In reply to OHSCrifle :
I think he was just using that as an excuse to try to back out of buying Twitter.
In reply to OHSCrifle :
I think he was just using that as an excuse to try to back out of buying Twitter.
"people" are saying, there will be F16's in Ukraine, this month! Not sure if the pilots are ready (?) (Yes, air defense systems in Russian territory are still rapidly dissassembling)
More Patriot systems are heading to Ukraine, from various sources, which I suspect they will really need for wherever they keep the F16's.
Not a real pic, but if they repaint them, this could be the look:
In reply to aircooled :
Ward Carroll posted this a while back. It offers some real insights into the training issues associated with Ukraine employing F-16s effectively.
In reply to 02Pilot :
The end of that also provide an interesting potential timeline. Essentially (as shown above) the Russian production / equipment / refurbishment situation will get worse going into next year, while the Ukrainians will get better (western support). This creates a viable reason (pain) why Russia might start looking for a negotiation.
Still no sign of a general Russian summer offensive, that I have seen.... maybe they are massing troops somewhere that is not obvious... (which is essentially impossible as far as Western intelligence gathering, just that it's not public)
In reply to 02Pilot :
I really liked that video and how intelligent and clearly that info was presented and explained. Thank you for that.
Some updates: Not a lot changing.
- The eastern European region is currently experiencing a heat wave. Parts of Ukraine are getting over 100 deg (f) temperatures. Needless to say, this is having a bit of an impact on the fighting. Probably accelerating the wear on barrels etc.
- The Russians continue to loose an estimated 1000 ish troops a day (KIA and WIA). For perspective (obviously different situation) the US effectively started 2 large wars over loosing 3000 people on 9/11, and in maybe 4 months, the Russians will loose as many soldiers as the US did in the entire Vietnam war.
- In the Kharkiv region (northern, where the recent Russian offensive was), the Ukrainians are pushing the Russians back and may have even surrounded some. Generally it seems like things are going very bad for the Russians there.
- In the south eastern area (Avdivka area). This is probably the only real area of concern for the Ukrainians. The Russians continue to slowly advance. The primary concern here is the road you can see running south west to north east. The Russians cutting that could make supply more difficult for the Ukrainians. Map from April and current shown below:
Some more info on the Russian supply situation (basically the same as what has been said above). As noted before this could be a potential path to the end of this thing:
According to The Economist, stocks of Soviet tanks and artillery in Russia may be depleted by 2025, as the country faces challenges in producing these weapons independently.
Russia has shifted towards a military economy, increasing missile production and maintaining a recruiting rate of about 25,000 recruits monthly to sustain its occupying force of 470,000 personnel.
Despite having substantial reserves of Soviet-era tanks and artillery, which have been heavily depleted due to losses in recent large-scale conflicts, most stored outdoors since the 1990s are in poor condition.
The production and repair of tanks are hindered by shortages of skilled workers, components like fuel heaters and high-voltage systems, and sanctions preventing access to critical equipment from Europe. Chinese alternatives often do not meet quality standards.
Historical centers of arms production in Ukraine, Georgia, and East Germany, including Kharkiv's role in tank turret manufacturing, are no longer accessible. The military industry workforce has decreased sharply, from 10 million to 2 million employees, without adequate compensation or automation.
Artillery production faces similar challenges, lacking essential machinery previously imported from Austria and now unavailable. Despite assistance from North Korea in ammunition supply, frontline artillery suffers from rapid wear, with some barrels needing replacement within months.
Russia has managed to replace about 4,800 artillery barrels since the beginning of the year but requires another 7,000 replacements due to high wear rates. Experts predict Russia will face critical shortages of armored vehicles and artillery by the second half of 2025 if current depletion rates continue.
Here is the article, but it is behind a paywall: https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/07/16/russias-vast-stocks-of-soviet-era-weaponry-are-running-out
In reply to DarkMonohue :
An interesting, and rather thorough assessment. It does point to an interesting aspect of modern times: The amount of intel this guy presents, entirely from open (civilian accessible) sources is absolutely absurd compared to what even the military had access to in, say, WWII.
The general assessment (for those who don't watch it) seems to be clear indication of a very large draw down of Russian reserves vehicle (and air defense) assets. Also, the absolute absurdity (as in physically impossibility) of Russia claims of Ukrainian losses.
