History in the Making: Russian Invasion

tuna55 said:

 

I apologize for backtracking a bit on this thread, but can you explain this? I get Russians pretending to hit things, but I do not know what is going on with water bottles, nor a few HVAC ducts laying about. I seriously am missing something between those things.

In response to the Ukrainian strike that killed (almost certainly) hundreds of Russian soldiers the Russians made a big deal out of destroying a massive HIMARS stockpile in a particular city.  The Ukrainians are showing pictures of a strike in the city the Russians claimed to hit that is pretty clearly a humanitarian aid storage area (lots of water bottles and some other almost certainly non-military supplies) and is also a hockey rink.  The HVAC ducting just fell from the roof as the result of the attack.

The Russian are actually claiming that the Ukrainians have re-staged the strike site by adding the bottles etc.  Which seems...... unlikely to say the least.  I suspect, if that rink had 1000 HIMARS missiles stored in it (as the Russians claim) it would probably look a bit worse than that!

The US will be sending M2 Bradleys, and Germany and France are also sending armored vehicles.  It sounds like they are expecting Ukraine to need these to recapture more of their territory.  I hope this helps.  Even though they are not a main battle tank, as I understand, M2s ended up accidentally facing off against Iraqi T72s in Desert Storm, and racked up quite a few kills, both with TOW missiles and their 25mm cannon.  I would assume this means they'll be likely to have no problem cutting up the T55s Russia is shipping to the front, as long as they don't get hit first.

Concerning reporting on the new Ukrainian law allowing for significant control of media by the state. Stories like this will not help Zelensky, especially if followed up by enforcement actions that are viewed as suppressive by the West.

In reply to Mr_Asa :

I recall reading somewhere that when the crew in a tank has hostiles climbing on their tank, they ask the crew of the adjacent tank to, "scratch my back."

In reply to eastsideTim :

I read the other day that they are having some problems with the maintenance requirements of the Abrams. I wonder if that has anything to do with them sending M2s this time, or if its just a "what we have on hand" thing.

In reply to Opti :

I'm not going to wade into the question of what's right and wrong - too murky, too much morality involved. My interest is analysis based on best available evidence, and aligning US interests with policy (while understanding that other governments will try to do the same thing to the best of their abilities). In that sense, anything Ukraine does that diverges from mainstream Western conceptions of good governance is going to weaken the case for continuing support. How much? I don't know, but I suspect this is a bigger deal in Europe than it is here, given (ironically) the dearth of reporting.

In reply to 02Pilot :

I agree. I think it will be seen pretty poorly in the US, i think its the perfect time given the current debate on trust in media in the US to really strike a cord with people. Plus there has been a lot of talk in the US about state controlled media in Russia, not going to look good when Ukraine starts doing something similar.

Opti said:

In reply to eastsideTim :

I read the other day that they are having some problems with the maintenance requirements of the Abrams. I wonder if that has anything to do with them sending M2s this time, or if its just a "what we have on hand" thing.

I suspect that is at least part of it.  The M2s are also lighter and easier to transport, so getting them there is still easier.  And optics/targeting systems in them are still likely light years ahead of what the Russians will be using.  I think their biggest weakness regarding survivability is they are fairly tall, at least compared to the Soviet BMP, so they make a larger target.  
Hopefully this ends up like other weapons systems, where it turns out Ukrainian troops have already been getting trained on them for a while, so they can be fielded quickly.

Edit:  just checked on something else, and if Google sources can be trusted, ground pressure of a Bradley is 9.3 psi, while an Abrams is 15 psi, so the Bradley may handle muddy/swampy conditions better.  For reference, ground pressure of an average human is supposed to be 16 psi.

In reply to eastsideTim :

thats crazy when a little skid steer is normally like 35 psi

eastsideTim said:

 

 For reference, ground pressure of an average human is supposed to be 16 psi.

Not to hijack, but each of my shoes are about 36 square inches. 72 x 16 = 1,152  lbs. I think that it's time that the army enforced some more stingent weight regulations.

In reply to Kreb (Forum Supporter) :

I would expect the 16 psi to include the impact load if taking a step while moving quickly.

02Pilot said:

In reply to Opti :

I'm not going to wade into the question of what's right and wrong - too murky, too much morality involved. My interest is analysis based on best available evidence, and aligning US interests with policy (while understanding that other governments will try to do the same thing to the best of their abilities). In that sense, anything Ukraine does that diverges from mainstream Western conceptions of good governance is going to weaken the case for continuing support. How much? I don't know, but I suspect this is a bigger deal in Europe than it is here, given (ironically) the dearth of reporting.

