History in the Making: Russian Invasion

In other news, a somewhat significant development (that is likely all over the news):

Israel has probably eliminated Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar

On Thursday, the Israeli military said that they are investigating whether the leader of Hamas was killed in the Gaza Strip.

Israeli representatives are now transporting the body of the slain militant to a DNA laboratory for analysis.

He is the highest ranking leader of Hamas in Gaza and certainly heavily responsible for the Oct 7 attacks.  Will this likely change much?  Probably not, but will likely degrade the organizational ability of Hamas (which, like Hezbollah, has to be pretty shattered at this point).

In another interesting absurdity.  I read that the Iranians where vowing revenge for Israel blowing up one of the generals (or something) who was hanging out with some Hezbollah leaders when they got blown up.  Of course, the Israelis have not yet retaliated for the attack by the Iranians which was a retaliation for the Iranian leader getting blown up in Iran, which was likely a general retaliation for the the Hezbollah missiles.... argh.   At some point someone will need to make a chart or something....

Also, it appears (?) as if the Israelis have agreed to not attack nuclear facilities or oil production facilities by US insistence.  I am not sure why the US does not want the nuclear stuff attacked (I am sure it would be pretty challenging at least), but the oil facilities restriction is almost certainly to avoid a spike in oil prices....  war... rules...  weird....

aircooled said:

In other news, a somewhat significant development (that is likely all over the news):

 

 

 but the oil facilities restriction is almost certainly to avoid a spike in oil prices....  war... rules...  weird....

Remember, high oil prices are bad optics when there's an election just around the corner.

Indy - Guy said:

aircooled said:

In other news, a somewhat significant development (that is likely all over the news):

 

 

 but the oil facilities restriction is almost certainly to avoid a spike in oil prices....  war... rules...  weird....

Remember, high oil prices are bad optics when there's an election just around the corner.

But just wait until Nov 6.

aircooled said:

Also, it appears (?) as if the Israelis have agreed to not attack nuclear facilities or oil production facilities by US insistence.  I am not sure why the US does not want the nuclear stuff attacked (I am sure it would be pretty challenging at least), but the oil facilities restriction is almost certainly to avoid a spike in oil prices....  war... rules...  weird....

The US struck Houthi underground arms arms storage facilities with a B-2 strike. This is relevant because the use of the B-2 suggests that this may mark the first operational use of the MOP against an underground target. Iran will likely understand the implication here that the US is capable of hitting targets deep underground; in other words, don't think your nuclear program is safe if you get bad ideas about escalation. This is likely an effort at deterring Iran after what is sure to be some manner of retaliation by Israel; deterring Israel from hitting politically inconvenient targets has probably been by more subtle means.

In reply to 02Pilot :

Doing it with almost certainly no idea the bombers where ever there is likely very much part of the message also.

A point someone made that I heard was that Israel is very secretive about some of its weapons development, and very good about keeping those secrets.  It's really hard to say what Israel capabilities are, and be well assured, they have been aware Iran is a huge threat for a very long time, certainly long enough in weapons development time.

...Air Force inventory currently capable to operationally drop the massive 30,000-lb (14,000 kg) GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator.

Sometimes mistaken with the 11-ton, parachute deployed, GBU-43B MOAB (Massive Ordnance Air Blast) also known as “Mother Of All Bombs”, the largest conventional air dropped weapon ever employed by the U.S. military, dropped by an Air Force Special Operations MC-130 Combat Talon II on an ISIS cave complex target in Afghanistan, for the very first time on Apr. 13, 2017, the 14-ton GBU-57 MOP is a 20-foot long GPS-guided bomb said to be able to penetrate 200 feet of concrete before exploding.

The B-2 can carry two MOPs in its internal bomb bay.

For perspective, the largest bomb used in WWII, for the same purpose, penetrating deep into the ground (or fortifications, specifically U-boat pens), was the 22,000 lb Grand Slam.

