When is it time to panic

bobzilla said:

aircooled said:

ProDarwin said:

This is an interesting visualization:  https://app.flourish.studio/visualisation/2645529/

Nice visualization.

I was a bit suspicious the other data stayed perfectly symmetrical, then I realized they must have just divided the expected yearly number.

Also of note, the non-COVID deaths on that chart only represent 7% of all deaths. E.g. there are causes that a far larger then shown in the chart.

A little disingenuous maybe but that's my jaded mind. 7.8B people on the planet, 300k deaths isn't even a blip on the map. 1.4M die from car crashes yearly.

To normalize this (and someone please check my work, and my data): 

• 1.4M Fatalities from car crashes is about 3,836 deaths per day
• The first 100k deaths from Covid took 78 days, or approximately 1,282 deaths per day
• The second 100k deaths from Covid took 16 days, or approximately 6,250 deaths per day
• The third 100k deaths, after most of the world had various provisions in place to slow the disease, took 19 days, or 5,263 deaths per day
• The fourth 100k deaths took 24 days, 4,167 deaths per day
• The average deaths per day has been 2,960. If you only take the average after 20,000 deaths (under the assumption that it has "ramped up" to a point that it is concerning at that point) is 5,096 deaths per day. 

Some problems with normalizing the data to get clear trends 

• Early deaths would all be in China. I personally don't trust their numbers. Could be way higher than is actually reported here
• China's early response was horrible (non-existent) followed by superb (in terms of virus control, not from a freedom perspective) - the whiplash makes anything hard to normalize. 

bobzilla said:

In reply to ProDarwin :

I would say when it becomes at least a tenth of a percent of the population.

And then what?  Should causes of death that amount o less than 0.1% of the population be ignored?

Car crashes aren't contagious (well, apart from catching one from the idiot who runs into you, but it's close to 1:1, and catching it that way limits your ability to spread it to someone else since your car's busted). An increase in car crashes doesn't result in a larger number of contagious crashers trending toward an increase. We would do well to avoid car crashes, but they don't carry the same fundamental threat of runaway growth.

In reply to mtn (Forum Supporter) :

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

I don't buy that math.  It pre-supposes no improvement in the COVID death rate from now until the end of the year.  That's not likely.

Car crash daily mortality rate won't improve much from now until the end of the year.  COVID daily mortality rate will improve.  That means the death rate will decline significantly as a daily average.

Doing the math like that appears to be trying to prove a point that is incorrect.  It is not a reasonable argument to suggest the COVID death rate will exceed the mortality rate from car crashes.

I think this comes down to the "no simple answer" thing again.

I would agree death rates in the US are very unlikely to accelerate as they had at the beginning.  In other parts of the world though (e.g. Africa, India) that might still occur.

In reply to aircooled :

Considering the overall health dynamic and general life expectancy, I don't think Africa is a good standard to measure by or compare the rest of the world.  And it is certainly bizarre to compare their death rate from COVID to their death rate from car crashes. (they have very few cars per capita)

Starvation and malnutrition are higher in Africa too.  We wouldn't consider that in US statistics on starvation.

It's easy to manipulate data when we include crap data.

SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to mtn (Forum Supporter) :

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

I don't buy that math.  It pre-supposes no improvement in the COVID death rate from now until the end of the year.  That's not likely.

Car crash daily mortality rate won't improve much from now until the end of the year.  COVID daily mortality rate will improve.  That means the death rate will decline significantly as a daily average.

Doing the math like that appears to be trying to prove a point that is incorrect.  It is not a reasonable argument to suggest the COVID death rate will exceed the mortality rate from car crashes.

Paul, I did not make that suggestion or argument. Bobzilla compared unlike numbers - Annual deaths from car accidents, and 5 months of deaths from Covid. All that I did was attempt to normalize the numbers. If he is going to compare them, we need to attempt to find a common denominator. I attempted to do that - if you have a better way, please, provide it and I'll be happy to run the numbers that way.

For transparency, and to get rid of the "Lies damned lies and statiistics" sentiment

• My data for this was all from the visual that ProDarwin shared, with the exception of 1.4M car crash deaths that I got from Bobzilla. For that number, I simply divided 1,400,000/365. On a worldwide basis, I would not expect there to be a problem with this methodology (someone please inform me if I'm wrong). 
• The covid numbers were from the data tab on The visual
• To determine the daily figures, I just did a simple subtraction from the total deaths of each day and the prior day. If there were 10 people dead on Monday and 14 people dead on Tuesday, that results in 4 people that died on Monday. 
• To find the first 100k deaths, I found the first day that had over 100k deaths. It was the 78th day of deaths - this could actually be an error, it could be much longer to reach that first 100 deaths. You could argue that it should be from the first confirmed case in China, which would mean it took 144 days to reach the first 100k deaths, or 694 deaths per day average. 
• To find the second 100k deaths, I found the first day over 200k deaths total, subtracted that date from the date that 100k deaths was reached, and divided by 100k. Same process for the 3rd and 4th hundred thousand deaths.
• For the average daily deaths, I just took the average of the daily deaths. Nothing fancy.
• I also included an average in which I threw out the first 63 days of data, and only looked at the last 77. I included this to show the trend.
• If you look at only the last 20 days of data, it is a better picture at 4,166 deaths per day.  

