Duke said:
Calling this the beginning of WW3 and advising people to hug their kids while they still can is not exactly de-escalation either.
And with that, I'm out. It will be what it is and folks arguing here isn't going to change it.
I will not post any opinion on this thread,due to some mods letting their side get away with more than the opposing. I am in joying the info. on here. But wanted to add my agreement to your point.
Lots of stuff could end the world, or start ww 3. I think this forum should continue posting solid info. , and ovoid dire warnings.
BTW, I have no clue who "jen" is and don't care. She is apparently politicaly charged, but not knowing, I found no offense in mongo's comment.
Sounded to me, as a bystander, that he just asked about a source, since it does sound a bit un realistic?
FatMongo said:
aircooled said:
One interesting aspect of this ...
Thats your opinion.
The other side of the coin is that the Russians are/were fully aware that the we are collecting their transmissions and are/were purposefully planting disinformation in their comms.
The amount of essentially raw SIGINT taek this Admin has released is pretty unprecedented. I dont know if it ultimately helps us or not.
Of course it's my opinion, my username is right above it. Who's else would it be?
You clearly have not read this entire thread. I made that exact point a few pages back (the Russians AF). The Russians are VERY well practiced in miss-information and intelligence operations and that should always be considered.
In reply to STM317 :
I wonder if they are mostly Ukrainain as there is a couple mill population in Russia. Interesting I did not expect protests in Russia.
tuna55
MegaDork
2/24/22 3:09 p.m.
trigun7469 said:
In reply to STM317 :
I wonder if they are mostly Ukrainain as there is a couple mill population in Russia. Interesting I did not expect protests in Russia.
Same. I expected them to buy the false news and cheer on mother Russia. That's really interesting news. So it either goes the way of tiannamen square or they topple the Kremlin
06HHR (Forum Supporter) said:
In reply to John Welsh :
I wonder if F1 will do anything regrading UralKali sponsorship of Haas, as their livery is basically the Russian flag..
And we have an answer, sort of... https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/haas-to-drop-uralkali-branding-for-final-day-of-f1-testing/8466022/
EDIT: A more comprehensive take on the situation from ESPN https://www.espn.com/f1/story/_/id/33360469/f1-monitoring-russia-gp-status-sebastian-vettel-says-boycott
In reply to tuna55 :
I have seen a lot of chatter out of Russia on social media that many many people are not happy about this. Many people in Russia have family in Ukraine or are partially Ukrainian. And it seems even more consider the Ukrainians Brothers and sisters.
tuna55
MegaDork
2/24/22 3:21 p.m.
03Panther said:
Duke said:
Calling this the beginning of WW3 and advising people to hug their kids while they still can is not exactly de-escalation either.
And with that, I'm out. It will be what it is and folks arguing here isn't going to change it.
I will not post any opinion on this thread,due to some mods letting their side get away with more than the opposing. I am in joying the info. on here. But wanted to add my agreement to your point.
Lots of stuff could end the world, or start ww 3. I think this forum should continue posting solid info. , and ovoid dire warnings.
BTW, I have no clue who "jen" is and don't care. She is apparently politicaly charged, but not knowing, I found no offense in mongo's comment.
Sounded to me, as a bystander, that he just asked about a source, since it does sound a bit un realistic?
It was intentionally and antagonistically political, PM me if you honestly don't know why. We can't clutter up the thread feeding the trolls though.
tuna55
MegaDork
2/24/22 3:22 p.m.
93EXCivic said:
In reply to tuna55 :
I have seen a lot of chatter out of Russia on social media that many many people are not happy about this. Many people in Russia have family in Ukraine or are partially Ukrainian. And it seems even more consider the Ukrainians Brothers and sisters.
That's really good news. Thanks for sharing. I wonder if this will be a Berlin Wall moment rather than a WW3 moment.
pheller
UltimaDork
2/24/22 3:27 p.m.
I don't know much about Eastern Europe's reliance on Nordstream and other Russian pipelines. With spring around the corner, could those countries survive without Russian gas?
I'm just an internet commentator.
There's lots of reasons to not believe Russian informatics that have to deal with what the people are simply used to and ambivalent towards; their economy has been stagnant ever since the fall, and modern Oligarchs are simply the outgrowth of the criminal mafia that made a legitimate face. "Ambivalence" is a better term; they also can't display whatever Shadow Economy there is (such as in Greece) since again, Nature Abhors vacuums.
