Yeah, thanks, that is why I asked. That government is very different than what we are used to.
Yeah, thanks, that is why I asked. That government is very different than what we are used to.
Some estimates that I thought were interesting. Source: https://x.com/Volodymyr_D_/status/1800972618625056871?prefetchTimestamp=1720523293793
It's well worth the read (I think) if you click on the link for the thread. Essentially it appears that russia is reaching its critical point for artillery losses, with old soviet stockpiles beginning to dry up. The expectation is that it will have to reduce the number of rounds it fires to 5000 or less per day by mid/end of next year unless they change strategies (or we'll see a "fire to fail" trend begin to appear). This could hamper their offensive abilities.
Money also seems to be a bit of a pinch point. Armor to a lesser degree, and tanks slightly less than that.
In short: russia is spending faster than it is replenishing in a few important areas and they haven't been able to capture much territory to show for it.
Somehow I don't think Russia cares about barrels on tanks or artillery being shot out. As long as the shot goes down range all is good. Of course it will be different if they run low on shells. It would be a terrible thing if a train crossing from North Korea into Russia blew up after it crossed the border into Russia.
I think Russia is perfectly willing to keep throwing shells, equipment, and human beings into this invasion for years to come. Ukraine can hold out as long as public opinion in the West continues to favor spending billions to support them. And there are already signs that that support is starting to crack. I know I sound fatalistic, but this was the Taliban playbook for fighting both Russia and the US, and it worked. 
Tom_Spangler (Forum Supporter) said:I think Russia is perfectly willing to keep throwing shells, equipment, and human beings into this invasion for years to come. Ukraine can hold out as long as public opinion in the West continues to favor spending billions to support them. And there are already signs that that support is starting to crack. I know I sound fatalistic, but this was the Taliban playbook for fighting both Russia and the US, and it worked.
If you go by their history, it will be past the point you see this that Russia considers calling it quits.
Noddaz said:Somehow I don't think Russia cares about barrels on tanks or artillery being shot out. As long as the shot goes down range all is good. Of course it will be different if they run low on shells. It would be a terrible thing if a train crossing from North Korea into Russia blew up after it crossed the border into Russia.
Correct. When a barrel goes past its range count at EFC its accuracy and range starts to drop. For the M1A1 this is about 1500 rounds before it has to be replaced, although in practice they will pull a barrel before then if it is starting to wear prematurely.
Now Russia... hell. No clue. Probably till the barrel literally splits, and then they would want to cut it down below the split if possible. WAG, 3000, 4000 rounds? I did some light googling and the only reports/pictures I found of tanks with split barrels were from confirmed premature detonation
Not only is Russia willing to throw resources into this conflict indefinitely, there's an argument to be made that they are actively trying to prolong it. As I've discussed here several times, there are real domestic benefits for Putin for keeping the tension level with the West high, and the costs thus far are relatively limited. Further, the targeting of civilian buildings is clearly intentional in many cases, but to ascribe this to sheer bloody-mindedness misses the political implications; hitting hospitals, schools, and apartments ensures that the Ukrainians will resist any compromise settlement (and arguably produce some additional benefits*), while Western supporters will inevitably push for such an agreement the longer the fighting continues. This drives a wedge between Ukraine and its supporters, and possibly between various Western/NATO countries, all of which is beneficial to Russia's position. On the flip-side, loss of accuracy caused by worn-out weapons may have tactical costs, but with none of the concerns about collateral damage, this is not nearly the issue Western analysts make it out to be.
*I recall a quote from a USAAF officer discussing the strategic bombing effort in WW2 that cuts to the heart of the matter: "It made sense to kill skilled workers." While large-scale bombing of cities was a necessary consequence of technological targeting limitations of industrial facilities, rather that a policy of terror (I'm aware that some contest this point of view, particularly regarding the incendiary bombings late in the war), killing, wounding, or displacing workers and their families could not but further Allied war aims of reducing economic output and military capability. The Russians may be vilified for hitting hospitals, but every doctor they kill is one who can no longer work on Ukrainian wounded. The same goes for any worker with skills that could contribute to the Ukrainian war effort.
In reply to 02Pilot :
You are likely on to something there....
A staggering statistic from Physicians for Human Rights shows that Russia has carried out a total of 1442 attacks on health care in Ukraine since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. This has meant that one in 10 hospitals in the country have been directly damaged by Russian attacks.