Happy to send anyone my very simple spreadsheet showing this. 

Now, for this point:

Car crash daily mortality rate won't improve much from now until the end of the year.  COVID daily mortality rate will improve.  That means the death rate will decline significantly as a daily average

I'm confused by this, somewhat. There are two ways this can happen: We limit the spread of it, so less people get it and therefore less people die of it, or we figure out how to treat it better.

• Is this an argument that we should be taking social distancing seriously, and wearing masks? If so, I agree. 
• Is it an argument that we're going to be able to treat it better as we learn more, thus the the mortality rate (not number of people who die daily from it, as I've been posting above, but % of people who are infected who die - different things, though definitely related) falls? If so, I agree, but in that case we need the above point to be true, otherwise until we figure it out the daily deaths will continue to be high
• Is it a suggestion that the virus is somehow not killing people as much as it was? If so, I hope so, and it is possible that it mutates to become less deadly (and indeed possible that it already has), but this one is wishful thinking.

SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to aircooled :

Considering the overall health dynamic and general life expectancy, I don't think Africa is a good standard to measure by or compare the rest of the world.  And it is certainly bizarre to compare their death rate from COVID to their death rate from car crashes. (they have very few cars per capita)

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-related_death_rate

I'm not disagreeing with your point that we are vastly different than Africa, and comparisons should be taken with a gigantic grain of salt, but they are part of the world (17% of it, population wise) and they do have a ton of car crashes. They're first in road fatalities per 100k people, first in road fatalities per 100k vehicles, and 3rd in total fatalities behind only Western Pacific(Asia, not including South East Asia) and South East Asia.

Bob, I do want an honest discussion.  I want to understand at what point (in your mind) it should be treated with what level of attention.

The way I look at it, if it did not receive this level of attention & coverage, things could be a lot worse.

Additionally, I don't consider wearing a mask and avoiding large gatherings "living in continual fear" anymore than I would consider wearing a seatbelt, using safety glasses, wearing hearing protection, or wearing a helmet "living in continual fear"

mtn (Forum Supporter) said:

• My data for this was all from Prodarwins graph

Just a quick note, please don't call that "Prodarwin's" graph.  I just posted a link to an interesting visualization I came across.  The sources for the visualization are listed on that page.  It appears most of the non-COVID numbers are directly from here, with further sources listed on that page (and they appear to be using the total yearly #s divided evenly throughout they year).   

ProDarwin said:

 

 

mtn (Forum Supporter) said:

• My data for this was all from Prodarwins graph

 

Just a quick note, please don't call that "Prodarwin's" graph.  I just posted a link to an interesting visualization I came across.  The sources for the visualization are listed on that page.  It appears most of the non-COVID numbers are directly from here, with further sources listed on that page (and they appear to be using the total yearly #s divided evenly throughout they year).   

Noted and updated

mtn (Forum Supporter) said:

Noted and updated

Still not panicking...

Hey, I'm not sure where you are getting your traffic fatality numbers from. 

If you want to limit to the US, here is probably the best datasource you are going to find. 

https://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/Main/index.aspx

if you take 2018 numbers for the US, its only 36,560 for 2018 (most recent year reported) and the worst year in recent history is 2005 with 43,510. 

Now, try that vs US Covid fatalities which according to https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html   

Is at 120,333 *at time of this posting so far. 

Now, that is comparing a whole year to not even half a year of covid, with some fairly societly drastic measures taking place to limit the covid deaths.  Its really not the best comparison, but even taking all the caveots, covid is hitting much much worse than traffic collisions. 

I mean, I dont want to wade into, start, or prolong an argument here.  Just trying to bring some data from less speculative sources for people to think around on. 

Panic is such a strong word.

Say what you want, but my family isnt letting up on the distancing and isolating any time soon. That said, wife is pregnant, mother in law staying with us is high risk, and our toddler has asthma..    

Hey, I miss getting out and doing stuff, but the risk just isnt worth it for my situation. 

ProDarwin said:

The way I look at it, if it did not receive this level of attention & coverage, things could be a lot worse.

 

You may be right.

