History in the Making: Russian Invasion

In reply to VikkiDp :

I've felt for some time that Russian leadership isn't so afraid of a Ukraine/NATO military alliance as it is of Ukraine leaving it behind economically. 

a little bit about how Ukraine (and Dnipro in particular) celebrated the New year

*just a little clarification - we celebrate New Year's Eve more than Christmas(legacy of the USSR, unfortunately).

So you just can imagine that you celebrate Xmas with your family

December 31 - all day long all over Ukraine alarms - the total time of alarms in Dnipro region is almost 11 hours

the alarm continued all through New Year's night

January 1 - history repeats itself, as of now - it's in the late evening - the alarm has already lasted 9 hours and is still continuing.

All this time the threat persists, air defense forces are shooting down missiles and drones - we hear these sounds. Unfortunately, there were hits. Yes - it's hard, yes - it's exhausting, yes - it's stressful.

But despite everything that's going on - we try to live, have celebrations and little joys in our lives!!!

Peace and love to you all!!!

In reply to Kreb (Forum Supporter) :

I think that was one of the reasons, too. 

And if it weren't for the events of 2014 when russia annexed Crimea and the war that started in 2022. Ukraine was really developing economically. 

And that's exactly what i wrote about above - wouldn't it be more logical to direct efforts towards developing. hmmm...  Apparently not for russia. 

So it really hurts me to see someone's destroying my country. 

How russia lives? well, if you're interested, you can watch this documentary series. This was filmed by a Russian journalist.

*turn on the English subtitles

https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLFRQplrTcKj_OL8cqLYuBX7nV-ia6YPwG&si=O1lb2ZdS51vSFPmw

In reply to VikkiDp :

That does give some interesting perspective.  I have only watched the intro, but will watch more when I have a chance.  You will probably need to go into the settings (gear icon) and change the subtitles to English, it defaults to something else.  Click the CC icon for the subtitles.

Of note, (and you might be able add more here), this show the more "average" Russian, which might be equivalent to about the lowest possible standard of living you might find in the US (maybe?). There are of course the more elite types that live in Moscow for example.  They apparently live nothing like this.  I am sure most are still not up to US standards, but certainly way better than shown in the video. 

Those people (is there a common or derogatory/bad name for them?) of course generally don't send their sons to the war, most all of that is done by the "lesser" people from other parts of Russia.  I don't really know what percentage these privileged types represent, but it's likely small and maybe those in the Moscow area get a bit of boost from them? I have seen that the Moscow Oblast sends, by far, the lowest percentages of soldiers into the military.

The horrible conditions that these people live in of course only feeds the Russian war machine.  They live in a minor sort of hell, so war is not much of a step down for them.  They are also desperately poor, so getting a few years wages to have your son go to war is a huge draw for many and one reason why Russia can get soldiers.  Along with the prisoners they got to fight, these people are also not a loss many in Russia will care about, especially if they are from the outer areas (the non "white" Russians).

It is rather absurd when you think about it though.  Ukraine has such potential to become a truly productive and useful to the world (they were almost certainly the most productive part of the USSR).  It does make you think the war is almost a mater of jealousy by Russia.  If they can't have it, they won't let you have it.

I thought Vikki might appreciate this.

   They are letting girls fly!!  

I think the title is a bit off.  This looks to be an orientation flight, and she is likely not flying at all.  You can see in some shots she has her right arm up on the canopy rim, and the F16 has a sidestick that is on the right side.  The Ukrainians pilots are being trained though, and this at least shows some proof they are in the US currently training.

Apparently the first batch of Ukrainian pilots are getting near the end of their training.

(BTW, my sister is a pilot, so no actual disrespect for female pilots)

Some other stuff:

- Someone lite an SU-34 on fire on a Russian airfield (not some much security I guess) and burned it up.

- Germany has sent an aid package that included ammo (including Patriot missiles), air defense supplies, and some de-mining tanks.

- Russian STILL have not captured Avdiivka as promised.  I suspect someone is getting a visit to the 3rd floor....

- Russia appears to be transferring oil from tankers off of Greece (in international waters) to get around restrictions.

The United States will not help Ukraine at the level of the last two years, - State Department

The US goal is to help Ukraine stand on its own two feet and build its own military-industrial base so that it can independently finance, produce and purchase weapons.

