History in the Making: Russian Invasion

The guess is the Russians are waiting for the 24th of February for their great offensive to commemorate the huge success of the initial invasion (!).  Talk of large reserves of troops in some areas.  Still not expecting any huge gains.

A few attempts at offensive operations in the southern area (maybe probing attacks), to great destruction of the attackers (as noted above).  It looks like the Ukrainians are making very good use of very accurate artillery.

Some observations on the western commitment here:

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US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin signaled on February 14 that the Ukraine Defense Contact Group’s 54 member states will continue to support Ukraine in the long run. Austin stated that the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (a coalition of 54 states supporting Ukraine’s defense) will “support Ukraine's fight for freedom over the long haul” and will support Ukraine during a spring counteroffensive.[1] The Washington Post reported on February 13 that the Biden administration will announce a new aid package for Ukraine “in the next week.”[2]

The Washington Post reported that US officials have privately signaled to Ukraine that Western security aid to Ukraine is finite, however. The Washington Post reported on February 13 that an anonymous US government official stated that US government officials are trying to “impress upon [Ukrainian officials] that [the US Government] can’t do anything and everything forever.”[3] The Washington Post also reported that US officials stated that recent Western aid packages for Ukraine “represent Kyiv’s best chance to decisively change the course of the war.“[4]

Western reporting indicates that there continue to be Western concerns about Ukraine’s determination to hold Bakhmut. The Washington Post also reported that US defense planners assess that Ukrainian forces are unable to simultaneously defend Bakhmut and launch a spring counteroffensive and have urged Ukraine to prioritize the spring counteroffensive over defending Bakhmut.[5] ISW continues to assess that Ukraine’s decision to defend Bakhmut is likely a strategically sound effort despite its costs for Ukraine.[6] Ukraine’s defense of Bakhmut has forced the Kremlin to expend much of the Wagner Group as a force and commit high-value Russian airborne forces to sustain attritional advances.[7] Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut has degraded significant Russian forces and will likely set favorable conditions for a future Ukrainian counteroffensive. Had Russian troops taken Bakhmut without significant Ukrainian resistance they could have hoped to expand operations in ways that could have forced Ukraine to construct hasty defensive positions in less favorable terrain. Therefore, Ukraine’s defense of Bakhmut and undertaking an effort to set conditions for a counteroffensive are likely complementary, not mutually exclusive, activities considering that Russian forces would have continued their offensive beyond Bakhmut had Ukraine yielded the city earlier.

"Western officials say Russians offensive 'more aspirational than realistic' - Makes sense, considering that since the start of this "offensive" Ukraine has either taken back or is contesting one of the smaller towns near Bakhmut- Krasna Hora, to the northeast.

https://vxtwitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1626028187913228290?s=46&t=MPhhtqM4M5TO7ZbzbyY13w

Wagner's evacuation of the dead or wounded is nearly non-existent. Current claim is that they're loosing up to 80% of their assault units up front.

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1626019349503901697

Putin is still "Convinced" he will prevail in Ukraine, and will likely attack other nations after Ukraine:

https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-could-attack-other-countries-if-wins-ukraine-russia-experts-2023-2

Videos from Bakhmut shows that it's not falling yet- Ukrainians say the routes aren't safe, but are collaborating other stories that say Wagner is not being reinforced.

https://vxtwitter.com/wartranslated/status/1625908304676368392

Mark Hertling on why Russia failed, and what Ukraine is doing:

https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1626061375666626560?s=20

Reporters being threatened in other nations by Russia-

https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1625906353049939985

Sweden is sending Jas 39 Gripen fighter Jets to Ukraine. No word on the status of F-16s to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1625917693676093455

Prigozhyn, lead clown of Wagner, now claims the encirclement of Bakhmut won't occur until March-April:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1625912951373692929

Ben Wallace told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that Russian troops are suffering “almost First World War levels of attrition and with success rates of a matter of metres” in Ukraine.He said: “We now estimate 97 per cent of the whole Russian army is in Ukraine and to put that in perspective that means that those tens of thousands of miles of border Russians have with obviously China, with Norway, with Finland, imagine all those people are stuck now in Ukraine suffering very high levels of casualties.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/world/ukraine-conflict-russian-troops-suffering-first-world-war-levels-of-attrition-as-ben-wallace-outline-uk-response-and-support-to-ukraine-4027818

Kadyrov called on the leaders of the regions not to "trumpet" about the losses in Ukraine The head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, criticized the leaders of Russian regions for publishing information about Russia's losses in the war with Ukraine. He wrote about this in his telegram channel. In his opinion, the military "choose this heroic path themselves" and do it "consciously." He urged “not to manipulate the topic of our heroes” and not to write that “so many died in such and such a region, and so many died in another.” The BBC Russian Service notes that Kadyrov's statement coincided with the moment when journalists began to record a sharp increase in the number of reports of dead Russian soldiers, both in social networks and in official statements.

