I don't think that a country can be in a dominant position in the world order without being deep into tech. Russia is a lot weaker in that department than we'd figured 18 months ago, and that condition has only worsened. Russia is like that huge fat guy in a typical Hollywood fight scene. All he can do is throw haymakers and endure. He has no speed and little skill.
02Pilot said:....Another question is how long it will take for Russia to either be allowed to reintegrate into the global economy, or to develop alternative technological resources with another partner, likely China. Memories being what they are, I don't expect sanctions to remain as extensive once the conflict has faded from the Western public consciousness.....
This is the one overarching thought that I have. Once you have murdered a big chunk your family, how to you get back on the Xmas list?
Russia has petroleum products. But they have divorced themselves from modern technology as shared by civilized nations. I lived in Nigeria for 5 years. They had lots of petroleum, but no technology and a lot of corruption. That will be russia's future if they can not somehow reintegrate into the league of nations.
The other consequence of this war is that it is pretty evident that in a conventional war, NATO could finish off russia in an afternoon and still make it home for evening beers. Russia is going to have to do a lot of work to get back to being the boogey-man that they were militarily; that emperor gots no clothes. Going to be difficult with no technical infrastructure.
On a separate topic but pertinent to russia'a maintenance of equipment: has anyone heard the term "Fogbank" as it pertains to nuclear weapons maintenance. Maintenance being one of those things that russia is," very good at"?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fogbank#History
Toyman! said:If I was king of the world this is how I would deal with despots and their ilk. There would be no killing of the little man. There would be no billions for tanks and planes. One person is making the call to do all this killing. Take the war straight to them, personally.
Just a really good seal team and a couple of these.
And when the next guy to move into the vacuum misbehaves, send him a couple more. Do that enough times and they will get the picture.
I think history has trended escalation with that approach.
In reply to NOHOME :
It's apparent to me that Russia is what Russia has always historically been--their strength is the willingness of their population to sacrifice themselves like lemmings in support of their leadership, regardless of who or what that leadership is... My takeaway on the Ukraine war is that the Russian population, measured by the standards of the West, have no moral compass as evidenced by the torture facilities for kids found by the Ukrainians. Let 'em back in to the global economy? Berkeley that.
NOHOME said:On a separate topic but pertinent to russia'a maintenance of equipment: has anyone heard the term "Fogbank" as it pertains to nuclear weapons maintenance. Maintenance being one of those things that russia is," very good at"?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fogbank#History
From what I have seen (should be true?) the Russians have apparently put a priority in maintaining and upgrading their nuclear arsenal. What that actually means I don't know. I think it was based on how much of their budget was spent on it. You have to assume at least some of that was lost to corruption. It's possible, those in charge and those working with such things realize the downside of not maintaining them properly. They also might realize, in some sudden realization of the actual state of their military, that is their nuclear arsenal was their only sure thing threat to the world.
I always thought it would be a great move, by either the US or the CCCP, to pretend to develop a nuclear arsenal, but only do the minimum and use the rest of the money for other purposes, since everyone is going to die if the nukes get released anyway. It would be super hard to keep that secret of course.
This is interesting. There is apparently some sort of group in the Briansk region of Russia (northern front, north east of Kyiv) that is fighting against the Russians there? Are these Russians, are they Ukrainians?
"Russian volunteer corps": we are not fighting with civilians, calls for arms to fight Putin's army. "Death to Kremlin's tyrant"
Several videos of "Russian volunteer corps" appeared online, taking responsibility for the clashes in Briansk region of Russia
Authorities of Briansk region now dismiss all reports about "dozens of saboteurs", "explosions at infrastructure", "dozens of hostages" as "Ukrainian disinformation campaign"
Advisor to the office of President of Ukraine: The story about Ukrainian sabotage group in RF is a classic deliberate provocation. RF wants to scare its people to justify the attack on another country & the growing poverty after the year of war. The partisan movement in RF is getting stronger and more aggressive. Fear your partisans
Russian FSB border guards reported clashes with violators of the state border in Klimovo district of Briansk region
Kremlin's spokesperson: Putin is receiving reports on situation in Briansk region from FSB's Bortnkikov, MinDef Shoigu and head of Russian guard Zolotov now
Russian media: RosGuard with MLRS GRAD to be deployed in Klimovo district of Briansk region to fight saboteurs
stroker said:In reply to NOHOME :
It's apparent to me that Russia is what Russia has always historically been--their strength is the willingness of their population to sacrifice themselves like lemmings in support of their leadership, regardless of who or what that leadership is... My takeaway on the Ukraine war is that the Russian population, measured by the standards of the West, have no moral compass as evidenced by the torture facilities for kids found by the Ukrainians. Let 'em back in to the global economy? Berkeley that.
