History in the Making: Russian Invasion

Some more info from ISW:

• The Kremlin's recent economic policies indicate that the Russian economy will likely face significant challenges in 2025 and that Russian President Vladimir Putin is worried about Russia's economic stability in the long term.

 The Kremlin recently adopted several policies that aim to cut Russian government spending on wounded Russian servicemen, combat inflation, and address long-term demographic problems such as low birth rates and labor shortages. These policies demonstrate that the Russian economy is not as resilient to Western sanctions, monetary constraints, and the cost of the war effort as the Russian government postures. These policies also demonstrate that the Kremlin will not be able to sustain the protracted war effort for years and decades to come while shielding Russian society from economic challenges. Consistent Western and international support for Ukraine's resistance on the battlefield will further exacerbate Russia's economic problems.

• Putin modified compensation promised for Russian servicemen wounded while fighting in Ukraine — a clear indicator that the Kremlin is trying to cut the mounting short- and long-term costs of the war and restore balance to the Russian economy.
• The Kremlin's efforts to combat inflation and high interest rates are also reportedly impacting the expansion of the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) and prospects for mobilizing the economy.
• The Russian DIB is unlikely to match the production rate necessary to replace Russian weapons losses under these monetary policies.
• The Kremlin is also adopting policies aimed at bolstering the domestic population in the long term, signaling mounting concerns over declining demographics and labor shortages that could threaten the sustainable operations of the Russian DIB.

Some more perspective. It clearly does not address some of the critical specifics that 02 has noted need to be defined, but I think brings up the rather critical time that will be the next few months:

Three key people have been appointed to operate the Trump defense and foreign relations portfolio.

All of them are odious in one way or another but all three of them have supported Ukraine to a point. They have largely disagreed on how Biden has managed the issue and the way its been done. Two of them at least are advocating an alternative approach based on their previous statements. 

One, the new National Security Advisor, has actually been to Ukraine during the war. Mike Waltz believes that only when Putin is faced with ‘hard metal’ does he change tack.

In essence Trump wants an end to the war, and he wants it quickly. His offer to Putin is likely based on some degree of withdrawal, some degree of territorial compromise from Ukraine, and bring it all to an end. Putin will be taken off the sanctions list and sanctions will be dropped allowing the Russian economy to appear like it might recover - however I personally think the adjustment will be vastly more difficult than Russia can handle.

Trump will be generous, but he can’t ignore European sentiment or British concerns, and he certainly cant ignore Ukraine no matter how much he might like to.

Ukraine will offer some kind of deal Trump can stomach - because he’s entirely a transactional based operator, he expects something in return for what ever he gives.

Ukraine is sitting on top of a vast sea of natural resources from oil and gas to titanium and uranium, high quality iron ore more besides. Ukraine could trade some of its interests in those resources for the aid - especially the loans - Trump could offer. 

Additionally the new administration won’t want to look weak - so it’s likely to go all in on Ukraine if Putin wont play ball, and supply it with everything it ever dreamed of to beat the Russians back and to the negotiating table.

Putin knows this is likely. He is desperate now to remove  Ukraine from Kursk so that has no bearing on negotiations and to capture as much land as he can before any discussions begin.

The problem is, its winter and he has just 67 days to manage it all in. His economic pressures are reaching boiling point and his economic projections are looking worse than expected faster than expected. 

Its looking increasingly like Putin is desperate and close to going that one step too far for too long. 

Add to this that Biden is surging the remaining $6 billion in aid so that its delivered during the very same 67 days, just when Ukraine needs it most. 

Putins position is looking strong on the ground, but you can’t help but think he’s stretching himself to the max right now, and something has to give. Ukraine is fighting hard and making the Russians pay dearly, and it has too keep on doing just that. 

Its not entirely impossible we’re at a critical juncture in the war and everything is now on a knife edge. What happens between now and Jan 20th is going to be fundamental to how this ends.

In reply to aircooled :

I don't find much to disagree with there (no idea who you're quoting, so I can't say if that's surprising or not). The idea of doubling down if Russia won't play ball is straight out of the Nixon playbook, with the nuclear alert in 1969, the mining of Haiphong harbor, and the Christmas bombing all being examples of this approach. It works, but it's inherently raising the stakes in a way the Europeans are likely to freak out about.

Yeah, I am not sure who it is either, just some post I saw.

Some more info on the Mirage 2000 France is delivering.  They are getting an upgrade, and it sounds like the pilots are already trained!

