History in the Making: Russian Invasion

02Pilot said:

If one wanted to sink a ship surreptitiously, ideally it wouldn't involve a large explosion. Small time-delay directed-energy limpets deployed by SOF in critical areas of the hull would probably be the method of choice. I wouldn't be at all surprised if there are thermite devices in use that will burn through the hull rather than using explosives as well.

That said, I suspect there's more value in monitoring this Iranian vessel to determine its operational capabilities and figure out how to contend with them effectively in a non-kinetic environment.

If you want to know how to surreptitiously sink a ship, just asked Ukraine. They have actually proved to be pretty good at it.

In reply to aircooled :

Yeah, it seems like a dumb move. If they send a couple of hundred drones to Russia, they can be spread out to a bunch of launch sites, whereas if they are all on a ship.... well let's just take note that the guys who blew Nord Stream are still out there.

bearmtnmartin (Forum Supporter) said:

02Pilot said:

If one wanted to sink a ship surreptitiously, ideally it wouldn't involve a large explosion. Small time-delay directed-energy limpets deployed by SOF in critical areas of the hull would probably be the method of choice. I wouldn't be at all surprised if there are thermite devices in use that will burn through the hull rather than using explosives as well.

That said, I suspect there's more value in monitoring this Iranian vessel to determine its operational capabilities and figure out how to contend with them effectively in a non-kinetic environment.

If you want to know how to surreptitiously sink a ship, just asked Ukraine. They have actually proved to be pretty good at it.

What ship(s) did Ukraine sink surrepitiously? I don't consider anti-shipping missiles or drone boats especially subtle or hard to attribute. If you want plausible deniability, it needs to be done carefully and quietly.

DarkMonohue said:

Regarding corruption within Ukraine:

https://www.youtube.com/embed/ikFKclarb1U?rel=0&start=188

 

Still occurring, and more to the point, still being rooted out.  Interpret that any way you'd like.  I'm encouraged to see it being addressed. 

 

That's totally disingenuous.  Hey!  America puts politicians in Jail regularly. So does Russia, China any country in  the world.  
     Right Now Ukraine is putting thier solders in a fight everybody thought they couldnt win.  But they are winning!  Beating the rich, powerful, Russians. With the help of countries that think it's wrong to occupy another country.  
Hey Russia, live by the sword, die by the sword. 
       

frenchyd said:

That's totally disingenuous.  Hey!  America puts politicians in Jail regularly. So does Russia, China any country in  the world.  
     Right Now Ukraine is putting thier solders in a fight everybody thought they couldnt win.  But they are winning!  Beating the rich, powerful, Russians. With the help of countries that think it's wrong to occupy another country.  
Hey Russia, live by the sword, die by the sword. 
       

I'm not sure what you think was disingenuous. A hugely popular Ukrainian YouTuber pointed out that corruption still takes place and that those who participate are being caught and charged accordingly. It seemed relevant to the discussion as an anecdote, not an editorial, and if you interpreted the fact that I shared it as a lack of support for Ukraine, then you misinterpreted.

In reply to DarkMonohue :

Yes I did take it as a lack of support for Unkraine and by Extension America for supporting Ukraine.  
 Thank you for clarifying that for me.  

There are huge amounts of money to be made during wartime. During the first phase it's kinda like a tree falling on your house, rain is getting in and you're calling contractors saying "Just fix it. We'll work out the price later". Now it's like we've pumped a huge amount of money into the place, it's still torn up, and we're going "Hmmm, maybe we need to be a little more systematic about this". This is all standard stuff and no news to you folks. What's relevant is the importance of guys like this YouTuber in helping prevent a scenario where Ukraine ultimately prevails, only to fall into the hands of a newly enriched elite.

In reply to Kreb (Forum Supporter) :

I get the impression that Ukraine wants to follow the American way of doing things rather than the Russian way.  
  Zilinsky  is smart enough to understand the hybrid  of Russian/American won't work.  Add the pride returning  Vets will have in "their" country, well,  I doubt much corruption  will be allowed in the future.  
 Yes, I know,  there is always some who will try. 

