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Pete. (l33t FS)
Pete. (l33t FS) GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
10/9/22 1:22 p.m.

In reply to eastsideTim :

I don't predict much but I see Putin either stepping down "for health reasons" or being forcibly removed.  I do not see him being in power for much longer.

eastsideTim
eastsideTim UltimaDork
10/9/22 1:26 p.m.
Pete. (l33t FS) said:

In reply to eastsideTim :

I don't predict much but I see Putin either stepping down "for health reasons" or being forcibly removed.  I do not see him being in power for much longer.

At which point it becomes a matter of which faction (or factions) attempt to seize power.  A civil war might bring all the troops home real quickly.

tuna55
tuna55 MegaDork
10/9/22 2:05 p.m.

In reply to volvoclearinghouse :

We're not sending money to Ukraine. We're sending money to the manufactures of the equipment here at home, which will help industry. Plus we gain a way to find out which of our weapons platforms work, and how well. 

tuna55
tuna55 MegaDork
10/9/22 2:12 p.m.
eastsideTim said:
Pete. (l33t FS) said:

In reply to eastsideTim :

I don't predict much but I see Putin either stepping down "for health reasons" or being forcibly removed.  I do not see him being in power for much longer.

At which point it becomes a matter of which faction (or factions) attempt to seize power.  A civil war might bring all the troops home real quickly.

This may sound callous, but perhaps a civil war would be overall better for Russians. 

stroker
stroker PowerDork
10/9/22 2:45 p.m.
Pete. (l33t FS)
Pete. (l33t FS) GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
10/9/22 2:52 p.m.
tuna55 said:
eastsideTim said:
Pete. (l33t FS) said:

In reply to eastsideTim :

I don't predict much but I see Putin either stepping down "for health reasons" or being forcibly removed.  I do not see him being in power for much longer.

At which point it becomes a matter of which faction (or factions) attempt to seize power.  A civil war might bring all the troops home real quickly.

This may sound callous, but perhaps a civil war would be overall better for Russians. 

History says it usually is not better, just different.

Kreb (Forum Supporter)
Kreb (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
10/9/22 3:09 p.m.
Pete. (l33t FS) said:
 

History says it usually is not better, just different.

Russia likes macho, throwback types at the helm. Sadly, odds are that they'll get another one.

As far as NATO goes, my understanding is that they require 100 percent approval to bring on new members, and there are a couple of nations (Turkey being one) who are likely to drag their feet. NATO doesn't want the distraction of a public display of disunity.

volvoclearinghouse
volvoclearinghouse UltimaDork
10/9/22 4:18 p.m.

In reply to tuna55 :

That's a distinction without a difference. Yes, war helps the defense industry. It's also obviously easier for Ukraine if they get the stuff they want to fight the war instead of money to buy the stuff they want to fight the war. And this way some of it trickles down to help our economy quicker. 

It's interesting that this was a popular neoconservative philosophy back when I was growing up, and now it feels like the "traditional" left, that used to oppose such concepts, is now fully on board, while many on the right have now swung the other way. 

 

alfadriver
alfadriver MegaDork
10/9/22 4:27 p.m.

In reply to volvoclearinghouse :

Depends on the situation.  The US is supporting a country that was unjustly invaded by a neighbor.

And the "reason" by conservatives are not supportive now is because of propaganda that is believed.   Again, Ukraine is very corrupt- nobody is questioning that.  But that does not what so ever justify an invasion and even less justifies murdering ordinary citizens.   And that's why liberals support keeping them armed.

That last point is why I support continuing the armed battle, as I don't see stopping that as an end to the killing of people.   The issue of soldiers murdering ordinary Ukrainians is a really big deal to no overlook when it comes to continuing this to push russia out or placating vlad's threats and making a deal now.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
10/9/22 5:27 p.m.
tuna55 said:

In reply to volvoclearinghouse :

We're not sending money to Ukraine. We're sending money to the manufactures of the equipment here at home, which will help industry. Plus we gain a way to find out which of our weapons platforms work, and how well. 

Not only that, but we are getting a lot of intel on how Russian systems operate, specifically electronic related systems.  I am sure the US has hovered up HUGE amounts of electronic intelligence data.  I suspect the S300 and S400 SAM systems are far less of a threat now, or in the near future.  A number of potential enemies use Russian or Russian derived systems also.

volvoclearinghouse
volvoclearinghouse UltimaDork
10/9/22 7:36 p.m.

