Teach me to be dumb in the stock market?

ignorant wrote: Full disclosure.. Most of my investments are in index funds or targeted retirement funds.. I'm not stupid with my money. I play with a very very small percentage of it. Now heres a wild thought... What if.. Toxic assets become profitable again.. You can buy assets once worth $2.7M for $30k.. .... Not all the mortgages are in default..

Go for it. If it's like the S&L thing, you'll end up making a lot of money on the toxic assets.

Basically, if people are feeling good and confident, I'd stay away because that means the price is high or too high. If people are running and screaming, capitalize on the fears and get stuff dirt cheap. Even if it does go belly up, you won't lose as much as if you buy a bunch of blue chippers.

MrBenjamonkey wrote: Find companies you like in industries you think will grow, or are currently undervalued, and then stick with them for 3 years. Basically, what Buffet does.

Another thing he does is the OPPOSITE of what everyone else is doing. If everyone is excited about buying, he sells. When everyone dumps off shares of BP, he buys.

In reply to SVreX:

Bingo. If you buy when people feel good you are overpaying. If you sell when people are scared, you are losing money.

It is also possible to be a bit too contrarian. Consider GM as a minor example. Everyone dumped it. For a reason. I bought some GM stock as it was going down, on a contrarian play, but I also sold the crap out of covered calls on it and came out even. WorldCom is another example. There are many. Very many. I considered BP, but it could very easily go like worldcom or GM, stock wise. What will happen to it has been planned out already. The problem is that The O and his buddies know what that is (full bankruptcy, sale to someone else at a discount, government (UK, US?) takeover, restructure, "it will be OK, just ride it out" and recovery) but the rest of us don't know what the plan is. So, we can buy BP thinking that "it will be OK, just ride it out" and it may well be, which would give us a good return on our investment, but what's the probability of that choice having been decided?

I think the key with BP is that it will be volatile for some time in the future. The way to play volatility is with options. Of course 75% of options expire worthless, so that is also a way to be dumb in the stock market, just like the question posed.

btw.. csx went up today..

In reply to ignorant: as I said.

triumph5 wrote: In reply to ignorant: as I said.

Indeed.... I was giving you a tip o the hat....

In reply to ignorant: Thank you. It's appreciated; day-trading tends to make one a bit high-strung.

In reply to triumph5:

But it makes your broker happy.

In reply to TJ: Yup, E-trade is happy.

triumph5 wrote: In reply to mtn: Buy BP. No, not kidding. And Toyota. Walmart is at a low and will rebound.. Ford. If you had asked a week ago, you should have bought Tesla's IPO, then dumped it this week. Unlike your play money, I've been doing this with real money since January, and am in the green. There are others, but remember, DO THIS ONLY WITH MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. DON't USE THE SCHOOL MONEY. One more TJX, aka TJ Max clothing stores. Back to school is coming up, and they do well. If I were you, I'd be putting that money in long-term investing, not touch it and let it grow. There's your retirement money--as odd as that may seem to you now. One more, railroads CDX. My opinions. Your money

Thanks for the advice. This is what I was looking for--I know that the market is gambling, and I know that I should bank on very little of it. I know not to use school money, like I said, what I'm using here is chump change. I luckily have school paid off and enough saved away for a rainy couple of days should anything happen. And again, I'm only 20. FYI, I was already ahead of you on BP, and have the majority of my money in the market in what I consider safe long-term companies.

ignorant wrote: If you want to make money find companies building factories in Africa. Don't listen to the "market is rigged" people, that kinda thinking will hold you back. Think.. "how can I get a piece of that pie"...

triumph5 wrote: In reply to ignorant: Exactly. Like, whose making the components in the Droid, i phones/Pad; who makes the screens for flat screen TVs, Try to get ahead of the curve. The company that built the Blow Out Preventer (that didn't) in the Gulf. Why were they designing and now building a BOP with 4X the pressure capability than current blow out preventers? You know they are going to be selling those to ANYONE who wants to drill in the Gulf oor off Egypt in the future.

How do I figure that out? I assume google would be a good place to start?

Toyman01 wrote: The smartest investment I ever made was in myself. I pulled every cent I had in the market out 5 years ago to open a company. The first year I doubled my money, the next I doubled it again. If I had stayed in the market...you do the math. Any investing I do in the future will be local, with the guy like me trying to get ahead in the world and willing to work his butt off to get there. Publicly traded companies are a crap shoot. The people invested in BP thought they had it made until a drill rig blew up. Look where they are now.

Don't have enough money to do that yet, but I agree with you here. If I had the money, I have a couple idea's that I'd do on my own. I'm even talking with my dad, we might put one into the world.

MrBenjamonkey wrote: Find companies you like in industries you think will grow, or are currently undervalued, and then stick with them for 3 years. Basically, what Buffet does. I got into the stock market last year and followed this advice (I went after financial stocks, shipping and pharmaceuticals) during the middle of the downturn and I'm getting pretty good returns, 17% last year. Be patient.

Yep, I've already studied Buffet quite a bit.