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03Panther
03Panther HalfDork
6/4/20 11:13 p.m.
mtn (Forum Supporter) said:
03Panther said:

someone posted on line that:

"As of today (4/26) there are 65 Covid deaths in NYC for people with no underlying conditions.

Antibody studies show that 1.8 million New Yorkers got the virus."

No we all know (or should) that statistics can be  presented to show anything , but do these have any accuracy?

Apologies for the non-answer, but “maybe”. I’ve seen studies that appear to be from reputable sources that suggest it could be 2x the numbers you posted, but have been unable to find the actual studies themselves to see what the numbers mean, what statistical analysis was used, and what the confidence levels are/were. 

We also run into the POTENTIAL problem of “garbage in, garbage out”. Was the sample truly randomized? What antibody test(s) was used, and what is its specificity and sensitivity?

Thanks. The rest of her statement put that into a percentage so low as to not even be worth considering, and asked "why are we staying home?"

At the 0.00something % she presented, hard to disagree. I KNOW over reacting in my area wasn't needed... know little about other areas.

The GIGO is merely one of the reasons statistics are so easy for presenters to bias.

We have, however, just conducted a massive social experiment across the country that would have been impossible to do in any controlled setting, but will give us much better information than anyone could have hoped for with the protests and riots. So give it another 2-4 weeks and we will know a LOT more.

First, not sure who we  "we" is. I assume a different "we" in first sentience, than in second sentience?

Second, I'm not entirely sure what you are referring to? Do you mean people massing together to destroy their own neighborhoods? There will be no positive knowledge form that.

03Panther
03Panther HalfDork
6/4/20 11:19 p.m.
aircooled said:

The information I would like to see is how younger people (say under 35) are affected by the virus.  In terms of deaths, it's almost zero (very low), but in terms of actual affect, is it generally cold like, is it generally no affect?  

Clearly there is a LOT of potential for spread (mitigated a bit by outdoors, sun and mostly masks).  Clearly the big danger is still them spreading it to the older and vulnerable.

My guess is, the result of this predicted spread will not show easily in the statistics currently being collected.  Since few will have significant symptoms, few will get tested, and almost none will end up in the hospital.  There could be a secondary affect as they spread it to other, more vulnerable populations, but that's hard to predict and could be spread out over a longer time.

I haven seen ANY statistics collected or presented that give me much confidence in their accuracy. (glad I have a thick flame suit!)

STM317
STM317 UltraDork
6/9/20 7:18 a.m.

The WHO is now suggesting that asymptomatic people are quite a bit less likely to spread the virus than initially thought. This apparently comes from data collected via contact tracing, where they're basically finding that asymptomatic people require very little in-depth tracing before the spread just isn't there anymore.

Pete. (l33t FS)
Pete. (l33t FS) GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
6/9/20 7:20 a.m.

In reply to STM317 :

Asymptomatic, but what about PREsymptomatic?

Cooter
Cooter UberDork
6/9/20 8:19 a.m.

Presymptomatic infections still spread it, as well as those that are paucisymptomatic.

03Panther
03Panther HalfDork
6/10/20 5:18 p.m.

That gave me a chuckle

Streetwiseguy
Streetwiseguy MegaDork
6/10/20 5:22 p.m.
STM317 said:

The WHO is now suggesting that asymptomatic people are quite a bit less likely to spread the virus than initially thought. This apparently comes from data collected via contact tracing, where they're basically finding that asymptomatic people require very little in-depth tracing before the spread just isn't there anymore.

Seems logical.  Asymptomatic people aren't hacking snot all over the place...

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
6/10/20 6:39 p.m.

And yet they essentially retracted that.  They actually sort of said they don't really know but it seems to be rare.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/09/who-comments-asymptomatic-spread-covid-19/

I know they have to be super careful about anything that might be implied as an absolute, but there would really need to be a rather bizarre unknown to make pre-symptomatic people contagious in any meaningful way.  If primary transmission is through droplets, and they aren't coughing or sneezing, you are left with non-sympotomatic coughing and sneezing as well as "wet talking" and things like kissing.  Those things can certainly transmit, but the rate will be very low.