Update:  Seems like the basic situation is: Russia continues to put huge effort into very small gains in the east (while constantly claiming huge wins).  Things are moving around in Belarus, making everyone wonder if Russia is stupid enough to try again from there and the Russians certainly seem to believe Ukraine will attack in the south (or is that what they want them to believe...).

• Russian media reported on January 10 that Colonel General Aleksandr Lapin, former commander of the Central Military District and Russian forces in Kharkiv and northern Donetsk oblasts during Russia's significant losses in September 2022, has been appointed Chief of Staff of the Russian Ground Forces.
• The news of Lapin’s appointment is generating further schisms in the already-fragmented pro-war Russian information space.
• Igor Girkin heavily implied that he would support the removal of Russian President Vladimir Putin from office, suggesting that a willingness to reduce self-censorship and directly criticize Putin may be growing among some milbloggers.
• The Ukrainian General Staff deviated from its normal reporting pattern about Russian forces in Belarus and near Ukraine’s northern border on January 10, an indicator of possible Russian preparations for an offensive in northern Ukraine, though ISW assesses this course of action remains unlikely at this time.
• Ukrainian forces continued to make gains along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces conducted ground attacks across the Donetsk Oblast frontline and made gains around Soledar but have not captured the settlement, despite false claims.
• The Kremlin continues to deny that Russian authorities are preparing for another wave of partial mobilization.
• Russian occupation authorities are struggling to contain an effective partisan movement in occupied territories.

Looks like China has an opinion on the outcome (!):

--------------

• China was reportedly blindsided by Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine
• China found out Russia's intention to invade Ukraine only after Putin announced the start of his special military operation
• Chinese officials believe Russia will emerge from the war as a 'minor power'

A Chinese official on Tuesday called Russian President Vladimir Putin "crazy" as mistrust toward Russia grows among the upper echelons of Beijing.

During a video conference last month, Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged to deepen Beijing's bilateral ties with Moscow. However, some people in the upper echelons of the Chinese Communist Party may not share the views of their leader.

"Putin is crazy," a Chinese official, who declined to be identified, told The Financial Times. "The invasion decision was made by a very small group of people. China shouldn't simply follow Russia."

The official's comments come as distrust against Russia continues to grow amid the war in Ukraine. The outlet noted that at least five senior Chinese officials said the distrust began after China was blindsided by Putin's invasion, only finding out about Russia's intention to launch a full-scale attack on Ukraine until after the Russian leader ordered the start of the so-called "special military operation."

Another official told the publication that Putin only told Xi that Russia "would not rule out taking whatever measures possible if eastern Ukrainian separatists attack Russian territory and cause humanitarian disasters." China took Putin's statement as a signal for limited military engagement and not a full-scale invasion.

The outlet also noted that Xi demoted then-vice-minister of foreign affairs and Russia expert Le Yucheng after failing to obtain accurate information about Putin's plans, leaving China unprepared.

"Le was demoted by two levels of seniority," a Chinese official said, according to the outlet. "He was held responsible for the intelligence failure on Russia's invasion."

Several Chinese officials, who also spoke to the outlet on condition of anonymity, also said they believe Russia would likely emerge from the war as a "minor power."

The reporting comes as Russia's struggle in the war in Ukraine continues. U.S. and Ukrainian officials have told CNN that Russia's artillery fire is down by as much as 75% in some areas.

In addition to dwindling artillery rounds, the Russian army also lost 112,470 military personnel as of Tuesday, including 710 soldiers who were killed the previous day, as per estimates from the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.

https://www.ibtimes.com/chinese-official-calls-putin-crazy-beijings-distrust-against-russia-grows-ft-3655604

Looks very likely Ukraine is getting Leopard 2's.  This is a fully modern tank which should easily outclass most of what Russia has.  I am sure it still has anti-tank missile vulnerabilities, but a lot less then what they have now.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/poland-send-leopard-tanks-ukraine-96365344

As far as Abrams, yes, a very nice tank, but it takes an "American" level of support and most especially fuel (the turbine motor is NOT fuel efficient), so I would not expect those anytime soon.   Leopards are likely a better long term solution also (more of a NATO tank).

