Reuter's article with interviews with Storm-Z units. Graphic.
One fighter, with a conviction for theft who was recruited from prison, said all but 15 of the 120 men in his unit embedded with the 237th regiment were killed or wounded in fighting near Bakhmut in June.
"On the frontline, where we've been, we did not get deliveries of ammunition. We did not get water or food. The injured were not taken away: still now the dead are rotting," said a fighter in the video, whom Reuters was unable to identify.
After the video was published, military police officers beat up the two fighters, and others in their squad, as punishment for their revolt, the two relatives said. Since then, they said the two fighters had told them that conditions had improved but they did not know when the men would be allowed to quit the military.
aircooled said:
Speaking of trolls.... it looks like Putler is curious what the public thinks, so he is doing a survey. Does he really want an answer, or just stirring s$it? I wonder if he actually believes the Russian army is even remotely capable of a large offensive at this point.
Evidence that Russian President Vladimir Putin is in trouble grows. He imposed an October deadline on his generals to stop Ukraine’s counteroffensive and to invade a large city, and a new poll is quietly underway in Russia to test the waters concerning the March 2024 presidential election.
It’s hard to believe, in a country without free elections or free speech, that Putin is interested in probing public opinion, but the state-owned Russian Public Opinion Research Center is doing just that in an unusually candid way. Russians are being asked to comment on whether a Putin resignation would “improve, worsen or not change the situation” and also if “someone replace him as president and if so, who exactly?”........
https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4240239-putin-panics/
I can't remember the official term so I'll do some digging to find it, but there's a berkeleyed-up reasoning for fascists to essentially "Ratify" or "double-proove" their control over a populace; Hitler did it after the Beer Hall Putsch asking a national vote if they supported him, in that card where it had "ya" or "nein" with the "nein" being a far smaller circle that some voters were physically prevented from even checking.
As I am sure most are aware, Hamas has managed to bring some Bucha level terror and horror to some Isrealis. Apparently some very horrible videos out there. They are very much targeting civilians, including driving around in civilian areas shooting people on the street, kidnapping people, and of course rockets shot randomly into cities (likely hundreds killed, thousands injured). I am sure some will revel in this (obviously I don't mean here).
The motivations for this are likely very twisted (beyond just terrorizing Isrealis). Obviously they will expect Isreali retaliation, and they probably kind of want that, it's just part of the machine that keeps these things going. It's of a way of life for Hamas now, it's their "job" creating motivations for their actions. You of course could go all conspiracy on this and say the Isrealis set this up, or allwed it, to justify exterminating Palestinians.
Seems like the general world view on this is not very supportive of Hamas, which has not always been the case. As far as what Isreal does in return, we will see.
So.... how is this related to Ukraine? Well.... Russia has thoughts.
It's a curious message. The West needs to keep it's nose out of other people business, except they are to blame for not putting there nose into the Middle East.... Uhm.... OK.
-------
The Kremlin is already and will likely continue to exploit the Hamas attacks in Israel to advance several information operations intended to reduce US and Western support and attention to Ukraine. The Kremlin amplified several information operations following Hamas attacks in Israel on October 7, primarily blaming the West for neglecting conflicts in the Middle East in favor of supporting Ukraine and claiming the international community will cease to pay attention to Ukraine by portraying attention to the Middle East or alternatively Ukraine as a zero-sum comparison. Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev claimed the United States and its allies should have been “busy with” working on “Palestinian-Israeli settlement” rather than “interfering” with Russia and providing Ukraine with military aid.[1] The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) accused the West of blocking efforts by a necessary “quartet” of Russia, the US, the European Union, and the United Nations, leading to an escalation in violence, implicitly blaming the West for the current fighting.[2] Prominent Russian propagandist Sergei Mardan directly stated that Russia will benefit from the escalation as the world “will take its mind off Ukraine for a while and get busy once again putting out the eternal fire in the Middle East.”[3] These Kremlin narratives target Western audiences to drive a wedge in military support for Ukraine, seek to demoralize Ukrainian society by claiming Ukraine will lose international support, and intend to reassure Russian domestic audiences that the international society will ignore Ukraine’s war effort.