It's just my opinion, but I will be wildly surprised if they find pre-symptomatics have any real meaningful transmission rates.

The only potential danger area I see is the fact that it seems like it can float around pretty well (e.g. ventilation systems) in some circumstances, but I suspect that is more in heavy "emission" and high viral load situations.

Something is making this thing more transmissible than the flu though (maybe it just floats better), I will be very curious to find what that is.

NOT A TA
NOT A TA SuperDork
6/10/20 10:55 p.m.
aircooled said:

The only potential danger area I see is the fact that it seems like it can float around pretty well (e.g. ventilation systems) in some circumstances, but I suspect that is more in heavy "emission" and high viral load situations.

Something is making this thing more transmissible than the flu though (maybe it just floats better), I will be very curious to find what that is.

I haven't seen any reports from testing that precluded aerosol transmission although the primary means is likely droplets.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
6/16/20 12:23 p.m.

The amount of essentially useless info out there is amazing.  Common reporting of total cases is ridiculous unless you are testing EVERYONE.  Anyway, the governor of CA actually made a good point (!) when asked why we are continuing to re-open with ever rising reported cases.  He pointed to the positive test rate (essentially controlling for the amount of testing), which has remained flat for a while.  So... I looked for that info, which is presented very well on these two pages:

Larger views, per state or whole country:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/usa

Smaller views, lists of states:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/tracker/overview

E.g.  CA (the spike is likely testing availability and sick people running out to get tested):

  

Arizona has a bit of an issue.  Of note Memorial day was the May 25th and the "large social gathernings" began a few days later.

Florida is also showing a bit of bad trend:

Here is more of a summary view from the other site of the West:

Overall US:

New York is an interesting one also:

 

So... a bit of a different perspective, and I think a more realistic "where we are at" perspective.

 

Of note:  The positive testing rate is likely highly biased by self selection (the sick are much more likely to get tested), so that percentage rate does NOT likely represent anywhere near the actual infection percentage.  I would expect it to be low in heavily hit areas since few are likely retested and high in lightly hit areas compared to actual total infected (or have been infected)

bobzilla
bobzilla MegaDork
6/16/20 12:26 p.m.

Arizona and florida are going to be an issue because of their demographic. Older people with health issues. 

Mndsm
Mndsm MegaDork
6/16/20 12:31 p.m.
bobzilla said:

Arizona and florida are going to be an issue because of their demographic. Older people with health issues. 

That and the inability of people to stay the berkeley at home. Florida's gone so far as to say "If you're from xxxx do not come here" and I saw all of those groups at Publix, yesterday. Not observing any sort of social distancing. The amount of disrespect for anyone here is staggering. 

 

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
6/16/20 12:35 p.m.

Yeah, the one stat that is generally easy to find is deaths, which will show give you a good idea of the "danger" of the situation.  Those have been pretty low for while.

I would still REALLY like to see some stats on those that get "really sick".

Your chances of dying are pretty low at this point (assuming reasonable behavior), but the danger of getting "really sick" are not known, or shown.  THAT stat I think would be useful to get people to act reasonably.  I suspect that stat might be highly correlated with age (and obviously general health).

californiamilleghia
californiamilleghia Dork
6/16/20 12:48 p.m.
aircooled said:

Yeah, the one stat that is generally easy to find is deaths, which will show give you a good idea of the "danger" of the situation.  Those have been pretty low for while.

I would still REALLY like to see some stats on those that get "really sick".

Your chances of dying are pretty low at this point (assuming reasonable behavior), but the danger of getting "really sick" are not known, or shown.  THAT stat I think would be useful to get people to act reasonably.  I suspect that stat might be highly correlated with age (and obviously general health).

