When is it time to panic

Fueled by Caffeine said:

did anyone splash out for private antibody testing? 

My test results were negative.

In reply to Fueled by Caffeine :

I had a test through Quest, after insurance it was $95.  I tested positive for antibodies.  My doctor thinks I may have had it in early March. The symptoms I had at the time were stomach/digestive and dizziness which at the time were not listed as symptoms but no fever or respiratory problems.  COVID was just starting here and I wasn't terribly careful. Afterwards I put tremendous effort into not bringing it home to keep the wife safe.  It seems that was a waste of time. 

Wally (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to Fueled by Caffeine :

I had a test through Quest, after insurance it was $95.  I tested positive for antibodies.  My doctor thinks I may have had it in early March. The symptoms I had at the time were stomach/digestive and dizziness which at the time were not listed as symptoms but no fever or respiratory problems.  COVID was just starting here and I wasn't terribly careful. Afterwards I put tremendous effort into not bringing it home to keep the wife safe.  It seems that was a waste of time. 

Not a waste of time at all. Sounds like you did everything you knew to do in order to protect her. And you were diligent about it for months.

Don't get down on yourself Wally.  You don't know for sure.  We don't know.  The experts don't know!  No one is going to fault you for your efforts, you certainly shouldn't

I am going to try and get a free antibody test tomorrow that is part of a survey that is being done locally.  I don't know which test it is but I will try and find out.  I would hope it's one of the newest more accurate ones.

I know this is really simple, but sometimes simple is best:

I would say reopening is not going well.

Deaths chart doesn't look bad yet, but look closely at the dates and you can see it lags new cases by a bit.

Motorcycle teammate tested positive. Luckily he got sick 10 days after the last race so it's unlikely that we had any contact with him after he got it. Lots of it floating around Texas right. Tomorrow is my anniversary. Going to stay home. 

Robbie (Forum Supporter) said:

I know this is really simple, but sometimes simple is best:

I would say reopening is not going well.

Deaths chart doesn't look bad yet, but look closely at the dates and you can see it lags new cases by a bit.

Not so simple. New cases are a worthless number as testing is being done at much higher rates everywhere.... so yes there will be a lot of new cases. 
Maryland releases current hospitalization numbers as well as icu numbers. I think those are the most telling stats. 

In reply to Saron81 :

I mean, I dunno how many people you have to test to find one dead one, but I'd really like to see the positive death test rate here. This is useless without it. 

In reply to Robbie (Forum Supporter) :

I agree. 
 

I'd also like to see the stats normalized for age, risk category, and population density. 
 

If they were, I am confident most of us would find much less to be fearful of. 

SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:

I'd also like to see the stats normalized for age, risk category, and population density. 
 

If they were, I am confident most of us would find much less to be fearful of. 

I think lots of people don't fear it.  What they fear is potentially transmitting it to someone that is high risk.

I would say reopening is not going well.....

As noted, depends where you are.  The US number are being heavily influenced by Florida and Texas (maybe CA a bit).  

I would say, as far as reporting information, one of the most relevant variables would be population density.  NY is looking VERY good comparatively at this point (considering the density), but I don't think they have opened up as much as others.

Also as noted, given the current "plan", number of cases is not that big of a concern, it is if they translate to hospitalization and deaths (also as noted).

One interesting thought I had: Going forward, if an effective vaccine does not materialize in a timely mater, the countries that will have the most difficult situations will be the ones that tried (or did) stomp it out.  E.g. China will continually be chasing outbreaks and try to kill them, all the time being SUPER careful not to let any infected outsiders in.

Robbie (Forum Supporter) said:

Deaths chart doesn't look bad yet,

I've been hearing this since February.

The lockdown effort was clumsy at best and totally ineffective at worst. Yet the numbers keep coming out "better than expected".

I'm glad I didn't panic.

TopNoodles said:

Robbie (Forum Supporter) said:

Deaths chart doesn't look bad yet,

I've been hearing this since February.

The lockdown effort was clumsy at best and totally ineffective at worst. Yet the numbers keep coming out "better than expected".

Hold on a minute here... 