In reply to alfadriver :

Interesting.  Of all the reasons I would give for not supporting arming the Ukrainians, "corruption" in Ukraine isn't one of them. Nor have I really been hearing that from the right, either. I suspect the propaganda on the left that is believed is that the right is telling people the Ukrainians are corrupt, so they shouldn't be getting support. As far as I can tell, that just isn't the case. 

I liked the earlier analogy of Russian corruption to that of an area in the US that's controlled by a single party, and imagining then that the whole country is like that. We are very fortunate to have multiple parties here in the US, and diversity of viewpoints, and we have seen, to that earlier comments point, what happens in big cities when "the machine" takes over. Extreme corruption. 

There's always some humanitarian crisis or another going on somewhere in the world.  The reasons for picking one to support and not others has some rationale, as you and others have mentioned, but those don't seem like sufficiently motivating factors.  

alfadriver
alfadriver MegaDork
10/9/22 8:03 p.m.

In reply to volvoclearinghouse :

Corruption has been brought up before seemingly justifying what vlad is doing.  Either that, or somehow Ukrainians are Nazis, although, I'm not aware of any evidence of that.  Especially since Ukraine hasn't targeted any russian civilians- as I'm sure we would hear about that instantly.  Whereas russia has already retaliated for the bridge thing against civilians.  

russia is the aggressor here, Ukraine asked for help- so we give it to them.   

NOHOME
NOHOME MegaDork
10/9/22 8:09 p.m.
Pete. (l33t FS) said:
tuna55 said:
eastsideTim said:
Pete. (l33t FS) said:

In reply to eastsideTim :

I don't predict much but I see Putin either stepping down "for health reasons" or being forcibly removed.  I do not see him being in power for much longer.

At which point it becomes a matter of which faction (or factions) attempt to seize power.  A civil war might bring all the troops home real quickly.

This may sound callous, but perhaps a civil war would be overall better for Russians. 

History says it usually is not better, just different.

I think someone wrote a song about the subject matter.

11GTCS
11GTCS Dork
10/9/22 8:48 p.m.

In reply to NOHOME :

Who? 

CrustyRedXpress
CrustyRedXpress Dork
10/9/22 8:57 p.m.
volvoclearinghouse said:

It's interesting that this was a popular neoconservative philosophy back when I was growing up, and now it feels like the "traditional" left, that used to oppose such concepts, is now fully on board, while many on the right have now swung the other way. 

In my trad-left circles the objection was always that the US was involved in overthrowing either democratically elected governments (Iran, Guatemala, etc) or were straight up lied to about the rationale for war (Iraq II). They generally supported Iraq I and the first phases of Afghanistan. If something like Ukraine happened 20 years ago I'm fairly certain trad-lefts would have supported it...I think back then conservatives would have as well.

eastsideTim
eastsideTim UltimaDork
10/9/22 9:19 p.m.

In reply to CrustyRedXpress :

I think, for the most part, left and right are supporting Ukraine, not everyone, but the majority.  I can think of one very popular commentator on the right who seems all on the pro-Russia bus, but they are someone who has made a career of sowing chaos, as far as I can tell.

Putin's next meeting with his security council is tomorrow (today in Russia, I guess).  I'd love to be a fly on the wall in that room.  Curious to see if they are all playing the role of yes men right now, if there is any visible dissent, if there's a lot of blaming each other, or if there is any sign of a palace coup.

Pete. (l33t FS)
Pete. (l33t FS) GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
10/9/22 9:59 p.m.
aircooled said:
tuna55 said:

In reply to volvoclearinghouse :

We're not sending money to Ukraine. We're sending money to the manufactures of the equipment here at home, which will help industry. Plus we gain a way to find out which of our weapons platforms work, and how well. 

Not only that, but we are getting a lot of intel on how Russian systems operate, specifically electronic related systems.  I am sure the US has hovered up HUGE amounts of electronic intelligence data.  I suspect the S300 and S400 SAM systems are far less of a threat now, or in the near future.  A number of potential enemies use Russian or Russian derived systems also.

Probably not for much longer.  This "military exercise" is one hell of a lot of bad advertisement for Russian military systems.

