In reply to 02Pilot :
I don't really see how this is even on a similar level as, let alone worse than, Orban continuing to block Sweden from entering NATO.
It's not like this is being done punitively after the Sweden situation has been resolved. This is just as reversible as Orban's blocking of Sweden, so it seems more to me like just another bargaining chip in the only diplomatic language (tit-for-tat) that some world 'leaders' know.
Video released of what is reported to be Russian security forces (top) shooting retreating Russian soldiers (bottom).
The Russians have been apparently trying to get those destroyed Leopards and Bradley's and did hold the ground at one point. The Ukranian's say they now have the area and will recover them.
Reports of Ukrainian forces in Nova Khahovka the town next to the dam that collapsed. Invasion, or just a raid?
In reply to Driven5 :
If it were a deliberate and considered act of policy, I might be inclined to agree. As it was, a random congressman pushed it through, with no suggestion that it was done for bargaining purposes. If it can be used to twist Orban's arm on Sweden, that's great, but that's clearly not the intent.
Russian soldiers being rescued by Ukrainian soldiers are shot at by other Russian soldiers.
WTF. Really, just WTF.
Russians soldiers were caught up in the flooding by the blown up dam. Ukrainians go out to rescue them and get shot at by other Russians.
02Pilot said:VolvoHeretic said:In reply to 02Pilot
It's all about the drama to make them look relevant. Same reason congress has its dept limit drama every couple of years when everybody knows what the outcome will be.
I tend to agree that's all intended to be about US domestic optics, but the good congressman is awfully optimistic if he thinks this is going to win him points with, well, anyone. On the other hand, it has the potential to cause lasting diplomatic complications for the US and NATO.
Not to be that guy (but Im going to be that guy), Risch is a Senator. It doesnt take away from your point, but its worth noting that a Senator has a degree of greater pull and influence than a congressman.
In reply to 02Pilot :
If we're going to subjectively speculate on the diplomatic objectives and intentions of his actions, I'm not sure that I would call the chairman of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations just a 'random congressman'. It sounds like this action was taken in the normal course of performing the roles and responsibilities of his position, and likely not decided upon in a vacuum... As opposed the characterization of his actions being more akin to someone making a show of going rogue and unilaterally hijacking the passage of Pentagon or DOJ nomination in an act of political theater.
Well, if we want to pick nits, the term "congressman" applies to both Senators and Representatives, as all are members of Congress. Risch is not the Chairman of the SFRC, but the Ranking Member.
None of which alters my point at all. While his position on the SFRC certainly adds additional weight to his statement, I don't see how it serves any useful purpose vis a vis the US relationship with Hungary. That being the case, I can only conclude that the primary purpose is domestic political gain, not achieving diplomatic advantage.
I guess that I hope it is blackmail and Sweden gets into NATO, Hungary gets their missiles, not sure what Turkey wants that we can squeeze them for.
In reply to 02Pilot :
The confrontation associated with applying any type of meaningful diplomatic pressure or repercussions always comes with risks. If we're demonstrably that much more concerned vis a vis our relationship with them, than they are about their relationship with us, then they have already achieved diplomatic advantage over us.
I am curious though, what alternative 'diplomatic price for his obstructionism' you suggest we apply that would have any tangible benefit for Sweden but does not also risk our so-called 'relationship' with Orban? He's not the type of person who will be endeared to you just because you already gave him what he wanted, nor is he likely to be swayed by a strongly worded letter.
Maybe it's all moot though, since Hungary claims they were no longer interested in them anyway. LOL
In reply to Driven5 :
I have no idea, hopefully smarter people do know. It looks like we are in the good cop, bad cop phase and Senator Risch is the bad cop?
I did not realize this map showed the fortifications. Here is a semi-current map of the southern front (might not show latest advances).
As you can see, the Ukrainians have not yet hit significant prepared ground (mostly trenches) anywhere except maybe in the western portion. You can also see a more accurate depiction of where the fortification are. Tokmut is the larger circle to the lower left. The most recent push appears to be directly north of there.
Reports are the Russians finally ran the Freedom Legion out of the Russian territory to the north. Also... as per standard procedure, they have reportedly looted the areas they took... which are Russian villages... Russia..... Hey, at least they are consistent!
Not sure how accurate this is (these are the long range missiles):
The draft defense budget for 2024, prepared by the US House of Representatives, for the first time provides funding for the supply of long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine.