I'm wondering if Zelensky is anticipating "guerrilla" actions from Russia-friendly politicians when Ukraine retakes Russian-occupied territory.  He probably needs a big stick to beat reluctant actors into submission.  Wouldn't be the first time wartime caused a suspension of civil rights...

02Pilot said:

Concerning reporting on the new Ukrainian law allowing for significant control of media by the state. Stories like this will not help Zelensky, especially if followed up by enforcement actions that are viewed as suppressive by the West.

Before we totally condemn this (and it's not good), lets not forget that the US media is also pretty controlled during a conflict now.  Viet Nam made it pretty clear to leaders that having a press that is constantly undermining what is going on is a massive problem.  And that can be a huge reason we spent so much fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. 

Not to say this is a positive thing to happen, but we can't pretend the US comes at this from a holier than thou position. 

stroker said:

02Pilot said:

In reply to Opti :

I'm not going to wade into the question of what's right and wrong - too murky, too much morality involved. My interest is analysis based on best available evidence, and aligning US interests with policy (while understanding that other governments will try to do the same thing to the best of their abilities). In that sense, anything Ukraine does that diverges from mainstream Western conceptions of good governance is going to weaken the case for continuing support. How much? I don't know, but I suspect this is a bigger deal in Europe than it is here, given (ironically) the dearth of reporting.

I'm wondering if Zelensky is anticipating "guerrilla" actions from Russia-friendly politicians when Ukraine retakes Russian-occupied territory.  He probably needs a big stick to beat reluctant actors into submission.  Wouldn't be the first time wartime caused a suspension of civil rights...

I wonder how much will be left when those territories are taken back.

In reply to alfadriver :

It's pretty terrible when the US or anyone else does it, and the US does get an opinion when they arrive the ones footing a the bill for someone else war

In reply to Opti :

So we know you want all U$ out.  Fine.  

Can you accept that others would like to see russia pushed out of their gains before we talk about stopping backing?  Come on.

I ACCEPT footing the bill, especially noting that much of what we have sent are items that are not on the active list of usable arms.  Instead of just throwing them away, some actual value to this is happening.  Seems like a great use of my money instead of just trashing it.  

Nobody has said that Ukraine is corruption free, so stop making up reasons that we just blindly send stuff- that's no help at all.  And stop pretending that we are just willy-nilly sending cash over and it's ending up in the hands of people who are corrupt- that's no help and is false.

This is nowhere near what the US spent in the middle east- we have a decade of current spending to get there.  And this hasn't even been 12 months of support.  Let alone, why in the world would we suggest to Ukraine to stop when they still have all of the  momentum in geting russia out of their country.  Are we France all of a sudden?

Quick update:  The deeply religious Putler want's to respect the lord by pausing his lobbing of explosives on people.... or not.  The Ukrainians say:  "did you get our new years present?" (no, not really).

Sort of not confirmed stuff:

- The Russians have gone from 60,000 shells a day to 15,000.

- Along with scheduled Bradleys (noted above), the French will be supplying what might be called scout tanks (AMX-10).  Basically a lightly armored wheeled vehicle with a 105mm tank turret.

- There seems to be a suspicious amount of things blowing up inside Russia and some clearly increase Ukrainian drone activity (not sure what exactly those are), but a bit of payback seems like a nice thing (not targeting civilian infrastructure BTW)

• Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement that Russian forces will conduct a 36-hour ceasefire in observance of Russian Orthodox Christmas is likely an information operation intended to damage Ukraine’s reputation.
• Putin’s framing of the ceasefire on religious ground reinforces another Russian information operation that falsely frames Ukraine as suppressing religious groups and positions Putin as the true protector of the Christian faith.
• Putin has not changed his fundamental maximalist objectives in Ukraine.
• Wagner Financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that prisoners who volunteered with the Wagner Group in Ukraine received pardons, likely in a bid to inflate his influence and political power, strengthen Wagner Group’s prisoner recruitment, and reassure Wagner Group criminals in uniform.
• Russian forces continued limited counterattacks to regain lost positions along the Svatove-Kreminna line, and Russian forces claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the area.
• Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a successful counterattack as Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut and west of Donetsk City.
• Russian forces continued to operate sabotage and reconnaissance groups on the Dnipro River and reinforce positions in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast.
• Russian milbloggers claimed recent Russian successes in Zaporizhia Oblast, likely to distract from the slow Russian offensive around Bakhmut that may be culminating.
• Mobilized Russian servicemembers likely continue to represent an outsized portion of Russian military casualties in Ukraine.

Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:

eastsideTim said:

 

 For reference, ground pressure of an average human is supposed to be 16 psi.