In March, the White House estimated 100k-200k deaths. In April, Fauci said it may be more like 60k deaths. Then we pulled back on restrictions, and today, 6/24, we're at 120k. 

How is this better than expected? Especially when you consider that the death rate, which has slowed, has not leveled off?

120<200, so yeah, pretty much

All the graphs on death rate I have seen are pretty flat.

I am not sure death rates are the only thing , 

if you are knocked down for a couple weeks  and still have problems for more weeks or months  thats a pretty big thing !

days in a hospital bed may be another thing to look at , 

whatever numbers you want to use , I do not think you want to get it bad enough that you need to go to the hospital , no matter what age you are......

Stay safe

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/24/us/oregon-county-people-of-color-mask-trnd/index.html

Fueled by Caffeine said:

did anyone splash out for private antibody testing?  OR get it through donating blood with the Red Cross?

 

https://www.redcrossblood.org/donate-blood/dlp/covid-19-antibody-testing.html

 

 

Booked for July 8. It's been over a year since my last donation & the exposure test is a nice perk. 

Masks are mandatory in public places here (NC) beginning Friday afternoon.

In reply to ProDarwin :

And it's about damned time. 

So..... the latest study (from China) seems to indicated anti-bodies decrease rather quickly.  It also indicates that asymptomatics likely shed the virus for longer then symptomatics (how contagious they may be is not indicated).

This could mean those large maskless collections of "youngins'" around the country may be performing a bizarre virus circle jerk.... around and around....

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/06/chinese-study-antibodies-covid-19-patients-fade-quickly

Pretty bad news in a number of ways if true.  Just one study though, in one place, so don't panic yet.

In other news, I got my anti-body test today.  Results should be in a few days.  It's that Abbot test (which is tested to be very accurate), so that is good. Considering the above, I am curious, if I did have it in January, will it still show.  Hopefully the results will show amount, not just positive or negative.

Toebra said:

120<200, so yeah, pretty much

 

All the graphs on death rate I have seen are pretty flat.

That "200" number you're using can't just be assumed to be for any given moment in time. The white house was optimistically projecting 100-240k deaths total, if everything went perfectly. It's been less than 6 months and numbers at 126k as of today. I would agree with mtn, this is not a good outlook and there is no reason to assume this is over yet.

https://apnews.com/6ed70e9db88b80439a087fdad8238009

ProDarwin said:

SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:

I'd also like to see the stats normalized for age, risk category, and population density. 
 

If they were, I am confident most of us would find much less to be fearful of. 

I think lots of people don't fear it.  What they fear is potentially transmitting it to someone that is high risk.

Yea, I don't think I'm in a bad situation.  But I don't want to be the one that restarts the fire here in Michigan, which cost a lot of people their lives that could have been prevented.  

That, and I also know people who are more sensitive to respitory issues, and I'm more scared for them than for me.

On the other hand, I'm also geting REALLY tired that being careful is somehow being afraid or hyper sensitive or over reacting or anything like that.  I'm being careful, logically.  I've read real science that shows that masks are more effective than social distancing, so doing both is a great path to eliminate the virus.

For sure, I'm going to continue to be careful.  Thinking of all the people around me.  And the long term economic impact the logner the virus hangs around.

Toebra said:

120<200, so yeah, pretty much

 

All the graphs on death rate I have seen are pretty flat.

Funny how deaths are somehow acceptable when they could be prevented.  

WRT additional deaths, lets not forget the huge upswing in pneumonia deaths during the pandemic- well above normal.  And the virus was the only bad change to the system.

SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to Robbie (Forum Supporter) :

I agree. 
 

I'd also like to see the stats normalized for age, risk category, and population density. 
 

If they were, I am confident most of us would find much less to be fearful of. 

I would not like to see it normalized for those things.  That implies that other people don't matter.

I'm not worried about me, I'm worried about giving it to someone else, and I don't get to pick and choose who I interact with, except by minimizing it as much as possible and doing simple things like wearing face masks when it is unavoidable.

I am annoyed that I missed my mom's 60th birthday in May, but she has asthma and my stepfather is diabetic and I'd much rather be able to see them at 61, for instance...