In reply to Robbie (Forum Supporter) :
good one!
'course call me a skeptic; I have absolutely NO confidence in that picture reflecting any acurate information
In reply to Robbie (Forum Supporter) :
good one!
'course call me a skeptic; I have absolutely NO confidence in that picture reflecting any acurate information
One aspect of C-19 people seem to be ignoring is how many shades of gray there are with this virus. You can't assume that because you're healthy it'll just be like getting the flu. While the odds are in your favor, there are still odds the virus could do long-term damage to your lungs even if you don't die from it. Then there's that other extreme where you could have it and not show any symptoms at all - hence the need for the masks.
I agree that map is not very useful. It shows a lot of folks in the US have the virus. Well... duh.
Be right back.
I'm going to go throw paint on a map and take a picture and provide no context.
In reply to Ian F (Forum Supporter) :
From what I’ve been able to glean from the numbers that are bandied about, even the worst would not look like that. Like said, looks like some one just threw red paint at a map!
Or, maybe... it a prediction?
Or maybe an attempt to encourage panic?
who knows?
03Panther said:In reply to Robbie (Forum Supporter) :
good one!
'course call me a skeptic; I have absolutely NO confidence in that picture reflecting any acurate information
It's real and it's from the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU)
It took about 30 seconds to find the map source
It's all about resolution, and big surprise, it's the news media making it look worse for the current narrative north of the border FYI
Streetwiseguy said:You guys really need to quit licking doorknobs.
I see I need to go to northern California , it looks like Redwood trees do not spread the virus........or is it that very few people live up there.....
Or the real truth that Pot growers are immune......
News at 11
Peabody said:03Panther said:In reply to Robbie (Forum Supporter) :
good one!
'course call me a skeptic; I have absolutely NO confidence in that picture reflecting any acurate information
It's real and it's from the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU)
It took about 30 seconds to find the map source
It's all about resolution, and big surprise, it's the news media making it look worse for the current narrative north of the border FYI
It's interesting that it's an American map, probably done to frighten or shame US citizens, but being used by Canadian sources for their narrative. It's interesting to expand to the world map.
Shows two things to me. One, denser population, more cases. Two, Canadians do what they are told... Not saying that is always a good thing, either.
03Panther said:In reply to Ian F (Forum Supporter) :
Like said, looks like some one just threw red paint at a map!
It is a display of real data. It has flaws for sure.
The US data is shown by county (lots and lots of little points)
Canada is by province (hence only a few points)
Other countries (France for example) are a single point for the entire country.
Its silly to compare to the US to Canada using that map, but it is fine to compare across the US.
If you want to compare the US to Canada, use numbers like this:
Us: 3,294,539 Cases 136,735 Deaths 413 Deaths/1M Pop
Canada: 107,126 Cases 8,759 Deaths 232 Deaths/1M Pop
Doing half as bad as the US is still pretty bad.
In reply to ProDarwin :
What seems to be difficult for some to grasp is we are only a few months into a situation that historically lasts for at least a year. Usually two or three. Those numbers will grow. A lot. If you manage to get to the end of this without being directly affected in some way, you'll be counted among the lucky few.
OK, I have a question for everyone, and see if you have any ideas, theories, or have read anything about this. Or, if you have personal experience, since some must live near by:
What is going on in the NY area?
As is well known, the NY area got hit HARD at the beginning (having a very high percentage of the deaths in the US). This could be blamed a lot on it being an initial hot spot (coming from Italy I believe), very high population density, and a public transit system that is great for spreading. Here is the current testing data (including the actually somewhat useful percentage positive results):
https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page
As you can see, the positive rate is now very low (about 2% for a 3 day rolling average). For comparison CA's positive rate is going north of %6, and that is considered an issue. ( https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Coronavirus-test-positivity-rates-are-rising-15378078.php ) The testing rate is rather high (as more testing is available I assume). Looking at this data, you would tend to think NY is doing great. I am, of course, a bit suspicious. The very flat 2% rate is also rather suspicious (to consistent).
My guess, in general, is that the early testing (super high positive rate) is VERY self-selection biased (e.g. only very sick people got tested), while the current testing is MUCH more random (e.g. more representative of the actual population). Either way, the data in NY is much different than other high population density areas.
There may be the suggestion that this is the result of what might be considered partial herd immunity. Maybe, the info I have found (only an approximate guess of course), says this:
To answer whether herd immunity could exist in the city, we'd need a different kind of study that uses antibody tests to determine what portion of the population has been infected in the past. Recent antibody research found that about 20% of New Yorkers have had prior infections -- a far cry from the 60% experts say would be needed to achieve herd immunity.
