History in the Making: Russian Invasion

hmmmmmmmmmm.........

That doesn't bode well for minimizing the conflict...

A completely not related story:

• Russian occupation deputy head of Kherson Oblast Kirill Stremousov was killed in a claimed car accident in rear Kherson Oblast the day Russian forces announced their withdrawal from the west bank of Kherson Oblast.

He was very insistent that Russia should stay in Kherson.  To bad about the "accident".

The Russians even posted a note about how people should be careful while driving, with a picture of Kirill in a car without his seat belt on.  Those wacky Russians, always so concerned about the safety of their citizens and public servants....

...I am just wondering how he drove that car up to the 5th floor of the hospital (joke, not true )

In reply to stroker :

This has been the trend for some time now. It is a dynamic you find in governments prosecuting unsuccessful military efforts; we saw the same thing in Vietnam. The advocates of avoiding conflict, or of seeking a peaceful way out once things have gone bad, tend to be viewed as critical of the decision, and thus by extension of the decision-makers. Neither Putin nor LBJ wanted to hear from those who criticized the decision to enter the war in the first place, and who then look for a way out short of the war's objectives. Advocates of the hard line, who were in favor from the beginning and are critical only in that not enough has been done, are not criticizing the decision nor the decision-makers, but those who have failed to successfully carry out what they deem correct policy, as well as those who criticized the policy from the beginning. Both LBJ and Putin understand the weakness associated with being the head of state during a losing war effort, and that they need all the support they can get. That support is forthcoming from the hardliners - if the military effort is escalated - but it will never come from those who questioned the policy objectives themselves. Thus the leader has only two choices: admit being wrong and take the sole (or at least primary) blame for a failed policy, or double-down with the support of the hardliners and maintain a position of at least some strength.

Whether Putin with Prigozhin and Kadyrov, or LBJ with McNamara and the Chiefs, the dynamic is largely the same. Johnson only admitted defeat because his position was ultimately dependent on gaining votes - votes he knew were beyond his grasp in 1968. Putin has no such pressures upon him; as long as he thinks he can win something in Ukraine, he has every reason to proceed, and he can only do that with support - support that is only forthcoming from the hardliners.

Looks like the Russians are essentially out of Kherson now.  A very rapid change, maybe too fast.  Something interesting happened here.  I would be pretty surprised if this did not result in either lots of Russian casualties or prisoners.

The countdown begins for the atrocities they find to start coming out....

This war never ceases to amaze me. All this talk about a trap and it appears that they've left with a whimper. Although the destruction in their wake is hardly that.  

I'm thinking that Russia will try to dig in on this side of the river and negotiate a permanent occupancy (good luck with that).

It is starting to look like Russia wants to stop with what they have now, at least in the southern area.  The Ukrainians clearly have another concept.

The Russians have blown up the Kherson Bridge.

msn.com: Ukraine war latest: Crucial Kherson bridge 'blown up' by retreating Russians

Not a big surprise. 

One pet peeve: Why do people refer to the "left bank" or "right bank"? Those are determinations that are entirely dependent on which direction you are looking from. How about East bank and West bank!

Yet another in a long line of D moves:

Ukrainian energy operator: Russian troops have destroyed electrical power system in Kherson almost completely

Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:

Not a big surprise. 

One pet peeve: Why do people refer to the "left bank" or "right bank"? Those are determinations that are entirely dependent on which direction you are looking from. How about East bank and West bank!

It assumes you're looking downstream.

Some more tidbits:

The Russians likely left a lot of equipment in the city (no easy way to get heavy equipment across the river).  It's also likely a lot of Russian soldiers have "gone civilian" and are trying out their best Ukrainian accents.

They blew up the road part of the Nova Kakhovka dam north of the city (and may have damaged the dam?)

They will likely now setup artillery to bombard the city from across the river, although that area if very flat an might make it difficult to hide them there.  Since there is little threat of the Ukrainians crossing, they will likely re-deploy those troops (probably to the now vulnerable area north of Metropol, near the nuke plant)

Ukraine might be getting ATACMS rockets, which can be launched from the HIMARS platforms and have a much longer range (this is the shorter 100 ish miles one though).  1000lb warhead, GPS guided, so basically a bigger HIMARS.

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In reply to aircooled :

You got a source on the ATACMS? I haven't heard anything about it. It seems like a bad idea from the standpoint of limiting escalation, even if the US is individually approving each target after vetting for potential political impact (which is a bad idea in and of itself).

It comes from a comment by Biden.  He mentions a 160 mile HIMARS rocket the Ukrainians will get.  The short range ATACMS is the obvious match for that.  He has already said a number of things that had to be walked back, so he might have just misspoke.

https://www.newsweek.com/fact-check-joe-bidens-claim-himars-given-ukraine-have-160-mile-range-1758739

Note: The article above seems to be completely unaware that ATACMS can be launched from HIMARS or MRLS's.

In reply to aircooled :

The context of his comment suggests he misspoke on the numbers, seeing as he specifically noted not wanting to provide the longer-ranged munitions to avoid Ukraine hitting targets inside Russia.

I would say that is likely, but I wonder if the misspeaking was related to not wanting to release that yet.   It looks like Poland is going to be giving them some longer range strike capability so maybe that cat will soon be out of the bag.