One of the destroyed Bradley's that has been recovered and is being repaired. As noted previously, the important aspect here is that the crew survived.
I realize that it's very early to say, but Ukraine doesn't seem to be setting the world on fire with this counteroffensive. Are we moving towards a stalemate? That'd probably be fine with Russia at this point.
Hard to say. I seems like the Ukrainians have not made any major pushes or commitments and seem to be poking around. Outside observers (e.g. US military people) seem to believe they have the men and material to do what they want to do. If they were fully committed and getting no where I would expect a LOT more info on Ukrainians losses from Russia (who will clearly show anything they can).
The general impression is that they are trying to keep Russia off balance and guessing. If they find something they can exploit, I am sure they will.
Realistically, the Ukrainians don't really want to move too fast. The only real reason they are doing anything now is to appease the West who is supporting them. Later this year, they will be receiving M1 Abrams and F16 (pilots who are nearing completion of training).
One of the important questions is what is the moral like on both sides. The Russians have lost their general in charge, the Chechnyan generals second in command is either dead or injured. The slow grinding (only attacking where they are confident to make gains) may have a negative effect on the Russian moral. Almost like they are playing with them while they wait for the hammer to fall.
Latest rumor is that the bulk of the Ukrainian army seems to be assembling in the area directly north of Tokmut (which has clearly been a focus of long range attacks recently). As noted many times, where most of these armies are is generally not a secret anymore (with modern technology). A rapid strike (if possible with all the defenses) to Tokmut would be devastating to the Russians. Once past Tokmut, the defensive lines are minimal.
In reply to Driven5 :
This doesn't necessarily relate to the question of Sweden, at least not in the short term. It's just a matter of throwing away leverage for no particular benefit. Had the release of HIMARS been made contingent on something, rather than flatly denied, I would see the point, but as it stands the US gains nothing.
In reply to Kreb (Forum Supporter) :
To add onto aircooled's comment- Ukraine is trying to give Russia 2 bad options, and they largely revolve around rapid reaction style forces in Russia's backline in response to an attack by Ukraine.
This is further compounded by the benefits of Storm Shadow allowing for deep artillery strikes, HIMARS now being within range of the Crimean sea, Crimea's new lack of fresh water, and Ukraine still having a force ready in reserve for option 2. On Russia's side, they still largely have artillery superiority and continue massed terror missile strikes against major population areas, which forces Ukraine to expend resources protecting against Kinzhal missiles there instead of having missile defense closer to the front.
In reply to 02Pilot :
This is what the Senator himself had to say about it:
"Given promises that were made to me and others last year that this vote would be done, and the fact that it is now June and still not done, I decided that the sale of new U.S. military equipment to Hungary will be on hold,"
"Hungary should take the actions necessary to allow Sweden into the alliance, and soon,"
So apparently not flatly denied, and includes contingent leverage for a particular benefit.
This post has received too many downvotes to be displayed.
Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:I realize that it's very early to say, but Ukraine doesn't seem to be setting the world on fire with this counteroffensive. Are we moving towards a stalemate? That'd probably be fine with Russia at this point.
Maybe that's the plan.
In reply to Driven5 :
Fair enough. I still contend that a public demonstration like this, particularly over a relatively minor concern, is unlikely to be helpful in compelling Hungary to act as the US wishes, but at least there seems to be some linkage.
Kaboom?
Yes Rico, kaboom.
Eyewitnesses report that the ammunition detonation in the depot lasted several hours.
Speaking of Hungary, Russia sent 11 captured prisoners of war over there, but that could be because they were from Hungary at some point.
Ukraine has likely taken P'yatykhatky.
Ukrainian advances north of Avdiivka.
Interview from Meduza with surrendered Russians who described blocking "Storm Z" troops. So far it seems that the rumors and videos of "Storm Z" aren't just individual events, but actual demands by Russian authority.
You may have heard about this, but Russia sent a VIBED (Vehicular Based Explosive Device) at the Ukrainians near the lines in Marinka, Donetsk. They seem to have filled a T-54 with 6 tons of explosives, equipped it with a drone system, and sent it lumbering into Ukranian lines only for it to strike a mine, get immobilized, then detonate from an RPG. Video here, the shockwave is insane. I really, REALLY hope the nearby Ukrainian soldiers are okay because that shockwave would be hard to go through.
Holy crap. Yeah, that's brutal. I can't help but think that the Ukraine forces took damage from that one.
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