By this standard, we should be excluding China from the global economy.
In practical terms, there's no way to fully exclude any country from the global economy unless they want to be excluded (North Korea). You can limit their participation only as far as there is consensus, which is never total, and is often more limited than one might think.
aircooled said:Russian media: RosGuard with MLRS GRAD to be deployed in Klimovo district of Briansk region to fight saboteurs
Sounds like a "We had to destroy the village to save it" situation.
02Pilot said:stroker said:In reply to NOHOME :
It's apparent to me that Russia is what Russia has always historically been--their strength is the willingness of their population to sacrifice themselves like lemmings in support of their leadership, regardless of who or what that leadership is... My takeaway on the Ukraine war is that the Russian population, measured by the standards of the West, have no moral compass as evidenced by the torture facilities for kids found by the Ukrainians. Let 'em back in to the global economy? Berkeley that.
By this standard, we should be excluding China from the global economy.
In practical terms, there's no way to fully exclude any country from the global economy unless they want to be excluded (North Korea). You can limit their participation only as far as there is consensus, which is never total, and is often more limited than one might think.
Yes, we should be excluding China. For that and numerous other reasons (Hong Kong, Taiwan, South China Sea islands, slave camps, IP theft, clean air standards, etc. etc.). Glad we're all on the same page!
eastsideTim said:aircooled said:Russian media: RosGuard with MLRS GRAD to be deployed in Klimovo district of Briansk region to fight saboteurs
Sounds like a "We had to destroy the village to save it" situation.
Yes, it is a very strange piece of equipment to deal with some "rebels". For those that don't know, it's essentially an area attack rocket launcher. Great if you want to lay down a lot of fire in a football field size area all at once. Not exactly a precision attack system:
Flynlow (FS) said:02Pilot said:stroker said:In reply to NOHOME :
It's apparent to me that Russia is what Russia has always historically been--their strength is the willingness of their population to sacrifice themselves like lemmings in support of their leadership, regardless of who or what that leadership is... My takeaway on the Ukraine war is that the Russian population, measured by the standards of the West, have no moral compass as evidenced by the torture facilities for kids found by the Ukrainians. Let 'em back in to the global economy? Berkeley that.
By this standard, we should be excluding China from the global economy.
In practical terms, there's no way to fully exclude any country from the global economy unless they want to be excluded (North Korea). You can limit their participation only as far as there is consensus, which is never total, and is often more limited than one might think.
Yes, we should be excluding China. For that and numerous other reasons (Hong Kong, Taiwan, South China Sea islands, slave camps, IP theft, clean air standards, etc. etc.). Glad we're all on the same page!
I didn't say I was in favor of it. I just said that the standard suggested would incorporate more than just Russia.
Realistically, there is essentially zero chance of getting more than a handful of countries to agree on the sort of moral and legal standard that would be required to execute such an exclusion. The economic costs of doing so would be astounding, and no democratically-elected government would survive the prolonged economic upheaval that resulted from such a policy. It may be fun to fantasize about, but it is just that: a fantasy.
Some stats from Vuhledar (the Russian offensive in the south that gets little news because it's basically a shooting gallery):
02Pilot said:Flynlow (FS) said:02Pilot said:stroker said:In reply to NOHOME :
It's apparent to me that Russia is what Russia has always historically been--their strength is the willingness of their population to sacrifice themselves like lemmings in support of their leadership, regardless of who or what that leadership is... My takeaway on the Ukraine war is that the Russian population, measured by the standards of the West, have no moral compass as evidenced by the torture facilities for kids found by the Ukrainians. Let 'em back in to the global economy? Berkeley that.
By this standard, we should be excluding China from the global economy.
In practical terms, there's no way to fully exclude any country from the global economy unless they want to be excluded (North Korea). You can limit their participation only as far as there is consensus, which is never total, and is often more limited than one might think.