Another, potentially big driving factor is Russia's increasing slide towards either Imperialism, or Fascism. Vlad's been calling the Ukraine a tool of the west for over a decade, with all of that wonderful USSR-tier propaganda spread throughout for a spicy flavor. Problem with this kind of governance however, is eventually you loose control- I'm basically quoting Nolte at this point, but eventually you've hammed up an "enemy" so much the lie itself becomes real and conflict is an inevitability; you get military leadership who makes moves on their own for the good of the state, or your extremists are no longer controllable, or something similar. We of course, won't know for sure unless some kind of coup occurs.
Also, people get propaganda wrong sometimes. It's very insidious; the less overt it is, the better it is. I see it with a friend of mine from Schenzen when he disagrees with a western viewpoint, the phrase "Imperialist" begins appearing (I pointed it out to him once, he began telling us how he had to study Mao for ~6 years or so and he's not surprised). Good propaganda has done work when it just seems to "leak" out unintentionally with no thought behind it, a word or phrase that means nothing but gets tossed into random discussion like an emotionally baited hook and can be repeated ad infinitum. I see it all the time in my hospital.
In reply to tuna55 :
I sure hope so. I think many especially of the younger generation are fed up. They are seeing their futures destroyed for nothing. But given that what I have seen is from English speaking Russian people there maybe some bias there.
Russia has enough hackers to do a lot of damage around the world ,
that is one weapon that Russia can use against the West
if it could be you make a backup or 2 and tell everyone who could get phished to look out even more than usual.
tuna55 said:
trigun7469 said:
In reply to STM317 :
I wonder if they are mostly Ukrainain as there is a couple mill population in Russia. Interesting I did not expect protests in Russia.
Same. I expected them to buy the false news and cheer on mother Russia. That's really interesting news. So it either goes the way of tiannamen square or they topple the Kremlin
Decades of training by state media have given Russians a strong BS detector.
californiamilleghia said:
Russia has enough hackers to do a lot of damage around the world ,
that is one weapon that Russia can use against the West
if it could be you make a backup or 2 and tell everyone who could get phished to look out even more than usual.
Quoted for emphasis. I shut down my work computer completely, and pulled my home computer off my network last night when I heard the news, and this morning before reconnecting, backed everything critical to an external hard drive. This morning, made sure all my devices were up to date.
There were already reports of more aggressive than usual attacks on Ukrainian networks yesterday, and a lot of malware isn't exactly overly targeted on what computers it will infect, so I expect it to end up affecting other countries, whether intentionally or not.
pheller said:
I don't know much about Eastern Europe's reliance on Nordstream and other Russian pipelines. With spring around the corner, could those countries survive without Russian gas?
The problem will be that German Industry also uses a lot of gas , so far it is getting Russia gas thru a pipeline that goes thru Ukraine, and Russia has been paying a fee to Ukraine for passage , that is one reason they built Nordstrom.
But Germany has a lot of energy problems trying to go Green in a few years.
In reply to tuna55 :
It was intentionally and antagonistically political, PM me if you honestly don't know why.
I apreacate that offer! Bit busy at the moment, but I DO apreacate it.
I try not to listen to radicals on either side of reasonable, so I am unaware of a lot of "hot button" names! I do not remember mongos side, or even if I agree. I do remember he can get a bit excited, along with his opposites. I tend to as well; it's why I don't post much, anymore!
californiamilleghia said:
pheller said:
I don't know much about Eastern Europe's reliance on Nordstream and other Russian pipelines. With spring around the corner, could those countries survive without Russian gas?
The problem will be that German Industry also uses a lot of gas , so far it is getting Russia gas thru a pipeline that goes thru Ukraine, and Russia has been paying a fee to Ukraine for passage , that is one reason they built Nordstrom.
But Germany has a lot of energy problems trying to go Green in a few years.
It is awful schadenfreude to watch Germany go "Why did we EVER listen to Greenpeace and shut down our reactors in the 80s?" like right now.
At least maybe we'll finally see Fast Breeders and more pumped into the Thorium-cycle, but that's a different topic.
bobzilla said:
aircooled said:
... It seemed so effective that Put Put finally just gave up his little justification game and invaded....
I personally wonder if the constant beating of war drums didn't back him into a corner. As if we'd kept our mouths shut and it would have been a bluff game of who's wee wee is bigger and be done.
It's not an unreasnable question. It really goes back to what 02 likes to point out: What is Putins actually motivation?".
I could be mean about and say, that's kind of like asking if the store keeper is at fault for not just giving the thug the beer and not forcing him to steal it. But we really don't know if it is the "beer" is what Putin is after.
