History in the Making: Russian Invasion

NOHOME said:

OK, so as someone who is always more interested in the long game rather than short-term: How does this ever end well for Russia?....

 At this point, it is a bit hard to see.  A strengthened relationship with China, Iran etc might help them, but all the other losses will likely counteract that.

Originally, as pointed out, he had done similar thing, twice before, and gotten away with it (and land), so not an entirely unreasonable gamble.  He was assured an easy victory, and it really did look that way initially, but everything was not as it appeared.  Now he is stuck.

There is a chance many things will return to how they were if this thing ends (countries like oil), but almost certainly not a gain.  My only guess is that as he terrorizes the Ukrainians, keeps energy prices high, and helps to starve parts of the world that that will help his position (leverage) and the world will give into some of his demands to make it stop... ?

aircooled said:

NOHOME said:

OK, so as someone who is always more interested in the long game rather than short-term: How does this ever end well for Russia?....

 At this point, it is a bit hard to see.  A strengthened relationship with China, Iran etc might help them, but all the other losses will likely counteract that.

I don't even think *that* helps Russia. China is very self-interested. I don't see their interactions with Russia really being in support of anything Russia is doing. I see it as being about, "Oh hey, you don't have buyers for all that oil anymore. We'll be happy to take some of that off your hands for cheap..."

I think it's going to be a very one-sided relationship of China taking advantage of Russia's weakening global position.

In reply to aircooled :

He's not "keeping" oil prices high, oil prices are high because the world told him to keep it, we don't want it...

His actions caused the west to do that.  If he stops doing what he's doing, prices will likely fall. His actions are directly related to it.  It may not be his original intention or goal, much like starving parts of the world, but both can work to his advantage.

As questioned previously, if things get "better" there, and Russia returns to somewhat normal, will the world continue boycott them as they are, or will they start buying their oil again?  I highly suspect there will be a lot of buying, though I would hope a trend to move away.

Also of note here is the original spike of oil prices (before the invasion) was heavily related to not increasing production that was a decision by the Saudi's and Russia (as I read).  You have to think this was clearly a move by Russia to increase cash flow with the higher prices (to help pay for the invasion?).  I suspect they did not expect the flow to be cut off though.  China and India are still buying of course, but I believe they are getting a discount.

aircooled said:

As questioned previously, if things get "better" there, and Russia returns to somewhat normal, will the world continue boycott them as they are, or will they start buying their oil again?  I highly suspect there will be a lot of buying, though I would hope a trend to move away.

Europe would buy Russian gas again, but not as much. They're going to spend a little bit more to diversify their supply lines to prevent future interruptions.

Russia has proven it should not be relied on as a supplier.

In reply to Beer Baron :

...or as a partner in space exploration.

Talk about horrible timing given the huge advances the U.S. is making right now.

NOHOME said:

 

OK, so as someone who is always more interested in the long game rather than short-term: How does this ever end well for Russia?

Lets say worse case scenario putin gets his puppet dictator in Ukraine and "takes over" the entire country. Lets say he goes the whole hog and sterilized the country and refills with Russian "settlers".  

 

How long would it be before they were welcomed into the global community again? How far behind would they be in technological participation? WHY would they ever be welcomed back? How is putin going to feel safer for the rest of his life?  I am clearly missing something because I don't see the Win-Win for Russia. I am also pretty certain that putin does have a clear vision.

 Anyone?

It's possible they're thinking of hitching their wagon to India.  Both countries have a long history of weapons purchasing/sales.  I see India bootstrapping themselves up a level in the coming decades and needing a crapton of raw materials and energy for their people.  Their new expanding tech sector should give them the money to pay for it.  A serious Indian naval presence in the IO would give the PRC fits, too.  

aircooled said:

His actions caused the west to do that.  If he stops doing what he's doing, prices will likely fall. His actions are directly related to it.  It may not be his original intention or goal, much like starving parts of the world, but both can work to his advantage.

As questioned previously, if things get "better" there, and Russia returns to somewhat normal, will the world continue boycott them as they are, or will they start buying their oil again?  I highly suspect there will be a lot of buying, though I would hope a trend to move away.

Also of note here is the original spike of oil prices (before the invasion) was heavily related to not increasing production that was a decision by the Saudi's and Russia (as I read).  You have to think this was clearly a move by Russia to increase cash flow with the higher prices (to help pay for the invasion?).  I suspect they did not expect the flow to be cut off though.  China and India are still buying of course, but I believe they are getting a discount.

The sitting US president in May 2020 asked the Saudis to hold back oil production for two years, and they agreed.