State Department spokesman Matthew Miller stated this at a briefing.

Russia has started firing missiles they purchased from North Korea, Hwasong-11Ga.   Similar to the Iskander missile, 500 lb warhead, 450km or 600km range, depending on version.

There is a video of what is very likely a Kinzhal splashing down in Kyiv. Way to heavy for most other missiles, note the height of the splash.  It was something heavy!

In reply to aircooled :

And Ukraine will go looking for that missile.  The wreckage would be interesting.

Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to VikkiDp :

I've felt for some time that Russian leadership isn't so afraid of a Ukraine/NATO military alliance as it is of Ukraine leaving it behind economically. 

Oh that is exactly what it is.  Like a jealous divorcee trying to put down their ex.

aircooled said:

In reply to stroker :

Oil and gas.  The world really likes that, and they have a lot.  A good amount more potentially if they keep what they took from Ukraine.  I am not sure that counts as the finished product you are referring to, but parts of the Middle East have gotten quite wealthy with it.

That may be one reason they don't produce a lot of other world useful stuff (much like the Middle East).  They of course have a well developed defense industry, but I suspect the market for those products have faded a bit(!)

They have a decent space industry, but it's obviously not to the level of something like SpaceX.  There is a historically rather popular rocket engine (used in a US launch vehicle even), but.... that is/was produced in Ukraine!

A resource based economy makes for a few rich people and a lot of poor people.  A strong economy requires something that the populace at large can produce, be it tangible goods for trade or intellectual goods.

Unfortunately the video above was not correct.  As noted, she clearly was not flying, but apparently she is not Ukrainian or a pilot in training, but clearly a supporter of Ukraine.

(BTW - F the internet, the unending intentional deception is tiring)

In reply to aircooled :

It appears that the Ukrainian patch is photoshoped.

 The Ukrainians have made multiple attacks in Crimea, one of which hit a command center, RUMORS of General Gerasimov (Chief of the General Staff of the armed forces of the Russian Federation) being killed, but no confirmations.  They almost certainly lost some leader types though.

Some more info on the effect of the downing of the SU-34's:

Current artillery situation.  Of note is the Russians where using 60,000 a day at their peak use!

In reply to Stampie :

Oh, good catch, I didn't see that.  Yes, it's only in the thumbnail.

(F'n modern "media")

aircooled said:

In reply to Stampie :

Oh, good catch, I didn't see that.  Yes, it's only in the thumbnail.

(F'n modern "media")

No joke.  It's hard to know what to believe when basic due diligence gets tossed aside to make a story.

AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) said:

aircooled said:

In reply to Stampie :

Oh, good catch, I didn't see that.  Yes, it's only in the thumbnail.

(F'n modern "media")

No joke.  It's hard to know what to believe when basic due diligence gets tossed aside to make propaganda.

FTFY. 

aircooled said:

 The Ukrainians have made multiple attacks in Crimea, one of which hit a command center, RUMORS of General Gerasimov (Chief of the General Staff of the armed forces of the Russian Federation) being killed, but no confirmations.  They almost certainly lost some leader types though.

Some more info on the effect of the downing of the SU-34's:

Current artillery situation.  Of note is the Russians where using 60,000 a day at their peak use!

 

I am very hopeful the Ukrainian viper pilots can make a noticeable difference once they're fully trained and back in theater with their equipment.  If they achieve air superiority, maybe it will let their next offensive push through that much further.    

Flynlow (FS) said:

aircooled said:

 The Ukrainians have made multiple attacks in Crimea, one of which hit a command center, RUMORS of General Gerasimov (Chief of the General Staff of the armed forces of the Russian Federation) being killed, but no confirmations.  They almost certainly lost some leader types though.

Some more info on the effect of the downing of the SU-34's:

Current artillery situation.  Of note is the Russians where using 60,000 a day at their peak use!

 

I am very hopeful the Ukrainian viper pilots can make a noticeable difference once they're fully trained and back in theater with their equipment.  If they achieve air superiority, maybe it will let their next offensive push through that much further.    