What it could do (that is clearly reinforced concrete).  This is likly the roof of one of the German U-boat pens in France.  

North Korea is stepping things up a bit, and maybe South Korea?  One wonders if they will use these troops in a less reckless way than they do their own troops?  Or maybe more?

South Korean intelligence and the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Kirill Budanov have released new data on the participation of North Korean bastards in the war against Ukraine, and their assessments are almost identical.

▪️According to South Korea, which Reuters reports citing the Yonhap agency, North Korea has decided to send 4 brigades totaling 12,000 people, including special forces units.

▪️According to Kirill Budanov, which he voiced in a commentary to The War Zone, North Korea is training 11,000 people, of which 2,600 will go to the Kursk region and will be ready by November 1.

▪️South Korean President Yun Seok-yul held an unscheduled meeting and called it "a mortal danger not only for South Korea, but for the entire international community." Yool's office said that Seoul would respond "with all available means."

▪️What is meant by "all available means"? The War Zone experts believe that South Korea may decide to begin direct military aid deliveries to Ukraine (this is currently prohibited, and deliveries were made through third countries).

In reply to aircooled :

 the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation Kirill Budanov

a little correction if i may 

Kirill Budanov is  the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine 

In reply to aircooled :

Jeez, makes you wonder when Ukraine's going to think of changing their name to "Proxy".

In reply to VikkiDp :

OK thanks, corrected.    That's certainly something we don't want to confuse!!!

In reply to Kreb (Forum Supporter) :

I was thinking the irony of the Koreas being a proxy war between the west and the communists, and now they have grown up so much they can have their very own using Ukraine.

A bit of internet "news" stupidity going around.  Apparently someone was reporting that Ukraine was developing nuclear weapons and would have them soon.

On a practical level, that of course is pretty absurd.  Developing nuclear weapons takes a lot of time and effort and would be very difficult to hide.  More practically, Ukraine used to have a CRAP load of them as they were a major storehouse for nukes for the USSR.  Those of course were all removed when Ukraine became independent (with assurances of security if they did....).  So, the possibility that a few were left behind or stashed away is a remote possibility (but realistically, highly unlikely).

It all seems to be based on some comments from Zelenskiy that were misinterpreted:

Ukraine not considering nuclear arms, top official Yermak says

....

"I told him: What is the way out – either Ukraine will have nuclear weapons, and then this is defence for us, or we should have some kind of an alliance," the Ukrainian leader told reporters at a European Union summit in Brussels.

But Zelenskiy also declared: "We are not choosing nuclear weapons, we are choosing NATO."

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-not-considering-nuclear-arms-top-official-yermak-says-2024-10-18/

It does bring of an interesting (and somewhat scary) scenario where Ukraine does somehow have a few nukes.   Obviously, using them would invite an in kind response from Russia, but I suspect, as in most cases with other countries, they would be a last ditch kind of thing anyway. One wonders what Russia's approach would be if they did have them though.  I suspect they would likely give up the concept of total control of Ukraine at least.

In reply to aircooled :

"the 14-ton GBU-57 MOP is a 20-foot long GPS-guided bomb said to be able to penetrate 200 feet of concrete before exploding"

I can't comprehend that. Wow.

Apparently one of the minor issues with the GBU-57 is that it is fused to go off only when it stops moving, so it has been known to go entirely through the target before exploding!

This reminds me of one of the issues the Argentinians had when attacking the British ships in the Falkland Island war thingy.  Because of the rather good anti-air missile capabilities of the British ships, the Argentinians were forced to come in super low (to stay under the radar, a curve of the earth thing), and do their bomb runs super low.  Because they were super low when releasing their bombs, they needed to set delayed fuses so that the exploding bombs would not take out the dropping jet (they did not have retarded bombs with the drag fins).  The downside was that there were numerous cases of the bombs going entirely through ships and exploding on the other side!

I cannot find any bomb hole pictures, but this pic gives you an idea of how low they came in!!

