I always remind myself when I see these things happening, that those who lived through history asked themselves the same thing when they saw the same thing play out:
"How can this be happening in MODERN TIMES??? This isn't (insert year from about 100 years ago) anymore, this shouldn't be possible!"
Ian F (Forum Supporter) said:02Pilot said:Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:eastsideTim said:Seems like overkill for an army that likely doesn't have much amphibious assault capacity.
Yeah, I looked up that spot on the map and it's pretty random. There's a lot more beach to defend besides that. Obviously the Perekop Isthmus is the choke point for invaders, and it would behoove the Russians to keep Ukraine from flanking them via sea, but why Vitino? Unless they are so paranoid that they expect to have to fight against a major force from a NATO country.
Also, it's an admission that they think there's a very real chance that they could lose the mainland. Weird.
The Russian domestic narrative for years has been to build up the threat from NATO. Now, with NATO assisting Ukraine, this has been ramped up. If you've been telling your people that NATO is a threat that has to be taken seriously, you need to look like you're preparing for it. Sure, it's really unlikely to happen, but you don't want to risk being accused of being unprepared, no matter how expensive, inefficient, and pointless your preparations might be in light of the real danger. Think of it as the TSA Model of Security....
19th century thinking in a 21st century world. I maintain this is why the whole of Europe is so ticked off about the invasion. After some 30 years of post-Cold War peace, I'm betting the vast majority thought this sort of crap was behind them. Nobody was ever going to invade Russia. Ever. The economic ties made the idea essentially unthinkable.
But I suppose when Putin has told a lie for so long, he started to believe that lie himself.
The lies are the cover-up for how lousy Putin's run the country. "It's not my fault it's theirs".
eastsideTim said:Seems like overkill for an army that likely doesn't have much amphibious assault capacity.
Idle hands and all that. If you were a local commander would you have your troops dig or drink?
At least that is my take on this.
In Ukraine, a competition was announced for a UAV that will land on Red Square
https://mil.in.ua/uk/news/v-ukrayini-ogolosyly-konkurs-na-bpla-yakyj-syade-na-chervonij-ploshhi/
In reply to Noddaz :
So, someone needs to turn a Cessna 172 into a drone?
In reply to eastsideTim :
Some interesting history involving a Cessna 172 and Russia. One actuallly snuck past the USSR's air defense systems and landed in Red Square!:
https://taskandpurpose.com/tech-tactics/soviet-union-mathias-rust-cessna/
....“It was coming at me very fast, and dead-on. And it went whoosh!—right over me. I remember how my heart felt, beating very fast,” he explained. “This was exactly the moment when you start to ask yourself: Is this when they shoot you down?”
Before he knew it, Soviet Mig-23 interceptors pulled up alongside him from both beneath him and his left. The single-seat, swing-wing Mig-23 was capable of speeds in excess of Mach 2.3 (more than 300 miles per hour faster than an F-35) and was positively massive compared to Rust’s little Cessna. In order to flank him, the Migs had to lower their landing gear and extend their flaps to scrub their speed enough not to scream past Rust and his single-prop 172......
This is a Yak 12 BTW:
An interesting rumor style update. If they are taking out air defense, they clearly intend to use aircraft / helicopters in support of their offensive which can make for a much faster advance and of course create all sorts of havoc behind the lines.
From Ruzzian Military bloggers near to the frontline:
According to information from the field, now, on the eve of the offensive, Ukrainian army is cutting out our air defense with high-precision weapons. The Himars are is use. Their aircraft-type UAVs are often used as bait and provocation. They can afford it.
In fact, this is a struggle for the sky, for intelligence and for the efficiency of information for hour X.
aircooled said:An interesting rumor style update. If they are taking out air defense, they clearly intend to use aircraft / helicopters in support of their offensive which can make for a much faster advance and of course create all sorts of havoc behind the lines.
From Ruzzian Military bloggers near to the frontline:
According to information from the field, now, on the eve of the offensive, Ukrainian army is cutting out our air defense with high-precision weapons. The Himars are is use. Their aircraft-type UAVs are often used as bait and provocation. They can afford it.
In fact, this is a struggle for the sky, for intelligence and for the efficiency of information for hour X.
I'm guessing it'll still need to be low flying, just to keep below the horizon for systems based in Russia. I would also guess they aren't going to sit around waiting for the Russians to reinforce their air defense. This weekend could be it.
aircooled said:In reply to eastsideTim :
Some interesting history involving a Cessna 172 and Russia. One actuallly snuck past the USSR's air defense systems and landed in Red Square!:
https://taskandpurpose.com/tech-tactics/soviet-union-mathias-rust-cessna/
In reply to eastsideTim :
I'd no military strategist, but it would be amusing to make it look like you're about to launch a major offensive, and then just.... not. Keep taking out their defenses here and there but never actually serve the main course for a few days, maybe a week or so, to wear down their readiness first. Nobody can be at full alert for very long without hindering their effectiveness.