I do have to say, it does come off as pretty absurd that while Russia is obviously attacking with the clear intent to harm the civilian population it is somehow verboten that Ukraine might be able to return the favor.  I do understand the risk of escalation, but I am not sure to what, unless there is a credible fear of nukes. 

I mean, does anyone think Russia is in anyway holding back on it's civilian infrastructure attacks?  What exactly would they escalate to?  Would they step up to direct attacks on civilian population, which has sort of been done by Russia already (maybe by mistake or incompetence?)  The attack on the church, with children in it, with a giant sign outside, in Russian, that says it's full of children...

At some point, at least in some more way, bringing the war more directly to the Russian civilian population (specifically, the ethnic Russian) can serve to "encourage" a stronger internal Russian push back.  It of course could also encourage the narratives of the evil of the Ukrainians when the Russian government controls the media narrative.

Youtube video of the Russians blowing up the Nova Kakhovka power plant.

In reply to aircooled :

Attacks into Russia won't have much chance of provoking a reaction against the government. On the contrary, I suspect they will help Putin to solidify his control by justifying even harsher internal security measures, as well as building support for throwing the kitchen sink at Ukraine while cursing the US and NATO for encouraging and supplying them.

This is an asymmetric conflict, in spite of it being fought on a high intensity battlefield. Not that I want to keep hearkening back to Vietnam, but consider how Communist attacks on US airbases encouraged escalation in 1965. Now think about how much more support there would have been if those attacks (let's say terrorism or raids, in lieu of long range strike capability) had been carried out on US soil. Look how the attack on Pleiku was spun:

One month later the first Marine units landed at Da Nang, and the ground war was on.

There's no question that Russia's attacks against civilian targets have been brutal and without military object or purpose, but also consider how they have hardened the Ukrainian position. Do you really want to harden the Russian stance at this point, or is it more useful to allow them to suffer slowly the consequences of their own mistakes, with the government increasingly seen as the only plausible source of the failure in the eyes of its own people?

It appears that they blew up the west side of the dam which would be the right side of the river opposite of the power plant indicated by the direction of the water flow through the breach. The two structures pictured in the video seems to be gantry cranes with power line towers on the left side of the roadway.??

So did Pootin get those Nazis yet?

Once the right bank is secured with artillery in place, the Ukrainians should take some rafts across the river and shut off the Crimean canal.

AngryCorvair (Forum Supporter) said:

So did Pootin get those Nazis yet?

Lol, there's too many of them.

An update.  Of note is the note that the Russian do not seem to be defending the eastern bank of the Dnipro river.  Does this mean the Ukrainians will be able to cross?   I doubt it, considering it would give them control of the canal that supplies water to Crimea, but who knows?  As noted previously, the Russians seem to be concentrating on defending Metropol.  It can be seen in the smallish map below, it's where are the Ukrainian partisan activity is!

• Wagner Group Financer Yevgeny Prigozhin asked the Russian Prosecutor General’s Office to open a case against St. Petersburg Governor Alexander Beglov for high treason amid viral footage of Wagner forces murdering one of their own.[19] Prigozhin and Russian nationalist milbloggers largely supported the murder of the alleged traitor.[20]
• The Russian military grouping stationed in Belarus continues to generate social tensions among Belarusians.[21]
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the direction of Kreminna and Svatove.[22]
• Ukrainian forces continued to consolidate control over the right bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.[23] Ukrainian forces struck a Russian military base in Chaplynka, Kherson Oblast, 50km south of Beryslav on the eastern bank of the Dnipro.[24]
• Russian forces continued to conduct offensive operations in the directions of Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Vuhledar.[25] The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian forces captured Mayorsk, southeast of Bakhmut.[26]
• Russian forces continued routine indirect fire against frontline settlements in Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.[27] Russian forces struck Zaporizhzhia City with an Iskander missile.[28]
• Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the demobilization of mobilized students in Russian-occupied Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, likely as part of an ongoing effort to integrate proxy forces into the Russian Armed Forces.[29]
• Russian forces and occupation officials are forcibly mobilizing men in Russian-occupied Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast, and forcing them to construct trenches and defensive fortifications in the city.[30]
• Ukrainian officials stated that Russian forces are withdrawing from the left bank of the Dnipro River and concentrating forces and equipment in Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast, and Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast.[31]
• Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed an amendment to a draft law that would allow Russian officials to revoke Russian citizenship for disseminating “false” information about the Russian military, participating in extremist or undesirable organizations, or calling for violations of Russian “territorial integrity.”[32]

Some stuff from the other place.  Death sentence eh.  Not sure that will create the reaction they might want.

• Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is likely escalating against prominent Sunni Cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid, who has become increasingly critical of the regime in recent weeks.
• Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi held a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on November 12 and may have discussed Iranian ballistic missile sales to Russia.
• At least 12 protests took place in seven cities across five provinces.
• The mistreatment of imprisoned Iranian human rights activist Hossein Ronaghi may reinvigorate ongoing, anti-regime protests.
• The Iranian judiciary issued preliminary sentences against protesters arrested in Tehran Province, including one death sentence.
• Israeli combat aircraft conducted an airstrike against on a likely Iranian precision-guided munition cache at Shayrat Airbase, Homs Province, Syria.

The Ukrainians have been requesting (and probably get?) the C-RAM Centurian Phallanx.  It's basically the ship based Phalanx system on a truck.  Probably a bit of overkill for a drone, but should be rather effective against cruise missiles.  It's also capable of taking down mortar and artillery shells!