In reply to Pete. (l33t FS) :

Not trying to flounder this thread, but your information is confirmed.  I won't say anymore than that. Reuters

Interesting, but pretty obviously not what I am referring to. 

2020 was very much in the pandemic shutdown and oil use was very low (price was bottomed out).  I am referring to last year, 2021, as the pandemic is waning and oil demands are coming back quickly.  Russia and OPEC decided not to increase production (I cannot say how much Russian had an influence on this, but they of course benefit):

https://www.cnbctv18.com/energy/explained-why-opec-did-not-raise-oil-output-despite-global-energy-shortage-10999782.htm

OPEC and Russia-led group of oil producers decided against opening the oil taps widely as was anticipated by the experts even as the world continues to reel with an energy shortage. The group insisted on continuing to slowly and steadily increase the oil output -- an approach it had taken when the economies started recuperating after the shocks of a global pandemic.

Following the announcement, the benchmark US oil rose over 2 percent to close at $77.62 a barrel. Brent crude, another oil benchmark added over 2.5 percent and closed above $81.26 -- a level it hasn't seen in three years.

The group, currently led by Saudi Arabia, with Russia as an ally, did not explain the reasoning behind its steady pace. It said it was "acting in view of the current oil market fundamentals."

My suspicious is that they made so little money during the slowdown, they are trying to do a bit of "catching up".  The current situation I am sure is a bit of a bonus for them (not so much Russia of course).

stroker said:

NOHOME said:

 

OK, so as someone who is always more interested in the long game rather than short-term: How does this ever end well for Russia?

Lets say worse case scenario putin gets his puppet dictator in Ukraine and "takes over" the entire country. Lets say he goes the whole hog and sterilized the country and refills with Russian "settlers".  

 

How long would it be before they were welcomed into the global community again? How far behind would they be in technological participation? WHY would they ever be welcomed back? How is putin going to feel safer for the rest of his life?  I am clearly missing something because I don't see the Win-Win for Russia. I am also pretty certain that putin does have a clear vision.

 Anyone?

It's possible they're thinking of hitching their wagon to India.  Both countries have a long history of weapons purchasing/sales.  I see India bootstrapping themselves up a level in the coming decades and needing a crapton of raw materials and energy for their people.  Their new expanding tech sector should give them the money to pay for it.  A serious Indian naval presence in the IO would give the PRC fits, too.  

Just remember 20 years ago China was a client state of Russia too but then they advanced past Russia and they are now are superior to Russia and most military items (to most certainly include naval ships).

India is trying to do the same thing: jump generations by buying and reverse engineering things from other countries. It's only a matter of time before India bypasses Russia as well in the military technology game. Then Russia will be left selling too African militants and crappy Middle East countries that can't afford the Western weapons (though most of those are now buying the equally cheap but probably better Chinese stuff at this point anyway).

India is using Russia just like China has for years, But once they no longer need Russia that relationship with deteriorate just like it did with China and Russia.

Pete. (l33t FS) said:

aircooled said:

His actions caused the west to do that.  If he stops doing what he's doing, prices will likely fall. His actions are directly related to it.  It may not be his original intention or goal, much like starving parts of the world, but both can work to his advantage.

As questioned previously, if things get "better" there, and Russia returns to somewhat normal, will the world continue boycott them as they are, or will they start buying their oil again?  I highly suspect there will be a lot of buying, though I would hope a trend to move away.

Also of note here is the original spike of oil prices (before the invasion) was heavily related to not increasing production that was a decision by the Saudi's and Russia (as I read).  You have to think this was clearly a move by Russia to increase cash flow with the higher prices (to help pay for the invasion?).  I suspect they did not expect the flow to be cut off though.  China and India are still buying of course, but I believe they are getting a discount.

The sitting US president in May 2020 asked the Saudis to hold back oil production for two years, and they agreed.

US shale produces need oil prices to be high in order to be profitable. I remember reading something that said when prices are under $80 a barrel shale producers actually just stop production because they lose money. When oil was cheap back then it pretty much shut down that entire industry (which was apparently intentionally done by the Saudis to try to kill the shale industry in the US)

Some tidbits:  Russia continues to shell and rocket various cities around Ukraine.  They also seem to be making attacks in the Donbas area.  The Ukrainians also seem to be attacking in some areas.  No general attack by Russia at this point but the guess is they will try and encircle the Ukrainians in the Slovyansk / Kramatorsk area (the inner part of the reverse C below).

