History in the Making: Russian Invasion

93EXCivic said:

eastsideTim said:

He's not stupid, but he may be desperate.  There is pretty much nowhere in the world he's likely to be safe if he is out of power, so he needs to remain in charge of Russia for the rest of his life, or have it be run by cronies he can trust, and I suspect that could be a rapidly dwindling number of people.

That may be true but I can't imagine that Russian soldiers coming home in body bags, massive spending on a military operation and the economic hit from sanctions will in any way help him stay in power.

Didn't this happen before when they went into Afghanistan.

In reply to eastsideTim :

I don't think he trusts anyone, he only has people he knows know that they are better off doing what he wants than not.

Russia has put out a NOTAM (notice to airman) for live fire exercises all around Crimea.  The warning is for Feb 13-20.  The Olympics end on Feb 20th. So "practice" might run a bit long?

What does this affect?  This means any of the US surveillance can no longer fly near Crimea... nothing to see here... there is no man behind this curtain...

Russian amphibious assault ships are now in the Black Sea (south of Ukraine)... just practicing.

BTW the likely first steps of any actual invasion will be taking out any static air defenses in Ukraine, and because they are Russian, HUGE amounts of artillery.  

aircooled said:

What does this affect?  This means any of the US surveillance can no longer fly near Crimea... nothing to see here... there is no man behind this curtain...

Any surveillance or any air borne surveillance? I am assuming satelittes could still fly over.

93EXCivic said:

aircooled said:

What does this affect?  This means any of the US surveillance can no longer fly near Crimea... nothing to see here... there is no man behind this curtain...

Any surveillance or any air borne surveillance? I am assuming satelittes could still fly over.

Yes, both legally and practically. The US even has stealth satellites, one of which the position has never been publicly known to this day, so there's no need to fly an SR71 to sneak a peek.

In reply to aircooled :

Don't forget that Putin sent his generals to Belarus too. 

Looks like Norway, the Netherlands, the UK, Latvia, South Korea, and Japan are asking their nationals to leave Ukraine. And Nick Schifrin of PBS Newshour says that the decision in Russia of whether to invade has been made; the US expects it to happen next week. It's sad to see the situation develop in front of your own eyes that you'd expect to find only in history books.

In reply to tremm :

The US does not believe Russian President Vladimir Putin has made a decision on whether to invade Ukraine, President Biden's national security adviser said today in a news briefing.

Even as he sought to convey an urgent message that an invasion could occur at any time, Sullivan said he could not get inside Putin's head.

"I want to be crystal clear though. We are not saying that a decision has been taken — that a final decision has been taken by President Putin. What we are saying, is that we but we have a sufficient level of concern based on what we're seeing on the ground and what our intelligence analysts have picked up, that we are sending this clear message, and it remains a message that we have now been sending for some time, " Sullivan said at a White House press briefing.

That isn't what the National Security advisor said within the last hour. 

The messaging from the US seems a lot different from the rest of Europe. I almost feel like the US is trying to push Putin into an invasion because they know it would be destructive for him.

In reply to 93EXCivic :

RE: Pushing Putin into an invastion.

Putting this on a 24/7 loop should work.

It's a too-often repeated trope, but the US is playing checkers, while the Russians are playing chess; the Europeans are arguing about which pieces to use and who gets to sit on which side of the board. The US is making the mistake of taking Russian actions at face value right now, while the Russians are planning three or four moves ahead. I'm not saying that invasion isn't a possibility - it is, and it has to be to make the threat credible - but Putin has more to gain from several non-invasion scenarios than he does from going in. If all of his efforts to destabilize Ukraine fail, as they seem to be at the moment, then he has to decide if he can live with a democratic Ukraine next door. Given that all this has happened concurrently with a major crackdown on Russian opposition groups, I'd say he can tolerate it, provided it is not closely allied to the US or NATO. I've laid out several policy approaches that might help to avert open conflict earlier in this thread, but all require a level of nuance that seems to be escaping US policymakers just now. Screaming "The Russians are coming!" isn't really helping; even the Ukrainians are telling the US to cool it.

Well, if Putin wants out, that is coming soon.  Once his wargames are done, he can theoretically just back out and say "see, just exercises" (that lasted for months for some reason...)

Does that safe him "face" though... can he make that a win... 