Not to hijack, but each of my shoes are about 36 square inches. 72 x 16 = 1,152  lbs. I think that it's time that the army enforced some more stingent weight regulations.

Ground pressure is going to depend on what kind of shoes you're wearing.  The load of a bare foot is concentrated on the heel and the ball, and the arch isn't supposed to touch the ground at all.  The more flexible a shoe is, the more it will match that weight profile.  At the extreme, think about snowshoes.

alfadriver said:

In reply to Opti :

So we know you want all U$ out.  Fine.  

Can you accept that others would like to see russia pushed out of their gains before we talk about stopping backing?  Come on.

I ACCEPT footing the bill, especially noting that much of what we have sent are items that are not on the active list of usable arms.  Instead of just throwing them away, some actual value to this is happening.  Seems like a great use of my money instead of just trashing it.  

Nobody has said that Ukraine is corruption free, so stop making up reasons that we just blindly send stuff- that's no help at all.  And stop pretending that we are just willy-nilly sending cash over and it's ending up in the hands of people who are corrupt- that's no help and is false.

This is nowhere near what the US spent in the middle east- we have a decade of current spending to get there.  And this hasn't even been 12 months of support.  Let alone, why in the world would we suggest to Ukraine to stop when they still have all of the  momentum in geting russia out of their country.  Are we France all of a sudden?

I am not sure I have ever agreed with you harder.

Except France fought like the world superpower that they were in WW1, and the US would never accept losses like that in any conflict.

This is actually pretty cheap considering we're using up old stuff and learning A whole lot about which new stuff might be useful for us in the future.

matthewmcl said:

In reply to Kreb (Forum Supporter) :

I would expect the 16 psi to include the impact load if taking a step while moving quickly.

It is also possible the google source I rapidly looked up was terribly wrong.

Edit:  And now I am mentally fighting going down an off topic rabbit hole.  Years ago I saw video of some earth movers in the swamps around the Mississippi delta that could actually float.

alfadriver said:

In reply to Opti :

So we know you want all U$ out.  Fine.  

Can you accept that others would like to see russia pushed out of their gains before we talk about stopping backing?  Come on.

I ACCEPT footing the bill, especially noting that much of what we have sent are items that are not on the active list of usable arms.  Instead of just throwing them away, some actual value to this is happening.  Seems like a great use of my money instead of just trashing it.  

Nobody has said that Ukraine is corruption free, so stop making up reasons that we just blindly send stuff- that's no help at all.  And stop pretending that we are just willy-nilly sending cash over and it's ending up in the hands of people who are corrupt- that's no help and is false.

This is nowhere near what the US spent in the middle east- we have a decade of current spending to get there.  And this hasn't even been 12 months of support.  Let alone, why in the world would we suggest to Ukraine to stop when they still have all of the  momentum in geting russia out of their country.  Are we France all of a sudden?

I suppose at least part of the issue here is not so much the raw sums being spent, but rather the apparent one-way street when it comes to defining and reaping the benefits derived from it. The US role has been basically to provide arms and support, while trying to hold the reins on Zelensky tightly enough to minimize the risk of unwanted escalation. I have not seen any evidence of the US (or NATO, or the EU) laying out a clear plan for what their preferred post-war vision looks like. This is worrying, as the Ukrainian hardline has become the de facto position of Zelesky's government and its supporters; any deviation is looked upon as marking a potential split or softening of support, which is only because there are no competing visions on the table. This is a US policy failure, perhaps a calculated one (not wanting to undermine Zelensky's support or encourage Russia), and one that opens the administration to charges of simply throwing money at the problem.

Also, I don't quite understand the reference to France. The French are quite prone to supporting their military efforts to the bitter end, no matter the cost - witness WWI, Indochina, Algeria....

In reply to 02Pilot :

I'm certain the lack of clear policy is calculated as if goals and/or expectations were stated, it would give Russia something to work towards or around. We can pretty much guarantee during Zelensky's visit to the US, there were classified face-to-face talks with clear goals and expectations stated. There is zero need for that discussion to be made public.

To what extent is the fact that English is the defacto language of banking and international business due to our being the pre-eminent  military power as well?  If we were to stop sticking our noses into conflicts around the world, would the rest of the world start seeing us as less relevant to their plans and interests, or respect us more for it, or both?

To partially answer my own question, for roughly 40 years, international military power was conducted in the shadow of the two superpowers. Now that there is only one, our leaders are more loathe than ever to let another entity move into the number one spot, much less another power duopoly.

And how much longer will our chronic spending deficits alow this to go on for? 

And on another note, that French tank looks like it would need outriggers to keep from falling over when the gun fires. They must have some great kickback absorption technology.