Yes, we should be excluding China. For that and numerous other reasons (Hong Kong, Taiwan, South China Sea islands, slave camps, IP theft, clean air standards, etc. etc.). Glad we're all on the same page!
I didn't say I was in favor of it. I just said that the standard suggested would incorporate more than just Russia.
Realistically, there is essentially zero chance of getting more than a handful of countries to agree on the sort of moral and legal standard that would be required to execute such an exclusion. The economic costs of doing so would be astounding, and no democratically-elected government would survive the prolonged economic upheaval that resulted from such a policy. It may be fun to fantasize about, but it is just that: a fantasy.
A fantasy.
Except it was just 1979 when that's roughly what we were doing.
OK, so this one might be a bit hard to follow, but the basics appears to be that the Russians where setting up a false flag (a Putin classic really) operation where Ukrainians cross the boarder (they opened a corridor where it could happen) and brutally murder Russian civilians. I am sure most everyone is aware of the wild absurdity of this (not ironic in the traditional sense) considering what the Russians have been doing for the last year.
It looks like the Ukrainians got wind of it and sent in their own group before the attack was supposed to happen and recorded videos that showed they were not there to kill civilians and the Russians should rise up (screen shot below). It looks like the Russians where unsure if the "actual" Ukrainians where their "fake" Ukrainians which caused massive confusion. Apparently there are flyers out there (that the fake Ukrainians where supposed to distribute). Not sure where the fake Ukranians are now...
(update) OK, it LOOKS like the "actual" Ukrainians confused the situation so much, the FSB (Russian Intelligence) thought THEIR plan was taking place, and released all the media on it (prepared before hand).
I am not entirely sure how this stopped whoever was supposed to go through the opened corridor.
It appears as if the "marketing" for the atrocity was prepared before hand, thus you have a video of Putin saying this (sorry for the bad screen shots). Obviously recorded BEFORE anything happened (and nothing ever did)
You would think someone could make some big news out of this once it's cleared up.
It's almost like you shouldn't believe what this guy says now! 
Here is some of the text released, but it's a bit hard to read because of the translation. More info is likely coming. This info and videos are here (twitter): https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1631360273058787329
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Most of those involved on our side did not know what they were involved in: There are instructions for a certain time on certain actions, according to the instructions the agent can get an idea of what is planned, but the idea is limited, at the level of guesswork.
What happened: 1) A "false-flag attack" was planned, in many ways a copy of the "rocket attacks" before 24.02.22, but in a harsher format: child casualties, hostages, leaflets, calls for terrorism.
A very limited circle of people knew, a number of those involved had an idea due to prior instructions received;
2) The field was cleared for the "Event X," that is, military units who did not know anything were cleared from the area, so they would not inadvertently stick their nose where they should not;
(To prevent Russian soldiers in the area of getting in the way of the FSB’s execution of the false-flag terror attack against Russian civilians to blame on Ukraine)
3) The real sabotage group fell like a brick on the head: the corridor was being cleared for "their" (FSB's) terrorists, and an hour and a half earlier the RDK (Russian Volunteer Corps fighting on behalf of Ukraine) came there instead;
4) Initial information about the casualty numbers, hostages taken, dead children – several (FSB) officers decided that "it has begun" and just provided the tasks to execute to their sections, mostly on information support.
(Dissemination of the result of the false-flag terror attack proceeded as planned in the media, to be blamed on Ukraine, but the false-flag was aborted due to confusion.)
5) While the Service (FSB) was figuring out that this was not at all the planned operation, the diversionary groups had already left through the corridor (back to #Ukraine) that we had carefully created for the "right terrorists.”
Civilians got lucky: the harvesting of bodies could have taken place in online mode (the plan was to actually murder Russian civilians in the false-flag). Given the press releases about the "mercilessly executed children," everything was supposed to be very violent.
tuna55 said:02Pilot said:Flynlow (FS) said:02Pilot said:stroker said:In reply to NOHOME :
It's apparent to me that Russia is what Russia has always historically been--their strength is the willingness of their population to sacrifice themselves like lemmings in support of their leadership, regardless of who or what that leadership is... My takeaway on the Ukraine war is that the Russian population, measured by the standards of the West, have no moral compass as evidenced by the torture facilities for kids found by the Ukrainians. Let 'em back in to the global economy? Berkeley that.
