When is it time to panic

SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to mtn (Forum Supporter) :

I am making an effort to avoid posting in this thread as much as possible. 
 

Your long responses look really defensive. Pay more attention to the part where I said how much I appreciate the vast amount of effort you have put in, and less attention to the part that hurts your feelings.  
 

Others have explained my position reasonably well, so I won't go much further. We are dealing with a many faceted crisis, and yes posting vast amounts of data only exploring the (largely unknown) medical aspects without considering the other facets fits a particular narrative. Especially when the vast majority of those posts are from one single source (unnamed, but not an epidemiologist)
 

It astounds me how much time some people have spent reading and posting about this issue.  I have a job that they pay me to do that has nothing to do with immersing myself in a pandemic. I'm trying to do my job. It's how I contribute to society.  
 

I don't sit at a computer all day. That may make me less informed, but it also makes me more productive and more valuable. I see the impact of so many people burying themselves in fear and the unknown. My opinion is that the impact is far worse than the problem. The "cure" is worse than the disease. 
 

If you are looking for lots more feedback from me so we can debate, it's not gonna happen. I'm out here doing my job as best as I am able.  And I'm deeply concerned about the corporate suicide mission we all seem to be obsessing about. 
 

Thanks.

Paul, 

You called me out (and that phrase conveys an edge that I do not intend, but I'm struggling to come up with the right one... Challenged? Critiqued?). I responded. Until my really long post on the prior page, I don't think I had a defensive post anywhere in here, at least since May 15. I went back and read that far, because I was concerned if that was how I was sounding. I'm just not seeing it, which is why I posted my summary of posts... Ironic, I know, as this post and that post certainly are/were defensive.

They're too long? Are we at a point where if it isn't 280 characters or less, it is too long? (I know you didn't say that. Hyperbole.)
 

You also stated that you "would be deeply interested in reading anything you may be able to put the same effort into that explored the damages caused by the economic impact.  Mental health.  Physical health.  Suicide rates.  Strength or weakness of the economic safety net.  Projected long term outcome.  This is the side of the issue you don't put much into." 

I gave my attempt at it, specifically because you asked. Do you have a response at all to the content of that post? I'd genuinely like to hear it.  

 

Other folks, am I getting butthurt here? I don't think my feelings are hurt, but maybe it comes off that way, and if it does I need to reevaluate my language here...

In reply to mtn (Forum Supporter) :

Yeah, it did come off as defensive. I think I have a decent model in my head of you, but it's woefully incomplete so I gave you the benefit of the doubt. You seem like a good dude, and you put a lot of work into that. I already told you I don't read it anymore, and Paul, who is also a really good dude, told you at the onset that he appreciated the work. I think you just assumed that when he called it one sided, he meant you were trying to weaponize the data, when he likely just meant the medical side is just one piece of the puzzle. Classically I will explain that by pointing to the suicide and sickness rates during the depression as evidence that a bad economy can kill as well as a virus.

OK you know what, time to be more full with this. The original post was "When is it time to panic?"

My wife's surgery (in Atlanta) was a nightmare. The hospital couldn't figure out the COVID-19 testing procedures, at one point a lady in a hazmat suit was trying to hand me a piece of paper through the window of my van, while simultaneously holding up a laminated sign that told me not to roll down the window. Wife yelled at me, lady yelled at me, then she handed me the paper. The surgery was delayed by five hours because even though it was the next day, and the same hospital, they never got the results. This lead to me sitting in a hotel room for eight hours staying next to the phone, roughly a mile away, trying to hold back the tears. Her recovery sucks. She's ticked off the entire time, and in pain, and my kids are not taking it well. She's found a hundred chores that need to be done, and every time I click off 99 I get 100 more that she's ticked about. There is a follow up appointment in Atlanta, but my wife doesn't want to have anyone watch the kids, nor use a single public bathroom or food source because of Covid19.

She has a legit painful respiratory disease and is sensitive to this, but she also reads the news too much. The data is flat everywhere for COVID19, yet every headline is saying "tripled" "Spiked" "exponential" and they are all lying. So she won't go out, but agonizes over stupid things like donuts. I tried to make them from scratch. Twice. Not good enough. She won't go back to church, and none of our kids have seen their friends in months. She asked how I was yesterday, it was the first time this year I think.

Half of my friends are shelter-in-place hide from everything fear mongers, and half are whacko "masks cause you to catch the virus", "George Soros caused it", "Bill gates wants you to get his vaccine" 5G crazies.

Two brutal murders, video included. I tell me kids about them as they happened, trying and failing to hold back tears as I explain what has happened to these men. Now I have to explain riots and murders of police officers as well. The tears are flowing again. I don't show them the video and urge my wife to avoid them.