I agree , you hear stories of younger people getting Covid and it taking a week or two for recovery , 

the younger people may not die from it but it kicks their bu tt  pretty hard , 

We have a  large part of under 40 year olds thinking they are "exempt" from  all of this  but  its mostly that they will probably not die from it , 

Stay safe ......for the people around you too.....

californiamilleghia
californiamilleghia Dork
6/16/20 12:49 p.m.

Fueled by Caffeine
Fueled by Caffeine MegaDork
6/17/20 8:28 a.m.

In reply to aircooled :

silly arguement from me..  but..  Information is never useless.. It always tells you somehting..

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
6/17/20 10:12 a.m.

Oh, I agree, useful for me, but there are WAY to many people in the world who don't know how to interpret data properly.

(I am the the guy that looks at RT.com and Chinese State News for perspective, so yes, I like bad info also)

The0retical (Forum Supporter)
The0retical (Forum Supporter) UberDork
6/17/20 10:21 a.m.

In reply to aircooled :

You have to look up the hospitalization data by state. Most of them have demographic info that goes with it as well. For some reason the CDC doesn't seem to see fit to demand that information be reported.

Like so for New York

Arizona

Texas

Then there are states like Pennsylvania which, for some reason, are only counting the number of cases and deaths. There doesn't appear to be hospitalization data readily available.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
6/17/20 10:43 a.m.

Yes, those are much more informative. Well, I could only easily find the age breakdown on the NY and AZ site (TX may have it, but it's not obvious).  The other very important factor missing (even from those) is underlying conditions.  I think we can say with some certainly that age and underlying conditions are critical to the affect, and yet neither are generally reported.

The AZ site does show some underlying condition information, along with age breakdowns, but does not relate it to outcome (e.g. no symptoms, hospitalization, death), just cases, so it's pretty useless.  Argh.

I have noticed the quality of reporting varies wildly by state, some don't even report basic info.

I will use the two words that seem to be lost in these sort of things:  Quantify and Operationalize.   You cannot fix, what you cannot (or don't measure).  You cannot expect to develop a proper response to something when you don't even know what is actually happening in the thing you are trying to fix!  It's like statisticians don't even exist anymore (I am no expert BTW).

To be fair, I think it has been said what the vulnerable populations are (or suspected to be), but having actual useful numbers and data on it (and presenting it of course) WOULD BE USEFUL!  (argh again)

STM317
STM317 UltraDork
6/17/20 11:21 a.m.

The Johns Hopkins data in the graphs shown all comes from The Covid Tracking Project, which has been compiling data from individual states (and the US as a whole), and also monitoring data quality by state.

The biggest thing for me is that they let you see historical data rather than only the most recent update, so if you wanted to monitor the change over time in something like tests performed, % positive, ICU usage, etc you can do that. The biggest drawback is that they don't compile that data into pretty graphs that are quickly and easily understood. You'd have to do that on your own. That part's fairly easy if you use their data in spreadsheet form instead of the website format

Toebra
Toebra Dork
6/18/20 12:59 p.m.

This post has received too many downvotes to be displayed.


pointofdeparture
pointofdeparture GRM+ Memberand UltimaDork
6/18/20 1:50 p.m.

In reply to Toebra :

Just throwing it out there, that video is basically a propaganda piece, made by a woman who is a known anti-vax mouthpiece on Fox News, has only held her license for a few years, and her "undercover video" absolutely screams "HIPAA violations" with the way it willfully shows medical record charts and audiotapes people without their consent.

InfoWars really loves her though (if these thumbnails don't tell you everything you need to know about the linked video, well...):

  

A number of employees at the facility in question have responded to her claims:

While it is true that some patients tested negative, those patients all had horrendously deranged inflammatory makers (with distributive shock on pressure) and chest x rays clearly demonstrating lung injury. In this case the responsible thing to do is to assume covid positive and give the available treatment. Speaking of which, all of these patients received an adjunctive anti inflammatory treatment consistent w CDC recs at the time so I’m not sure what her point regarding Plaquenil was. 