 

02Pilot
02Pilot UberDork
10/9/22 10:11 p.m.
Pete. (l33t FS) said:

Probably not for much longer.  This "military exercise" is one hell of a lot of bad advertisement for Russian military systems.

To the question of what happened to those vaunted systems, allow me to quote Cpt. Bart Mancuso in The Hunt for Red October, "Combat tactics, Mr. Ryan".

While the conflict has certainly revealed some technical flaws, let's not forget that the Ukrainians are using a lot of the same equipment, and doing so more effectively. The difference is in how they are using it. They've had years of working with the US to see Soviet and Russian equipment from the other side, and how to develop asymmetrical tactical approaches to counter it. I suspect the real education here is for the Chinese and other operators of Russian equipment who have adopted Russian tactical methods - they're stuck with the hardware, but they will be looking for new ways to use it if they have any thought of facing a Western-trained opponent in the future.

VolvoHeretic
VolvoHeretic GRM+ Memberand HalfDork
10/9/22 10:29 p.m.

Yahoo.com: Intelligence announces numerous arrests of military personnel in Moscow

Sounds like things aren't all Hunky-dory in Moscow. I keep hearing about once someone puts one in between Putin's eyes, whoever succeeds him might still continue the Russian debacle in Ukraine. I don't believe for a minute that anybody and everybody next in line won't pull out of Ukraine in a heartbeat. If we could snuff him out, it would be all over.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
10/9/22 10:59 p.m.

Perhaps a attempt to prevent a coup.  
 

Perhaps an attempt to mitigate potential backlash by loyalists to whomever Putin throws under the bus next (rumored to be Shoigu, minister of defense)

02Pilot
02Pilot UberDork
10/10/22 6:13 a.m.
VolvoHeretic said:

Yahoo.com: Intelligence announces numerous arrests of military personnel in Moscow

Sounds like things aren't all Hunky-dory in Moscow. I keep hearing about once someone puts one in between Putin's eyes, whoever succeeds him might still continue the Russian debacle in Ukraine. I don't believe for a minute that anybody and everybody next in line won't pull out of Ukraine in a heartbeat. If we could snuff him out, it would be all over.

It's a happy thought, but not a realistic one. The hawks are increasingly well-positioned to take control, as the doves are pushed aside in the power structure, while civilians opposed to the war have left the country in large numbers, either in the wake of initial protests in the spring, or recently to escape the draft; those that remain do not appear well-organized. The assassination of Putin would likely bring a wave of further repression and reprisal, and possibly a localized civil conflict as one leader consolidates power over his rivals.

The follow-on problem, of course, is that the new leader will be under the same pressure to win in Ukraine, and without Putin's long rule and consolidated power to get it done, which could easily lead to a cycle of coups and civil unrest inside Russia (see 1917-22). Good for Ukraine to a point, but frighteningly destabilizing if a real fanatic like Kadyrov comes to power.

02Pilot
02Pilot UberDork
10/10/22 7:59 a.m.

Lukashenko has announced that Belarus will deploy troops jointly with Russia. No clear indication if this means into Ukraine, or just the annexed territories, or something else. Nor is there any statement on size and composition of the force, or the intended timing. Possibly a significant development, but Belorussian forces are likely to be pretty brittle if subjected to direct combat. They might be more effectively deployed as security forces or other secondary duties behind the lines, freeing up Russian troops for the front.

tuna55
tuna55 MegaDork
10/10/22 8:06 a.m.
02Pilot said:

Lukashenko has announced that Belarus will deploy troops jointly with Russia. No clear indication if this means into Ukraine, or just the annexed territories, or something else. Nor is there any statement on size and composition of the force, or the intended timing. Possibly a significant development, but Belorussian forces are likely to be pretty brittle if subjected to direct combat. They might be more effectively deployed as security forces or other secondary duties behind the lines, freeing up Russian troops for the front.

I read that this was done as a token to avoid getting into the conflict (and having Ukrain target them), thoughts?

tuna55
tuna55 MegaDork
10/10/22 8:07 a.m.

Russia has apparently responded to the destruction of the Crimean bridge by launching cruise missiles into city centers and parks. If you needed any more evidence of who the aggressor is, here is said evidence.

Floating Doc (Forum Supporter)
Floating Doc (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand UltimaDork
10/10/22 8:08 a.m.

Given the current power structure in Russia, what comes after Putin may make him look like the moderate. 

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