I suspect you can certainly expect some feints, if for nothing else, as noted, to see the reaction. What systems turn on etc. Of course, keeping the offensive units on ready for a long time is also expensive, but not nearly as stressful.
The Chinese have been doing this to Taiwan for a while now, though I suspect the Taiwanese are pretty aware that they are feints at this point, they have done in many many times.
Here is another interesting Russian plan. Kind of reminds me when a car manufacturer makes a very marginal car and gives it an aggressive sounding name.
Russian commanders are reportedly constructing specialized company-size units within key frontline formations engaged in urban combat to reinforce the diminished combat effectiveness of most Russian units. A reliable Ukrainian reserve officer released a reportedly captured document on April 6 detailing the recruitment of personnel (who receive the status of BARS reservists) to form new “Storm Z” companies within elements of the 8th Combined Arms Army (Southern Military District) and the 1st Army Corps, the armed forces of the Donetsk People’s Republic.[14] Each “Storm Z” company is created outside of conventional army unit structure and apparently is formed of newly recruited reservists and attached in some manner to existing Russian regiments and brigades, rather than adding additional assets or providing specialized training to existing frontline companies. It is unclear at this time how these “Storm Z” units fit into Russian command structures at the battalion level and above and why Russian units are forming new companies, continuing a standing Russian tendency throughout the war in Ukraine to break down doctrinal unit structures. Each company is comprised of 100 personnel, broken into four capture squads (10 personnel each), four fire support squads (10 personnel each), a 2-person company command element, a 5-person combat engineering group, an 8-person reconnaissance group, a three-person medevac group, and a 2-person UAV crew.[15] ”Storm Z” companies are intended to conduct urban combat operations or operations in complicated geographic areas to capture important and strategic objects such as strongholds, command posts, and communication centers.[16] The Ukrainian reserve officer noted that the personnel that staff these companies receive 10 to 15 days of refresher training, a remarkably short amount of time to adequately train personnel (even reservists with some experience) to perform complex combat tasks and create unit cohesion.
In reply to aircooled :
"Storm Z ready? Now run ahead and find out where the enemy is, then we'll shoot them."
Yes... sounds like a fancy term for "cannon fodder".
Ran across this article mentioning that since the invasion, Russian Internet access restrictions have risen to Chinese levels, with major social media sites and news sites completely blocked:
https://www.wired.com/story/amnezia-vpn-russia-censorship/
Highlights:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_censorship_in_Russia#Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine
Pete. (l33t FS) said:In reply to eastsideTim :
I'd no military strategist, but it would be amusing to make it look like you're about to launch a major offensive, and then just.... not. Keep taking out their defenses here and there but never actually serve the main course for a few days, maybe a week or so, to wear down their readiness first. Nobody can be at full alert for very long without hindering their effectiveness.
That reminded me of a JRT I was on. IIRC it was at the closed down England AFB around 96. We were on a month long JRT. Debrief was there is an island with two countries splitting it in the middle. They were at the beginning stages of war. We sat there doing 12/12/7 for 3 weeks before we got the word and launched all hell on the other side. In those 3 weeks me and my roommate got very good as partners playing pinochle. There's a reason military says that you sleep when you can because you never know when you won't be able to.
In reply to Stampie :
....actually, I'd gotten the idea from a book. Without going into the specifics that would require a whole lot of backstory, the attacking commander had to get through a choke point and the defenders knew it, and were waiting.
So, he sent some missiles through to attack their defenses.
Then waited six hours, then sent more missiles through.
Then waited a couple days, then sent some more.
Then a few hours, etc.
Finally, after judging that the defenses had been worn to nubs and the defenders had been properly frazzled and fatigued, the actual assault began.
Starting with a missile bombardment...
Some more details on the raid the Ukrainians did a while back. One of the few failures that has been known / released.
https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-army-failed-regain-zaporizhzhia-050511020.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
At the end of October 2022, the fighters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine tried to de-occupy the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, the Times writes about this.
Journalists of the publication, referring to anonymous sources of intelligence and the Ukrainian Navy, claim that the operation took place at the end of October. 600 military men on 30 boats took part in it. They had prepared stockpiles of weapons: heavy machine guns, MK-19 grenade launchers and anti-tank weapons.
Ukrainian defenders tried to get to the left bank of the Dnepr river. But the Russians built a dense system of fortifications around the ZNPP and completely mined the territory.
Despite the danger of an accident at the station, the Russians used artillery and tanks against Ukrainian units. A small group of Ukrainian soldiers still managed to land on the beach, but the operation had to be abandoned after a three-hour unsuccessful exchange of fire with the enemy, according to The Times.