One aspect, that he really doesn't cover, is that a T-62, while a WILDLY inferior tank to a T-80 in tank to tank combat, for use in lobbing shells towards infantry positions, receiving Ukrainian drone hits, or running over anti-tank mines, they are far more comparable (!). Tank to tank combat seems to be very uncommon at the front these days.
One guess on my part also is that the use of some of these rather obsolete, hastily refurbished vehicles and guns are heavily being used (along with sub-par soldiers, such as prisoners) in the northern (Kharkiv) offensive, and are of course being ground up rather effectively (there my be two groups that are now surrounded). While the (what seems to be the main, maybe the "summer" offensive) advances in the south east are likely better equipped, and of course is likely contributing to the the continued Russian looses of higher quality equipment, and likely why the are more successful.
aircooled said:One aspect, that he really doesn't cover, is that a T-62, while a WILDLY inferior tank to a T-80 in tank to tank combat, for use in lobbing shells towards infantry positions, receiving Ukrainian drone hits, or running over anti-tank mines, they are far more comparable (!). Tank to tank combat seems to be very uncommon at the front these days.
In this regard, it seems to be following the general trajectory of the Korean War. After the initial armored thrusts by the NK were halted by air power and TF Smith, and the failure (in that it did not end the conflict) of the following counter-offensive heading north from Inchon, the war settled into a more static phase. What armor there was in-theater was largely obsolete and basically used for fire support, with tank battles being rare, and almost unheard of after 1950. This short essay gives some background on the US side, and this longer article goes into more detail.
eastsideTim said:In reply to OHSCrifle :
I think he was just using that as an excuse to try to back out of buying Twitter.
IMO Musk is all-in on Twitter. It's an investment in expressing his views, building support for his positions, and having a built-in advertising platform for his ventures. It's not just something that he did on a whim, or because he thought that he was being treated unfairly. It's part of the big picture. It doesn't need to make money. That was never the point.
Someone blew up Andrey Torgashov (alive, but missing some parts), deputy head of the Russian army's satellite communications center. This almost seems more of an internal thing (?)
Ukraine managed, what seemed like a rather large (Russia reported shooting down 70 drones!) strike on Morozovsk Air Basein Rostov Oblast (a base used heavily for the glide bomb attacks):
The attack reportedly damaged an S-300/400 SAM position, a Su-34 aircraft parking area, another fighter jet parking area, a fuel and lubricants storage facility, and the runway.
More attacks on oil refineries:
Of note is that Russia, also having a bit of a heat wave, has been having power generation issues that have resulted in blackout etc. Putin claims it's all the bit coin mining.... yeah....
In that other thing, you may have heard, the Houti's managed a drone strike on Tel Aviv (I think it hit the US consulate?). Israeli air defense did not see it. It flew up the Red Sea, across the Sinai peninsula (where the Suez canal is), over the Mediterranean, and made the approach on Tel Aviv from the west (likely why it was not seen). The Israeli's where not amused and sent a group of F-16's and F-35's (with aerial tankers) to do what seem like some rather significant damage to an oil refinery in Yeman:
In reply to aircooled :
Re: The Yemen strike, the Israelis didn't just light off the tank farm, but also killed the only two heavy lift dock cranes in the country, which just happen to have been in the port where most Iranian deliveries of weapons are offloaded. I suspect there would have been even more targets hit but for 1) US pressure, and 2) husbanding stockpiles for a conflict with Hezbollah.
In reply to 02Pilot :
Oh, OK, thanks. I did see a video from some missiles that were clearly hitting cranes. I was wondering what the motivation was.
Here is a shot to give another idea of the tank farm hit. Seems pretty significant:
Shot of one of the (ex) cranes. From the video it looks like they hit the trolley (the moving part with the winch and cables) of each of the cranes:
An interesting numerical analysis of the war, Russians rate of progress, casualty rates, materiel burn rate, etc.
TLDR, at the monthly rate of territory acquisition it will take hundreds of years to subjugate all of Ukraine.
At the current casualty rate it will cost 33M fatalities and 100M wounded.
There's much more to it, worth a watch.
Some updates:
The attack on the Russian deputy (noted above) was definitely an internal thing. The culprit was caught in Turkey and return to Russia.
The Russians continue to make someone steady, but somewhat slow progress in the southeast (Avdiika direction). In the more southern area, the Russians attempted what might be called a full mechanized assault across mostly open ground in an attempt to circle around the Ukrainians. The results where not surprising. The Ukrainians saw them coming and obliterated them. Not sure why they thought that would work (bad intel?)