By this standard, we should be excluding China from the global economy.
In practical terms, there's no way to fully exclude any country from the global economy unless they want to be excluded (North Korea). You can limit their participation only as far as there is consensus, which is never total, and is often more limited than one might think.
Yes, we should be excluding China. For that and numerous other reasons (Hong Kong, Taiwan, South China Sea islands, slave camps, IP theft, clean air standards, etc. etc.). Glad we're all on the same page!
I didn't say I was in favor of it. I just said that the standard suggested would incorporate more than just Russia.
Realistically, there is essentially zero chance of getting more than a handful of countries to agree on the sort of moral and legal standard that would be required to execute such an exclusion. The economic costs of doing so would be astounding, and no democratically-elected government would survive the prolonged economic upheaval that resulted from such a policy. It may be fun to fantasize about, but it is just that: a fantasy.
A fantasy.
Except it was just 1979 when that's roughly what we were doing.
I'm sorry, but this is just incorrect. China began their economic reforms in 1978, reforms that moved their economy toward modernization and export-oriented development; prior to that, they simply had little to offer the global economy. Not only that, but their currency wasn't even readily convertible until 1994. Once it became a WTO member in 2001, the stage was set for what we have seen in more recent years, and exports didn't really take off until after that year.
The only thing of consequence that changed in 1979 was that the US extended full diplomatic recognition to the mainland. Obviously, it's a factor in everything that followed, but hardly the sole cause. It's worth mentioning that most of the rest of the Western world had recognized the PRC in 1950; the US was the outlier.
Note that the US opening was made seven years earlier with Nixon's visit, which was really the pivotal diplomatic shift. One can certainly point to that visit as having significant positive effects in pressuring the Soviets toward concluding the SALT I arms control agreements, but there were no real economic impacts expected nor realized for decades.
In reply to 02Pilot :
Funny you told me I was incorrect then basically confirmed what I said. Prior to around that time we didn't have a lot of economic dealings with China. I didn't say it was because of their abusive human rights record. I am saying that we don't exactly have to go back to antiquity to see how the world would look without trade with China.
In reply to tuna55 :
There's a difference between deliberately excluding a country that could otherwise meaningfully participate, versus the simple absence of economic activity leading to a lack of integration. I made a point about the former.
I would suggest that comparing the China of today to the China of 1979 is virtually going back to antiquity, at least in economic terms. China's GDP in 1979 was $178bn - by 2021 it was $17.73tn. Hardly the same country, economically speaking.
I visited China on vacation once (I have no interest in returning, not because of the vacation, it was fine). One of the interesting aspects is that they had "old timey" pictures of the cities (e.g. Shanghai). Those old timey pictures, if they where shot in the US could have been pictures from the US from 1908... the pictures where from the 1960's!!
To add some more confusion to the above noted incident. It looks like the Ukrainians are officially denying being involved and are blaming the incident on Russian partisans. They of course could be fully involved (as implied above) and want to make sure the blame is pointed more towards Russian partisans to help provoke revolt. (the bolding in point 3 is mine)
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The Kremlin accused Ukraine of conducting a border incursion in Bryansk Oblast, Russia on March 2 — a claim that Ukrainian officials denied. Bryansk Oblast Governor Alexander Bogomaz claimed that “several dozen” Ukrainian saboteurs conducted an armed incursion into the villages of Lyubenchane and Sushany on the international border.[1] The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) doubled down on Bogomaz’s accusation and claimed that the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) conducted an operation to “eliminate” Ukrainian saboteurs who reportedly killed one individual and took up to six individuals hostage.[2] Russian milbloggers and news aggregators offered differing information about the number of casualties and hostages, including claims that Ukrainian saboteurs fired on a school bus.[3] Russian President Vladimir Putin then responded unusually quickly to these claims, alleging that “neo-Nazis and their owners” carried out a “terrorist attack” against Bryansk Oblast.[4] Putin did not directly name Ukraine as the perpetrator of the attack in his televised statement, prompting Russian state media to later clarify that Putin meant ”Ukrainian neo-Nazis.”[5] Putin also claimed that Russia will "crush” neo-Nazis that have consistently aimed to deprive Russia of its history, killed the daughter of Russian nationalist ideolog Alexander Dugin, and ”killed people in Donbas.”[6]
