aircooled said:
Yeah, it was a very wide spread amount / type of intelligence. Unless he was working on some sort of general world intelligence (in the ANG?!?) it does kind to point that he might have taken more then he was supposed to have access to (which would be a huge issue of course).
It seems like he printed out the Powerpoints and took pictures of those. So he either took pictures in the secured area (seems very unlikely), printed them there (which would be very easy to trace), or snuck the files out (e.g. thumdrive) and printed them at home. He could have sent them out, but that seems super unlikely and also super easy to trace.
From what I have been told, computers in tight-clearance areas have the USB functions disabled in BIOS and with epoxy in the ports, so thumbdrive is unlikely.
As far as tracing is concerned... well, they did make an arrest very quickly, so my assumption is that he aquired them by stupid means.
aircooled said:
Ohhhh Noooooo
Putin cancels Victory parades in Russian regions due to lack of tanks - Atlantic Council.
There will be no parades on May 9 in the Kursk and Belgorod regions, as well as in the Crimea. The official reason is security concerns, as these regions border Ukraine.
But, according to the Atlantic Council, in fact, due to losses on the Russian front, there may simply be a lack of military equipment, which the authorities do not want to admit.
Maybe he needs to come get the T-90 tank from the Louisiana rest-stop..
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/a-captured-russian-tank-from-the-war-in-ukraine-mysteriously-showed-up-at-a-truck-stop-in-louisiana-report-says/ar-AA19S624?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=8f1a1b2c7c534fcda87ddf8d37778f99&ei=25
I would guess it is on the way to some military testing / evaluation / training location. It seems highly unlikely they would allow a private citizen to import one just because the parts would still be valuable to Ukraine.
Someone eventually owning it is of course possible. A guy at my local C&C bought a Leopard I !! (It's sitting in his backyard, somewhere in the San Fernando valley!) And yes, shipping was a killer!
aircooled said:
Some fun stuff:
Hungarian Prime Minister Orban said that the war will stop as soon as Europe and the United States stop spending money for Ukraine
In addition, he made another enchanting statement: he said that Ukraine is a non-existent country in financial terms, directly dependent on the allies.
At the same time, Hungary once again asks for subsidies from European partners.
Ukraine hid plan for future counteroffensive from Pentagon - Associated Press
Yes, Ukraine did not share plans for a future counteroffensive with the United States due to doubts about Washington's ability to keep secrets. Therefore, a leak of classified documents is unlikely to harm Ukraine on the battlefield.
In particular, this week Ukrainian and US officials said that only Kyiv knows some of the battle plans and other operational information.
Ohhhh Noooooo
Putin cancels Victory parades in Russian regions due to lack of tanks - Atlantic Council.
There will be no parades on May 9 in the Kursk and Belgorod regions, as well as in the Crimea. The official reason is security concerns, as these regions border Ukraine.
But, according to the Atlantic Council, in fact, due to losses on the Russian front, there may simply be a lack of military equipment, which the authorities do not want to admit.
Sounds like Hungary's real concern is that money that might have been earmarked for them in the past, is now going to Ukraine.
It looks like the offensive was planned for the 30th. Probably not now, or maybe yes, or maybe not...
US Expects Ukrainian Counteroffensive April 30 - Newsweek
Leaked Pentagon documents say "supplies and support are heading to Ukraine ahead of the Ukrainian offensive scheduled for April 30th." The publication writes that the data on the date of the offensive is based on the interception of telephone conversations and is most likely a "real secret" and not a fake.
Newsweek also cites the following figures: "The total equipment required for 9 brigades is 253 tanks, 381 mechanized vehicles, 480 motorized vehicles and 147 artillery pieces, as well as the supply of 571 US armored HMMWVs."
In reply to Noddaz :
Yup, someone posted a picture of a shipping label on the barrel. 
I saw a picture of Bradley in Ukraine in a green camo pattern today. Having never seen one before Desert Storm, it looked weird seeing one in a color other than tan.
eastsideTim said:
stroker said:
My money is on this kid is going to get hung out to dry and nobody of senior rank is going to face punishment for having allowed him to get access to the documents.
I think it'll depend on how he acquired the documents, and whether there were systemic failures or not. If he had access because he was the IT guy, and gave himself access, then heads should roll because no one else caught it. If he actually had a use for the documents in his day to day work, it may be less likely that higher ups will get burned.
Details haven't been released, but from what I have heard, the way he posted pictures of the documents on a Discord gaming group with little regard to covering his digital tracks, there's a good chance he didn't entirely understand what he was looking at.
Once this blows over, my WAG:
He'll get a light sentence for being an idiot.
A lot of middle-managers will get yelled at and slapped. Whoever was his direct supervisor might get dismissed or demoted.
A lot of money will get spent attempting to prevent this from happening again (although it will, because humans are fallible).
In reply to Ian F (Forum Supporter) :
Apparently he dug papers out of a bin for classified scrap, took them home and scanned them.
So, stupid means.
In reply to Pete. (l33t FS) :
I'd be curious how he did that. I'm sitting in a room with a Iron Mountain sensitive disposal container. It's locked and wouldn't be easily opened without anyone noticing. I would expect Classified documents to be more secure. If they aren't then there is definitely some sort of systemic failure.
Yeah, that makes a bit more sense in how he got the docs and how he got them out. There appears to be no malice involved in his actions, but he of course had to be WELL aware of what he should not be doing, and the penalties involved.
I could potentially see him not getting the maximum, but he did do a LOT of damage even if he did not intend to.
Seems like there should be some serious procedure updates, or maybe following them properly (considering Ian's note).