I did find one of a funnel, but I remember seeing one going entirely through a ship

The Ukrainians have apparently come up with an anti-drone drone, specifically for the Shahed drones, and very importantly, much cheaper than the Shahed (and certainly any missile):

Sting — a new Ukrainian interceptor drone Shahed-136 with VR control and AI guidance, — The Telegraph

The FPV drone will replace traditional air defense systems to protect Ukrainian cities, the article claims. It develops a speed of over 160 km/h at an altitude of up to 3 km and is controlled from the ground through virtual reality glasses.

Its cost is tens of times less than the Shahed-136.

This is also one of their current methods (that's a Browning 50 cal):

For the other thing.  This is a very informative discussion with an actual Palestinian, who seems to have a reasonable take on the situation:

        https://thedispatch.com/podcast/dispatch-podcast/what-the-people-of-gaza-actually-think/

Some general take always (his opinion of course):

- Hamas was seen as an alternative and a fix to the corruption of the Palestinian Authority (who BTW are one of the likely future governors of the area) and when in power, they became far worse (never to allow elections again of course)

- Palastinians could be considered similar to the Iranian (citizens).  Captured by an extreme Islamist state.  

- Sinwar (just dead) may actually have been going against the general thought of Hamas at the time (or at least many), who were becoming more realistic about the situation and the destruction of Israel (and by extention the two state solution).

- Palastinians provided a lot of labor to Israel (this seem highly unlikely to return any time soon, trust is well gone I am sure).

- The Palastinians are huge pawns in someone else's game (the same could effectively be said for Hamas and Hezbolla, but the Palastinians, in most part, at least in Gaza, are unwilling participants)

- Also, and interesting perspective on UNRWA (heavily criticized by Israel for being complicant with Hamas).  They are there to help the Palastinians, but eventually Hamas effectively handed off all social responsibilities to them, to allow them to focus on the anti-Israeli part.  A bit of a learned helplessness situation.  It's also not hard to believe there is an amount of crossover (infiltration) between the two since UNRWA has to work very closely with Hamas.

An update from our Austrian friend:

If any of you want to donate to Ukraine's war effort but wish your donation was lulzier, NAFO has you covered:
 

https://www.wired.com/story/nafo-ukraine-russia-war/

Not directly related (or is it?)

https://mil.in.ua/uk/news/u-yes-planuyut-stvoryty-vlasne-rozviduvalne-agentstvo/

The EU plans to create its own intelligence agency

Should we break out the popcorn now, or wait?

This is going to be all over the news. Considering it's the Israelis, this is likely not a light strike.  

The Israeli Strike in Iran Completed – Aircraft Return Safely to Air Force Bases  

IDF Statement: "We successfully carried out a precise strike lasting several hours, conducted in multiple waves and across several regions in Iran, in response to recent Iranian regime attacks against the State of Israel."  

Military targets were attacked across different parts of Iran, focusing on two key Iranian infrastructures: the air defense system and the ballistic missile program. Among the targets were ballistic missile production facilities, surface-to-air missile systems, and Iranian aerial capabilities intended to restrict Israel's freedom of action.  

The operation involved dozens of fighter jets, refueling aircraft, and intelligence planes, with immediate rescue readiness deep within enemy territory.  

The strike was conducted over a distance of more than 1,600 kilometers.  

Still a bit unclear what the exact situation is in the Kursk area.  The Ukrainians may have done some counter attacking.  Russian seem to be spending large amounts of bodies there and continue to advance slowly in other areas.  It has the looks to maybe be a big press to get as much as they can before the winter (?).  I can't imagine this is a sustainable pace.  The casualties are piling up, with a seemingly never ending ability to just take it (Ukrainian source):

Russia Lost 10,000 Troops in a Single Week: Kyiv

Russia sustained more than 10,000 casualties in a week, according to statistics from Ukraine's military, with the fast-approaching winter season unlikely to bring a lull in high numbers of fighters killed and injured in the grinding conflict.

