History in the Making: Russian Invasion

Apparently Putler's still been working on his Project Pluto/SLAM type missile and says it has now been tested successfully

https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/05/europe/putin-nuclear-powered-strategic-missile-intl/index.html

Should be possible for other countries to verify by the radioactive waste trail it would leave...

I guess there might be a bit of a translation issue, but this is... wow.

Oct 5 (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin on Thursday reiterated his position that Russia did not start the war in Ukraine but launched what it calls a "special military operation" to try to stop it.

In his yearly speech to the Valdai Discussion Club, being held in Sochi, Putin said Russia, the world's largest country by area, had no need to take territory from Ukraine.

He said the conflict was not therefore imperial or territorial but about the global order, and that the West, which had lost its hegemonic power and always needed an enemy, had lost touch with reality.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-repeats-assertion-that-russia-did-not-start-war-ukraine-2023-10-05/?utm_source=reddit.com

In reply to aircooled :

Wow, indeed.

Another excellent article from The National Interest calling out the lack of objective analysis and the dangers it poses: Hubris' Downfall: The Hard Road Ahead for the Russia-Ukraine War.

Case closed:

Putin offered a bizarre explanation for Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s death during a press conference at the Valdai Discussion Club on October 5 to deflect blame from the Kremlin. Putin stated that the Russian Investigative Committee Head Alexander Bastrykin informed him that the investigation found grenade fragments in the bodies of victims onboard Prigozhin’s plane, suggesting that grenades detonated inside the aircraft.[6] The investigative committee has reported publicly only that all 10 people aboard the plane died.[7] Putin also emphasized that the investigation ruled out external factors that may have caused the plane crash and implied that the plane crash victims may have been using alcohol or drugs onboard that could have led to the negligent handling of grenades (that were presumably on board for some unexplained reason). Putin claimed that, while the investigation did not test the bodies for alcohol and narcotics, the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) uncovered five kilograms of cocaine during their investigation into Wagner – likely referring to FSB’s televised raids into Prigozhin’s mansion in June and July 2023. Putin added that in his opinion the investigation needs to test the bodies for substances. Putin’s bizarre explanation of the plane crash is likely an attempt to blame Prigozhin for his own and his comrades’ deaths and further disgrace him among his remaining supporters.

It's always drunken grenade juggling.

Per pro Ukrainian site https://mil.in.ua/en/

New details of the downing of the Russian Su-35 become know

The name of the alleged pilot of the Russian Su-35 fighter jet that had been shot down as a result of friendly fire in the Zaporizhzhia region has been posted online.

Militarnyi reports about this.

On October 5, a statement was posted online about the burial of Russian pilot and head of the Pilot Training Center, 38-year-old Major Alexey Belichenko.

The report states that he died under unknown circumstances on September 29, the day a Russian fighter jet was shot down in the sky over the occupied Zaporizhzhia region.

A link to a 2012 news story attached to the recording indicates that Belychenko was piloting a Su-27SM fighter jet at the time.

I was thinking back to my old wargaming days.  I was trying to imagine how Jim Dunnigan at SPI would design a tabletop game for the Ukraine war.   The victory/logistics criteria would drive a guy nuts...

stroker said:

I was thinking back to my old wargaming days.  I was trying to imagine how Jim Dunnigan at SPI would design a tabletop game for the Ukraine war.   The victory/logistics criteria would drive a guy nuts...

I met and spoke with Jim a few times over the years - fascinating guy, and not without opinions nor a willingness to express them.

There are some wargames out there that do a pretty good job of dealing with really complex situations, though none yet for Ukraine, of course. Tabletop games invariably have to limit their scope, but they can bring out some real insight if well-executed. Of course, I would argue that anyone's who's a veteran of Avalon Hill's Diplomacy already has a huge leg up on understanding how the world actually works (it was commended by Henry Kissinger and JFK, among other notables).

Yeah, the the show Big Bang Theory did a bit on a game called Campaign for North Africa.  Apparently it HEAVILY involves the logistics of the campaign, which of course is entirely realistic, just wildly complex and can take obscene amounts of time to play out.  As noted previously, many wars and campaigns are very heavily influenced by logistics, especially if they continue for any period of time.

On that note, I was watching something on the production of artillery shells (which of course is a big deal in this thing), which could have a huge effect on Ukraine if the US drops out, because Russia clearly has a reasonably good capability to produce shells (artillery is kind of their thing).  It was kind of interesting that they noted that the US only has the capability to produce some smaller number (maybe 20,000? I don't remember) of shells a month. This really should not be surprising, since there is basically zero reason for the US to producing a large number of shells when not in a war, I mean, how many would we be using? 

Being able to ramp up production seems like a good plan though, although, the US is no where near as artillery happy as the Russian, we are more air power based.  Again, this very much reflects what was the case in WWII also.