That "chin" at the front of the turret is essentially an armored empty space to allow penetrating shells to explode in.

No one could have ever written this saga as a movie or book set.  No one would have believed any of it was possible.

But it is happening.

In reply to aircooled :

Due North of China in Russia is a region called the Northern resource region by Chinese. Since the 2 wars between China and Russia.   Chinese citizens have been slowly occupying it. Some legally, while others secretly.  Russian's so far have totally ignored the occupation.    Probably due to other matters or even part of Putin's grow Russian population program.  
    China itself is perfectly content to play the long game.   To Chinese,  100 years is nothing.  

That's a lot of craters. Just how big is a howitzer crater anyway?

Yahoo.com-Business Insider: Satellite images showing thousands of craters at a battle site in eastern Ukraine capture just how intense the 'savage' artillery fight there actually is

That's looking pretty WWI !

It looks like that is a single track road, so the track would be about 6 feet?  So the big craters maybe 8 feet across (152 / 155 mm?).

One wonders what they where shooting at with no buildings and no sign of tracks.  Maybe a troop concentration at the crossroads?  It also shows the the fire is not exactly precise.  You can also see why the Russians are running low on ammo.

And then there is the accuracy of Ukraine's artillery, within a few meters?

Yahoo.com-Ukrainska Pravda: Soledar: Wagner Group militants under crossfire

In reply to aircooled :

The only problem is that I heard Poland was only going to send 14.  As good as the Leopard's are 14 is not going to make much of a difference.

In reply to Aaron_King :

It's as if each country in Europe is waiting to see who goes first, kind of like junior high teens at their first school dance. Is there an up to date list somewhere of what arms each NATO country has sent to Ukraine over the last year? They appear to be a bunch of Bob Costas from my armchair general's couch.

The battle for Soledar may be over for now.  Despite Ukrainian insistence they are still fighting, it sounds like some geolocated pictures are showing up of Russians in the western side of the town, and not in active combat.  This may also turn into an utterly worthless victory, as the use of massive amounts of infantry may have been feasible in building-to-building fighting, there is a decent amount of open ground between Soledar and Bakhmut, which is Russia's (Wagner's) real objective.  Lots of room for artillery and drones to keep an advance at bay.

The issues with the Leopard 2 transfer are several, some of which have been overcome. First, there's the question of technology transfer; contracts typically give the country of manufacture the right to veto any future transfers. Ironically, Germany ran into this earlier when Switzerland temporarily denied the request to transfer ammunition for the Gepard's guns to Ukraine. Based on public statements by some officials, it appears that Germany is likely on-board with the Leopard 2 move at this point, but nothing has been formally signed to my knowledge.

Second, there's the problem of training, supplying, maintaining, and employing new technologies. There's going to be considerable work needed to make sure that Ukraine can properly make use of any new equipment, and that takes time and money. Providing adequate support means building yet another chain to Western sources of knowledge and materiel. The haphazard nature of donations to the Ukrainian military means that there are many more problems with supply than there should be (and demonstrating beyond any doubt that NATO interoperability was purely theoretical). For example, the German PzH 2000 155mm artillery provided uses different shells than other NATO 155 tubes, so there's a whole separate supply chain that needs to be maintained.

Then there's the related issue of depleting military stockpiles at a time of an expanding Russian threat, and more importantly, determining how to pay for replacement equipment and materiel. NATO countries are going to be stuck with the difficult choice of building up their military spending or hoping that the outcome in Ukraine reduces the Russian threat for the foreseeable future (and bandwagoning onto the US commitment, as usual). But there's a point of maximum danger where the stockpiles are going to run out and the replacements haven't been provided (or even decided on), and if something happens at that point, the West is going to be proper berkeleyed.