I hate to disappoint you, but this 100% will not happen. A handful of first-gen F-16A airframes near the end of their service life (why do you think they're being donated?) are not going to make much difference at all. Sure, they might knock down some Russian fighters, but even if they miraculously manage to achieve local air superiority for a period of time, they aren't going to do anything about the minefields or artillery.

In reply to Flynlow (FS) :

There is potential for some local air superiority in the south western area (Kherson area), but the air defense situation is still very dense, and the Russian certainly still have aircraft with some good ranged missiles.  Ukraine has been seemingly doing a pretty good job at taking out air defenses in Crimea though....  throw a few more Patriot systems in there.... you could potentially end up with a pretty large "safe fly zone" for the Ukrainians...

It will be interesting to see exactly how they end up using them. One of the big issues (based on a previously posted video) is where they base them, and if they can keep them from being destroyed at those bases.  They have no aerial refueling capabilities, so distant bases will limit payload etc.

As noted, Russia has been making a concerted effort to yet again freeze the Ukrainians out.  The Russians seem to be having some issues also.  I certainly suspect Ukraine may have some part in this (revenge is a dish best served cold... and it's very cold in Moscow now...):

In the Moscow region, people saved themselves from the cold that night by fires in their yards

Russians started having problems with heating a few days ago. Despite all the promises, utility companies have not been able to solve this problem.

“We are freezing” they say.

Recently the temperature dropped to -17 F in Moscow region.

One of the most effective Ukrainian weapons recently:

France can supply Ukraine with another 85 SCALP-EG cruise missiles in addition to the 50 previously transferred missiles, — Le Figaro

This appears to have a lot to do with drone technologies (based on the companies involved).  There is a potential new trend in drones where they will use the "following" technology in current drones  (e.g. to follow a car or skier) as a way to automate targeting that cannot be jammed.  Russia is apparently working on this hard.  The drone wars are going to get pretty strange, pretty quickly.

White House nat sec officials met with leaders from Palantir Technologies, Anduril Industries, Fortem, Skydio and other defense companies today to discuss battlefield technologies that can aid Ukraine in its war against Russia's invasion

In reply to 02Pilot :

I believe the real goal of those F15s is going to be twofold- to finally give Ukraine some air power, but more importantly give the spectre of such a counterattack if Russia attempts something with it's dwindling SUs who are also hitting their limits. A sword keeps another in the sheath. 

In reply to GIRTHQUAKE :

It's an empty threat, and the Russians know it. As aircooled pointed out, the real problem is ground-based air defense and keeping the runways alive, not offensive counter-air. The F-16 may be a useful air defense fighter, even in the limited early models being supplied, but with the Russians relying heavily on standoff weapons already, I don't expect they'll make much difference. They certainly won't be used the way the US has, since the US has never had to deal with contested airspace, and they won't survive long hammering on the deck like Su-25s.

I was more hopeful they could be used as nimble, low-level bomb trucks.  The F16, even the A model, is a pretty capable multirole aircraft.  Let the russians dig in and mine/trench somewhere, and lob a smart bomb right down their throats, rather than chewing up infantry trying to get to them.  Or hit supply lines behind the front.  
 

Though drones can probably do that far easier and cheaper.   Is there an upper limit on payload for the drones in use vs the vipers?  I think an f16's ordinance payload is around 15,000lbs, you're not putting that on a small drone.  And i dont know if the pentagon ever gave the green light to send reapers.  

I would would guess F16s will be used for SEAD missions, when Ukraine wants to strike Crimea.  It would be nice if the rules would be loosened up enough to allow them to do the same to air defenses just over the border in Russia.  Ditto for air to air against bombers.  Anything to push Russian warplanes further back would be helpful.

The drones Ukraine is using for most of their stuff is limited to a few pounds generally, so mostly grenades and such.  I have seen them drop anti-tank mines from what must be larger ones, but those are still likely in the 10lbs range.

Ukraine will also likely get the JDAM-ER bombs (kits can be fitted to 500, 1000 or 2000lb bombs), which adds wings and gives them a potentially range of 45 miles!  That's likely a high altitude drop, which should be possible (it's what the Russians have been doing).  Not sure what they could do by lobbing them, but it's a very low risk maneuver generally.  They are GPS guided so very accurate but potentially susceptible to jamming of course.

If nothing else, JDAMs could make life for Russians near the lines and of course any attacking, even worse than it is already.