In reply to aircooled :

I played and ran some pretty hardcore wargames, but I never even considered attempting CNA. Per BoardGameGeek:

This is a wargame like no other. While the map area (5 full size maps) has been repeated in other North Africa games, the game is detailed to a degree no other game has come close to. If using the full rules you keep track of every individual plane and pilot in the three year campaign. Each counter on the board representing a ground unit is composed of many units which are kept track of on logs. Supplies are kept track of and dispersed in a very detailed manner.

From the rulebook we read how to run a game. "CNA is a logistically-oriented game, and its play requires not only a lot of attention to logistics, but, if you will, a logistically sound methodology." It is suggested that you have 5 persons per side with the following duties.

Commander-in-Chief: responsible for strategic decisions and to settle intra-team disputes.

Logistics Commander: In charge of all supplies. Accepts supply requisitions from the others and keeps all informed of supply shortages. Is in charge of supply dumps, Third line trucks and some second line trucks and is in charge of Naval convoys.

Rear Area Commander: Gets the supplies to the front. In charge of security, reserves, prisoners and construction.

Air Commander: In charge of all planes and pilots. Is responsible for planning air missions and deployment of air bases.

Front-line Commander: Executes all attacks and troop movements in the front line. Helps with coordinating defensive efforts.

Playing time with 10 players is listed at 1200 hours.

02Pilot said:

....Playing time with 10 players is listed at 1200 hours.....

S0, you could do that.  Or you could build this (with substantial cost of course).  And this is man hours, it would be 10 times less with 10 people(!):

...The most modern matched-hole RV-14/14A kit might take about 1000-1300 hours....

https://www.vansaircraft.com/time-to-build/

In reply to 02Pilot :

1200 hours! Holy crap! That's full time job for 7 months. 

In reply to z31maniac :

That's a very quick build kit.

I read every downvoted reply. Call me curious I guess.

I also have read responses referencing reports about Zelenskyy attempting to root out corruption amidst this (deadly and expensive) war. When the subsequent response is "they're corrupt".. it earns a downward thumb.

Speaking of trolls.... it looks like Putler is curious what the public thinks, so he is doing a survey.  Does he really want an answer, or just stirring s$it?  I wonder if he actually believes the Russian army is even remotely capable of a large offensive at this point.

Evidence that Russian President Vladimir Putin is in trouble grows. He imposed an October deadline on his generals to stop Ukraine’s counteroffensive and to invade a large city, and a new poll is quietly underway in Russia to test the waters concerning the March 2024 presidential election.

It’s hard to believe, in a country without free elections or free speech, that Putin is interested in probing public opinion, but the state-owned Russian Public Opinion Research Center is doing just that in an unusually candid way. Russians are being asked to comment on whether a Putin resignation would “improve, worsen or not change the situation” and also if “someone replace him as president and if so, who exactly?”........

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4240239-putin-panics/

In reply to aircooled :

Could be a few things other than the obvious, or the reasons given in the piece. Putin could feel that he is being deliberately kept out of touch with popular opinion by his advisors; he could want to gauge the popular mood to determine how many martial law restrictions to impose; or he could be trying to formulate conditions for peace talks and wanting to get a sense of how they may be received (he can't ask directly, but the second question offers some sense of the tilt of the public attitude toward the war).

In recent days I've read about the Azerbaijan war and the Hamas v Israel war, and it's concerning. Like the ongoing war in Ukraine is spinning off, destabilizing governments while making others more opportunistic. I certainly hope that this trend does not continue. 

In reply to Kreb (Forum Supporter) :

The Azerbaijan situation was 100% taking advantage of the fact that Russia was unlikely to move to protect Armenia as it has in the past.

The ongoing Israel situation has nothing to do with it. My reading is that Hamas saw the writing on the wall with the Israel-Saudi deal that's been in the works for months - that Hamas and other Palestinian groups were going to be left out in the cold - and decided to do the only thing they could to try to stop it, probably with the encouragement of Iran, which certainly isn't happy about the deal either. Hamas is hoping that Israel will cause enough destruction and casualties in Gaza to make the Saudis think twice, or at least slow the process down by making it politically difficult for Saudi Arabia to keep moving toward Israel until things calm down.

aircooled said:

Speaking of trolls.... it looks like Putler is curious what the public thinks, so he is doing a survey.  Does he really want an answer, or just stirring s$it?  I wonder if he actually believes the Russian army is even remotely capable of a large offensive at this point.

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4240239-putin-panics/

But only in Russia, you have the answers to your survey before you even post it.

In reply to Noddaz :

Unless, of course, you are taking a poll to save effort on figuring out who needs to go to prison or to kill themselves to escape all the stress.

I'm sure this will find considerable disagreement here, but I think it's worth watching for one simple reason: Mearsheimer gave this talk in 2015 - eight years ago - and it's fascinating to see how his assessment of the situation then looks in light of recent events.

In reply to Noddaz :

This of course assumes not only the people being polled will answer honestly but that the results will be relayed to Putin correctly.  It seem pretty clear he has been given wildly optimistic assessments of the Russian military's capabilities.