Thanks for this thread guys 
i try to read everything as much as possible, there's always something to think about 
Have a good time everyone!!!
Thanks for this thread guys
i try to read everything as much as possible, there's always something to think about
Have a good time everyone!!!
Yesterday we were notified that 240 schools across Hungary had received bomb threats. It popped up on my radar when the 20th or so school reported a bomb threat, and I continued to watch as the numbers climbed. Eventually our youngest's school was evacuated when it too received a bomb threat.
https://apnews.com/article/bomb-threats-schools-hungary-42eac619c61e406d3f22ca2f4d5d3bbe
Last night we were all pretty sure it was a russian campaign, and today we woke to news that Bulgaria, Slovakia, Hungary, and the Czech Republic were all included in those threats. Hungarian intelligence isn't reporting on it yet, but the Czech intelligence (which we hold as "a more reliable authority on the matter") is reporting that they've traced the threats back to russia.
Orban has claimed multiple times that Hungary will respond to any threats against it, so we're all waiting for action from parliament (if you didn't spit out your coffee and fall on the floor laughing, then I didn't type that with NEARLY enough sarcasm attached)
We had a talk with the boys last night. We let them know that both parents were aware, and watching the situation unfold. We told them we were a bit upset that the school did not inform the parents of the evacuation, but otherwise the teachers acted correctly. Both have cell phones, and both now cary cards with our phone numbers on them (in case they are separated from said phones). We're not really worried about an actual bomb threat, but this happened and we felt we should plan accordingly.
VikkiDp said:While i'm writing this, word came down that another good guy i knew died in the war...
I am so saddened to hear that, Vikki! It's just senseless.
Stay safe, and stay strong. These are dark times, and you are one of the keepers of the light. 
VolvoHeretic said:In reply to Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) :
And just think, it's all Volodymyr Zelenskyy's fault for not surrendering on day one of the Russian invasion (sarcasm).
While I agree with you about that sentiment, careful as that might be borderline with the politics. I don't want this thread shut down. It's a wonderful source of information and I'd hate to lose it
Sorry, I agree, but just like the Israeli/Hamas war discussion which lacked meaning without including the word religion, this one needs that word that can't be mentioned to have true meaning. I have deleted my comment. Sorry again.
An interesting video I ran across on the fall of the Assad regime and how it affects Iran and Russia's plans (very badly):
Putin must be feeling pretty damn stupid for committing military resources to the Ukraine invasion that could've been used to prop up Assad.
An interesting analysis of the geostrategic importance of Ukraine's natural resources in Russia's operational focus, and the problems their loss to Ukraine could create.
Russia races for Ukranian mineral wealth before a potential ceasefire
In reference to the above article,
It's bad news for the free world if Russia is a major exporter of 'legacy' energy (coal & oil) as well as seized Ukrainian 'future' energy (lithium & uranium).
I know that's a Captain Obvious statement, but I hadn't realized how important these mines are that are casually mentioned in battlefield reports.
Yes, I did find a map that I posted quite a while ago that showed the significant mineral and energy reserves of Ukraine. There was a lot in the south eastern areas. I believe they have a lot of natural gas reserves in the wester part though (I will see if I can find that again).
The current US admins approach seems to be cranking down on the sanctions for Russia, in particular energy. India is no longer buying natural gas from one of the Russian gas plants, and will no longer accept Russian (shadow fleet) tankers because of the sanctions.
As to why this was not done earlier, I think it has a lot to do with not wanting to drive up oil prices, but with (what seems like) the Saudi's willingness to bump up production (perhaps tired of Russia's BS) and the US's commitment to produce more (even the statement of intent without immediate action is effective), Russia can be more easily cut off from more of the world.
Gazprom (Russian natural gas company) is complaining about a lack of money and wants to raise prices.
- Israel is (likely) shipping Russian made weapons (heavily financed by Iran most likely) they capture in Gaza (where were a good amount).
- Ukraine hit another large refinery (clearly not helping the energy situation).
And... Belarus is having an election... I wonder who will win.
Obviously a joke, but the other candidates are apparently essentially clones.... (FREE ELECTIONS, it's a democracy, and if you don't think so, we will shoot you!!)
Different day. Same story:
Putin meanwhile continues to signal to both his domestic and global audiences that he is not interested in peace short of his full demands and remains committed to Ukraine's complete capitulation.
"Your keep saying that... I don't think it means what you think it means...." (that's a movie quote BTW)
Putin demonstrated that he is worried about the effect that lower oil prices would have on his domestic stability and ability to wage war in Ukraine....