02Pilot said:
I'm sure this will find considerable disagreement here, but I think it's worth watching for one simple reason: Mearsheimer gave this talk in 2015 - eight years ago - and it's fascinating to see how his assessment of the situation then looks in light of recent events.
What stands out to me on this one is something discussed in the early pages of this thread. Putin does not want Ukraine to be part of Russia. If he can have a puppet government, great for him. The next best thing for Putin is a wrecked Ukraine - no infrastructure, no power, no water, no hospitals, no schools.
Interesting article published today, it seems that a big enough hiccup in the supply of foreign aid to Ukraine (especially in the form of artillery shells) could create a window of opportunity for a quick Russian victory, and that's what Putin's hoping for...so it may only look like Russia's stuck on the losing side of a war with months or years to go, until Ukraine's war machine sucks some air from the fuel tank:
https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/08/europe/analysis-putin-ukraine-race-against-time-intl-hnk/index.html
As noted, the US and Europe really don't have a large artillery shell production base. Russian is likely better positioned to ramp up, which means an ability for them to fire more shells may be an eventuality. As may be obvious by now, artillery is a prime element of the battles so far. Drones (even small commercial style) may turn out to be a more effective, and cheaper alternative though.
Also of note is that large numbers of rail cars have been seen traveling out of North Korea, most likely to Russia, most likely loaded with a lot of artillery shells. These could likely show up on the battlefield in a few weeks(?) The Ukrainians have been doing a good job taking out artillery pieces, but the Russians do have a lot.
Another development is that Russia appears to be building a new rail line from Russia to the Zaporizhzhia area (southern Ukraine). This may be because of a lack of confidence that the Kerch bridge will be of use in the future.
02Pilot
PowerDork
10/9/23 8:02 a.m.
matthewmcl said:
02Pilot said:
I'm sure this will find considerable disagreement here, but I think it's worth watching for one simple reason: Mearsheimer gave this talk in 2015 - eight years ago - and it's fascinating to see how his assessment of the situation then looks in light of recent events.
What stands out to me on this one is something discussed in the early pages of this thread. Putin does not want Ukraine to be part of Russia. If he can have a puppet government, great for him. The next best thing for Putin is a wrecked Ukraine - no infrastructure, no power, no water, no hospitals, no schools.
It's pretty standard for the relationship between Great Powers and their neighbors. Ideally, your neighbors are weak and friendly, but if not, the descending order of preference is weak and hostile, strong and friendly (nothing is forever), and at the bottom of the list strong and hostile. A Great Power may want strong allies, but would prefer them at a distance - safer that way.
Opti
SuperDork
10/9/23 9:58 a.m.
02Pilot said:
It's pretty standard for the relationship between Great Powers and their neighbors. Ideally, your neighbors are weak and friendly, but if not, the descending order of preference is weak and hostile, strong and friendly (nothing is forever), and at the bottom of the list strong and hostile. A Great Power may want strong allies, but would prefer them at a distance - safer that way.
That's interesting and insightful. Makes perfect sense, but never thought to actually try to order it like that.
Yeah, that is an interesting and useful way to look at it.
Some more tie ins with the situation in Israel:
- I think it's pretty well confirmed at this point, the Russian ally Iran was very much involved in the planning and of course funding of the attack (they have of course been doing this for a while). There is actually video of Hamas leaders thanking Iran for their help.
- Wagner apparently was involved in training of Hamas fighters.
- Western weapons, capture in Ukraine by the Russian, where transferred to Hamas.
The attack is also almost exactly 50 years after the attacks that started the Yon Kippur War, which was essentially (one of) the Arab (Egypt and Jordans) attempts to wipe out Israel (spoiler: it didn't go well for the Arabs). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yom_Kippur_War
In reply to aircooled :
There is also the theory some of that US hardware was from Afghanistan via the Taliban. I am not certain, but it sucks l seeing US made arms used like this.
I definitely don't agree with the decision to leave these arms behind. They should always be recovered or destroyed.
I suspect that is likely the case also. There was a LOT left behind.
It was of course supposed to supply the Afghan army, but they folded very quickly. Amazingly bad judgment. I would really like to know more about what actually went on, but that likely will have to wait for the perspective that sometimes only time can supply (and likely some of the powerful decision makers to fade into history also)
Some updates. No significant news from the Robotyne area, but in supposed reaction to their concerns there, the Russians are trying to distract the Ukraine by attacking on the Eastern front area of Avdiivka. Video of columns of Russian vehicles have been shown, which normally results in large Russian vehicle losses.
----
Ongoing localized Russian offensive operations near Avdiivka likely demonstrate the ability of Russian forces to learn and apply tactical battlefield lessons in Ukraine. Russian forces launched localized attacks towards Avdiivka after intensive artillery preparation of the battlefield in the early hours of October 10, and geolocated footage from October 10 and 11 confirms that Russian troops advanced southwest of Avdiivka near Sieverne and northwest of Avdiivka near Stepove and Krasnohorivka.[1] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that a grouping of up to three Russian battalions with tank and armored vehicle support intensified offensive operations near Avdiivka.[2] Ukrainian General Staff Spokesperson Andrii Kovavlev clarified that these battalions are part of three motorized rifle brigades of the Southern Military District’s 8th Combined Arms Army.[3]
Russian sources celebrated Russian advances in this area and outlined several adaptations that suggest that Russian forces are applying lessons learned from operations in southern Ukraine to other sectors of the front.[4] A Russian artillery battalion commander who is reportedly fighting in the area claimed that Russian forces are paying significant attention to counterbattery combat.[5] Another source who also claimed to be fighting in the area reported that Russian forces are using electronic warfare (EW) systems, conducting sound artillery preparation of the battlefield, and are demonstrating “clear interaction” between command headquarters, assault groups, aerial reconnaissance, and artillery elements.[6] The milblogger noted that Russian forces are not employing human wave-style “meat” assaults, and several Russian sources amplified footage of Russian armored vehicles leading a breakthrough along roadways towards Ukrainian positions, followed by infantry columns.[7]
These tactical-level adaptations and successes, however, are unlikely to translate into wider operational and strategic gains for Russian forces. Geolocated footage shows that Russian gains around Avdiivka are concentrated to the southwest of Avdiivka, and Russian forces have not completed an operational encirclement of the settlement and will likely struggle to do so if that is their intent. Avdiivka is also a notoriously well-fortified and defended Ukrainian stronghold, which will likely complicate Russian forces’ ability to closely approach or fully capture the settlement. Russian forces additionally already control segments of the critical N20 Donetsk City-Kostyantynivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk highway and other routes that run near Avdiivka, so the hypothetical capture of Avdiivka will not open new routes of advance to the rest of Donetsk Oblast. As ISW previously assessed, Russian forces likely intend attacks in the Avdiivka area to fix Ukrainian forces and prevent them from redeploying to other areas of the front. However, Ukrainian officials have already identified the Avdiivka push as a Russian fixing operation, and they are unlikely to unduly commit Ukrainian manpower to this axis.[11]
The attack from Russia in Avdiivka seems to still be ongoing, but largely stalled. Ukrainian Twitter is in good spirits with some of their estimates that Russians gained 400-600 meters of land, but at heavy losses. Here's a thread from Tatarigami on twitter about it, (original link) where they claim that they've seen at least 36 vehicle losses so far- yet other counters like Jakub here are going as high as potentially 71. I've seen other independent counters also going into the 70s as well using multiple camera angels from drones along with satellite and anti-tank missile footage. This video from NOELReports shows at least 21 all in a line by my count, which would support that high claim.
If only Ukraine had air superiority, then Russia couldn't even consider an attack like this.
On top of the possible sabotage of the Baltic-connector gas line on Tuesday there apparently was a rash of bomb threats against Estonian schools and kindergartens. I decided to look into it a little more, and it's being reported that Estonian police believe its spam more an actual threats, but since there's an actual chance (and purpose) that Russia attacked this line I thought it would be prudent to post this. The same thing, and same response, also happened in Latvia.
---
Also as an aside- If you have a link but get stopped by a demand for cookies or a paywall, Try using 12 foot tall ladder here to get around it. They have an excellent message too.
A bit of an update. It looks like the Russian attack on Avdiivka (eastern front) is now paused. As can be seen in the map pic below Avdiivka is semi-surrounded (which it has been for a while), but do note the darker area on the right side, that appears to be the original, pre-invasion front line. Ukraine and Russia have been fighting along that line for a few years, which means Avdiivka has been well fortified for quite a while.
The Russian may have gotten a small amount of territory, but they went back to the old school tactic a marching in in armored columns... in daylight... which are spotted by drone... and the armor get vaporized by drones, guided artillery etc. It is expected the Russian will show very high vehicle looses... yet again.
Why in daylight? Well, as noted previously, the Russians have far less night vision equipment than the Ukrainians have with their Western equipment.
This is guessed to be an attempt for some sort of "win" for Putler before is entirely free and open election that will be coming.
The Ukrainians have been expanding the pocket around Robtyne, but no large gains or big changes.
Also a bit of an update for "the other thing", since the other source got shut down (not surprising considering the potential topics).
Israel is still paused waiting to move in. Some rescue operations are rumored to have been at least attempted. Water has been re-turned on in southern Gaza (which seems like a good idea to encourage movement).
Egypt is blocking aid(!) going into Gaza as well as blocking civilians coming out, saying their excuse is "Israeli airstrikes", which makes ZERO sense. It's rumored Egypt is looking/waiting for some sort of payday here.
HAMAS is apparently taking car keys away from civilians (AKA future martyrs) and "encouraging" them to stay in their houses. Israel is claimed to have struck an evacuation convoy heading south (which makes zero sense). Video of the attack seems to point heavily that it was an IUD, yet the news seems to still report it as an Israeli attack. It's almost like the news does not want to admit what HAMAS is capable of (even with what they just did!). There is a video: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12631081/Shocking-moment-convoy-cars-fleeing-Gaza-Strip-rocked-explosion-safe-route-north-ahead-anticipated-Israeli-ground-invasion.html
Here are some pics from the video. I believe this is for the second attack on evacuees (the first one seemed to be in a more built up area). I am not explosives expert, but this is absolutely not a 1000lb JDAM (which is most of what Israel seems to drop) and does not look like an artillery round (note the debris and smoke distribution, very horizontal, in the first shot):
In reply to aircooled :
Just because a JDAM wasn't used doesn't mean it wasn't Izzy. Especially, when they're amazing at improvised explosives. Depending on who you ask, Hummus and Izzy are both capable and known for of such attacks, and neither answer is wrong. The media coverage on this whole situation is very biased as a whole. Extreme biased towards both sides depending on the source. Where is the middle of the road coverage and criticism? Paleo's need as much aid as the Cranes were getting but it seems all the companies and folks with big platforms are afraid to advocate for the middle brown people. You can support them without claiming support for Hummus.
I am worried about the Izzy people aswell. I've worked with them when I was there in August. One in particular was ready to move back to NYC and be with her husband after coming to Izzy for some work. It was getting too HOT for her there, even in her line of work. They're generally welcoming folks if you don't fit a certain demographic. Very vigilant and always ready to do whatever.
Wrong thread for this discussion, but the other one was locked, so oh well. While Israel has been known to use IEDs and other methods to take care of some of their more problematic enemies (Iranian nuclear scientists), what would be the purpose of blowing up (with an IED) a convoy of Palestinians in Gaza as they try to escape? With the effort they are going through to warn innocents in Gaza, it would seem rather counter-intuitive to start hitting cars with roadside bombs.
The only reasonable explanation for an Israeli strike on that convoy is that it isn't really a group of civilians and they knew it was Hamas fighters...but I don't think Israel would be willing to risk that at this point.
I did hear this morning on the radio that Zelensky asked to visit Israel as a show of solidarity but was requested to postpone due to suboptimal timing.
02Pilot
PowerDork
10/17/23 8:17 a.m.
I don't want this thread dragged off the rails by what's happening in the Middle East - there's too much valuable information and discourse here. I started a new thread for Israel/Palestine here; let's see if we can keep it alive longer than the first one.
Opti
SuperDork
10/17/23 8:22 a.m.
yupididit said:
In reply to aircooled :
Just because a JDAM wasn't used doesn't mean it wasn't Izzy. Especially, when they're amazing at improvised explosives. Depending on who you ask, Hummus and Izzy are both capable and known for of such attacks, and neither answer is wrong. The media coverage on this whole situation is very biased as a whole. Extreme biased towards both sides depending on the source. Where is the middle of the road coverage and criticism? Paleo's need as much aid as the Cranes were getting but it seems all the companies and folks with big platforms are afraid to advocate for the middle brown people. You can support them without claiming support for Hummus.
I am worried about the Izzy people aswell. I've worked with them when I was there in August. One in particular was ready to move back to NYC and be with her husband after coming to Izzy for some work. It was getting too HOT for her there, even in her line of work. They're generally welcoming folks if you don't fit a certain demographic. Very vigilant and always ready to do whatever.
Its pretty hard to find middle of the road coverage for anything nowadays, and its especially bad on something as polarizing as this. Look to this thread, if someone just says something like " we shouldnt be spending our resources on Ukraine" they are immediately called a Russian sympathizer. Many people lack the ability to understand nuance and its permeated into our media/new sphere.
Its also worth noting that there is pretty substantial support for HAMAS by the Palestinian people. Not saying they dont deserve humanitarian aid, but it might be a consideration for showing support or aide. HAMAS isnt necessarily a rouge faction, it is the elected government.
PS The US is sending 2000 Marines to Israel
JFW75
New Reader
10/17/23 11:09 a.m.
Day 3 of bomb threats against schools in the Baltics. Local schools here in Latvia were evac'ed and searched, again, this morning.
ATACM-S used on Russian airports and ammo dumps in Luhansk and Donetsk last night. Spicy. Didn't take long for them to put those to good use apparently.
For perspective, here is a map showing where Berdansk is in relation to the front lines as well as some of the potential other target areas. Obviously, very portable, so it can be launched from most anywhere. Also of note is I am sure this is still certainly under the restriction of not using them in Russian territory.
As noted previously, I am pretty sure they are only getting the cluster version of the ATACMs, which would likely have little effect on the Kerch bridge (maybe tear up the roadway?). Potentially very useful for an airport (which is what they hit) as it could likely hit a number of aircraft, even if they are in revetments.
The attack does seem to show though that the Russian air defense clearly can be gotten through by them (although I suspect other Ukrainians activities to suppress air defense was going on)
JFW75 said:
ATACM-S used on Russian airports and ammo dumps in Luhansk and Donetsk last night. Spicy. Didn't take long for them to put those to good use apparently.
The helicopters were part of why armor was being held back. Maybe a few more attacks like that, and tanks and IFVs will become more useful.
In reply to aircooled :
The upcoming elections may also be a hospital pass: Putin leaves power, all blame for Russian losses go to his successor, who take the heat.
Pete. (l33t FS) said:
In reply to aircooled :
The upcoming elections may also be a hospital pass: Putin leaves power, all blame for Russian losses go to his successor, who take the heat.
Successor resigns after the Ukraine truce and Putin returns to power. Master strategist.