I start to work on the truck again, and hey, let's post some updates to my favorite car forum. Nope, even the moderators are out peddling hate. I'm being called a racist for saying I want to love everyone. I had a neat experience finding the right fluid for the transmission the other day that I wanted to share, but screw it, let's waste all of our energy throwing virtual bricks instead.

I'm not panicking. I don't panic. I am, however, very pissed.

I forgot. My last remaining grandparent, my maternal grandfather, who was my only father figure for years, whom I lived with when we were all but homeless as a child, and again as a college student for years, was found last night on the floor in a puddle of his own urine. He's alive in the hospital, and his vitals are OK. Nobody can visit him, and he's 1000 miles away anyway. My Aunt is up there still, perhaps the only one of my family with any idea of sanity, but she can't get in, and can't call him because either the phone won't go loud enough or they took his hearing aid or both. He probably doesn't even understand why nobody has come for him yet.

In reply to tuna55 :

I'm anxious too, for reasons I can't really pinpoint. I share your commitment to not panicking.

I want to see your effort on trans fluid!

In reply to mtn (Forum Supporter) :

I was specifically referring to your previous long post, which was definitely defensive.  Honestly, I only read about half of it, and stopped. There was nothing to learn. 
 

I couldn't care less about how long posts are, or what your word count is. 
 

As a guy who frequently says too much, I will say this... there is great value in conciseness.  It takes effort. It's hard to write with brevity, and it takes longer. Good points are lost in a sea of noise. 

SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to mtn (Forum Supporter) :

I was specifically referring to your previous long post, which was definitely defensive.  Honestly, I only read about half of it, and stopped. There was nothing to learn. 
 

I couldn't care less about how long posts are, or what your word count is. 
 

As a guy who frequently says too much, I will say this... there is great value in conciseness.  It takes effort. It's hard to write with brevity, and it takes longer. Good points are lost in a sea of noise. 

 

Fair enough. 

I analyzed the data. I used numbers provided by various sources, and also did some analysis to create my own model. All of the numbers are flawed, as it would take a gigantic wealth of resources that I do not have time for or even access to. 

• If you place a monetary value on life, our actions are saving us between $13.3 Billion and $2.3 Trillion 
• If you incorporate suicide into this, our actions are saving us between $2.7 Billion and $2.3 Trillion
• I believe these estimates to be low, as I believe that I/sources are underestimating the value of life of the elderly, as well as the average years lost

I will just say, and I hope it helps, I appreciate both Mtn and SVreX perspectives and posts. 

I won't say I fully agree with everything either says, and I am sure they would both agree neither can be sure they are absolutely "right" (in a overall all knowing seance), but I do appreciate the perspectives.

aircooled said:

I will just say, and I hope it helps, I appreciate both Mtn and SVreX perspectives and posts. 

I won't say I fully agree with everything either says, and I am sure they would both agree neither can be sure they are absolutely "right" (in a overall all knowing seance), but I do appreciate the perspectives.

"Seance" was a surprisingly applicable autocorrect. 

The real information is so polluted in the media (social, mainstream, etc) by misinformation and manipulation that you'd need a supernatural intervention to accurately parse it all. 

I guess this is finally real for me now, outside work disruptions for my wife and I, nothing about COVID-19 has really touched us.  Until my uncle passed away this morning from it.  He was 84 years old.

In reply to JesseWolfe :

I'm so sorry to hear about your loss. 

In reply to JesseWolfe :

Sorry for your loss.

someone posted on line that:

"As of today (4/26) there are 65 Covid deaths in NYC for people with no underlying conditions.

Antibody studies show that 1.8 million New Yorkers got the virus."

No we all know (or should) that statistics can be  presented to show anything , but do these have any accuracy?

03Panther said:

someone posted on line that:

"As of today (4/26) there are 65 Covid deaths in NYC for people with no underlying conditions.

Antibody studies show that 1.8 million New Yorkers got the virus."

No we all know (or should) that statistics can be  presented to show anything , but do these have any accuracy?

Apologies for the non-answer, but “maybe”. I’ve seen studies that appear to be from reputable sources that suggest it could be 2x the numbers you posted, but have been unable to find the actual studies themselves to see what the numbers mean, what statistical analysis was used, and what the confidence levels are/were. 

We also run into the POTENTIAL problem of “garbage in, garbage out”. Was the sample truly randomized? What antibody test(s) was used, and what is its specificity and sensitivity?

We have, however, just conducted a massive social experiment across the country that would have been impossible to do in any controlled setting, but will give us much better information than anyone could have hoped for with the protests and riots. So give it another 2-4 weeks and we will know a LOT more. 

In reply to mtn (Forum Supporter) :

I'd argue that the protests and riots aren't randomized either. It will definitely be interesting to see what happens with the virus, but I'm not sure the data will really give any clarity.

STM317 said:

In reply to mtn (Forum Supporter) :

I'd argue that the protests and riots aren't randomized either. It will definitely be interesting to see what happens with the virus, but I'm not sure the data will really give any clarity.