As noted previously, and the entire original point of this thread, the Ukrainians will very likely see them coming wherever they attack.  Also of note is that the vehicles they repositions from the Kyiv attack, where driven to this area.  This will put a lot of wear on those vehicles and will likely result a lot of non-functional vehicles.  It will be interesting to see what surprises the Ukrainians (and the West) has for them, and what kind of F-up's the Russians can manage (going with the trend).  The Ukrainians did say this:

Ukraine's armed forces command says it sees signs that Russia is beginning its new offensive in eastern Ukraine- Reuters

As the Ukrainians become stronger, this is starting to look like some sort of stalemate is looming and possibly Ukraine trying to take back captured territory.  If his generals are being more straight with him, Put Put might not even try a general attack (I don't think he actually said anything that would commit him to that at this point).

It's looking pretty bleak in Mariupol.  It would nice if there was somewhat to relieve / support it, but it seems pretty solidly surrounded, and that is a pretty obvious move to make.

irish44j (Forum Supporter) said:

Pete. (l33t FS) said:

aircooled said:

His actions caused the west to do that.  If he stops doing what he's doing, prices will likely fall. His actions are directly related to it.  It may not be his original intention or goal, much like starving parts of the world, but both can work to his advantage.

As questioned previously, if things get "better" there, and Russia returns to somewhat normal, will the world continue boycott them as they are, or will they start buying their oil again?  I highly suspect there will be a lot of buying, though I would hope a trend to move away.

Also of note here is the original spike of oil prices (before the invasion) was heavily related to not increasing production that was a decision by the Saudi's and Russia (as I read).  You have to think this was clearly a move by Russia to increase cash flow with the higher prices (to help pay for the invasion?).  I suspect they did not expect the flow to be cut off though.  China and India are still buying of course, but I believe they are getting a discount.

The sitting US president in May 2020 asked the Saudis to hold back oil production for two years, and they agreed.

US shale produces need oil prices to be high in order to be profitable. I remember reading something that said when prices are under $80 a barrel shale producers actually just stop production because they lose money. When oil was cheap back then it pretty much shut down that entire industry (which was apparently intentionally done by the Saudis to try to kill the shale industry in the US)

As I understand it, up here in the Dakota Williston Basin Bakken shale oil field, there are three about 8' thick layers of shale 10,000 feet down saturated with oil stretching some 100 miles in diameter. Wells are drilled on a grid 2 miles down and 2 miles horizontally after the invention of GPS horizontal drilling which can put the well exactly in the thin shale layer even following the shale's terrain and I think that the success rate is near 100%. These are pretty small wells, but when you add up the thousands of them, it amounts to over a million barrels per day. Unfortunately, most of the drilling companies are small Mom and Pop operations which are highly leveraged and when the Saudis started their price war, lots of them went bankrupt. They are in no hurry to start up again just to get burned again. Boom and Bust...Repeat...

VolvoHeretic said:

irish44j (Forum Supporter) said:

Pete. (l33t FS) said:

aircooled said:

His actions caused the west to do that.  If he stops doing what he's doing, prices will likely fall. His actions are directly related to it.  It may not be his original intention or goal, much like starving parts of the world, but both can work to his advantage.

As questioned previously, if things get "better" there, and Russia returns to somewhat normal, will the world continue boycott them as they are, or will they start buying their oil again?  I highly suspect there will be a lot of buying, though I would hope a trend to move away.

Also of note here is the original spike of oil prices (before the invasion) was heavily related to not increasing production that was a decision by the Saudi's and Russia (as I read).  You have to think this was clearly a move by Russia to increase cash flow with the higher prices (to help pay for the invasion?).  I suspect they did not expect the flow to be cut off though.  China and India are still buying of course, but I believe they are getting a discount.

The sitting US president in May 2020 asked the Saudis to hold back oil production for two years, and they agreed.

US shale produces need oil prices to be high in order to be profitable. I remember reading something that said when prices are under $80 a barrel shale producers actually just stop production because they lose money. When oil was cheap back then it pretty much shut down that entire industry (which was apparently intentionally done by the Saudis to try to kill the shale industry in the US)

As I understand it, up here in the Dakota Williston Basin Bakken shale oil field, there are three about 8' thick layers of shale 10,000 feet down saturated with oil stretching some 100 miles in diameter. Wells are drilled on a grid 2 miles down and 2 miles horizontally after the invention of GPS horizontal drilling which can put the well exactly in the thin shale layer even following the shale's terrain and I think that the success rate is near 100%. These are pretty small wells, but when you add up the thousands of them, it amounts to over a million barrels per day. Unfortunately, most of the drilling companies are small Mom and Pop operations which are highly leveraged and when the Saudis started their price war, lots of them went bankrupt. They are in no hurry to start up again just to get burned again. Boom and Bust...Repeat...

