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STM317
STM317 UltraDork
6/19/20 5:56 p.m.
mtn (Forum Supporter) said:

Indiana has been looking very good. 

I wonder if a large part of that is due to the fact that Ohio, Michigan, and Illinois all locked down pretty hard pretty early (and Michigan's outbreak was, IIRC, basically "Detroit"). I'd also expect that most of Indiana's cases are in Chicagoland. 

No real surprises in Indiana's spread as it closely tracks population. The cases and deaths are both highest in the Indianapolis metro area, followed by "The Region", South Bend, and Fort Wayne. Basically the areas with the highest populations.

I would imagine that a map of Illinois might look pretty similar with some rural counties having very low numbers. I think the state's numbers are just heavily weighted by Chicago and their massive population in an air travel hub.

 

Interesting theory about proximity to states that locked down early helping to reduce the spread. I think Wisconsin is doing pretty well these days too, and they're also adjacent to IL with Milwaukee more or less being a close neighbor to Chicago these days. I checked and Illinois issued their "stay at home" order March 20th. Indiana, and Ohio both issued theirs on March 23rd, and Michigan issued theirs March 24th.

 

Fueled by Caffeine
Fueled by Caffeine MegaDork
6/19/20 6:33 p.m.

My allergies are super bad lately. Lots of coughing and wheezing. My wife things I have covid and will die.  Ugh. Some prednisone should clear this up. 

Toebra
Toebra Dork
6/19/20 7:20 p.m.
aircooled said:
One part that I found a bit strange is how emotional she gets.  I can tell you, coming from a family with an RN and a paramedic in it, they are pretty hard core in that aspect, they have seen a lot.  The only time I saw my sister a little shook up by something was after she was first on the scene of a friend of her's and his brother spinning in and crashing in a plane near her house.  The brother was dead in the back seat.

But hey, people are different.  She may not be cut out for that type of job tough.

My wife and daughter are both critical care nurses.  Both of them are what I would consider pretty hardcore, unflappable type of women.  I have seen both of them get pretty rattled on occasion.  Actually the wife gets all calm and totally unperturbed when seriously bad stuff is happening, cool as the other side of the pillow, really eerie.  After it is all over is when she lets the emotion turn back on, a lot of the time when she got home she would tell me about stuff that would give you nightmares.  I asked her how she could keep going back to that place one time when she told me about a burned up kid, how she got the parents to snap out of it and take care of the kid that was alive.  She said, "I am good at it, and someone has to do it."  Only time she had to step out of the room in the ED was when they brought in an old lady that looked exactly like her grandmother who was bleeding out all over after an MVA, passenger in the car was in two pieces.  The old lady in two pieces did not get her shook.  Saw her Mema's doppleganger and she had to take a break.  Freaked out the other people in the ED because, as I said, she is super hard core.

 

 

 

mtn (Forum Supporter)
mtn (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
6/19/20 7:37 p.m.
Toebra said:
aircooled said:
One part that I found a bit strange is how emotional she gets.  I can tell you, coming from a family with an RN and a paramedic in it, they are pretty hard core in that aspect, they have seen a lot.  The only time I saw my sister a little shook up by something was after she was first on the scene of a friend of her's and his brother spinning in and crashing in a plane near her house.  The brother was dead in the back seat.

But hey, people are different.  She may not be cut out for that type of job tough.

My wife and daughter are both critical care nurses.  Both of them are what I would consider pretty hardcore, unflappable type of women.  I have seen both of them get pretty rattled on occasion.  Actually the wife gets all calm and totally unperturbed when seriously bad stuff is happening, cool as the other side of the pillow, really eerie.  After it is all over is when she lets the emotion turn back on, a lot of the time when she got home she would tell me about stuff that would give you nightmares.  I asked her how she could keep going back to that place one time when she told me about a burned up kid, how she got the parents to snap out of it and take care of the kid that was alive.  She said, "I am good at it, and someone has to do it."  Only time she had to step out of the room in the ED was when they brought in an old lady that looked exactly like her grandmother who was bleeding out all over after an MVA, passenger in the car was in two pieces.  The old lady in two pieces did not get her shook.  Saw her Mema's doppleganger and she had to take a break.  Freaked out the other people in the ED because, as I said, she is super hard core.