Here is a link to some detail on Russia's kidnappings and reprogramming of Ukrainian children. I can't read it yet, I'm not strong enough tonight.

https://twitter.com/mykhed_o/status/1625866946246852608?s=20

GIRTHQUAKE said:

Sweden is sending Jas 39 Gripen fighter Jets to Ukraine. No word on the status of F-16s to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1625917693676093455

This is misleading. Sweden essentially has not ruled out sending Gripens, provided agreement and broad consensus with NATO - just like many other countries. No such agreement or consensus exists, nor is it even being actively considered at this time. It is a far cry from saying they are being sent.

Some updates on Russia ability to fight in it's next offensive(!), and the state of it's defense industry.  Again, it is bit amazing that the Russian army even functions anymore:

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Russia’s costly military campaign in Ukraine has likely significantly depleted Russian equipment and manpower reserves necessary to sustain a successful large-scale offensive in eastern Ukraine. UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told the BBC that the UK had not seen the Russian “massing of a single force to punch through in a big offensive” and noted that Russians are now trying to advance in Donbas at a “huge cost.”[1] Wallace estimated that Russia could have committed up to 97 percent of its army to the fight in Ukraine and that its combat effectiveness has decreased by 40 percent due to an “almost First World War level of attrition” that measures Russian advances in meters in human wave attacks. ISW cannot independently confirm Wallace’s estimates, but his observation that Russia lacks sufficient mechanized combat power for a breakthrough aligns with previous ISW assessments that the conventional Russian military must undergo significant reconstitution before regaining the ability to conduct effective maneuver warfare.[2] Wallace’s observations also suggest that Russia does not have untapped combat-ready reserves capable of executing a large-scale offensive, which is also ISW’s assessment.

Russia’s inability to regenerate expended mechanized vehicles in the short term further restricts Russian maneuver warfare capabilities. The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) reported that Russia lost about 50 percent of its T-72B and T-72B3M tanks and many T-80 tanks, forcing Russian forces to rely on older equipment.[3] Wallace noted that two-thirds of Russia’s tanks are destroyed or unusable. The UK Ministry of Defense assessed that the Kremlin likely recognizes that Russia’s low industrial output is a “critical weakness,” and that Russian production is not meeting the Kremlin’s long-term requirements.[4] Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev, for example, called for increased production of weapons and modern tanks on February 9.[5] The Norwegian Intelligence Service (NIS) noted that Russia is still capable of producing large quantities of small arms, missiles, and tanks but that its defense industry base (DIB) will continue to struggle to offset the effects of Western sanctions.[6] The NIS added that Russia will also need to undergo an extensive effort to set up new production lines and will need time to recruit and train workers. Some Russian defense firms continue to complain that they do not have sufficient personnel to support the intensified industrial effort, while Russian pro-war milbloggers noted that Russia needs to immediately embark on modernization and personnel recruitment efforts to solve issues with tank production.[7] Such measures are unlikely to increase the Russian defense industry’s capacity to produce tanks rapidly and at scale, and would certainly not do so in time to affect the outcome of the current Russian offensive or of a Ukrainian counter-offensive launched in the coming months. The timely Western provisions of tanks and armored vehicles to Ukraine would further offset Russia’s ability to conduct mechanized warfare as Russia struggles to restart its defense production in the immediate term. Ukraine likely continues to have a window of opportunity to initiate large-scale counteroffensives over the next few months, but its ability to do so likely rests heavily on the speed and scale at which the West provides it the necessary materiel, particularly tanks and armored vehicles.

Balloons!!!

Looks like the Russian balloons are decoys to attract Ukrainian air defense... one would think the 10 mph airspeed would be a clue...

"Russia wants Ukraine to waste its ammunition on these balloons, which effectively cost them nothing at all," he said on national TV.

https://www.npr.org/2023/02/16/1157457205/ukraine-russia-balloons

At the same time, said balloons could also be used for reconissance so even speaking as a civillian I can't see why you want to leave them in the air.