Attacks on healthcare are not unique to hospitals; pharmacies, ambulances and healthcare workers have also been singled out by enemy fire.
A Ukrainian Hospital, One of Russia’s Favourite Targets—As Seen on This Map
In response to the July 8th attacks on the “Ohmatdyt” Children’s Hospital in Kyiv, we take a closer look at other times Russia has violated international humanitarian law by deliberately and indiscriminately targeting hospitals in Ukraine.
A staggering statistic from Physicians for Human Rights shows that Russia has carried out a total of 1442 attacks on health care in Ukraine since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. This has meant that one in 10 hospitals in the country have been directly damaged by Russian attacks.....
Getting a lot of mixed messages on this. Last I heard, there would be no fully trained pilots until the end of the year (?!):
Blinken: F-16s are already on their way to Ukraine from Denmark and the Netherlands
"These planes will be flying in the skies of Ukraine this summer," US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said.
"...has violated international humanitarian law by deliberately and indiscriminately targeting hospitals..." Umm, which one is it, deliberately or indiscriminately?
In reply to 02Pilot :
They attack hospitals...
...they don't care which one?
In reply to aircooled :
Somehow I imagine their targeting is more intentional that pulling a random hospital name out of a hat and lobbing missiles at it.
On an only slightly related note, I found this documentary from 1995 to provide a very useful data set for understanding the Russian mindset generally, as well as some good historical evidence on just how comprehensively the once mighty Soviet Union had collapsed in just a few years, with all the attendant consequences. I never flew Aeroflot back then, but I had a few experiences on JAT (Yugoslav Airlines) that felt fairly familiar as I watched.
Mr_Asa said:Noddaz said:Somehow I don't think Russia cares about barrels on tanks or artillery being shot out. As long as the shot goes down range all is good. Of course it will be different if they run low on shells. It would be a terrible thing if a train crossing from North Korea into Russia blew up after it crossed the border into Russia.
Correct. When a barrel goes past its range count at EFC its accuracy and range starts to drop. For the M1A1 this is about 1500 rounds before it has to be replaced, although in practice they will pull a barrel before then if it is starting to wear prematurely.
Now Russia... hell. No clue. Probably till the barrel literally splits, and then they would want to cut it down below the split if possible. WAG, 3000, 4000 rounds? I did some light googling and the only reports/pictures I found of tanks with split barrels were from confirmed premature detonation
The way I read the estimation, they described a "fire to fail" scenario after the critical point unless there was a reduction in rounds lobbed (to allow repair facilities to catch up with maintenance and serviceability). To me this doesn't sound like a "shot out barrel", but the loss of a tube. I thought it important because I've noticed that russia's offensive capability has been very dependent on artillery. It seems like every time Ukraine comes even remotely close to parity the lines stop moving west.
Well now. This is interesting.
The Russian pilot handed over the data of those responsible for the attack on "Okhmadit"
The Russian military handed over information about the officers of the 22nd Heavy Bomber Aviation Division involved in the missile attack on the children's hospital in Kyiv.
This is reported by the Sprotyv info project.
After the Russian attack on the Ohmadit Children's Hospital, which was committed on July 8, 2024, one of the pilots of the 22nd Heavy Bomber Aviation Division contacted the chatbot of the GUR of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.
The Russian military handed over information about the officers of the 22nd Heavy Bomber Aviation Division involved in the missile attack on the children's hospital in Kyiv.
This is reported by the Sprotyv info project.
After the Russian attack on the Ohmadit Children's Hospital, which was committed on July 8, 2024, one of the pilots of the 22nd Heavy Bomber Aviation Division contacted the chatbot of the GUR of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.
" The Russian soldier wrote that he was shocked by the attack on the children's hospital and, like several of his colleagues, did not understand why they were being forced to attack the civilian infrastructure of Ukraine. Therefore, he decided to hand over to the Ukrainian side documents related to the activities of the military unit, as well as private photos of the command staff of the 22nd Heavy Bombardment Aviation Division ," the project reported, citing its own sources in the GUR.
*****
This assessment seems to point to the general state of the front at this point. The Russian loss rates are seemingly getting pretty extreme. They have gone back to using prisoners again (who are essentially expected to die at the front). As a reminder, Afghanistan, which Russia (USSR) essentially pulled out of because of the casualty rates, resulted in approximately 25,000 Russian deaths and 50,000 wounded (in about 10 years).... Ukraine is somewhere in the neighborhood of 500,000! (that's killed and wounded combined), so nearing 10 times the amount!!, in 2 1/2 years, so almost 40 times the rate!!!