Russians have build a massive anti-tank trench. It's hard to say exactly where it is but I suspect it is along the expected line of attack south of Zaporozhye (north of Crimea). Bridging equipment of just bulldozers could defeat that rather quickly, but it does slow things down and potentially creates choke points.
Russian troops dug a 70-kilometer "mega-trench" in the Zaporizhia region, - Center for Journalistic Research.
It was found on satellite images of Sentinel-2. 70 km is almost a third of the length of the Zaporozhye region from east to west (205 km) and is approximately equal to the distance from Kherson to Nikolaev or from Vienna to Bratislava.
It is reported that dugouts in the Zaporizhzhya steppes are being built by laborers from Central Asia, who are brought in on shifts.
It looks like Russia's electrical infrastructure attacks are a failure at this point (clearly a lot of damage done), and some more potential for dissent inside the Kremlin.
Russia’s missile campaign to degrade Ukraine’s unified energy infrastructure has failed definitively, and Russia appears to have abandoned the effort. Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko announced on April 8 that Ukraine is resuming energy exports for the first time since October 11, 2022.[24] Russian authorities began efforts in October to degrade Ukrainian energy infrastructure to a significant extent by the end of winter, which Russians consider March 1;[25] however, the series of large-scale Russian missile strikes on energy infrastructure failed to achieve the assessed Russian aims of causing a humanitarian disaster, weakening Ukrainian military capabilities, and forcing Ukraine to negotiate. State-run Russian media acknowledged this failure on March 1.[26] Russia likely abandoned the effort soon after. The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (UK MoD) noted on April 8 that the frequency of Russian large-scale, long-range attacks on energy infrastructure has decreased since March 2023. The UK MoD assessed that Russia continues small-scale strikes (strikes using fewer than 25 munitions) with predictably less effect.[27] Russia maintains the capability to renew such strikes though, if it so desired. Halushchenko stated that Ukraine has the flexibility to adjust Ukrainian energy exports if the situation changes.[28]
The “Club of Angry Patriot’s” creation may offer several important insights into Kremlin dynamics and the danger to Putin’s regime elements within his inner circle fear. ISW previously reported that successful Ukrainian counteroffensives in Kharkiv Oblast and Lyman in September-October 2022 exposed a rift between the Kremlin’s anti-war and pro-war factions.[14] Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin also made similar remarks about the schisms among Kremlin officials.[15] The club’s preoccupation with the anti-war faction may indicate that the rift within the Kremlin deepened during the failed Russian winter offensive campaign or ahead of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. The concern over the expansion of the anti-war faction may also indicate that there is concern that Putin may be driven to accept a peace settlement by the threat of replacement. The group may be attempting to preempt the anti-war faction’s efforts to reduce the urgency of full-scale war in Ukraine.
Large US intelligence leak as you may have heard. Source is not known at this point, but it's primary damage is likely letting the enemy "know what you know" and may make it easier for them to block that gathering in the future in some cases. It does point a pretty bleak picture of the Russian forces, but also notes the Ukrainians are not in great shape either.
One interesting stat (indicated as low confidence) is the casualties situation. They estimate Russia at 189,500-223,000 with up to 43,000 killed. While Ukraine is estimated at 124,000-131,000 with up to 17,500 killed. (not sure if this includes civilian casualties, probably not?)
In reply to aircooled :
It's also worth it to note, there's been multiple "leaks" with several already being proven fake. No clue if it's counter-intelligence, or even what was truly leaked at this time or if it was all intentional.
Yeah, that is a very good point and reminder. Really hard to say when it's real or fake. Clearly, leading the Russians to think the Ukrainians are in bad shape can have a purpose. It does seem like some of it is at least based in reality though since it's a combination of things that don't all point one direction (e.g. from one side). Of course.... that could be next level trickery...
I think I found where that trench is based on the towns in the map above (approximation shown below). It is a rather interesting place to put large defenses. As you can see it is WELL south of the front lines (which are about at the top of the map shown), and appears to primarily protect the supply line into Melitopol (a likely target if you want to threaten Crimea and cut off Russian forces in the west). One aspect that might be in play also is if the Ukrainians get access to that coast it appears to protect, they will likely be able to attack the Kerch bridge (only supply route to Crimea that doesn't go through occupied territory).
Obviously there are certanly many other defenses build, but that one seems to stand out because of it's size.
In reply to aircooled :
Kind of looks like an attempt to force Ukraine to fight for Melitopol, instead of bypassing and cutting it off. Judging from the map, going around the west side, then south, may put them in swampy territory. Trying to go east around the trench probably puts them in closer range of artillery/rockets in Russia, or at least deep behind the lines. Either approach puts them in range of naval bombardment. The Russians may have actually done something smart. I'm hopeful there's already a good plan to deal with this.
Regarding the naval bombardment issue, if the Ukrainians are planning a march to the sea, I'm sure they already have plans to reduce the effectiveness of the Russian Navy if they get too close.
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