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ProDarwin
ProDarwin UltraDork
9/30/14 9:08 a.m.
Swank Force One wrote:
ProDarwin wrote: I'm really surprised at the number of you buying individual stocks. We should have a side bet and see who can most closely predict the value of their portfolio 1 year from now (must be 95%+ invested)
I didn't know how to do anything else.

Look up the symbols for common index funds. Here are some examples from Vanguard. You can do the same with almost any large investment company. You can also get into large cap index, small cap index, etc. Your 401k is most likely a combination of a few different indexes - no individual stocks.

VOO (S&P 500 Index): https://www.google.com/finance?q=VOO&ei=HrgqVJieHeXcsAeqgYGgDQ VTSMX (Total Market): https://www.google.com/finance?q=vtsmx&ei=TLgqVLDINsi5sQeBnoDYBQ VNQ (REIT): https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSEARCA%3AVNQ&ei=T7gqVICsG4rKsQetp4GoCg VBMFX (Total Bond Market): https://www.google.com/finance?q=VBMFX&ei=IbgqVJC5B8T_sgeTpIGADg

PHeller
PHeller PowerDork
9/30/14 9:51 a.m.

How can we make our porfolios public? I want people to see how miserable I'm doing but also would like to see what the leaders choose.

Swank Force One
Swank Force One MegaDork
9/30/14 9:51 a.m.

Believe that's game-wide, not something you can change.

GameboyRMH
GameboyRMH GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
9/30/14 10:32 a.m.

I'd be OK with making portfolios public, but I guess we could share them at the end of the game anyway.

JamesMcD
JamesMcD Dork
9/30/14 10:37 a.m.

I agree that it would be interesting to see other's portfolios, but that sorta screws up the game aspect.

PHeller
PHeller PowerDork
9/30/14 1:02 p.m.

I dunno...it would kinda tick me off if someone made a gazillion dollars more than the rest of us but kept his secrets. The whole idea is for us to learn, not just demonstrate how awesome an investor we are.

GameboyRMH
GameboyRMH GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
9/30/14 1:08 p.m.

I'll spill my beans at the end of the game no matter what. No fun otherwise!

DILYSI Dave
DILYSI Dave MegaDork
9/30/14 1:12 p.m.

I'll play.

Swank Force One
Swank Force One MegaDork
9/30/14 2:36 p.m.

Been watching my projected stuff on Google. Up over $10k since yesterday morning.

Day trading seems like it could be fun if you started with a cool million.

SVreX
SVreX MegaDork
9/30/14 3:43 p.m.
CamaroKeith wrote: Oh and I have to say, 17 of us are signed up. That's a pretty good number! Certainly the more the merrier but I actually didn't think that many would sign up.

Yeah, but 4 of them are my family!

I think that gives us nearly a 25% market share!! Lol

DuctTape&Bondo
DuctTape&Bondo HalfDork
9/30/14 6:32 p.m.

I'm in.

yamaha
yamaha UltimaDork
9/30/14 8:13 p.m.

In reply to Swank Force One:

That's not a good thing though, it'll cost you more when you buy in tomorrow.....lol

CamaroKeith
CamaroKeith Reader
9/30/14 8:55 p.m.
PHeller wrote: I dunno...it would kinda tick me off if someone made a gazillion dollars more than the rest of us but kept his secrets. The whole idea is for us to learn, not just demonstrate how awesome an investor we are.

It is a game-wide setting that I set and you are right, the game is to learn. If I make the portfolios public, there will be the temptation to follow the leader. That's the "give a man a fish" approach and I'm trying to "teach a man to fish".

What I am hoping that people will do is offer tips. So for example, one of the things I look for is "insider transactions". An officer or a director of the company are not going to buy their company's shares if they are expecting it to tank. So how do you find insider transactions? For example, if you are on Yahoo! Finance, enter the ticker symbol. Once you do that, scroll down the page, on the left side you will see "Owners" or "Ownership" (don't remember which) and under that heading will be insiders.

aircooled
aircooled UltimaDork
9/30/14 9:03 p.m.
CamaroKeith wrote: ..the game is to learn...

Isn't a primary lesson that most agree on is that day trading / short term trading is a bad idea? There are too many entities that have way more information, power and lower overhead to make it practical as anything other then a legal casino.

SVreX
SVreX MegaDork
9/30/14 9:05 p.m.

Who said this was about day trading??

The game is actually set up to discourage day trading. I know. I tried.

I attempted a pretty strong position in a few penny stocks. Couldn't do it because of the trading limits.

aircooled
aircooled UltimaDork
9/30/14 9:11 p.m.

Exactly how long is this game to last then? I don't think most are interested in a 10 year long game.

Sounds like it might be good way to learn about the stock market, but not about investing.

SVreX
SVreX MegaDork
9/30/14 9:23 p.m.

1 year.

That's not long term investing, but it certainly is not day trading either.

I don't think the lesson is in investing. The lesson is in learning how the stock market works.

CamaroKeith
CamaroKeith Reader
9/30/14 9:26 p.m.

In reply to aircooled:

Warren Buffett didn't make his dough by day trading. In fact, I don't think anyone one the Forbes 400 made their fortunes by day trading.

The game lasts 1 year. In that year you can do as little or as much as you want. You want to make multiple trades every day, you can. If you want to make 1 trade on Day 1 and check back in a year, you can do that too. You can do something in between.

SVreX
SVreX MegaDork
9/30/14 9:35 p.m.

Actually, I am going to take back what I said.

I think a year term can give a snapshot that is very relevant to long term investing.

The vast majority of stocks are held in funds which are managed by professionals. (Mutual funds, hedge funds, pension funds, insurance, etc.)

The model for these long term investments IS NOT to buy shares and let them sit for decades. Rather, it is to buy shares and MANAGE them regularly, adjusting periodically (for example, annually, or more). Stuff changes, and so do long term investments.

I would suggest that 1 year is sufficient to see a microcosm that reflects characteristics similar to long term investing.

aircooled
aircooled UltimaDork
9/30/14 9:39 p.m.

You should allow option trading.... the game would be over in a few weeks!

(Option trading is likely how current "day traders" are operating, very dangerous stuff if you are not careful)

ProDarwin
ProDarwin UltraDork
9/30/14 9:42 p.m.

1 year won't really tell you how your longer term investments are going to do. The market goes through cycles that are much much longer than a year, and a 1 year snapshot may be a crazy 30%+ climb (last year) or a 50% drop (2008).

It will help people learn about the market though. The #1 thing I'd like to see beat into people's heads is: compound interest... but you don't really see much of that at all in a 1yr simulation :(

Swank Force One
Swank Force One MegaDork
9/30/14 10:07 p.m.
yamaha wrote: In reply to Swank Force One: That's not a good thing though, it'll cost you more when you buy in tomorrow.....lol

I'm hoping the game will stick to the dollar amount i specified, not the share number, otherwise i'm going to be dipping into my credit without the return rate to cover it.

I think. Or something.

Lots to learn.

Been reading up on shorts and options.

JamesMcD
JamesMcD Dork
9/30/14 10:53 p.m.

If the game limits the purchase of low-volume stocks due to the upward pressure it would cause in real-life, then I assume the game must limit selling for the opposite reason. Is this correct?

CamaroKeith
CamaroKeith Reader
9/30/14 11:21 p.m.

Oddly enough, I think it only limits buying but not selling. Weird.

And I don't believe you can do options in MarketWatch. Options can be like an insurance policy if you know how to play them right (I.e. protective puts)

CamaroKeith
CamaroKeith Reader
9/30/14 11:22 p.m.

If you did a market order, it'll buy the share number.

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