Oh, I definitely agree. It is not randomized. There will be some issues there - for instance, the virus has been disproportionately impacting minorities (I suspect due to lack of medical care, education, and media-reach). This COULD be good in terms of limiting the spread, because it is entirely possible that this non-random sample already has a high level of antibodies, as a group. It is also not controlled in any way. From varying weather conditions across the country to different protests seeing different levels of social distancing (from some, to none) - and for that part, we actually do have something of a control group in Israel (or maybe US protests would be the control group) - see the picture below. 

Ultimately though, the strength here is simply numbers. At a certain point, even if the sample is not randomized, when we have large numbers across the country we can still end up with good, actionable results. The reports that I have seen from the above post that I had were all with 3,000 people or less, and all in NYC. And I couldn't find the actual study to read it myself. 

The information I would like to see is how younger people (say under 35) are affected by the virus.  In terms of deaths, it's almost zero (very low), but in terms of actual affect, is it generally cold like, is it generally no affect?  

Clearly there is a LOT of potential for spread (mitigated a bit by outdoors, sun and mostly masks).  Clearly the big danger is still them spreading it to the older and vulnerable.

My guess is, the result of this predicted spread will not show easily in the statistics currently being collected.  Since few will have significant symptoms, few will get tested, and almost none will end up in the hospital.  There could be a secondary affect as they spread it to other, more vulnerable populations, but that's hard to predict and could be spread out over a longer time.

In reply to tuna55 :

Before your post gets lost in the shuffle I just wanted to say that I feel for you. This is a tough time, and all odds point to it getting tougher before things turn around. All we can do is our best to love and support our families and slog through it. Keep working on that truck, it's a good way to escape for a few hours.

bgkast (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to tuna55 :

Before your post gets lost in the shuffle I just wanted to say that I feel for you. This is a tough time, and all odds point to it getting tougher before things turn around. All we can do is our best to love and support our families and slog through it. Keep working on that truck, it's a good way to escape for a few hours.

Thanks dude. I appreciate you. 

Looks like I am never pooping at work again.

I'll pee with confidence, of course, because at that point I have a ranged attack at the ready.  But with a big hairy spider like that I don't want to be caught sitting with my pants down.

Which is a phrase that either has a whole new meaning for me, or I am so dense that it took me this long to realize it.

In reply to tuna55 :

I feel for you and you and your family will be in my prayers. 

I was in a similar situation in late April. My mother who has dementia, fell and broke her hip. This required surgery during the height of the fear mongering. At least it was local. Yes, COVID is scary, but to be blunt, "it bleeds; it leads" has been taken to a new level. 
 

 After successfully surviving a week in the hospital, my mom was transferred to a rehab, where she was quarantined for 14 days. She didn't make any progress until day 16 of the 20 day stint. Then she was shipped back to memory care where she was once again quarantined for 14 days. Between the dementia and the double dose of isolation, she will probably never walk again.
 

I have seen her exactly 3 times person in over 2 months and only during transfer between facilities and at a doctor's appointment. To add to that, my dad is deaf as a post so phone conversation is not working for my parents at all. Ironically, I had to be at the post op doctors appointment in the medical office that is literally across the parking lot from the hospital that we could not visit. I should be counting my blessings; that was the most time that I was able spend with her. 

I am with you Tuna. I am totally pissed at this situation. 

Checking in after not being here for awhile. So sorry to those that have suffered or known someone who has suffered greatly because of this. All of the protests riots and looting have made this pandemic seem to disappear quickly from many news outlets, but it still exists.

I don’t have time and frankly not interested in reading the pissing matches and chest pounding between some of you in this thread, take that crap somewhere else and stop hi-jacking this. 

In reply to Pete. (l33t FS) :

Aw, it's just a young Huntsman spider. It definitely won't hurt you. We get those in my house all the time. Fun fact, they can jump too. 

In reply to EastCoastMojo (Forum Supporter) :

I think the main reason I avoid spiders that big is that I don't want to hurt 'em.  They're cool dudes in my book.

As long as they're not crawling up my pants.  Generally they run away from the giant with the power to control the sun (flip on the light switch), but it's the crazy ones who don't that worry me.  Like the mouse we had in the building the other month.  It was walking funny and did not keep to the corners and dark spaces like mice tend to do.  Next morning we found it dead in the middle of the building.

Pete. (l33t FS) said:

Looks like I am never pooping at work again.

 

I'll pee with confidence, of course, because at that point I have a ranged attack at the ready.  But with a big hairy spider like that I don't want to be caught sitting with my pants down.

Which is a phrase that either has a whole new meaning for me, or I am so dense that it took me this long to realize it.

I have a lot of big nasty spiders in my yard.  I never worry about them when pooping.  Best argument about it is in the clip below...

Also - JesseWolf - Sorry for your loss