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aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
4/9/23 4:02 p.m.

They also now have a good supply of harpoon and the newer anti-ship missile they developed (the ones that took out the Moskva), so I would not expect much from the Russian navy beyond what they have been doing (lobbing cruise missiles from a distance).

If the Ukrainians do drive near the coast I wouldn't be surprised if you see little Russian naval activity in the Sea of Azov.  What is left of the Russian navy in Sevastopol (not sure there is much there now anyway) might have to make the choice of going all the way around Europe or make "channel dash" (WWII reference where the Germans needed to get their ships out of the Atlantic) across the Sea of Azov.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Channel_Dash

Opti
Opti SuperDork
4/11/23 5:05 p.m.

https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-china-america-pressure-interview/

"Europe must resist pressure to become ‘America’s followers,’ says Macron"

Don't think the US or the dollar is going to come out of this well

z31maniac
z31maniac MegaDork
4/11/23 5:28 p.m.
Opti said:

https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-china-america-pressure-interview/

"Europe must resist pressure to become ‘America’s followers,’ says Macron"

Don't think the US or the dollar is going to come out of this well



"...Macron emphasized his pet theory of “strategic autonomy” for Europe, presumably led by France, to become a “third superpower.” "

"He did not address the question of ongoing U.S. security guarantees for the Continent, which relies heavily on American defense assistance amid the first major land war in Europe since World War II."

 

Kreb (Forum Supporter)
Kreb (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
4/11/23 6:20 p.m.

The EU is already like herding cats. Having the herder being an egomaniac given to long cigarette breaks and soliloquies? Just no. And I think that Europe knows this. 

GIRTHQUAKE
GIRTHQUAKE SuperDork
4/11/23 6:23 p.m.

In reply to Opti :

Have you SEEN the responses to this? Australia literally named this behavior as why they dropped the French submarine program in favor of the US's. It seems like every nation that's commentating is clowning Marcon.

As our president said in the 90s, "The US is Europe's Moral center". I wouldn't have believed that, have I not had several Europeans openly agree with it.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
4/11/23 7:30 p.m.

France has always been a bit of a "problem child".  They tend to act like they are still the world super power they used to be, which is far from the case.  They are also very butt hurt that the US got the submarine deal from Australia (I think the French refused to sell them nuclear subs).   

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/14/aukus-nuclear-submarines-australia-commits-substantial-funds-into-expanding-us-shipbuilding-capacity

This one is pretty hard to take since it's pretty obvious the US is heavily involved and paying a lot to help out what is a very heavily European interest and the French want to make sure a clear rival to the US is well aware they have NO interest in supporting something that is important to the US.  It's also very important to France (because Taiwan is a major source of computer chips), but I guess they figure if they make friends with both sides, they can ride the middle.

I hear they were resistant to full integrating into NATO (something about demanding their own bases) and seem to be very willing to sell things to countries that Europe should probably know better than to (e.g. Iraq).  There are French components in some Russian weapons (tank sights I think).  Want to guess who sold Iraq a nuclear reactor? (The one the Israeli's blew up)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Opera

I am wondering if 02 has any good observations about Frances role and behavior in modern Europe.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
4/11/23 7:33 p.m.

Oh, and there is this.  One wonders at what point can Putin have him killed, or not be able to have him killed?  Maybe there is some sort of flow chart he can use.

---------------------

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is reportedly advancing his political aspirations by seeking to gain control of a Russian political party. Russian opposition outlet Meduza reported that Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s growing cooperation with members of the A Just Russia — For Truth party likely indicates that Prigozhin seeks to gain control over the party.[1] Meduza noted that four members of the party left to form a new movement, with some members citing the rapprochement between party leader Sergey Mironov and Prigozhin as the reason for their exit.[2] ISW has consistently reported on the growing relationship between Mironov and Prigozhin and assessed that Mironov’s advocacy for recognition of Wagner in Russia could trigger further fractionalization within the Kremlin.[3] Two Kremlin sources and one St. Petersburg government insider claimed that Prigozhin is pursuing a leadership position within A Just Russia — For Truth’s St. Petersburg branch to compete with St. Petersburg Governor Alexander Beglov for influence in the city. Meduza’s sources claimed that Prigozhin previously was interested in investing in the “Motherland” political party and may be interested in pursuing a position at the federal level. Mironov, in turn, is likely attempting to revive his political influence and use Prigozhin as a patron for his political ambitions. Meduza’s interlocutors indicated that the Russian Presidential Administration is unlikely to allow Prigozhin to gain control of the A Just Russia — For Truth party due to Prigozhin’s conflict with administration officials and with Beglov.