...or you may not be.

did anyone splash out for private antibody testing?  OR get it through donating blood with the Red Cross?

https://www.redcrossblood.org/donate-blood/dlp/covid-19-antibody-testing.html

Apexcarver said:

Panic is such a strong word.

 

Say what you want, but my family isnt letting up on the distancing and isolating any time soon. That said, wife is pregnant, mother in law staying with us is high risk, and our toddler has asthma..    

 

Hey, I miss getting out and doing stuff, but the risk just isnt worth it for my situation. 

That's pretty much us. We went for a drive in the Miata over the weekend. Opining about how we can't wait to get back to a few of our favorite places, sit down and have a meal and a beer.

Fueled by Caffeine said:

did anyone splash out for private antibody testing?  OR get it through donating blood with the Red Cross?

 

https://www.redcrossblood.org/donate-blood/dlp/covid-19-antibody-testing.html

 

 

We were going to get it done privately - after much research about which test was being used. And then the day that we were scheduled, there were massive protests going on in the neighborhood and we decided to stay home.

In reply to mtn (Forum Supporter) :

Looks like its $10 from Labcorp..

https://www.labcorp.com/antibody-testing

quest wants $120..

https://questdirect.questdiagnostics.com/products/covid-19-immune-response/b580e541-78a5-48a6-b17b-7bad949dcb57

I do not have an ideological opposition to masks, but I do not wear one for several reasons. 
1- I am slightly asthmatic and struggle with allergies too

2- it is hot here. I work often outside, or in places under construction (no ac) or in attics. 
3- I'm rarely around anyone, with the exception of boss man, so exposure is extremely minimal

* edit  I should note that I do try very hard to keep distance, I wash my hands religiously, and I keep and use a big tub of sanitizer in the pipe wagon, just no masks  

I am lucky though as I live in an area with very little rona. I can however see panic and fear and give some highlights. We frequent the local Walmart, it is very close, and we often forget things in the normal grocery list so I'm usually there twice a week. Every time, I experience or witness harassment from mask wearers yelling at strangers to back away or get a mask on and we're all terrible irresponsible people and they hope we get sick. EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. I have never witnessed such hostility in public and it is constant. And it is worth mentioning that while I hear many folks complain about masks, I have not seen a single example of hostility or harassment going the other direction, even in the deep red area this is.

On a more personal note, I have family that is *terrified*. All the time. They live in an even smaller town up the road a bit, and treat every venture outdoors as if it is their last. They have been very vocal about my choice (not that I have a choice) to continue working, and have spared no words or feelings about how terrible I am for taking my kids (3,1) to the empty park around the corner. They do not care about antibody testing because the news told them that it doesn't matter since you can get COVID again, and they do not care about a possible vaccine because "the flu vaccine doesn't work and even if it did most folks won't get it anyway". 
That is fear. That is panic. It is constant. I don't see an end to it since these usually awesome people seem to believe it will kill everyone, it's just a matter of time. They are in the extreme, I think, but no less extreme than the folks who deny COVID even exists.

And I will reiterate, this virus is almost non existent here. I have not met anyone who has had it, and the closest I have heard of is a friend of a friend said his brother in law had it but never had symptoms. I have however, learned of two suicides of people i have met, after they were laid off. That is fear. That is panic. It was caused by an unnecessary closure of businesses, ordered by a governor, to stop the spread of something that, in my world experience, doesn't exist here. 
 

I don't know where I'm going with this. But there is fear and panic, and from what I've seen it goes hand in hand with mask wearing. It is fueled entirely by uninformed media, and it is hurting more people than it is helping. 

In reply to barefootskater :

Anecdotes aren't very useful. For example, I live in Oklahoma. Lowe's, Home Depot, Walmart, our local grocery store, I haven't seen one person with a mask be rude to someone without a mask.

So I have hard time believing EVERYTIME you've been in public you've seen people verbally assaulted about not wearing a mask. When I haven't seen it once in 3+ months.

So are people in Utah just a bunch of jerks, or are you being hyperbolic?

In reply to z31maniac :

Anecdotes are not very useful. And I stated that was simply my experience, for whatever that is worth. The only real takeaway is, if anything, most people are more interested in being sold sensationalism than in looking at statistics. 
You'll note that I did not dismiss covid as not being dangerous or scary, even deadly.

As for Utahns, well, it must be admitted that I live in a retirement town, full of crotchety old golfers who aren't having fun unless they can complain. Speaking of anecdotes. I used to get cursed daily for not allowing folks into the golf course until the sun had melted the nightly frost off the grass. It may be anecdotal, and only a small part of the population of that particular 55+ neighborhood, but That doesn't mean it doesn't happen. I don't think golf is an institution of violent foul mouthery, but some folks are inarguably E36 M3ty. 
 

In reply to barefootskater :

Old entitled rich people, that makes perfect sense.