That article of course suggests the testing rate is so high in some areas (not really reflected in the graphs above of course) that there may be a herd immunity affect. If it is, the MIGHT be a look into the future for other high density areas.
So, for the questions:
- Anyone in the area, know what the current "opening" situation is there? (e.g. are these numbers being helped as the result of the area still being closed down)
- What is the typical compliance situation? (e.g. are people in general being careful)
- Any other guesses / observations?
Note: I realize looking for opinions is not terribly scientific. I am just interested in what your observations are.
In reply to Peabody :
So you don’t agree with me, but you agree with me... now I understand. Or, maybe, I don’t. Not sure.
I did not spend even one second looking for a source. I did not say it wasn’t real. I only responded to the picture presented. And I state that, as presented, (The picture) it does not show accurate Anything
In reply to aircooled :
Having spent some time in NY and New England in general, I would say it's mostly down to people being careful. Mask use is easily in the 90%+ range. People are staying away from each other (not really something these folks need much encouraging to do). The area was hit so hard, so early, that most people are taking it seriously.
In reply to ProDarwin :
As posted (i.e. a picture with 99.9% red east of the Miss river), it does not represent anything at all
i never mentioned anything about Canada, so I don’t think I’m being silly.
And yes, I understand what resolution means. I was only responding to the picture, as presented.
Peabody said:It's real and it's from the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU)
It took about 30 seconds to find the map source
It's all about resolution, and big surprise, it's the news media making it look worse for the current narrative north of the border FYI
In other news: The average human has one testicle. Absolute FACT!
(Panther, he seems well aware of what is actually going on with that map)
In reply to aircooled :
The map, or the picture as presented?
In reply to aircooled :
Actually, slightly less than one testicle. 
In reply to aircooled :
It will have to wait until I get out of work but I've got a bit of fact, opinion, and observation.
03Panther said:In reply to aircooled :
The map, or the picture as presented?
Yes, sorry, the picture as presented. (Even the full map is going to be a bit deceptive, as noted, because of of inconsistent data presentation by county, city, or country)
Ian F (Forum Supporter) said:In reply to aircooled :
Having spent some time in NY and New England in general, I would say it's mostly down to people being careful. Mask use is easily in the 90%+ range. People are staying away from each other (not really something these folks need much encouraging to do). The area was hit so hard, so early, that most people are taking it seriously.
Do you know what the current "closing" situation is?
For example, in CA, we had moved to allowing such things as (spaced and controlled) indoor dining. That was recently rolled back because of the positive test spikes. My guess is, the spikes are heavily related to recent large, un-regulated, public gatherings, as well as of course, holiday gatherings, neither of which seem to be showing in the NY data. The one article notes very high rates in some NY neighborhoods, which are likely the same neighborhoods with high participation in the recent "public gatherings", which might be a powerful factor.
Are we going to frenchy this thread and say everyone is wrong because it doesn't match what happens to me, or nah?
In reply to aircooled :
I'll start with the questions:
So, for the questions:
- Anyone in the area, know what the current "opening" situation is there? (e.g. are these numbers being helped as the result of the area still being closed down)
NYC is currently in what the government is calling Phase 3. Most stores are open with limited capacity, restaurants have outdoor dining but no indoor, movie theaters, gyms, and indoor malls remain closed. Most of the rest of the state is well into phase 4 which allows indoor dining and less restrictions on offices and stores.
- What is the typical compliance situation? (e.g. are people in general being careful)
Mask and distancing compliance is impressive. Even during the massive protests last month almost everyone was masked and generally kept as much distance as possible from people not in their party. It's rare to see someone who doesn't have a mask with them. Most will remove them if they're outside and not near anyone but are quick to put them on before passing near others or entering a business.
In reply to aircooled :
- Any other guesses / observations?
Disclaimer: The following is my own opinions and observations, not those of my employer, their employer, or their employer's employer. It is what I have seen spending most of the last few months managing bus service in Manhattan. In the course of that time My coworkers and I have read countless studies, articles and other sources in an effort to make informed decisions to continue doing my job as well as possible while keeping my family, coworkers, and customers as safe as possible and still moving. In some ways it went very well in spite of everything that has happened and in other ways I failed miserably. I will try and breakdown each part of your comment as best I can, but any number or percent I give is an estimate pulled from memory as I can't go more than a week back in emails on my phone. I apologize if I stray into politics, I will try not to, and if there are any questions please ask, these iare opinions and ,may not be well stated at times.I am only addressing the New York City Metro Area. I can go into the rest of the state too if you'd like.
"What is going on in the NY area?