02Pilot said:

GIRTHQUAKE said:

Sweden is sending Jas 39 Gripen fighter Jets to Ukraine. No word on the status of F-16s to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1625917693676093455

This is misleading. Sweden essentially has not ruled out sending Gripens, provided agreement and broad consensus with NATO - just like many other countries. No such agreement or consensus exists, nor is it even being actively considered at this time. It is a far cry from saying they are being sent.

Sorry about that! Thanks for the catch.

In reply to GIRTHQUAKE :

Well the good thing about shooting down balloons is that you really shouldn't have to waste an expensive fighter jet on it.

Some random stuff:

Uhmmm....

Yes, that is a Russian cruise missile, and yes, that is a Romanian flag!

Estimated Russian (daily average) losses:

If you where curious about how Wagner deals with people who surrendered.  This is clearly not a video, and I would hope most would not want to see it, but this ends with a sledgehammer (and no I have no interest in seeing it either):

aircooled said:

Some random stuff:

Uhmmm....

Yes, that is a Russian cruise missile, and yes, that is a Romanian flag!

I'm not certain that is a legitimate photo. Image below is a screenshot from this page: https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3668362-romania-declines-to-confirm-that-russian-missile-crossed-into-its-airspace-today.html

Yeah, thanks.   I should have known that was a bit to fortunate of a picture.

Update on recent missile spasm.  And how nice... those nice Russians are helping out those "orphaned" children (mother screaming in background):

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Russian forces conducted another missile strike on infrastructure facilities throughout Ukraine on February 16. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces fired 32 air- and sea-launched missiles at Ukraine, including 12 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles from Tu-95MS aircraft over the Caspian Sea, 8 Kalibr cruise missiles from a Black Sea frigate, 12 Kh-22 cruise missiles from Tu-22M3 long-range bombers over Kursk Oblast, and 2 Kh-59 cruise missiles from Su-35 aircraft over Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast.[1] Ukrainian air defense reportedly shot down 14 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles and 2 Kh-59 cruise missiles, 6 over Mykolaiv Oblast, 2 over Kherson Oblast, and the remainder over western regions of Ukraine.[2] Russian missiles struck infrastructure targets in Lviv, Poltava, Kirovohrad, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.[3] Ukrainian Air Force Command spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat noted that Russian forces have changed their tactics and are launching cruise missiles at night, instead of in the middle of day, in order to take Ukrainian air defense forces by surprise.[4]

Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Russian Federation Commissioner for Children’s Rights Maria Lvova-Belova on February 16, confirming that the Kremlin is directly involved in facilitating the deportation and adoption of Ukrainian children into Russian families. During an in-person working meeting with Lvova-Belova, Putin stated that the number of applications submitted by Russian citizens for the adoption of children from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts is growing significantly.[5] Lvova-Belova noted that she herself adopted a child from Mariupol and stated that she has particularly been working with Russian families to facilitate the placement of Ukrainian children into Russian homes, highlighting the story of one Moscow Oblast family who took custody of nine children.[6] Lvova-Belova confirmed that Russian regional governors are facilitating adoption efforts and emphasized the role of Chechen Head Ramzan Kadyrov’s efforts to work with her on programs for “difficult teenagers.”[7] Lvova-Belova’s and Putin’s meeting is likely a result of Putin’s January 3 list of instructions to Lvova-Belova and the occupation heads of occupied oblasts directing them to take a number of measures ostensibly to support children in occupied areas of Ukraine.[8] This meeting is additionally noteworthy because it suggests that Putin himself is overseeing and directing efforts to facilitate deportation and adoption programs, which ISW continues to assess may constitute a violation of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.[9]

I wonder if those Tu95's have any fighter cover? It sure would be a shame for some low flying fast movers to pop up and let loose some AMRAAM's in their direction. 

Co-worker and I were discussing Ukrainian options.  He's wanting to see a matching "sword" to go with the Ukrainian "shield" and see some offensive action into Russian territory.  Personally, I think that would be a mistake, but I do wonder what would happen if the Ukrainians were able to use nautical drones and start mining Black Sea ports (e.g. Novorossiysk) to try and hurt the Russians economically rather than militarily.   Or would that risk alienating other countries whose ships happen to be in Russian ports?