FRANCE TO DELIVER MIRAGE JETS IN JANUARY

France announced it is to deliver  six rather than three of the promised aircraft in January. Sufficient pilots are now qualified to fly them and inspections and modifications are ahead of schedule.

When the original decision was made in principle it was expected the Mirage 2000-D would be delivered, but this was a ground attack specialist. Ukrainians need a more flexible aircraft, with some ground strike capacity, but mostly for air defence.

As a result the Mirage 2000-5F is being supplied. These are being modified with updated electronic warfare systems, improved radar processing, targeting equipment for ground strike operations and modified hard points for ground attack weapons. It will include the French built long range guided bomb, and the SCALP-EG/Storm Shadow. 

This version of the Mirage can also be equipped with drop tanks for extended range.

The radar on the Mirage-20005F is considered superior to the F-16 as are its air to air missile systems, which have a far higher propensity to hit their target beyond 50% of their range. The MICA is regarded as an underrated missile because it’s more expensive per unit than the American equivalent and hasn’t sold as well, despite its effectiveness.

Overall most pilots would say the Mirage 2000-5F is superior in combat to the F-16 but both have their advantages. The Mirage is certainly more maintenance friendly and costs around $2700 per flight hour against $3600 for the F-16. 

Deep maintenance is required every 900 flight hours on the Mirage, and around 500 on the F-16 versions Ukraine has. The Mirage is well regarded for its easy maintenance and reliability, and is more robust on airfields and challenging road landings. 

The F-16 has better thrust and mid range manoeuvres suit it better, but in tight ‘one circle’ fights, the Mirage is said to be superior because of its tight turns.

Some other stuff.  This certainly sounds a bit more open to negotiations than previously (from Ukraine):

"Negotiations with Russia are only possible if Ukraine is strong and not alone with a killer," says Zelensky, emphasizing that the "sit and listen" approach won't work—Ukraine is a sovereign nation. On the U.S. and Trump, he noted: "The U.S. standing by Ukraine is crucial, and they must maintain this position."

Imagine the gall of a country that would invade another country and expect concessions for it!!!!!!!!

Russia will not start any peace talks until it returns its territories in the Kursk region, — WP

Russia might be in for some more surprises.  I highly suspect what they are talking about is an AI based image processor that can pick out targets itself:

The Ukrainian military is increasingly using “killer robots” on the battlefield — attack drones capable of bypassing various obstacles and EW devices, — The Wall Street Journal

Suppliers of drones for Kyiv are increasing their production to industrial volumes. We are talking about drones equipped with the Skynode system from the Auterion company in the USA.

The Skynode is a miniature fist-sized computer and flight controller. Its processor is integrated into drones produced by Ukrainian companies. According to information on the Auterion website, the "computer vision" technology makes it possible to counteract GPS jammers, and among other capabilities of the system, control of a swarm of drones and fully autonomous flight. Kyiv will receive tens of thousands of such devices.

Just saw news that Russia launched a wide-ranging missile attack, even hitting close enough to the Polish and Hungarian borders to put both of those militaries on alert as well:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c206l3qgnx2o

Biden gives green light to Ukraine to use ATACMS to hit targets deeper in Russia.

Link should work for non-subscribers: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/17/us/politics/biden-ukraine-russia-atacms-missiles.html?unlocked_article_code=1.ak4.IB0x.wC8gYijf7Jne&smid=url-share 

tl;dr They'll probably used in Kursk to allow the good guys to fend off the Russians and North Koreans, thereby keeping the region on the table as a bargaining chip. 

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EDIT: Reminder that this was another one of Putin's red lines. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_lines_in_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War

GameboyRMH said:

Sounds a little too much like it could be a backstory to this for comfort:

https://ghostintheshell.fandom.com/wiki/Sustainable_War

Actually I can think of some other recent developments that mesh way too nicely with some of the darker points of GiTS backstory for my liking...

I approve of this reference.

France and Britain quickly jump on board.  Things are about to get real busy with Russian air defense which has continually been being hammered by the Ukranian's.
 

France and Britain greenlight Ukraine’s use of Storm Shadow missiles against Russia: Le Figaro

France and Britain have allowed Ukraine to strike deep within Russian territory using their SCALP and Storm Shadow missiles. This decision was made following approval from the United States, informs Le Figaro.

https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/france-and-britain-greenlight-ukraine-s-use-1731872568.html

Those Storm Shadows can really reach out and touch them!

For some perspective, this was Russia's most recent attack, apparently hitting a good amount of power generation targets, including primary transmission lines from some nuke plants.

In other words, the Ukrainians are not likely to be terribly subtle with their strikes. 