In reply to aircooled :

I mean he completely controls the Russian media so saving face shouldn't be too hard. As far as I can tell the Russian media story is saying two things; that the Russian military is engaged in war games and exercises and two that the west is trying to provoke Russia.

US sending 3000 additional troops to Poland now.

Is it cynical to say that it looks like we barged our way out of that Afghanistan mire just in time to start shoehorning our way into a fresh one? 

If this was a threat to NATO we already have forces in Germany for that. Or if we're looking for a way to energize domestic industry, what better way than the threat (hopefully not reality) of a new war against a world power? I don't see how we profit by posturing for our allies or China, everyone knows it's an empty threat unless we want to burn it all down. 

I've been tracking C17 missions from the US to Eastern Europe for the last several days, most out of Pope AAF; there's at least one in the air right now. US troops are being moved in, but not in numbers that make any difference in the real calculus. It's just posturing to reassure allies and attempt to signal to Russia that the US is serious; the former is likely to be more successful than the latter.

As far as saving face, Putin doesn't have to do a lot of heavy lifting here. There was a WSJ article a few days ago that focused on the fact that many (most?) Russians are of the opinion that the West is pushing Russia into a corner, and Putin should stand up to them, though not to the point that it actually leads to war. More domestic focus on the economy and COVID. All Putin needs to do is make a lot of noise (strong statements! military exercises!), make sure it gets coverage in Russian media (not difficult), and claim victory (as long as the US doesn't launch an offensive toward Moscow, it's a win). It's not like Ukraine is going to join NATO any time soon; it's enough to keep it semi-isolated from the West.

STM317 said:

US sending 3000 additional troops to Poland now.

I have no expertise in international diplomacy, I'm sure O2Pilot's left pinky finger knows more than all of me does about this but sending troops to anywhere other then the Ukraine seems like a signal that we'll stand down.

Call me a fool but instructing the fire department to protect the house that's next door to the one that's burning is an omission that we won't be putting out the fire.    

RX Reven' said:

STM317 said:

US sending 3000 additional troops to Poland now.

I have no expertise in international diplomacy, I'm sure O2Pilot's left pinky finger knows more than all of me does about this but sending troops to anywhere other then the Ukraine seems like a signal that we'll stand down.

Call me a fool but instructing the fire department to protect the house that's next door to the one that's burning is an omission that we won't be putting out the fire.    

I mean that is something everyone knew already. Moving military into Ukraine is crossing a red line that would start a war with Russia. It would be like Russia moving troops into Mexico.

And unfortunately I think it serves US interests if Russia is bogged down in a bloody long war that we are not involving troops in

I wonder if any of Putin's army of US resident Oligarchs will be asked to repatriate to Mother Russia? I believe a list of these individuals was compiled in 2019 or so.  

While not all the names of people and entities in the report were made public, those that were included 114 senior political figures close to Putin and 96 oligarchs with a net worth of $1 billion or more.

The idea of moving US troops into Ukraine would be welcomed by no one: not the Ukrainians, not the Russians, nor NATO, and probably most of the US population. Further, it would be reinforcing Putin's narrative of the US as the aggressor, which would strengthen his domestic and international position, while at the same time increasing regional tensions. It would not have the same effect as long-standing tripwire (or speed bump, depending on your point of view) forces in Korea; because the US would be introducing new forces into an active situation, it would lose all credible argument for claiming self-defense in the event of an attack.

In reply to 02Pilot :

I just want to say,  "thanks for sharing your insight." I'm enjoying your commentary. 

In reply to John Welsh :

Happy to offer my thoughts, even though they're just informed speculation based on my reading of the situation. There's every possibility this thread will exist to discredit some or all of my views at some point in the future.

You have a bit more background knowledge than most, so you have some useful perspective.

Hey, if you could predict the future, you would be a witch and we would have to burn you.  

RT is talking about how Russia is pulling some diplomats from Ukraine, and a story on a past Chechen terrorist attacks (how they justified that last invasion).  (?!)

I found this.  Not the greatest source but it might point to why the US is so anxious at this point.  It seems pretty damn aggressive based on what we are all guessing (seems to imply full invasion).  Of course, this could just be an elaborate purposeful leak by the Russians to make the US look hysterical by reacting to it (the Russians are good at the psy / intel thing) and making Putin look a bit better if he does nothing(?):

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10503627/Foreign-Office-tells-Britons-Ukraine-commercial-means-available.html

Russia is planning to invade Ukraine on Wednesday, a credible intelligence report has claimed, as US President Joe Biden urgently arranged a telephone call with Vladimir Putin on Saturday in a bid to prevent war.  