In reply to stroker :

On the one hand, if those ships are in Russian ports, alienating them is probably not a big risk, with the exception perhaps of Turkey. Economic warfare has a long history, and the concept of naval blockade has constantly evolved with technology and circumstance. Conceptually, it's plausible.

That said, there are two fundamental questions. First, is it worth the effort? Ukraine has finite resources, and the chances of making a dent in Russia's economy by interdicting trade in the Black Sea are low, particularly when it shares alternate lines of supply with China and Iran. Far more effective in my view to target Russia's means of sea control, i.e. its navy, than commercial traffic. Second, will the Russians respond in kind, and more effectively? Russian gas still flows into Ukraine, Ukrainian grain is being shipped out, prisoner exchanges are being conducted, etc., all of which can be halted. Overall, I don't think there's much opportunity for effective action here.

bobzilla said:

I wonder if those Tu95's have any fighter cover? It sure would be a shame for some low flying fast movers to pop up and let loose some AMRAAM's in their direction. 

While that would make for an exciting Top Gun movie, realistically that is about as practical as shooting down an AWACS, as the bombers are firing cruise missiles from standoff range and high altitude.  

02Pilot said:

In reply to stroker :

On the one hand, if those ships are in Russian ports, alienating them is probably not a big risk, with the exception perhaps of Turkey. Economic warfare has a long history, and the concept of naval blockade has constantly evolved with technology and circumstance. Conceptually, it's plausible.

That said, there are two fundamental questions. First, is it worth the effort? Ukraine has finite resources, and the chances of making a dent in Russia's economy by interdicting trade in the Black Sea are low, particularly when it shares alternate lines of supply with China and Iran. Far more effective in my view to target Russia's means of sea control, i.e. its navy, than commercial traffic. Second, will the Russians respond in kind, and more effectively? Russian gas still flows into Ukraine, Ukrainian grain is being shipped out, prisoner exchanges are being conducted, etc., all of which can be halted. Overall, I don't think there's much opportunity for effective action here.

Interesting point.  I happen to agree with your assessment.  Blockades are long term.  Russia has other ports  so essentials could still get through.  It would be an annoyance rather than an effective weapon. Costly  and vulnerable weapon st thst.  
  The civilized world  is causing much more grief  to Russia but that always hurts the population at large more than the intended target. 
     Dictators don't care about the people they only care about the power.  
     But Russia is weakening.  The worst part will be when this whole event is over and things return to normal. 
  Russia's normal will be so much worse than global normal.  But then periodically Russia does that to itself.  Those that would leave, pretty much have left.  

Because he is a despot and not a leader, putin has chosen the past as his model to make russia great again.  Had putin done a resource inventory and made a forward looking business-plan, he could have done A LOT with the resources and talent inside the russian borders. "Looking forward into the past to find something that was never lost" is seldom a good plan.

And yet here we are.

Despite the obviously slanted source, this piece offers an interesting insight into how what Russians see and read is very different to what we might understand it to be. How Do Russians Read '1984'?

It seems Orwell is once again ahead of his time: "Who controls the past controls the future; who controls the present controls the past."

NOHOME said:

Because he is a despot and not a leader, putin has chosen the past as his model to make russia great again.  Had putin done a resource inventory and made a forward looking business-plan, he could have done A LOT with the resources and talent inside the russian borders. "Looking forward into the past to find something that was never lost" is seldom a good plan.

 

And yet here we are.

I've often wondered the same thing - Why has so much economic opportunity been wasted?  I think this is partly why Germany will eventually provide more help to Ukraine - simply out of anger towards Russia for screwing up what they thought would turn into a peaceful symbiotic economic situation. Something along the lines of, "WTF?  We thought Europe was done with all of this sh1t??" 

But... Putin is a dictator... who by nature are paranoid. One theory is Russia is trying to move its defensive borders back to more geographically defendable positions.  Now invasion from who?  or why?  That is a question only Putin knows the answer to.  Bit such a theory also indicates Russia won't stop at Ukraine. 

As most have likely seen, the US president made a bit of a surprise visit to Kyiv, which has to have steam coming out of Putin's ears.   "Surprise" is only the case in a long term case, since apparently there was contact with Russia to make them well aware he would be there (i.e. don't have a missile spasm).   As far as realistic danger to the president, I would suspect that would be very low (obvious risk of serious escalation), but of course the long radical is always a concern (from either side).