02Pilot
02Pilot PowerDork
4/12/23 8:50 a.m.

France is in some ways the last Western stronghold of traditional nationalism. There is a broadly-held cultural and political belief that France belongs among the leading nations of the world, one that has been created and maintained by the unique history of the last couple hundred years. Yes, France has suffered major defeats - 1814, 1871, and 1940 - but in every case they have been viewed as victims, of an emperor who took advantage of a failed revolution, of German imperialism, and of fascism, respectively, a view strongly shaped and encouraged by their own propaganda. This has promoted a sort of moral high ground on which French political leaders still stand, looking down on everyone around them.

The major irony, of course, is that they spend a lot of time being afraid that someone is going to knock them off that high ground, and they know they're not strong enough to stand on their own (though they won't admit it). So they form alliances and economic ties, for their own advantage, yes, but also to restrict and control the ambitions and efforts of stronger powers like Germany and the US. In an ideal world, France would love to be the leading power in Europe, a modern iteration of Napoleon's Continental System, but it can't because of the existence of Germany. And it would love to be the world's cultural and linguistic center, but it can't because of the existence of the US. So it has bound itself to both as a means to ensure that it still has a seat at the table, and to thwart efforts of the stronger powers to consolidate their respective positions and further weaken France's influence.

jharry3
jharry3 GRM+ Memberand Dork
4/12/23 9:34 a.m.

How can the French not be nationalistic considering the actual words of La Marseillaise?      "Let the blood spill and soak into the dirt"

(83) La Marseillaise, sung by Mireille Mathieu. American English subtitles. - YouTube

Kreb (Forum Supporter)
Kreb (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
4/12/23 9:56 a.m.

I remember reading a book profiling major figures of European intellectual history.  A big takeaway was how many of them were complete sh-ts on a personal level despite how they preached endlessly about loving the people. "I'm going to leave my wife and six kids so that I can run away from my creditors, berkeley duchesses, get drunk a lot and write my magnum opus". This is not unique to the French, but they and the Russians seem to have taken the attitude most to heart.

 

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
4/12/23 12:18 p.m.

It's looking like the Ukrainian offense will be pushed back a bit, partially because of the leaked info.  Of course... maybe some misdirection?  Although, it's really looking like most of the leaked info is real.  There was an editing attempt by Russia to change the casualty numbers reported in one document, but the statement by the US secretary of defense saying "this information should not be reported on" definitely points toward real.... of course....

 

Russia built 3 lines of defense along a 120-kilometer section in Zaporozhye, - British intelligence

So the Russian Federation is preparing for a possible assault on Melitopol. The three levels of defensive zones consist of a front line of forward combat positions, and then two zones of almost continuous, more complex defense. Each zone is located approximately 10-20 km from the previous one.

At the same time, the British Ministry of Defense believes that they will be of little use without a sufficient number of troops and artillery support.

 

The US does not believe that Ukraine can quickly end the war - CNN.

The publication writes that the Russian Federation may soon gain air superiority, and Ukraine may lose the ability to concentrate ground forces in a counteroffensive. One of the leaked secret US documents says that there will be a stalemate in the war in the coming months.

 

Ukraine delays counteroffensive - Washington Post

According to the publication, this was due to the weather, slow supplies of equipment and lack of ammunition. Also further complicating the planned counterattack is the leak of US intelligence documents.

Ian F (Forum Supporter)
Ian F (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
4/12/23 12:37 p.m.

In reply to aircooled :

Sounds like Prigozhin needs to avoid standing near any hi-rise windows... lest he accidentally fall out of one... 

Ian F (Forum Supporter)
Ian F (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
4/12/23 12:48 p.m.
z31maniac said:
Opti said:

https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-china-america-pressure-interview/

"Europe must resist pressure to become ‘America’s followers,’ says Macron"

Don't think the US or the dollar is going to come out of this well



"...Macron emphasized his pet theory of “strategic autonomy” for Europe, presumably led by France, to become a “third superpower.” "

"He did not address the question of ongoing U.S. security guarantees for the Continent, which relies heavily on American defense assistance amid the first major land war in Europe since World War II."

 

I imagine there will be a lot of scrambling for strategic political positions in the coming years as the various players start to seriously consider a land war scenario most thought would never happen. 

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
4/12/23 1:22 p.m.