Moscow has suffered a total of 690,720 casualties since February 2022, Ukraine's General Staff said on Monday. This includes 1,680 fighters being killed or injured in the past 24 hours, according to Kyiv.

This figure also brings Moscow's total casualties, per Kyiv's count, to 10,490 in the previous seven days.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-casualties-ukraine-fighting-1975746

The Russian unit that killed the Ukrainian drone prisoners, looks to have been hunted down and killed.... by drones.

Straining forever, but will it ever fail?:

Russia's economy and war effort is coming under increasing strain, which will pose increasingly acute challenges to Russian President Vladimir Putin's ability to sustain the war over the long term. The Washington Post reported on October 27 that the Russian economy is "in danger of overheating," noting that Russia's excessively high military spending has fueled economic growth in a way that has forced Russian companies to artificially raise their salaries in order to fulfill labor demands by remaining competitive with Russia’s high military salaries.[1] The Washington Post quoted Russian Central Bank Head Elvira Nabiullina, who warned in July 2024 that Russia's labor force and production capacity are "almost exhausted." The Washington Post noted that private Russian companies are struggling to keep up with Russian military salaries and are increasingly having to offer wages several times higher than the typical industry averages.

I also heard an interesting "theory" about the source of the war.   It essentially involved the US "need" to be in a war, and setting up Ukraine to get in a war the US can be involved in, and essentially blames Ukraine for initiating it by shelling in the Donbas region....  I would have to say, if this was someones plan, don't you think the US would done a MUCH better job of setting up Ukraine to repel the initial Russian invasion, since they did actually enter Kyiv at one point!!  As with many theories like this, they are certainly based on some verifiable truths, but tend to be interpreted and twisted in bizarre ways (and of course ignoring other very relevant information)

Some info on the effects of the Israeli strike in Iran.   It appears as if Israel has effectively neutered the Iranian air defense system.  Knocking out multiple (maybe 5) Russian S-400 systems (current top end in full production) and large number of radar warning systems.  Strikes to missile production and research facilities, but not the current storage.

F-35 where very much involved in the attack (there is a clear video of one flying very low over a Syrian city), and likely where highly instrumental in the air defense suppression.

What is of particular interest here is not the damage done to the rocket facilities, but it clearly shows Israel ability to spend multiple hours well within Iranian airspace (including strikes within Tehran), with their air defense was at full strength.  Some are saying the current state of the Iranian air defense is.... 10%.  Any Israeli strikes in the future will be FAR easier.  Also of note is that they are not going to be replacing those S-400 anytime soon!

The Iranian boxer can no longer hold their hands up to block punches.  Do they spit at Israel again?

Also of interest, there were multiple woman aircrew involved in the strikes, which is a bit in the face of Iran for how they treat women.

aircooled said:

I also heard an interesting "theory" about the source of the war.   It essentially involved the US "need" to be in a war, and setting up Ukraine to get in a war the US can be involved in, and essentially blames Ukraine for initiating it by shelling in the Donbas region....  I would have to say, if this was someones plan, don't you think the US would done a MUCH better job of setting up Ukraine to repel the initial Russian invasion, since they did actually enter Kyiv at one point!!  As with many theories like this, they are certainly based on some verifiable truths, but tend to be interpreted and twisted in bizarre ways (and of course ignoring other very relevant information)

Okay Chomsky  But seriously, there's a certain logic to the idea that the USA requires a certain amount of conflict - armed and otherwise to help maintain our international standing. Of course it will get very interesting as our national debt continues to increase as a factor in the equation. 

It would be nice if some of those Israeli munitions found their way to Iranian drone factories.

Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:

It would be nice if some of those Israeli munitions found their way to Iranian drone factories.

Binkov sez one of those factories was on the target list.

Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:

It would be nice if some of those Israeli munitions found their way to Iranian drone factories.

Binkov sez one of those factories was on the target list.