Is he after land? Is there something on that land he wants? Does he just want to look tough and strong? Does he want a fight / war, to have his country rally behind him in his honorable struggle? Is this a last desperate move of a dying economy, or a dying leader? Does he truly believe there is a genocide going on? Is he just THAT threatened by NATO? (which I have mentioned before he HAS to know is purely defensive, not that his people know that of course)
Telegraphing everything he is planning much like heavy sanctions before any action certainly can have the effect of "hell, I did the time, might as well do the crime", but it is hard to second guess history sometimes. It just as easily could make it hard for him to execute his plan and make it seem reactionary. There IS historical precedence of Russia doing almost this exact thing, not too long ago, so I will tend to lean toward: he was essentially planning on doing it all along (maybe not if the NATO guarantee went though, but who knows, maybe he was assuming they would turn it down).
History is hard to guess, especially when it is rolling out in front of you.
Mr_Asa
PowerDork
2/24/22 4:29 p.m.
aircooled said:
bobzilla said:
aircooled said:
... It seemed so effective that Put Put finally just gave up his little justification game and invaded....
I personally wonder if the constant beating of war drums didn't back him into a corner. As if we'd kept our mouths shut and it would have been a bluff game of who's wee wee is bigger and be done.
It's not an unreasnable question. It really goes back to what 02 likes to point out: What is Putins actually motivation?".
I could be mean about and say, that's kind of like asking if the store keeper is at fault for not just giving the thug the beer and not forcing him to steal it. But we really don't know if it is the "beer" is what Putin is after.
Is after land? Is there something on that land he wants? Does he just want to look tough and strong? Does he want a fight / war, to have his country rally behind him in his honorable struggle. Is this a last desperate move of a dying economy, or a dying leader? Does he truely believe there is a genocide going on? Is he just THAT threatened by NATO? (which I have mentioned before he HAS to know is purely defensive, not that his people know that of course)
Telegraphing everything he is planning much like heavy sanctions before any action certainly can have the effect of "hell, I did the time, might as well do the crime", but it is hard to second guess history sometimes. It just as easily could make it hard for him to execute his plan. There IS historical precidence of Russia doing almost this exact thing, not too long ago, so I will tend to lean toward: he was essentially planning on doing it all along (maybe not if the NATO guarentee went though, but who knows, maybe he was assuming they would turn it down).
History is hard to guess, especially when it is rolling out in front of you.
There is a lot of speculation that Putin, as a former USSR KGB guy, wants to resurrect the USSR in some form.
Something like that reason, there is no real arguing against it. You'll just end up fighting over it.
Interestingly enough, the site I was getting a lot of real time info off of (liveuamap.com) is now offline....
In reply to aircooled :
I am not going to lie. I do slightly understand some of Putin's points. We have put nuclear weapons in a number of countries in Europe basically taking advantage of a loophole in one of the nuclear treaties. What are those weapons for if not for Russia?
aircooled said:
bobzilla said:
aircooled said:
... It seemed so effective that Put Put finally just gave up his little justification game and invaded....
I personally wonder if the constant beating of war drums didn't back him into a corner. As if we'd kept our mouths shut and it would have been a bluff game of who's wee wee is bigger and be done.
It's not an unreasnable question. It really goes back to what 02 likes to point out: What is Putins actually motivation?".
I could be mean about and say, that's kind of like asking if the store keeper is at fault for not just giving the thug the beer and not forcing him to steal it. But we really don't know if it is the "beer" is what Putin is after.
Is he after land? Is there something on that land he wants? Does he just want to look tough and strong? Does he want a fight / war, to have his country rally behind him in his honorable struggle? Is this a last desperate move of a dying economy, or a dying leader? Does he truly believe there is a genocide going on? Is he just THAT threatened by NATO? (which I have mentioned before he HAS to know is purely defensive, not that his people know that of course)
Telegraphing everything he is planning much like heavy sanctions before any action certainly can have the effect of "hell, I did the time, might as well do the crime", but it is hard to second guess history sometimes. It just as easily could make it hard for him to execute his plan and make it seem reactionary. There IS historical precedence of Russia doing almost this exact thing, not too long ago, so I will tend to lean toward: he was essentially planning on doing it all along (maybe not if the NATO guarantee went though, but who knows, maybe he was assuming they would turn it down).
History is hard to guess, especially when it is rolling out in front of you.
I'd love to respond to this but I'm not allowed due to forum rules.
If you feel the need to refer to certain people (!). Just refer to it as "the US" or "the US policy" and don't get overly specific.
I would love to hear your perspective, if you dare(!)