A fairly large group of Wanger troops (now a state run mercenary group?) where ambushed and wiped out in Mali (Africa).
Refineries and oil storage areas continue to be hit by Ukraine by drones. The Ukrainian drones strikes seem to be coming in rather large numbers. I forget the country, but Ukraine is being supplied with large numbers of drones build by them. There have been some long range strikes on airfields:
Ukrainian drones reportedly struck a Tu-22M3 strategic bomber at the "Olenya" airfield, located 1,800 km from Ukraine's border, according to sources cited by UP.
The roles of F16's seems to be getting defined. The supply of precision strike weapons clearly opens up some potential for some Ukrainian inventiveness in their use. Maybe related, but it also appears Russia is concentrating air defense near the Kerch bridge, at the cost of the rest of Crimea.
The Washington Post reports that F-16 fighter jets will arrive in Ukraine within a few weeks to bolster air defense. These jets will focus on intercepting missiles, drones, and enemy aircraft rather than striking Russian ground forces or military targets.
The U.S. will equip F-16s for Ukraine with advanced weapons, including air-to-ground munitions, precision-guidance kits for bombs, and modern air-to-air missiles, according to an unnamed U.S. official cited by WSJ.
Let's say Ukraine launches a strike at the Kerch bridge and wipes it out. Does Russia come to the negotiating table with terms that Ukraine could accept?
Taking out the Kerch bridge creates a huge logistics issue for Russia. As it turns out, that railway they are building to bypass the bridge through southern Ukraine, is not what they thought. It only goes to Meriupol (maybe 1/4 the way)! That essentially leaves ferries and other ships (and of course trucks taking the long way). Ukraine recently struck one of the ferries that runs across the Kerch straight and has sunk or damaged all (?) of the Russian amphibious assault ships (which would be ideal for ferrying things across the straight.
The only port on the Sea of Azov for Crimea is Kerch BTW. Russia has also essentially abandoned the Black Sea, ship wise, so nothing likely to run past the straight.
So, it seems likely, that everything south of Zaporizhshia and Crimea would have serious supply issues. The question of course, are the Ukrainians in any sort of position to threaten to take back any of those areas. If so, that puts the Russians in a position of potential pain, which of course is the necessary basis for negotiation.
The other aspect, is that is potentially sets up grounds for Ukraine to reclaim some of those lands (either through force or negotiations)
One wild guess might be, if Crimea can be threatened enough it might serve as the basis to potentially keep Crimea (demilitarized would seem like a good plan) in return for returning some (most / all) of the southern Ukrainian regions.
In reply to aircooled :
Re: Crimea, another factor that has to be considered is the water situation. I saw a document that indicated local intel sources are stating that Russian pilots and aircrew based there are being restricted to 1L of water per day, and that many of them are going out into the population on their time off to try to scrounge more. If some of the most important military assets are being limited in this way, imagine what it's like for the grunts, never mind the civilians. If Russia doesn't figure out the water situation, they'll never be able to keep Crimea unless they're willing to turn it into a wasteland.
Issues with drinkable water seems to be an issue all along the front for Russia because of supply issues. Probably that is mostly heat related, but they are resorting to drinking water from puddle etc. I imagine it's only that much worse in Crimea, which of course is in the hotter area of Ukraine..
Also of note is the Russian Duma is planning on preventing use of personal cell phones by all military personnel. Likely to help reduce the leaking of videos of soldiers drinking dirty water etc. Intelligence leaks by cell phones was a huge issue early on in the war. Apparently soldier still use them for basic communication though, so that could have a detrimental effect. I suspect there will be a lot of violations of this though.
Russia is now legally authorizing cryptocurrencies for Russian businesses to use in international trade to work around sanctions, they're expecting to start these payments by the end of the year:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-launch-international-payments-crypto-100055422.html
In reply to GameboyRMH :
Ironic, given that just two weeks ago Putin identified unrestrained crypto farming as a cause for potential power outages in Russia.
In reply to 02Pilot :
Do you think that's true, or just more propaganda for the home folks?
In reply to z31maniac :
Probably mostly deflecting blame from the regime, but there may be a degree of truth. I doubt there is a lot of redundancy in the Russian electricity grid, nor do I think it is particularly robust. If there are entities mining large amounts of crypto, the idea that they could cause interruptions is not absurd.
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