According to German newspaper Der Spiegel, the US Secret Service, CIA and the Pentagon are said to have received intel of an 'exceptionally detailed' invasion plan, scheduled for February 16. 

The plans were passed on to Biden's government and discussed in a series of secret briefings with NATO allies.

They are said to contain specific routes that might be taken by individual Russian units and detail what roles they might play in the conflict. Der Speigel suggests the US is mulling whether to make the plans public in a bid to undermine them. 

But the West's fears of a war were today branded 'alarmist' and a symptom of American 'hysteria.'

Russia's foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova wrote on Telegram: 'The White House's hysteria is more revealing than ever. The Anglo-Saxons need a war. At all cost. 

'The provocations, disinformation and the threats are their favourite method for resolving their own problems.'  

The White House confirmed that Biden and Putin would discuss the crisis by phone today - just hours after thousands of Brits and Americans were warned to get out of Ukraine while they still can, as tensions reached boiling point. 

The warning came amid fears that Putin could launch an 'aerial bombardment' of Kiev, risking a high civilian death toll.  

Several other countries have now told their citizens to leave the country, including Belgium, who on Saturday warned there would be 'no guarantee of evacuation' following a 'sudden deterioration', as 'communication links including internet and telephone lines could be seriously affected' and air travel hampered.  

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken today warned that the crisis had reached a 'pivotal moment', adding that there continues to be 'very troubling signs of Russian escalation', including new forces arriving around Ukraine's borders.

Images released Saturday show Russian and Belarusian forces testing multiple rocket launchers mounted on snow camouflaged trucks, while a major Russian sea drill was launched in the Black Sea.  

But despite the sabre-rattling drills, Russia's ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov told Newsweek magazine that the US warnings of an invasion were 'alarmist' and repeated that his country was 'not going to attack anyone.' 

Tobias Ellwood, however, the chairman of the Defence Select Committee, branded the Ukraine crisis 'our Cuban missile crisis moment' as he called for British-led NATO divisions to be in the country.

The Conservative MP told Times Radio on Saturday: 'An invasion is imminent. Once that happens, because of the grain the comes out of Ukraine for the world, (that will) affect food prices across the world.

'Oil and gas prices will be affected as well, and European security will then be threatened further, so we have to ask ourselves, what should we do instead?

'What are the calculations, and yes, there is this looking Putin in the eye wondering what would happen.

'This is our Cuban missile crisis moment'.

He said the consequences of allowing Ukraine to fall would see a 'new era of instability with a Russia and China axis developing' while the West is 'shrinking in size' and authoritarianism is on the rise. 

Here's my question: does anyone seriously think the Russians started this whole thing without an "'exceptionally detailed' invasion plan"? The Russians plan everything to the nth degree - cuts down on the need for dangerous independent thinking and initiative on the part of field officers. Take a look at this discussion of Soviet military mapping during the Cold War for a sense of just how detail-oriented Russian planning can be.

My money's on Russian manipulation of the narrative, while leaving the option for invasion open (as is necessary to maintain this approach). Think of the possible outcomes: 1) US and NATO get scared enough to offer some sort of guarantees regarding future dispositions - Putin wins; 2) US continues to threaten massive sanctions and look like a threat to Russia - Putin wins; 3) Russia conducts exercises, then sends troops home, defuses conflict after show of force - Putin wins; 4) Russia invades Ukraine, US and EU impose threatened sanctions - Putin wins, at least in the short term, but probably loses long term. Almost anything is better for Putin's future standing than actually invading Ukraine.

I think we should just let Ukraine into nato. Call his bluff and tell him to pound sand.  And then impose the sanctions.  Being too agressive is bad. Being too passive is bad 

And letting Ukraine into NATO isn't aggressive? Short of lobbing a few nukes into Putin's bedroom, I can't think of too many options that would be more aggressive than that. Plus, if you do it and don't strike first, Ukraine becomes party to Article 5, which means that when the Russians do come across the frontier - and they will if NATO so much as hints that Ukrainian accession is imminent - then the rest of NATO is drawn into a shooting war whether they like it or not. Or they can refuse to assist, in which case the whole North Atlantic treaty becomes functionally null and void. I don't think this is a practical option in the current circumstances.