Her getting emotional did not make me think twice, honestly. No matter where she stands on this, she is clearly emotionally invested. Everyone is. She sees either a massacre or a pandemic of a scope that she can't quite grasp, and that tested her emotional capability. At least I hope that is what she is seeing, because the alternative is that she is acting - I'll leave my opinion out of that one.

 

My mom, MIL, cousin(s), aunt(s), great aunt(s) (who was more like a grandmother), grandmother, are all/were all RNs. All of them have similar stories to your wife/daughter. For my mom, whether it was administering CPR with a surgeon right in front of her, breaking the stitches not 3 minutes after he finished performing open heart surgery, or being first on the scene (in a literal sense as well as professional - she was at that time the elementary school nurse) when a pickup driver had a stroke and crashed into the school - brains on the windshield - or... well, I can go on but there are plenty of horrific stories. Always completely unflappable. She talked about all of it matter-of-factly.

 

But when she walked in and found my great aunt on the ground, sluring speech, she was unable to function for a few minutes. She said that scared her - she'd never been shaken like that before. When my daughter was dying, she had been in hospital rooms with a similar situation before, but when it is your own, you can't handle it the same way. And the entire time my daughter was dying, all the nurses, all the doctors, the resp-techs - I saw 2 of them tear up, one time. Only once - and it was when, after we knew she was going to die, I got to hold her for the first time after 12 days of uncertainty. The cardiologist - who is someone I would give my life for, honestly one of the best people in the world - said "I'm sure its been a long time since you got to hold her" I responded with "Its the first time". That made him and the attending RN start to tear up. And the fact that no one else did, and that they didn't at any other time, doesn't make them callous or cold-hearted. But they have a job to do and they have to take emotion out of it as best they can (while still having empathy). 

 

Sorry, that got away from the topic at hand. 

minivan_racer
minivan_racer UberDork
6/21/20 8:36 a.m.
bobzilla said:

In reply to mtn (Forum Supporter) :

Personally I doubt it. When we started opening up several weeks back out of state traffic went through the roof. that first week restraunts were open I swear I saw more Illinois plates than Indiana.

Similar to that, I'm outside Marion Cty (Indianapolis "metro" for those not familar) but right near the border.  After about a week of things being open here but not in Indy, it became impossible to go anywhere without a wait from all the nearby Indy residents leaving the county to get haircuts, shop, etc.  Kinda defeats the purpose IMO but I have antibodies so it doesn't matter.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
6/22/20 12:33 p.m.

I am bit curious if we will see an uptick in hospitalizations (not that everyone is reporting that) and deaths as people (some who are less than considerate) go visit their older parents.

I have also noted how the news loves to report total historical cases.  This of course completely ignores anyone who has recovered.  What they likely should be report in is a 2 or 3 week rolling average to give an actual picture what should scare people (which seems to be their primary purpose).  Reporting total historical cases is only really useful for figuring out the penetrations of the virus for heard immunity purposes as far as I can see.

It's almost like there are no data scientists in the world.  Well, at least the news doesn't seem to know they exist.

SVreX (Forum Supporter)
SVreX (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
6/22/20 12:41 p.m.

I'm glad to be having supper again regularly with my 87 year old mother. 

Javelin (Forum Supporter)
Javelin (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
6/22/20 12:54 p.m.

My local county has more than doubled cases to 145 since opening to phase 2 three weeks ago. The COVID-19 Incident Management Team is suppressing information, the Sheriff refuses to enforce the Governor's rules, and the county commissioners are thumbing their noses at the state. We're testing at a 22.5% positivity rate over the last 7 days. This county is about to be a community transmission hot spot of epic proportions.

 

mtn (Forum Supporter)
mtn (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
6/22/20 12:56 p.m.
aircooled said:

I am bit curious if we will see an uptick in hospitalizations (not that everyone is reporting that) and deaths as people (some who are less than considerate) go visit their older parents.

I have also noted how the news loves to report total historical cases.  This of course completely ignores anyone who has recovered.  What they likely should be report in is a 2 or 3 week rolling average to give an actual picture what should scare people (which seems to be their primary purpose).  Reporting total historical cases is only really useful for figuring out the penetrations of the virus for heard immunity purposes as far as I can see.

It's almost like there are no data scientists in the world.  Well, at least the news doesn't seem to know they exist.