Russia is... again... accusing Ukraine of setting up a nuclear incident to escalate.  This might be more believable if they hadn't done it multiple times before.  Let me guess, Russia is also just about ready to use tactical nukes.... yawn.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-accuses-kyiv-planning-stage-nuclear-incident-2023-02-19/

Also of note is that the anniversary of the invasion is coming up on Friday (Feb 24th).

It appears that the great Russian offensive is actually going on.  Not a good sign (for them) that it's not entirely obvious.  Rumors are that the US is encouraging a Ukrainian offensive as soon as possible.   Just as the Russians are petering out would be good timing, but Ukraine certainly has not gotten the new heavy tanks they want (and could use) yet. 

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The major phase of Russian offensive operations in Luhansk Oblast is underway, and Russia likely lacks sufficient uncommitted reserves to dramatically increase the scale or intensity of the offensive this winter. Russian conventional ground forces are generally deploying and fighting in normal doctrinal formations and units rather than in battalion tactical groups or other ad hoc structures. The observed absence of several critical tank units suggests that the Russian military continues to struggle to replace equipment, especially tanks, lost during previous failed offensive operations. Russian forces almost certainly still have some reconstituted mechanized units in reserve, but the commitment of these limited reserves to the Luhansk Oblast frontline is unlikely to change the course of the ongoing offensive dramatically. The Russian offensive will very likely continue for some time and may temporarily gain momentum as the final reserves are committed—if they are—but will very likely culminate well short of its objectives and likely short of achieving operationally significant gains.

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The Russians are receiving less benefit from this return to normal in military operations than they might have hoped because of the badly degraded condition of their forces. They did not leave enough time to train their mobilized reservists to standards sufficient to support large-scale offensive mechanized maneuver warfare, as ISW has repeatedly observed; and they clearly lack the equipment necessary to kit out their reconstituted units. The coherent 3rd and 144th Motorized Rifle Divisions attacking on the Luhansk Oblast axis have thus made relatively few gains since the offensive began.

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Here is basically what the Russian have accomplished.  This is one month ago:

And currently.  As you can see Bakhmut is in a bit of danger and may be the entirety of the gain of this great offensive (at likely great cost):

Two good pieces from the Foreign Affairs series on the Ukraine conflict:

The Persistence of Great Power Politics

Kiev and Moscow are Fighting Two Different Wars

Putin yells at the clouds about how NATO started the war, and more subtle nuclear threats.... same, same:

"It's they who have started the war. And we are using force to end it," Putin said before an audience of lawmakers, state officials and soldiers who have fought in Ukraine.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/putin-ukraine-war-speech-today-blames-us-nato-after-one-year-invasion/

In more interesting news, Prygozhyn the leader of the Wagner group is now openly complaining that Russia is strangling his supplies.  Wagner has of course been their most successful units, but have been a bit vocal about how great they are, and essentially embarrass the traditional Russian military.  They have apparently pissed up the chain enough to get a response and the Russians seem to be willing to disable their most effective unit out of spite.  

Clearly translation issues here:

Putin yells at the clouds about how NATO started the war, and more subtle nuclear threats.... same, same:

"It's they who have started the war. And we are using force to end it," Putin said before an audience of lawmakers, state officials and soldiers who have fought in Ukraine.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/putin-ukraine-war-speech-today-blames-us-nato-after-one-year-invasion/

In more interesting news, Prygozhyn the leader of the Wagner group is now openly complaining that Russia is strangling his supplies.  Wagner has of course been their most successful units, but have been a bit vocal about how great they are, and essentially embarrass the traditional Russian military.  They have apparently pissed up the chain enough to get a response and the Russians seem to be willing to disable their most effective unit out of spite.  

Clearly translation issues here:

Putin yells at the clouds about how NATO started the war, and more subtle nuclear threats.... same, same:

"It's they who have started the war. And we are using force to end it," Putin said before an audience of lawmakers, state officials and soldiers who have fought in Ukraine.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/putin-ukraine-war-speech-today-blames-us-nato-after-one-year-invasion/

In more interesting news, Prygozhyn the leader of the Wagner group is now openly complaining that Russia is strangling his supplies.  Wagner has of course been their most successful units, but have been a bit vocal about how great they are, and essentially embarrass the traditional Russian military.  They have apparently pissed up the chain enough to get a response and the Russians seem to be willing to disable their most effective unit out of spite.  

Clearly translation issues here: