History in the Making: Russian Invasion

In reply to Noddaz :

Yeah that one made it onto more mainstream sources this morning with BBC top read a bit ago as the following: 

Ukraine war: Russia executing own retreating soldiers, US says

johndej said:

In reply to Noddaz :

Yeah that one made it onto more mainstream sources this morning with BBC top read a bit ago as the following: 

Ukraine war: Russia executing own retreating soldiers, US says

"However, future aid to Ukraine is in doubt following the election of Republican Mike Johnson as speaker of the US House of Representatives earlier this week.

Mr Johnson - who is on the right wing of the Republican Party - is against further US aid to Ukraine and has previously supported amendments to block it."

Edit: deleted to keep within the rules.

In reply to VolvoHeretic :

Watch the line please.

VolvoHeretic said:

Kind of a double standard in regards to the Republican support for Israel vs Ukraine and anti terrorism? 

Kind of a double standard in regards to the Democrat support for Ukraine vs Israel and anti-terrorism?

Yahoo.com: JD Vance calls Speaker Johnson’s Ukraine remarks ‘concerning’

Some potential that Ukraine may be pausing it's primary push near Bahkmut.  This of course brings of the issue of what will happen if US support does drop off significantly.  As noted previously, the ability for Ukraine to push Russia out of southern Ukraine would likely (my opinion) be the best quickest way to get this thing over (or at least stabilized).

With the large inpouring of North Korean ammo (and apparently artillery) into Russia is not a good sign.  The appearance of F16's will certainly help, but if Ukraine runs out of artillery shells, that could be devastating.

There seems to be potential for Ukraine to continue operations in the winter since they aren't going vehicle heavy anyway, but with iffy US support, maybe not.

“Ukraine has taken an operational pause on the southern sector of the front and is being cautious due to a possible “budgetary blockade” of further assistance from the United States,” Deutsche Welle

  While Russia seems to be concentrating on how many Russians they can get killed at Avdiivka (still attacking), the Ukrainians seem to be making some progress in the west across the Dnipro river, apparently capturing a small village.  (It's not obvious where this settlement is, somewhere near that gray area below):

Supposedly, the Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated the settlement of Krynka on the Left Bank of the Dnieper

Meanwhile in a "anti-nazi" Russian territory:

Things are starting to get tough in the Caucasus, Ruzzia: local residents are calling for
burn Jews
and drive them out of the country.

Meanwhile, in Nalchik, a Jewish center under construction was burned, the blocher Hasbik spoke out against Jewish refugees, and in Dagestan, Jews are not rented apartments and are prohibited from visiting public places.

Also, Turkey, and Erdogan are going full in for the Pro-Palestine thing... which realistically... is an anti-Isreal.... which realistically is an anti-Jew.  Which, makes things weird, as usual with Turkey, who as noted before is a bit of an unfortunate NATO member (essentially let in because NATO wanted bases next to Russia) who has previously been friendly with Russia, and of course are on the same side with Russia on the Palestine thing... or is it the anti-Jew thing?

(of note: this is not to imply all pro-Palestine rallys are anti-Jew, which I am pretty certain most US ones are not, but in this part of the world, it's a pretty easy guess)

02 might be able to provide some perspective on the Turkey situation(?)  While he is at it, maybe explain Romania a bit also (who is an almost pro-Russia NATO member).

Here are some things he is saying.   Remember, NATO member.  Holy war anyone?:

“The West is responsible for what is happening in the Gaza Strip. The massacre in the Gaza Strip is entirely the work of the West."

“Do you want a war between the cross and the crescent? Then know that this people is alive, this people is standing firm. Who we were in Libya, who we were in Karabakh, we will be the same in the Middle East.”

“Every country has the right to self-defense, but where is the justice? There is a massacre in Gaza."

Turkey will declare Israel a war criminal, relevant work is underway.

Should be interesting to watch Belarus try. I am surprised that Lithuania hasn't cut off all trade through their country to Kaliningrad from Belarus. I remember hearing talk of them thinking about doing just that.

Yahoo.com: Belarusian official proposes to "pave corridor" for transit through Lithuania

In reply to aircooled :

The abject confusion over the prioritization of seemingly conflicting individual aims of the numerous parties involved is part of what makes understanding events in this region so difficult to sort out. The missing piece is often insufficient consideration of domestic political concerns in shaping policy, or at least public messaging.

Erdogan's AKP party is primarily supported by Turks in the rural areas of the country, who tend to be provincial and more religious than cosmopolitan Turkish city-dwellers. In order to maintain their support, he has repeatedly played to their preferences and prejudices, as he is doing here. I don't know that I would characterize these as anti-Jew, so much as pro-Muslim (in different circumstances, similar anti-Christian messaging would not be surprising). This is also consistent with Erdogan's desire to position Turkey as a regional Muslim power in the eastern Med, on par with Saudi Arabia in the Persian Gulf.

Meanwhile, Israel and Turkey have in recent years maintained a productive relationship, following the 2016 normalization of diplomatic relations.

I was going to PM 02 about this, but I reconsidered and figured I'd put it up for everyone's consideration.  I'm just finishing a book:

Quantifying Counterfactual Military History

which is more mathematics intensive than I expected, but the overarching thrust of "were they really just lucky to win that battle?" is interesting to explore.  I stumbled across it online, suggested my local library buy a copy never expecting them to have any interest in something so niche-specific.  They bought a copy and I had first dibs on it.  I'm sure I'll re-read it again at some point because it's pretty tough chewing, but if you'd be interested in an analysis of the battle of Jutland, the Battle of Britain, Vietnam and the near triggering of WWIII in 1983 with the "Able Archer" NATO exercise, then you should try to lay hands on a copy.

In reply to stroker :

I am still not entirely sure the angle there.   Is it along the concept of: "By the numbers, there is no way the US should have won the Battle of Midway" ?

In reply to 02Pilot :

OK, thanks.  I am assuming a bit because the craziness in Dagestan (a small Russian republic in the Caucuses just north of Turkey) recently.  It was a full on "Jew Hunt" from Borat.  They heard about a plane arriving from Israel and it turned into a savage mob of people hunting for the Jews.  The Russian police eventually came in and ended up killing a few people.

https://www.npr.org/2023/10/30/1209388876/dagestan-airport-riots-israel-palestine

For all you geography nerds, this is where Dagestan is.  That is Turkey in the lower left, and the Black Sea to the left:

Wiki article on Able Archer 83

Going to have a read later

stroker said:

I was going to PM 02 about this, but I reconsidered and figured I'd put it up for everyone's consideration.  I'm just finishing a book:

Quantifying Counterfactual Military History

which is more mathematics intensive than I expected, but the overarching thrust of "were they really just lucky to win that battle?" is interesting to explore.  I stumbled across it online, suggested my local library buy a copy never expecting them to have any interest in something so niche-specific.  They bought a copy and I had first dibs on it.  I'm sure I'll re-read it again at some point because it's pretty tough chewing, but if you'd be interested in an analysis of the battle of Jutland, the Battle of Britain, Vietnam and the near triggering of WWIII in 1983 with the "Able Archer" NATO exercise, then you should try to lay hands on a copy.

Thanks for the recommendation. I've always thought that counterfactual history is a useful way to explore and better understand what did happen and why. This certainly could be an interesting take, though I admit a little concern looking at the list of authors and their military focus (or lack thereof). By-the-numbers analysis, if that's what this is, is fraught with issues in many fields, but particularly in military history. How did you feel about the argument and quality of the evidence supporting it?

Certainly more generally accessible, What If? : The World's Foremost Military Historians Imagine What Might Have Been is an interesting read that relies on specialists in the field (broadly speaking). Not to say I agree with all of them, but it's an entertaining and thought-provoking book.

For anyone who wants more on Able Archer, here's the declassified US intelligence report (formerly classified into lofty heights of secrecy: TOP SECRET UMBRA GAMMA WNINTEL NOFORN NOCONTRACT ORCON)

In reply to Pete. (l33t FS) :

Was that before of after Ronnie Reagan said, "My fellow Americans, I'm pleased to tell you today that I've signed legislation that will outlaw Russia forever. We begin bombing in five minutes."

In reply to VolvoHeretic :

Able Archer was first.

In reply to 02Pilot :

Well, as I said it was a fairly tough slog for me.  The Able Archer section was pretty dense as it contained a LOT of explanation of Game Theory and mathematical possibilities.  My initial interpretation is that specific situation was "conventional" in the sense of two adversaries misunderstanding their circumstances (and their opponent's) at that specific moment at time but it was simultaneously "unique" in the capabilities/stakes/ramifications were unprecedented.  It reminded me a lot of all the US military leadership asking "How could they have misread us so badly?" after Pearl Harbor.  I'm probably not the guy to ask for a critique of the book as the math simply makes my eyes glaze over--I don't have anything like the education or preparation necessary to see how their mathematical argument advances or supports their overarching conclusions.  It may have simply been an explanation of how state bureaucracies try to clarify the context of their situation and (hopefully) allow them to apply some "method" to their decision-making process.  My post was motivated by my overall impression of the book and trying to glean their argument as illustrated by their historical examples and thinking it might be of interest to some of The Hive.

Russia's tightening Internet restrictions closer to a Chinese level now:

https://torrentfreak.com/russia-blocks-167-vpns-steps-up-openvpn-wireguard-disruption-231031/

Pete. (l33t FS) said:

Wiki article on Able Archer 83

 

Going to have a read later

Dude, that one came so close to ending it all. Most of the public is at least familiar with the Cuban Missile Crisis yet have never heard of Able Archer.

Appleseed said:

Pete. (l33t FS) said:

Wiki article on Able Archer 83

 

Going to have a read later

Dude, that one came so close to ending it all. Most of the public is at least familiar with the Cuban Missile Crisis yet have never heard of Able Archer.

...and suddenly, various TLAs questioning Tom Clancy after he wrote THfRO makes a lot more sense.  Lots of the book have a similar sounding timeliness, and the book came out shortly afterwards, and it was not declassified until, what, 2015?

The amusing part is that there were two parts in the book where someone figured out highly restricted information just based on peripheral inference and intuition.

"similar sounding timeline" and also, berk autocorrect