Agree with everything here. Positive rates of tests doesn't help us, as you're seeing a lot of people get tested over and over and over again (for instance, many nursing homes are administering an instant-test for employees upon entering the building). So sure, you're seeing more tests, but not more people be tested. That metric (not the data, but the metric of % of tests that are positive) is so badly tainted that you can't do anything with it. Similarly, the two best metrics (in my non-expert opinion) are hospitalizations and ICU admissions... then from there, various derivative metrics like % on vents, time on vent, average hospital stay, etc. 

 

As for an uptick in hospitalizations of people visiting their older parents... If they're intelligent about it, probably not. For instance, if both parties have been in relative isolation, it is a very, very low risk. If one or both parties are wearing a mask, also low risk. If one party went to a large gathering, then visited the other without masks on and in close quarters... That would be a bad idea. Around me, I've been seeing very little irresponsible behavior among those at risk, or those seeing people at risk, but I'm only seeing a very small section of the country at this point. 

 

Interesting article showing the efficacy of masks: https://www.livescience.com/hair-stylists-infected-covid19-face-masks.html. All of the obvious qualifiers that this was not a study, it is an anecdote, etc. 

mtn (Forum Supporter)
mtn (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
6/22/20 12:58 p.m.
SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:

I'm glad to be having supper again regularly with my 87 year old mother. 

It is nice to be reminded that we need to use a napkin, isn't it?

ProDarwin
ProDarwin UltimaDork
6/22/20 1:03 p.m.

Why is hospitalization data so damn hard to get?  I can't seem to find historical amounts.  IIRC Beginning of may here was 400, and its been pretty much linear since march.

mtn (Forum Supporter)
mtn (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
6/22/20 1:17 p.m.
ProDarwin said:

Why is hospitalization data so damn hard to get?  I can't seem to find historical amounts.  IIRC Beginning of may here was 400, and its been pretty much linear since march.

 

What state is that? 

 

Some are much better than others, but most are hard to find if available at all. 

STM317
STM317 UltraDork
6/22/20 1:17 p.m.
ProDarwin said:

Why is hospitalization data so damn hard to get?  I can't seem to find historical amounts.  IIRC Beginning of may here was 400, and its been pretty much linear since march.

Go HERE. Find your state on the list. Click "Historical Data" under your state's heading. It's just a table, so you'd have to put it in Excel or something to get a graphic like the one you posted.

mtn (Forum Supporter)
mtn (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
6/22/20 1:21 p.m.
STM317 said:
ProDarwin said:

Why is hospitalization data so damn hard to get?  I can't seem to find historical amounts.  IIRC Beginning of may here was 400, and its been pretty much linear since march.

 

Go HERE. Find your state on the list. Click "Historical Data" under your state's heading. It's just a table, so you'd have to put it in Excel or something to get a graphic like the one you posted.

This is awesome, thank you.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
6/22/20 1:34 p.m.
mtn (Forum Supporter) said:

...Positive rates of tests doesn't help us, as you're seeing a lot of people get tested over and over and over again (for instance, many nursing homes are administering an instant-test for employees upon entering the building). So sure, you're seeing more tests, but not more people be tested. That metric (not the data, but the metric of % of tests that are positive) is so badly tainted that you can't do anything with it. Similarly, the two best metrics (in my non-expert opinion) are hospitalizations and ICU admissions... then from there, various derivative metrics like % on vents, time on vent, average hospital stay, etc.  

Yeah, I didn't even consider that!  So much crap data.   I guess I know now why we don't hear from data scientists.  They probably take one look at what they are asked to work with and...

ProDarwin
ProDarwin UltimaDork
6/22/20 1:43 p.m.
STM317 said:

Go HERE. Find your state on the list. Click "Historical Data" under your state's heading. It's just a table, so you'd have to put it in Excel or something to get a graphic like the one you posted.

If I do that, Hospitalized shows N/A.  Only shows a value for the current day.

https://covidtracking.com/data/state/north-carolina#historical

 

I was able to find the data on NCDHHS website though, and I ran it through excel.  Not great.

mtn (Forum Supporter)
mtn (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
6/22/20 1:44 p.m.
aircooled said:
mtn (Forum Supporter) said:

...Positive rates of tests doesn't help us, as you're seeing a lot of people get tested over and over and over again (for instance, many nursing homes are administering an instant-test for employees upon entering the building). So sure, you're seeing more tests, but not more people be tested. That metric (not the data, but the metric of % of tests that are positive) is so badly tainted that you can't do anything with it. Similarly, the two best metrics (in my non-expert opinion) are hospitalizations and ICU admissions... then from there, various derivative metrics like % on vents, time on vent, average hospital stay, etc.  