This is because you’re likely dealing with a false Negative test because these patients were often unintentionally swabbed too superficially (i.e. didn’t get oropharynx because people testing don’t want to cause the patient discomfort and also limit their own exposure, which is understandable). This was a limitation of the test itself at the time. This also completely undermines the notion that these patients were inappropriately intubated for conditions like “anxiety”. There was clear evidence of 
underlying organic disease processes and high flow O2 was often attempted prior to intubation when possible, but in addition to needing more respiratory support these patients also would develop encephalopathy and require intubation for airway protection. 

She makes the mistake of comparing a limited experience w/ covid in Florida to a different population of patients (much sicker) in New York.  

Each of her other arguments/points could be similarly refuted by anyone with first hand knowledge of the situation. You get the point. 

This nurse may think she is helping in her own delusional way but effectively she is type-casting an entire community and hospital as inept, inadequate, and ignorant. I wonder if she would have made this video if she was working in the established hospitals across in Manhattan? I’ve worked shifts I’m both ICU’s during this crisis. While Elmhurst is a public hospital and as a result may lack some resources, I can tell you the medical decision making was consistent in both and outcomes were similar. These were simply sick patients. Inherent in her video is a bias and prejudice that is damaging in its own right. 

But, here is Erin Marie… Firstly, Covid rule outs WERE homed with Covid positive patients at the beginning of this pandemic-why- because the hospital was 80% OVER capacity. Imagine-we had 152 patients on ventilators when I walked through that door April 11th. We still have original Covid patients in the ICU units-some that were intubated at the end of March. They are now successfully trached, out of bed to chair, and undergoing pt/ot as they should be. Truth-there are patients that have negative Covid tests-falsely-why because they had elevated inflammatory markers on admission. Huge cause for a false negative-clinically present with glass ground opacities in the lungs, and rapid onset of multi organ system failure. And, as you said-false negatives and false positives happen. In the case of my *** patient (Erin mentioned)-I can tell you more about that person than I can myself. Presented  to the ED with shortness of breath and a cough. No underlying medical conditions. Now, take into consideration-this is the melting pot of the US-there are so many ethnicities and cultures here-healthcare is not free and they are underprivileged and don’t receive treatment when they should… was admitted to a Covid med surg floor ( tested positive) on a nasal canula, to venti mask to nonrebreather to eventually bipap. Was proning during this time. He was also receiving hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin. Guess what happened next-had a MI-prolonged QT. That’s what landed him on the ventilator with renal failure to follow. He had a dialysis catheter placed, an a-line, and a triple lumen central line. Why. Because those are needed tools in the ICU-that’s a critical care patient-Covid or not. I don’t know about you but I’m not infusing levophed, vasopressin, and neo through peripherals that need to be changed every 72 hours on someone with poor vascular access and terrible perfusion. A line for ABGS and blood draws to be able to wean or titrate the ventilator and replace electrolytes as needed, and review renal panels for preparation of HD. All of these lines and tubes and we still with help of an Air Force prone team were proning my patient! 

Truth-Erin Marie is NOT a critical care nurse-she claims she is an ED nurse. She was taught how to inline suction, how to titrate drips, and how to open and insert the chamber into the epi syringe during a code(I’m pretty sure that must have been used in her ED career at some point). The night she videotaped and recorded my conversation and my patient was the night he passed. (Redacted for patient privacy)

Following the deaths of these three patients on that same night, CCU became a clean unit-there is no Covid or suspected Covid in the unit. Shoe covers are only worn in level 3 zones-not throughout the entire facility as she claims. What Erin doesn’t share is that the “dentist and ophthalmologist” working in the ICUs they have a defined role-they are the medical professionals that FaceTime family members at bedside. They are not treating! They are an extension of the nursing staff so we can provide more time caring for our patients and less time answering phone calls and talking to families…during this pandemic. What Erin doesn’t share is she was moved from night shift to dayshift on her own accord(it seems once she got what she wanted from her recordings) and shortly after terminated by Elmhurst and Krucial staffing for accusing a physician of murdering her patient. 