...Falling oil prices would decrease Russia's federal budget revenues and risk destabilizing the Russian regime’s stability while also reducing Russia's share of the global oil market and economic influence on the global stage. Putin's emphasis on the need to maintain prices for the sake of energy companies' investments also demonstrates the extent to which Putin feels it necessary to cater to the elite in his inner circle who have personal interests in the energy sector.....
The Kremlin appears to be growing increasingly concerned about perceptions of Russia's economic instability. Reuters, citing five sources with knowledge of the situation, reported on January 23 that Russian President Vladimir Putin is growing increasingly concerned about "distortions" in the Russian economy due to the war in Ukraine....
Trying to stay out of domestic politics but posting this to combat misinformation that I've seen on social media:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-not-halted-military-aid-ukraine-zelenskyy/
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Saturday the U.S. has not stopped military aid to Ukraine after newly sworn-in U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced he would pause foreign aid grants for 90 days.
Zelenskyy did not clarify whether humanitarian aid had been paused. Ukraine relies on the U.S. for 40% of its military needs.
"I am focused on military aid; it has not been stopped, thank God," he said at a press conference with Moldovan President Maia Sandu.
One more, only because I seem to hear the term "Peace" being thrown around a lot recently...
In reply to CrustyRedXpress :
Peace and pacifism are an honorable and great plan....
...right up to the point that the tanks start rolling across the boarder.
As someone else used to say: "The enemy gets a choice also".
02Pilot said:An interesting analysis of the geostrategic importance of Ukraine's natural resources in Russia's operational focus, and the problems their loss to Ukraine could create.
Russia races for Ukranian mineral wealth before a potential ceasefire
Well, that's exactly what i was thinking and what i've already written about before 
just business, just money... Ukraine's natural resources is the reason of the war... not some phantom Ukrainian Nazi or NATO threat... any war is just about money
*my opinion only
In reply to VikkiDp :
Somebody smarter than me said "A war is just a mugging writ large."
In reply to VikkiDp :
I think natural resources and wealth are part of the equation, but not the whole story in this or any conflict. Putin's actions are driven by domestic concerns and managing Russia's geostrategic position, which is difficult when Russia is as weak and limited as it is in a global context. He knows that if Russia continues to lose ground (to the US, to China, to the EU - it doesn't matter) and prestige, he will lose domestic support, and thus his position; attacking Ukraine was a fairly desperate attempt to reverse the trends of the last twenty years. Now that he is committed, there's no turning back without dire consequences for his standing. Gaining control of Ukraine's natural resources is very likely more about bargaining chips for the negotiations that will inevitably come ("You want your lithium mines back? Then give us back our territory in Kursk"), rather than a specific money grab.
In the longer term, sure, leveraging the economic options of a state is a means of control. Just as Russia is attempting to do this to Ukraine, so is the US attempting to do it to Russia by pushing Saudi Arabia to lower oil prices, thus undermining Russia's ability to continue to fight. While there have been cases of states fighting to gain specific strategically critical resources (Japan attacking the Dutch East Indies for oil after the US embargo, for example), that is not the case here, as Russia does not lack the resources it is trying to control in Ukraine.
In reply to 02Pilot :
Good point, Russia definitely doesn't lack for resources.
We got a big-bada-boom in russia. That's eleven facilities in ten days.
I'm having trouble understanding how much of an impact the drone strikes are having on Russian production.
Does anybody have any numbers, or do we have to wait a month and see production estimates, or?
Bomb threats in the schools here again. 44 listed so far.
Unfortunately I won't be online to see this one through. I'll try to catch you guys on on the haps when I get back.
Have a good weekend, y'all!
Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) said:Bomb threats in the schools here again. 44 listed so far.
Unfortunately I won't be online to see this one through. I'll try to catch you guys on on the haps when I get back.
Have a goosd weekend, y'all!
Sow chaos is another country. What does Russia gain from this? I am too far away from this mentally so I don't understand this type of thinking. Meanwhile, somewhere in a dark basement in Russia someone exclaims "I know what to do! We will call in bomb threats to their schools! And that comrade, is how we will win!"
In reply to Noddaz :
It's part of a broad-based hybrid war approach. Sabotage of undersea cables and power generation, arson, other criminal activity - anything to destabilize and discomfit both population and government in Western states supporting Ukraine, and ideally to drive wedges between government and populace to weaken political support. Widespread bomb threats against schools create a lot of inconvenience for people; if it happens repeatedly, people start to ask "why doesn't the government do something?", and Russia has succeeded in creating tension between people and leadership that did not exist before.
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