NOHOME
MegaDork
4/17/23 5:12 p.m.
Could you imagine if there was someone smart enough in the pentagon to have staged this whole "leak" story?
02Pilot
PowerDork
4/18/23 10:15 a.m.
A bit of insight on how the leaked documents may have been acquired in this piece from Slate. It's still a pretty shocking lapse in security, even with a reasonable explanation of how it may have happened.
In reply to NOHOME :
In theory, it's possible. However, in practice such a scheme would require leaving some sort of trail that would eventually be discovered and thus risky. The smart people in the Pentagon tend to be very risk-adverse.
stroker
PowerDork
4/18/23 1:35 p.m.
volvoclearinghouse said:
Interesting bit of news about Russians oil exports:
https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/14/energy/russia-oil-exports-iea-report/index.html
I'd be interested to see how they're shipping that volume...
stroker said:
volvoclearinghouse said:
Interesting bit of news about Russians oil exports:
https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/14/energy/russia-oil-exports-iea-report/index.html
I'd be interested to see how they're shipping that volume...
Ship to another OPEC nation, offload it, then ship it as that nation's oil?
Opti
SuperDork
4/18/23 2:47 p.m.
In reply to stroker :
Saudia Arabia is buying some and reselling it or "using it internally to free up their own supply for exports"
India imports a bunch of it.
China boosted imports.
The sanctions haven't done much. Some reports are that output has actually increased since the invasion.
Lots of our allies have tried to "move away" from fossil fuels, as in the don't want to produce it in house instead import it and pretend they are actually doing something, which means they can't actually cut an adversary off in a meaningful way.
All it means is Russia is able to spread it influence through economic means.
They also lost a lot of economic influence. E.g Europe and especially Germany.
There are other sanctions besides the oil/gas ones also. Those seem to be a bit more effective (although eventually they will likely find, maybe far less beneficial, alternatives).
(note: not really super knowledgeable on all the sanctions)
stroker
PowerDork
4/18/23 3:07 p.m.
Opti said:
In reply to stroker :
Saudia Arabia is buying some and reselling it or "using it internally to free up their own supply for exports"
India imports a bunch of it.
China boosted imports.
The sanctions haven't done much. Some reports are that output has actually increased since the invasion.
Lots of our allies have tried to "move away" from fossil fuels, as in the don't want to produce it in house instead import it and pretend they are actually doing something, which means they can't actually cut an adversary off in a meaningful way.
All it means is Russia is able to spread it influence through economic means.
The reason I'm asking is from following Zeihan's videos. I was under the impression it was really, really difficult to insure Russian shipping right now and so maybe they're using foreign flag tankers, but that leaves the question of where they're being loaded...
Opti
SuperDork
4/18/23 3:20 p.m.
In reply to aircooled :
They have lost some economic influence with some of our allies. I haven't followed the German sanction closely in the last 5 or 6 months but I remember last year Germany said they wouldn't be able to fully be off Russian energy for another year or two.
They are finding additional influence among countries adversarial to the United States or the west and atleast one of our allies, India.
The sanctions are largely just signaling. In the intricate web that is global trade their are too many avenues to circumvent sanctions and they are too lucrative, for sanctions to actually be effective. A good example would be the relatively stable value of the ruble and growing exports in a time when largely every western country has imposed sanctions on Russia.
Opti
SuperDork
4/18/23 3:25 p.m.
In reply to stroker :
I'm sure it's not as easy as it used to be, and under normal pricing it may not make economical sense but if your getting it at a discount (as Saudi Arabia is saying they are), and you have large resources and reach (like Saudi Arabia) it could easily make economic sense, even calculating for potential losses.
The illegal drug trade makes economic sense to its participants even given the huge hurdles stacked against it.
Forgive me if this is a repeat. There is some interesting discussion here (starting at the 27:51 mark) about the difference between oil exports and revenue. They're not the same thing, and economic health apparently doesn't have a linear relationship with export volume.
The short version is that some aren't worried about high volume of oil being exported considering it's being sold at a deep discount and not bringing in the revenue it would if sanctions were not in place. Value is leaving the country.
DarkMonohue said:
The short version is that some aren't worried about high volume of oil being exported considering it's being sold at a deep discount and not bringing in the revenue it would if sanctions were not in place. Value is leaving the country.
Putin's been forced to accept ~$60/barrel for petroleum for several months, now that the only nations whom are willing to divert from sanctions whom can manufacture the crude- mostly India and China- know what position he's in and are more than willing to bend him over backwards. They've been evading sanctions by shutting off transponders, docking in "grey" ports, offloading and replacing the crude with other things to make it look like a fueling drop off... they do lots of things to dodge sanctions, but they're a nation with an economy smaller than New York that's completely reliant on extraction. That's literally you're lifeblood being cut out from under you, which is not good.
Point is, the point it's going to have won't be visible until Putin can no longer stem the bleeding of funds through other means, and that bleeding is obvious with how big their deficit is growing per quarter- The IEA says they've lost $2.7 billion since January alone and they're running out of gold and foreign currency so claiming the sanctions "failed" isn't seeing the forest from the trees. These things take time, much like how the US kept Germany from getting crucial resources like tungsten in World war 2.
Opti said:
The leaks looked considerably more grim for Ukraine that the current narrative would have you believe.
Worst they've said was that Ukraine's losses were higher than what they claim, but still haven't yet reached a quarter of Russia's. Ukraine also hasn't changed positions on anything and everything seems to still be gearing up for an offensive, so you're gonna have to show proof.