Yeah, I didn't even consider that!  So much crap data.   I guess I know now why we don't hear from data scientists.  They probably take one look at what they are asked to work with and...

The quoted part here is not entirely what I meant - we are getting a lot more tests being completed, and they're not all on the same people. That is just one of the problems with the dataset. The obvious one being that you used to only get a test if you were extremely symptomatic; now almost anyone can get it (probably - I haven't looked much into that recently).

z31maniac
z31maniac MegaDork
6/22/20 1:49 p.m.
mtn (Forum Supporter) said:
z31maniac said:
 

It's going be very interesting to see how horrible cases in Oklahoma spike after this weekend. There have already been people from all over the country camping in front of the BOK center in Tulsa for Trump's rally tomorrow.

surprise

Maybe won't be as bad as expected since they didn't even fill up the BOK 1/3 of the way.......when they were originally projecting needing overflow space and possibly opening up the convention center. So few people showed up they canceled the outside speech.

ProDarwin
ProDarwin UltimaDork
6/22/20 2:02 p.m.

This is an interesting visualization:  https://app.flourish.studio/visualisation/2645529/

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
6/22/20 5:04 p.m.
ProDarwin said:

This is an interesting visualization:  https://app.flourish.studio/visualisation/2645529/

Nice visualization.

I was a bit suspicious the other data stayed perfectly symmetrical, then I realized they must have just divided the expected yearly number.

Also of note, the non-COVID deaths on that chart only represent 7% of all deaths. E.g. there are causes that a far larger then shown in the chart.

RX Reven'
RX Reven' GRM+ Memberand SuperDork
6/22/20 5:55 p.m.
ProDarwin said:

This is an interesting visualization:  https://app.flourish.studio/visualisation/2645529/

Neat-O, thanks ProDarwin.

SVreX (Forum Supporter)
SVreX (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
6/23/20 9:36 a.m.
mtn (Forum Supporter) said:
SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:

I'm glad to be having supper again regularly with my 87 year old mother. 

It is nice to be reminded that we need to use a napkin, isn't it?

She taught me to wash my hands a long time ago. 

bobzilla
bobzilla MegaDork
6/23/20 9:51 a.m.
aircooled said:
ProDarwin said:

This is an interesting visualization:  https://app.flourish.studio/visualisation/2645529/

Nice visualization.

I was a bit suspicious the other data stayed perfectly symmetrical, then I realized they must have just divided the expected yearly number.

Also of note, the non-COVID deaths on that chart only represent 7% of all deaths. E.g. there are causes that a far larger then shown in the chart.

A little disingenuous maybe but that's my jaded mind. 7.8B people on the planet, 300k deaths isn't even a blip on the map. 1.4M die from car crashes yearly.

ProDarwin
ProDarwin UltimaDork
6/23/20 10:12 a.m.
bobzilla said:

A little disingenuous maybe but that's my jaded mind. 7.8B people on the planet, 300k deaths isn't even a blip on the map. 1.4M die from car crashes yearly.

I'm not sure what you are suggesting here?  That it be ignored?  That people care too much about it? 

Out of curiosity at what point does it become "blip on the map?

 

bobzilla
bobzilla MegaDork
6/23/20 10:30 a.m.

In reply to ProDarwin :

I would say when it becomes at least a tenth of a percent of the population. It's being compared to the spanish flu. The estimated number of deaths were 15-50M when the world population was 1.5B and suspected to have infected 500M. We're not even in the same county as that at this point. 

Fine, I'll say it out loud: It's been blown out of proportion for the sake of clicks and money and a chance to instill fear into people. It's worked better at that than anything else at this point. Yes, I am certain this makes me a heretic and an evil person. We already know I'm racist and misogynist and shiny happy person in general, might as well make me a grandpa killer too. 

Yes, death sucks. But it's part of life. Is life worth living if you are in continual fear? Life is a series of calculated risks. Nothing is safe. There is never a zero chance of death, injury or dismemberment. This is another of those. 

I watched the local news this morning discussing the continuing downward trend of positive cases, deaths, hospitlizations etc and they were actually showing DISAPPOINTMENT. Then they of course followed it up with "but we aren't out of the woods yet. There is more to come".

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