As noted in the pic above the US changes are actually pretty restrictive (really only in the Kusk area).  It seems like the French and British changes may be more wide open.

The New York Times (NYT) and Washington Post reported that US President Joe Biden has authorized Ukrainian forces to use US-provided ATACMS in limited strikes against Russian and North Korean military targets within Kursk Oblast. The NYT and Washington Post reported on November 17 that unspecified US officials expect Ukrainian forces to initially conduct strikes against Russian and North Korean forces within Kursk Oblast and that the Biden Administration could expand this authorization to use ATACMS against targets elsewhere in Russia in the future.[1] The US officials stated that the US authorized these limited Ukrainian strikes in response to the deployment of North Korean forces to the battlefield in Kursk Oblast to deter North Korea from deploying more forces to Russia. The US officials stated that the partial lifting of restrictions aims to generate a "specific and limited" battlefield effect and will not change the course of the war. French outlet Le Figaro reported on November 17 that France and the United Kingdom (UK) have authorized Ukrainian forces to use French and UK-provided SCALP/Storm Shadow missiles to strike within Russia.[2] Le Figaro did not state if France and the UK had authorized Ukraine's SCALP/Storm Shadow usage only within Kursk Oblast. The partial lifting of restrictions on Ukraine's use of Western-provided long-range weapons against military objects within Kursk Oblast will not completely deprive Russian forces of their sanctuary in Russian territory, as hundreds of military objects remain within ATACMS range in other Russian border regions.[3] ISW continues to assess that Russian forces will benefit from any partial sanctuary if Western states continue to impose restrictions on Ukraine's ability to defend itself and that the US should allow Ukraine to strike all legitimate military targets within Russia's operational and deep-rear within range of US-provided weapons – not just those in Kursk Oblast.[4]

In reply to aircooled :

Also of note that it may be a "limited time offer."

When the new US administration is sworn in 60 days from now I'm guessing they'll revoke the order. No clue if the UK and France would follow suit or not.

Yeah, there is a lot of potential gamesmanship going on here.  The change is noted as a response to the use of North Korean troops, so justifying the only Kursk area restrictions (where the NK are supposed to be being used).  Restricting it to on the Kursk area also creates a pretty easy narrative for the Russians though.  Only allow it where they are attacking actual Russia and not where they are supposedly defending their (nazi infested) lands?  That's not a good look.

From a practical perspective though, the Russian seem to be making extra effort in the Kursk area and throwing an extra number of units and material there, making it a rich target area.

Although, as I am guessing, some sort of escalation will be required at some point to create more of a pain point for Russia (and this will almost certainly do that) doing with a potential timeline (expiration date) heavily discounts that effect.  E.g. if you tell someone they will be in pain for the rest of their life vs telling them it will only last 2 hours, it is FAR more likely they will push through and last two hours in the 2nd case.

There of course are accusations that this is simply a tactic to disrupt any peace talks.  I don't see that as realistic.  They seem to be missing at least one rather important party in the "interested in peace talks" group.  This of course could be used as a bargaining chip to remove as part of them (removing a pain point), so in that way, it could even help.

Reports are that the Ukrainian F-16's made a good showing in the recent Russian attack, downing multiple missiles.

Also, a major underwater fiber-optic cable between Germany and Finland has been damaged.  This cable runs close to the (now disabled) Nord Stream pipeline... something strange is afoot....

And of course, this:

Ballet star Vladimir Shklyarov who criticised Putin’s Ukraine invasion dies in fall from building in St Petersburg

Vladimir Shklyarov, 39, died after falling from the fifth floor of an apartment building on Saturday.

The fall was said to have been ‘accidental’.

Local reports suggest he was trying to escape from his apartment - after his ex-wife locked him in there at his request to stop him from buying drugs.

However other claims have emerged that this version of events reported locally is malicious and inaccurate....

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/vladimir-shklyarov-death-st-petersburg-ballet-star-fall/

Looks like the England and France are applying the same Kursk area only restrictions.

I am guessing the thought behind this is that they generally don't want to allow strikes within Russia, but since the Ukranian's are IN Russia currently, that would mean they could not use them in that combat area at all.

It's still pretty arbitrary.  It's pretty clear Russia is using North Korean and Iranian weapons well inside Ukraine.  Seems like that would be the most analogous comparison....

Not missiles, but still stuff that goes boom.

Poland will start producing nitrocellulose and gunpowder

The Russians began to put outdated engines on the Kh-101 missiles

Ukraine fires US-supplied longer-range missiles into Russia for first time

From the BBC

Noddaz said:

Not missiles, but still stuff that goes boom.