 

We were once called heroes now we are murderers. We are getting death threats and are told not to wear our scrubs for safety when coming to work. I worked with COVID19 patients since day 1, got sick, went thru emotional turmoil along with physical exhaustion. I will never forget  how much we sweat with our googles fogged up, had headaches and a sore throat with wearing the N95 for more than 12 hours running room to room as the saturation levels went down to the 40’s.

So many of us got sick and to have someone who came to make up some story and twist it is so wrong. This nurse deserves her license revoked. She puts the profession of nursing to a shame. She claims her private institution in Florida had no deaths related to COVID. According to her facebook she is from Tampa Florida which falls under Hillsborough county which had 81 deaths. The total population of Tampa, Fl is 392,890 whereas the total population in Queens, NY is 2.73 million.

This so called holistic anti-vax , anti-chemo RN from the ED who claims to have all crossed trained nurses when in fact she was being taught how to suction patients on the vent has convinced certain people that COVID-19 did not even exist and the solution to COVID is sunshine, sea water, hydroxychloroquine and vitamin C.

There is no cure for COVID-19 as of yet. We tried the plasma, hydroxychloroquine remdesimvir and more which did not improve some of these patients’ conditions. We were physically tired where I had worked 14 1/2 hour shifts but the emotional turmoil this brought upon us cannot even be expressed in words. We had to open up 160 ICU beds.

I can not even imagine how the lies of this person affected  those who are already grieving with the loss of their family members. We held a candle light vigil because we wanted to say a few words and have closure because of everyone who passed. So these are nurses and doctors who do care. People like Erin Marie Olszewski have no shame and do not care for anyone but themselves.

 

pointofdeparture
pointofdeparture GRM+ Memberand UltimaDork
6/18/20 2:11 p.m.

Another response to her crazy video from the non-profit Media Matters organization:

In Perspectives on the Pandemic, Olszewski promoted several conspiratorial falsehoods about what happened at Elmhurst that were later comprehensively debunked. Olszewski claimed that Elmhurst was designating people without coronavirus as having COVID-19 and then putting those patients on ventilators, where they later died; that Elmhurst resident physicians were “practicing their skills” with unnecessary procedures on ventilated patients; that the majority of patients admitted with breathing problems were actually suffering from “anxiety”; that Elmhurst was intentionally exposing immunocompromised patients to coronavirus for monetary reasons; and that medical workers at Elmhurst may have killed her only patient who was expected to survive. During the documentary, Olszewski repeatedly showed patients’ medical charts on her phone while she was being interviewed in a hotel room and also in footage shot at the hospital, with some information redacted.

After Olszewski’s Perspectives on the Pandemic interview was published on YouTube, it quickly made the jump to far-right conspiracy theorist Alex Jones’ Infowars outlet. At Infowars streaming platform banned.video, a June 10 reupload of the documentary filed under “Special Reports” has more than 570,000 views, with commentary videos on the documentary adding over 371,000 additional views.

Olszewski also promoted her claims in an interview with Del Bigtree, a leading figure in the anti-vaccine movement. A Facebook version of that conversation has more than 240,000 views and a YouTube upload has more than 160,000 views as of June 15 -- it was also shared by a QAnon account with a major following on Twitter.

mtn (Forum Supporter)
mtn (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
6/18/20 2:15 p.m.

Toebra, might want to look a little deeper into that nurse and the backstory. Aside from that appearing to be (to me, a layperson) a gigantic HIPAA violation, she's also a founder of antivaccine groups. I think she was also touting the use of Hydroxychlorquine, but I may be confusing this with another video.

 

 

ZDoggMD has posted a couple of "Debunking" videos on this. I really like ZDogg, but while I don't think he's had any major errors in his videos, I have found claims that I haven't been able to back up. So take it with a grain of salt, do your own research, but I don't really think that the video you posted merits much attention. 

https://zdoggmd.com/undercover-nurse/

https://zdoggmd.com/elmhurst-hospital/

mtn (Forum Supporter)
mtn (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
6/18/20 2:18 p.m.

Thank you, PointofDeparture

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