Actually, I was a bit high, but the disparity is still pretty notable. I'm actually more surprised at the cost of production of Russian oil....

meanwhile

stroker said:

NOHOME said:

 

OK, so as someone who is always more interested in the long game rather than short-term: How does this ever end well for Russia?

Lets say worse case scenario putin gets his puppet dictator in Ukraine and "takes over" the entire country. Lets say he goes the whole hog and sterilized the country and refills with Russian "settlers".  

 

How long would it be before they were welcomed into the global community again? How far behind would they be in technological participation? WHY would they ever be welcomed back? How is putin going to feel safer for the rest of his life?  I am clearly missing something because I don't see the Win-Win for Russia. I am also pretty certain that putin does have a clear vision.

 Anyone?

It's possible they're thinking of hitching their wagon to India.  Both countries have a long history of weapons purchasing/sales.  I see India bootstrapping themselves up a level in the coming decades and needing a crapton of raw materials and energy for their people.  Their new expanding tech sector should give them the money to pay for it.  A serious Indian naval presence in the IO would give the PRC fits, too.  

Other than the Zenophobic souls of both nations, this makes the most sense from a possible scenario standpoint.  

As to the price of fuel and so many other things, forget russia...if there were a scarcity, the stuff would not be available period.... and we would be doing with less. If it is equally available today as it was yesterday, only at a higher price, you are being berkeleyed. .. I meant gouged...get used to it cause that is a new version of stock buy-back or at least how they will pay for what they bought in the past. It is brillant.

Russian forces are attacking “along almost the entire front line,” said Alexey Danilov, the secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council. “Fortunately, our military is holding on.”

I guess we will see in the next few days if they make any progress.  I am a bit doubtful. I am also guessing those units keeping the Russians from deserting are going to be busy.

A bit of musing: Remember when it was popular in certain circles to say that the Islamists "hated our freedom"? One thing that keeps coming to mind is that since 2014 Ukraine has been trending democratic, liberal, and prosperous. Autocrats like Putin hate that sort of freedom.

After the breakup of the USSR, the countries immediately adjacent to the former Western European block tended to emulate them politically. East Germany, The Czech Republic and Poland come to mind. But the further East you go, the more you tended to see countries tilting authoritarian. Russia, Belarus, Hungary and all the countries ending in "stan" for starters.

A few years ago, Ukraine would have fit more into the  second category, but since Russia took Crimea, the remainder of Ukraine has shifted towards the West. And with some success. Mariupol was a good example of a Russian-leaning community that found itself increasingly aligned with Kyiv. Ukraine wasn't a military threat to Russia, but as a fellow oil-producing country with good ports and agriculture, Ukraine was gathering economic strength. And this presented a real threat to Putin. He dikdn't want Russians to see a large, prosperous, liberal-democratic country on its doorstep making Russians wonder what they were doing wrong. 

I think that's critical to the rationale behind this invasion. Not a military threat, but an economic one. A threat best kept in check by physical control. But Russia waited too long. In 2014 Ukraine was still relatively weak and Russian forces probably could have rolled right through. But for the last 8 years, Ukraine has been preparing for the inevitable, and they've done an amazing job so far.

irish44j (Forum Supporter) said:

I'm actually more surprised at the cost of production of Russian oil....

It's a lot easier to work in the desert than in Siberia.

An interesting technical analysis of the engagement of the Moskva here.

02Pilot said:

An interesting technical analysis of the engagement of the Moskva here.

That's fascinating.  Makes me wonder if you could use that with tanks/aircraft, too.  Thank you.

In reply to stroker :

I'm sure there are formulae for almost everything. When I was in grad school I had an entire class that was basically working out the calculations for building effective nuclear deterrent/first strike/survivable second strike forces, and what sort of policies were required and enabled by such.

On crude prices - I read an article in The Economist the other day comparing the price of Brent crude to Ural (Basically, Russian) crude.  Here's a chart showing the disparity:

(WTI, I believe, is West Texas crude).

If I read this chart correctly, whoever is still doing business with the Russians is getting about a 30% discount on their oil. 

Interesting. North Dakota light sweet crude is going for $105.80 as of 04-18-2022. It has the consistency of kerosene.

I have never been able to entirely understand the pricing of oil because of "shortages", when you can clearly get as much as you want, but when the cut supply, prices go up.  Maybe sourcing more expensive sources, but that still really doesn't make sense.