Finally, there's the ongoing dance of escalation. This is why every new step on the escalation ladder is being taken so slowly and carefully: Western governments are waiting to see how Russia reacts. HIMARS? OK, as long as the Ukrainians don't send the rockets into Russia, the Russians seem to be tolerating it. So what's next? APCs? Yeah, those aren't going to be too risky. And air defense systems are defensive by definition, so they're OK. But MBTs? Well, with enough of them, the Ukrainians could get pretty frisky, so we'd better take it slow.

Aaron_King said:

In reply to aircooled :

The only problem is that I heard Poland was only going to send 14.  As good as the Leopard's are 14 is not going to make much of a difference.

The idea of course is others will give some also.  It's not a huge game changer, but it can certainly help.  The Leopards primary advantage over the tanks there is that it can take them out at much longer range and is going to be much more accurate firing on the move (similar effectiveness as the Abrams).  With the help of the west, I can imagine they will leverage these advantages as much as possible.  Don't expect to see one charging into a town unsupported.

Regarding artillery accuracy.  The M777 is known to be far more accurate than the Russian guns the Ukrainians where using before (also keeps the round usage down).

It does look like Soledar is in Russian (Wagner really) hands.  This of course has been expected for at least a few days, and I think the Wagner guy was claiming it was captured a week ago (I guess he got lucky this time).  Not a huge surprise, these are the best the Russians (Wagner) has at this point, and this is all they got.  Still can't get Bakmut, which was supposed to be the goal (I am pretty sure they claimed that captured a while back also), and no one is entirely sure why that is important.  Meanwhile, the Ukrainians are making advances in the north on the front (also slow, but not nearly as slow)

frenchyd said:

DarkMonohue said:

Regarding corruption within Ukraine:

https://www.youtube.com/embed/ikFKclarb1U?rel=0&start=188

 

Still occurring, and more to the point, still being rooted out.  Interpret that any way you'd like.  I'm encouraged to see it being addressed. 

 

That's totally disingenuous.  Hey!  America puts politicians in Jail regularly. So does Russia, China any country in  the world.  
     Right Now Ukraine is putting thier solders in a fight everybody thought they couldnt win.  But they are winning!  Beating the rich, powerful, Russians. With the help of countries that think it's wrong to occupy another country.  
Hey Russia, live by the sword, die by the sword. 
       

What politicians has "America" put in jail recently? And then name the others to support "regularly."

In reply to z31maniac :

Perhaps you can follow the news?  

The best thing you can do when you walk into a mine field is to immediately stop walking, and slowly retrace you steps if you can....

probably all we need to discuss on that point... 

Update:  The capture of Soledar might actually work a bit against the Russians a bit.  They seem to be a wee bit shy about admitting who the actual effective fighting units are.

• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on January 13 that Russian forces seized Soledar on the evening of January 12.
• The MoD’s initial announcement (which did not mention the Wagner Group) sparked a significant backlash within the Russian information space, forcing the MoD to issue a second announcement crediting Wagner.
• Prigozhin likely seeks to use the victory in Soledar as a bargaining tool to elevate his authority in Russia.
• Putin may be taking measures to cultivate a cadre of milbloggers loyal to Putin and the Russian MoD to undermine Prigozhin’s effort to elevate himself.
• High-ranking Ukrainian officials continue to forecast an intensification of Ukrainian and Russian operations in the spring of 2023 and that a Russian offensive from Belarus remains unlikely.
• Russian officials’ responses to Russians who have fled abroad risks dividing the Kremlin and the ultra-nationalist pro-war community even further.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly ordered Russian occupation officials to deport Ukrainian children to Russia under medical relocation schemes.
• Russian forces conducted limited counterattacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line while Ukrainian forces reportedly continued counteroffensive operations near Kreminna.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations around Soledar, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka.
• Ukrainian Intelligence reported that Russian forces seek to raise personnel numbers to two million by an unspecified date.
• Ukrainian partisan attacks continue to divert Russian resources away from the frontline to rear areas in occupied territories.