Putin's articulated theory of a slow, grinding victory in Ukraine is notably premised on accepting continuously high casualty rates, as exemplified by reported Russian losses accrued during two recent offensive efforts. In his July 9 article, Havrylyuk claimed that Russian forces suffered 5,000 casualties for just one district of Chasiv Yar, likely referring to Kanal Microraion (the only neighborhood of easternmost Chasiv Yar that Russian forces currently control).[22] Kanal Microraion is around three blocks wide and three blocks long, and the loss of 5,000 personnel for such a small piece of territory is indicative of the highly attritional way in which Russian forces are conducting their offensive operations. Ukrainian Kharkiv Group of Forces Chief-of-Staff Viktor Solimchuk similarly reported on July 10 that Russian forces lost (killed, wounded, or captured) 91 percent of the personnel they committed to fighting (reportedly amounting to roughly a division‘s worth of personnel) in northern Kharkiv Oblast at the start of the Kharkiv Oblast offensive in early May 2024.[23] Solimchuk also noted that Russian offensive efforts in Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, have severely weakened the 138th Motorized Rifle Brigade (6th Combined Arms Army, Leningrad Military District).[24] Ukrainian and Western sources recently reported that the 83rd Airborne (VDV) Brigade suffered such devastating losses in Kharkiv Oblast that it is no longer combat-effective.[25] ISW cannot independently verify either Ukrainian or Western estimates of Russian casualties, but the recent increase in reports of entire Russian units becoming combat ineffective due to losses highlights the tactics on which Russian forces are relying on to pursue Putin's theory of a slow, gradual, grinding victory in Ukraine.
Noddaz said:Somehow I don't think Russia cares about barrels on tanks or artillery being shot out. As long as the shot goes down range all is good. Of course it will be different if they run low on shells. It would be a terrible thing if a train crossing from North Korea into Russia blew up after it crossed the border into Russia.
and after the check was cashed...
There was also this bust of a bot farm that was frighteningly brilliant, including per-account proxy addresses(!)...except for the part where all of the accounts were registered to one of just two sketchy domain names the operation owned. I wonder what was keeping them from using ordinary free email accounts?
In reply to GameboyRMH :
They probably are using those already, but the scale of that couldn't be done covertly with the free email providers as you'd hope someone would notice.
In reply to WOW Really Paul? :
I'd think that with their capability to run actions through per-account proxies, if they ran email signups through that, nobody would notice, especially if they space the signups out over a couple days of time.
In reply to GameboyRMH :
Something to take note of for the next few months (and for ever more really) in the linked article:
...We're told the X accounts were used to "sow discord in the United States and elsewhere," in hope of causing people to squabble among themselves and distrust one another, which would suit the Kremlin...
It's always a good idea to keep that concept in mind any time you see any "news" that is particularly shocking. Also, of course, most any Russian statements about the West.
I find this channel to be overly-optimistic at times, but this is the first mention of artillery wear I've seen mentioned
The timing is perfect as we were just discussing it, but it looks like reports are coming in of "fire to fail" resulting in the loss of tubes.
Also on topic: Recruitment of foreigners (Sri Lankans and Central Africans) to make up for manning shortages.
aircooled said:In reply to GameboyRMH :
Something to take note of for the next few months (and for ever more really) in the linked article:
...We're told the X accounts were used to "sow discord in the United States and elsewhere," in hope of causing people to squabble among themselves and distrust one another, which would suit the Kremlin...
It's always a good idea to keep that concept in mind any time you see any "news" that is particularly shocking. Also, of course, most any Russian statements about the West.
Wasn't that the reason Musk bought Twitter - to eradicate bot/fake accounts?
OHSCrifle said:aircooled said:In reply to GameboyRMH :
Something to take note of for the next few months (and for ever more really) in the linked article:
...We're told the X accounts were used to "sow discord in the United States and elsewhere," in hope of causing people to squabble among themselves and distrust one another, which would suit the Kremlin...
It's always a good idea to keep that concept in mind any time you see any "news" that is particularly shocking. Also, of course, most any Russian statements about the West.
Wasn't that the reason Musk bought Twitter - to eradicate bot/fake accounts?
Eradicate? Or enable? Because he certainly hasn't succeeded (or even made efforts) at the first.
I would love to see bot farms and scam call centers viewed as legitimate wartime targets (relevant movie clip):
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