Poland will start producing nitrocellulose and gunpowder

The Russians began to put outdated engines on the Kh-101 missiles

 

I worked for GD-OTS as an intern for a bit.  Its kinda strange how few manufacturers of gunpowder and nitrocellulose there are out there.  On paper there are a decent amount, but they are mostly owned by a very few companies

Another undersea cable is damaged in the Baltic.   

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Completely unrelated I am sure... 

Russian spy ship Ford Econoboxed away from area with critical cables in Irish Sea

https://www.inkl.com/news/russian-spy-ship-Ford Econoboxed-away-from-internet-cables-in-irish-sea

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6 more F16s have been transferred from Denmark.

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Russia has changed its nuclear doctrine.  Which apparently opens up western states to allow full attacks, since Russia apparently considers itself at war with them.  Right?

I mean, for F's sake, if you want to attack the west or use nukes, just F'ing do it, and find out what that results in!  (I have to say, I almost wish a western leader would say that... because I am sure a lot are thinking it!).... 02 will clearly be giving me demerits for such an outburst in class... 

The constant blustering is very tiring.

President Vladimir Putin has updated Russia’s nuclear doctrine, two days after his US counterpart Joe Biden granted Ukraine permission to strike targets deep inside Russia with American-made weapons.

Under the updated doctrine, Moscow will consider aggression from any non-nuclear state – but with the participation of a nuclear country – a joint attack on Russia.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/19/europe/putin-russia-update-nuclear-doctrine-ukraine-intl/index.html

Apparently, in addition to sabotaging fiber connections, Russia has been screwing with European satellites.

Wondering what the retaliation will be from Europe.

https://nltimes.nl/2024/11/15/dutch-childrens-channel-outages-caused-russian-sabotage-six-satellites

The US, Greece, Italy and Spain are closing their embassies in Kyiv today because Russia may be trying one of there RS-26 missiles on Ukraine (possibly Kyiv).  The RS-26 is a medium range missile designed to be nuclear armed.  Clearly in this case it would have high explosives (up to 1.2 tons).  Being designed to deliver nukes, they are not terribly accurate.

This seems very much like a large insinuation that "this could easily be nuclear armed".  We have nukes.  Did we mention that?  That we have nukes? And that we can use them?  Did we mention that?  The nukes?  We have them?  We mentioned that right?  That we have nukes?...

Could such a missile be defeated by a Patriot?  Not sure. Maybe?  This is more the realm of the THAAD system (Terminal High Altitude Aid Defense).

There is also a general missile attack warning for Ukraine, so that is likely the more real threat.

Experts question likelihood of Russia using RS-26 Rubezh missile in attack on Ukraine

Speculation about Russia using the RS-26 Rubezh medium-range ballistic missile in an attack on Ukraine surfaced online on Nov. 20, but Defense Express considers a launch unlikely.

No official confirmation has been made regarding the missile's deployment.

In reply to aircooled :

In that case, I know just the guys for the job...

I think that there's a lot of positioning going on in anticipation of being forced to the negotiating table by the Trump administration. Both sides going "You don't really want what we've got in store for you". Have to say that Aircooleds post of 11/19 was chilling. Think of all the death and misery of WW1 because one diplomat was shot. Of course it's a lot more complex than that, but who knows  what actions could trigger the big one? 

In reply to aircooled :

The constant bluster is mostly for domestic consumption, but also to keep Western leaders off-balance and limit their response options. Putin would love it if a Western leader started playing his game of ramping up threats, because it would create discord in the West as domestic opinion would be divided, thus undermining that leader's position in their own country. Putin loses nothing by doing it, of course, so it's a zero-cost play.

It's also not new.

Frankly, I prefer the loud, obnoxious ones to the quiet, smiling plotters.

In reply to Driven5 :

Hah!  I was going to mention that, but I did not think anyone would remember it.  I guess I was wrong.

The one in the movie I think was technically a different model (?) but they all look pretty similar.  BTW - no need for anyone to wonder what historical information that movie holds... it is zero. Just a goofy comedy.

In reply to 02Pilot :

Like many things, it's not really Russia blustering that bothers me, it's the fact that domestic media essentially takes it at face value, and it freaks the hell out of a lot of people who have no context on the situation.

"Is there going to be a nuclear war"?

"No, someone just need attention"

Hope Vikki is ok

https://abcnews.go.com/International/ukraine-russia-icbm-launch-intercontinental-ballistic-missile/story?id=116085317