensions between Tehran and Baku.

Rumor is North Korea is likely to do another nuke test in the next few days.

The big child in the corner is tired of being ignored and is throwing a missile / explosion tantrum.

aircooled said:

Rumor is North Korea is likely to do another nuke test in the next few days.

The big child in the corner is tired of being ignored and is throwing a missile / explosion tantrum.

South Korea and Japan should just ignore North Korea.

In reply to aircooled :

I'm not sure there is a good outcome in Iran for the Saudis.  Either they have a country that continues to be in proxy wars with them, or they end up with a potentially far more liberal Islamic country next to them.

aircooled said:

but it will still be a tough road and you can be assured Russia will be inspiring as much decent as possible.

Does spell check live in hope?

The terms of any workable peace arrangement will most assuredly not include direct security guarantees from NATO. The requirement for unanimous agreement among members make any such terms difficult to achieve in the first place, and very difficult to implement in the event of renewed conflict. Plus Russia will never agree to anything that looks like Ukraine tying itself into NATO, with or without actual accession to the treaty. As for the EU, they can't even secure themselves, let alone a country like Ukraine; the total absurdity of an EU security guarantee is such that Russia might accept it, knowing its completely meaningless from day one.

The only plausible solution that I can come up with, as I've discussed here previously, is a mutually guaranteed neutrality, with a clear statement removing any possibility of Ukraine joining any Western military alliance or security structure: NATO, or any other bilateral or multilateral arrangement. Beyond that, Ukraine would be free to conduct its external affairs with regard to everything not security-related. The natural outcome, of course, is that Ukraine would quickly orient itself westward, and would integrate into the economic sphere of Europe, while not posing a threat to Russia (in Russia's view).

In this construct, there are still plenty of issues to resolve. Getting back to pre-2014 boundaries will be tough, and may require a prolonged process of international observation leading up to elections in the disputed provinces. Western nations will accept this (democracy!), but Ukraine will recognize the real risk of losing Crimea in an open election (especially if the agreement closes borders to new settlement), and will resist it. Naval forces in the Black Sea will be another stumbling block; as I've advocated before, I think the only real solution is demilitarization of the entire thing, but that raises countless follow-on issues to be resolved.

My expectation at this point is that both sides keep grinding through the winter, one or both launch new offensives in the spring, and maybe by summer or fall 2023 we'll see talks for a cease-fire in-place as a precondition to any real discussion of a permanent settlement. By that time, some Western countries are going to be getting tired of throwing money at the problem (I read a report last week that Biden blew up at Zelensky on a phone call - after Biden informed him of another billion-dollar package of military aid, Zelensky immediately started asking for more, and apparently Biden did not take kindly to this approach).

I read somewhere that we have blown 80 some $billion so far. Pretty cheap to crush Poopin the butcher. I sure hope we don't hang the Ukrainians out to dry like we did the Kurds in Iraq twice and in Syria once, not to mention in Turkey. The last 5 or 6 wars we have been involved with have been fought on the cheap and look what it gained us. If you want to win a war, you have to be willing to Raise taxes to do so. Turkey has more than enough navy to crush Russia in the Black Sea, I think that they should start using it. Don't let Poopin catch his breath, just ignore him or shove him out of the way.

Wikipedia: Turkish Naval Forces