As is well known, the NY area got hit HARD at the beginning (having a very high percentage of the deaths in the US). This could be blamed a lot on it being an initial hot spot (coming from Italy I believe), very high population density, and a public transit system that is great for spreading. Here is the current testing data (including the actually somewhat useful percentage positive results):
As you can see, the positive rate is now very low (about 2% for a 3 day rolling average). For comparison CA's positive rate is going north of %6, and that is considered an issue. ( https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Coronavirus-test-positivity-rates-are-rising-15378078.php ) The testing rate is rather high (as more testing is available I assume). Looking at this data, you would tend to think NY is doing great. I am, of course, a bit suspicious. The very flat 2% rate is also rather suspicious (to consistent).
My guess, in general, is that the early testing (super high positive rate) is VERY self-selection biased (e.g. only very sick people got tested), while the current testing is MUCH more random (e.g. more representative of the actual population). Either way, the data in NY is much different than other high population density areas.
There may be the suggestion that this is the result of what might be considered partial herd immunity. Maybe, the info I have found (only an approximate guess of course), says this:"
I agree with your guess. In the early stages the common thought was that everyone would have a fever and dry cough. it turned out later that there are actually about a dozen symptoms, if may not manifest as a respiratory illness at all in many cases, and only about 1/3 of symptomatic people run a fever. Because of this early on many people, myself included, had Covid and while not asymptomatic thought they just had a stomach virus and carried on spreading it about. Of course even if we were suspicious we couldn't get tested because tests were extremely hard to come by. You had to be nearing death, but not likely to die as they didn't want to waste anything. My dad had been sick for close to three weeks and could not get a test until his second night in the hospital. Add in what turned out to be terrible advice of not wearing mask, and telling sick people to stay home and ride it out as long as they possibly could because there really weren't many treatments yet of hospital space and you ended up with it spreading fast and far. One positive was that since we were reaching a point where everyone had been in some way touched by it in a hurry it lead to people taking it seriously. most are continuing to do so which is helping us reopen without a spike in cases. This has been a truly impressive effort of everyone pulling together and caring for their fellow man in a way that in my opinion far eclipses our post 9/11 response. My opinion on why other cities haven't followed through is because few places have the resources we do. One thing I've witnessed in my job is that few other cities have the manpower, equipment, and depth of knowledge that we are blessed to have for dealing with disasters. While this is obviously something no one could know how to fully understand how to manage there were several workable plans in short order. From marinating services, to caring for needy, to establishing supply chains we were able to make progress, often in spite of an inept mayor who is over his head.
As for the herd immunity guess I believe we are far from it. Our agency was hit pretty hard with several thousand illnesses and over 150 deaths. We recently did widespread antibody testing and found we had about 15% of us turn up positive which is a long way from where we'd need to be.
As for the dramatic change in testing rates in the first month almost no one was able to get tested. You had to be sick enough to warrant a test but well enough to wait in line for hours. No you don't even need a reason. Any lab, walkin clinic and most pharmacies will do one one the spot and get you results in a day or so.
As for why some neighborhoods were hit worse it generally comes down to money and employment. Elmhurst was one of the hardest hit areas and it is mostly working class lower income families. The were often the ones deemed essential and working service jobs like cleaners with little training or PPE and living in cramped spaces, often with extended family sharing an apartment so once. Once someone brought the virus home they could share it and then the people they shared it with could bring it to their jobs. Meanwhile other neighborhoods were mostly spared as their residents never had to leave home. The could work remotely and have anything imaginable delivered.
,
Going strictly off of what I see around me NYC is doing as well as the data indicates. The morgue trucks are gone, our absentee rates are back almost to pre-covid levels, and the few cases i see now are milder and we haven't lost an employee in weeks. People are coming back out, though very carefully, and the reduced exposure by using masks and better ventilation seems to be a factor in how severe a case you can get. I hope that other states can begin to learn some of the lessons we did without the suffering and death we had so that we can continue moving forward.
Yes, perfect Wally. Thank you very much for your observations. Exactly what I was looking for.
And, frankly, good news. It shows a potential future, even for high density areas. I was a bit worried the New York "attitude" might make them a bit rebellious, but as you noted, seeing the worst of it, and being pretty hardened as to what to do during hard times (much experience with that unfortunately) help a lot. I suspect there are very few (at least in the city area) who don't know, or know of someone badly affected. Out here, knowing someone is rather uncommon.
If you wouldn't mind adding your observations for other areas, I would be very interested in those (I am on the other coast, so have no idea). I am sure Manhattan is different from the boroughs which are very different from upstate.
Again thanks for the reply, thanks for what you do everyday, and thanks for being here. And now, maybe, even your state can serve to give us all a bit of hope.
Saw this posted elsewhere. Its interesting and relevant to the safe return to work discussion we were having earlier.
That's some good info. As a quick summary: For airborne transmission distance and time of expose appear to be directly related to chance of contracting. Airflow is obviously important also.
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