And of course this (apparently wounded and begging for his life):

There is a video circulating online of Russian mercenaries beheading a Ukrainian soldier, ISIS-style

eastsideTim
eastsideTim UltimaDork
4/12/23 1:23 p.m.

I wish this leak had been a psyop campaign like some rumored ones from the 80s that showed the USSR how far ahead of them we were, but it is definitely looking like it's real.  Unless it is really good, but I'd assume Ukrainian weaknesses would be downplayed if it was.  
 

Hopefully, allies can provide enough AA equipment to prevent Russia from gaining air superiority, because if their bombing of civilian targets was already bad, we ain't seen nothing yet if they can fly over Ukraine mostly uncontested.

VolvoHeretic
VolvoHeretic GRM+ Memberand Dork
4/12/23 3:12 p.m.

In reply to eastsideTim :

Need a No Fly Zone enforced by the USA.

Ian F (Forum Supporter)
Ian F (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
4/12/23 3:31 p.m.
VolvoHeretic said:

In reply to eastsideTim :

Need a No Fly Zone enforced by the USA.

The only chance of that happening is if there is some sort of peace agreement in place.  Even then it'd be a miniscule chance.  Too great of a chance of direct US-Russia shooting and there's no way that ends well for anyone. 

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
4/12/23 4:43 p.m.

I suspect the shortage of AA equipment has more to do with the drone and cruise missiles than Russian aircraft and helicopters. 

I really don't see any return of Russian aircraft over Ukraine except very near to the front lines (which they have been doing the whole time).  I don't think they have flown over the main part of Ukraine since the very start of this.

Noddaz
Noddaz GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
4/12/23 6:28 p.m.
aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
4/12/23 7:04 p.m.

Well, I guess you can return them if you don't use them? So maybe an option for that?  And you still pay for some of the lease if you do return them?  My guess is shipping will be a killer here and return is unlikely to say the least!

Maybe some technicality to avoid saying you are "supplying" them?

That is a very strange way to put it though.

bearmtnmartin (Forum Supporter)
bearmtnmartin (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand UltraDork
4/12/23 8:14 p.m.

In reply to Kreb (Forum Supporter) :

Name a world leader this does not apply to.

DarkMonohue
DarkMonohue GRM+ Memberand Dork
4/12/23 8:32 p.m.
bearmtnmartin (Forum Supporter) said:

Name a world leader this does not apply to.

Those in power are generally those who seek power. Not being an expert on either politics or psychology, I suspect that requires a mindset and a set of priorities that most ordinary people wouldn't be comfortable with. 

AngryCorvair (Forum Supporter)
AngryCorvair (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
4/13/23 10:31 a.m.
aircooled said:

...shipping will be a killer here ...

i LOL'd

frenchyd
frenchyd MegaDork
4/13/23 11:37 a.m.
02Pilot said:

France is in some ways the last Western stronghold of traditional nationalism. There is a broadly-held cultural and political belief that France belongs among the leading nations of the world, one that has been created and maintained by the unique history of the last couple hundred years. Yes, France has suffered major defeats - 1814, 1871, and 1940 - but in every case they have been viewed as victims, of an emperor who took advantage of a failed revolution, of German imperialism, and of fascism, respectively, a view strongly shaped and encouraged by their own propaganda. This has promoted a sort of moral high ground on which French political leaders still stand, looking down on everyone around them.

The major irony, of course, is that they spend a lot of time being afraid that someone is going to knock them off that high ground, and they know they're not strong enough to stand on their own (though they won't admit it). So they form alliances and economic ties, for their own advantage, yes, but also to restrict and control the ambitions and efforts of stronger powers like Germany and the US. In an ideal world, France would love to be the leading power in Europe, a modern iteration of Napoleon's Continental System, but it can't because of the existence of Germany. And it would love to be the world's cultural and linguistic center, but it can't because of the existence of the US. So it has bound itself to both as a means to ensure that it still has a seat at the table, and to thwart efforts of the stronger powers to consolidate their respective positions and further weaken France's influence.

You are aware of the massive debt United States owes France aren't you?
    Our forefathers were inspired by French writers.  French Nobility paid for America's revolutionary war. Not only with money but also with their children's heads as well as their own.   France was fighting the British  at sea. And sent people to America to help fight the British.  

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
4/13/23 11:42 a.m.

Looks like they are close to finding the leaker (probably already have).  Essentially, what appears to be a military contractor, showing off online.  It also looks like the info might be at least a few months old(?)  Ukraine claims any important info is already out of date (not like they would say it wasn't of course)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/12/discord-leaked-documents/

Someones going to be in prison for a long time.

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