Ukrainian officials denied the Kremlin’s accusations of Ukraine’s involvement in Bryansk Oblast and claimed that Russian officials might be facing problems with increasing partisan activity in Russia. Ukrainian Presidential Adviser Mykhailo Podolyak stated that Russian accusations are a deliberate “provocation” aimed at scaring the Russian people into believing that Russia needs to continue to fight in Ukraine.[7] Representative of the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Andriy Yusov stated that the incident in Bryansk Oblast is “part of transformative processes in Russia” and pointed to inter-ethnic, inter-religious, and socio-economic conflicts among Russian citizens in Russia.[8] Yusov also noted that the March 2 public statements of the Russian Volunteer Corps’, which claimed responsibility for the incursion, further show that “Russia is beginning to wake up against Putin’s bloody dictatorship.”[9] Yusov likely referred to two videos uploaded by Russian Volunteer Corps fighters claiming that they crossed the international border into Bryansk Oblast to “liberate” fellow Russian citizens from Putin’s dictatorship without harming Russian civilians.[10] The Russian Volunteer Corps claims to be an all-Russian, Ukraine-based armed formation operating under the Ukrainian Armed Forces; however, it is unclear if the group is affiliated with the Ukrainian military. The head of Dutch open-source investigative group Bellingcat's far-right monitoring project reported that the leader of the Russian Volunteer Corps, Denis Kapustin, is a notable far-right extremist figure.[11] Social media users geolocated one of the two videos showing two servicemen with the Russian Volunteer Corps flag to Sushany.[12] ISW cannot independently verify Russian, Ukrainian, or Russian Volunteer Corps’ claims at this time, and the two videos each showing two men in uniform holding a flag remains the only concrete evidence available that anything happened.
Hmmmm, what will the next big surprise be? The invasion was a surprise (to me at least), and the success of Ukraine's resistance was a bigger surprise. I read the piece above and it makes me wonder. Kinda hard to visualize a strong resistance movement, but one never knows. It's easier to visualize someone high up in the Kremlin seizing the moment to "save" the country (possibly so that he can become the next generation dictator). Despite the fact that Hitler surrounded himself by sycophants there were over 20 attempts on his life. Where are the attempts on Putins?
In reply to Kreb (Forum Supporter) :
Who says all these people being chucked out windows aren't intended to hit Putin walking on the sidewalk below?
A bit of an update on Bakhmut:
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Ukrainian forces appear to be setting conditions for a controlled fighting withdrawal from parts of Bakhmut. Russian forces have been fighting to take Bakhmut, a city with a pre-war population of roughly 70,000 people, since roughly May 2022 and have suffered devastating casualties in the process. Geolocated footage posted on March 3 confirms that Ukrainian troops have destroyed two critical bridges in the Bakhmut area—one across the Bakhmutivka River in northeastern Bakhmut and one along the Khromove-Bakhmut route just west of Bakhmut.[1] The preemptive destruction of bridges is likely an indicator that Ukrainian troops may seek to inhibit Russian movement in eastern Bakhmut and limit potential westward Russian egress routes out of Bakhmut. Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Oleksandr Rodnyanskyi previously stated on February 28 that Ukrainian forces could choose to pull back from positions in Bakhmut as needed.[2] Rodnyanskyi also noted that Ukraine has fortified the area west of Bakhmut such that even if Ukrainian troops begin to withdraw, Russian forces would not necessarily be able to rapidly take the entire city.[3] If the Ukrainian military command deems it necessary to withdraw from Bakhmut it will likely conduct a limited and controlled withdrawal from particularly difficult sectors of eastern Bakhmut judging from Ukrainian statements and reported Ukrainian actions. ISW will continue to monitor the situation and offer updated assessments of the implications of possible Russian courses of action if and when Ukrainian forces begin to pull back.
In reply to aircooled :
Has anyone come up with a plausible reason why Putin has such a hard-on for Bakhmut, yet...?
The only reason Bakhmut is such a critical get is because it appears to be the only thing they CAN possibly get! (mostly because Wagner has been involved)
So... marketing.
It has no particular major value otherwise. It is a town on the way to two other larger towns (Kramatorsk and Sloviansk), but that is about it, and it's not even super critical for that! For what they are paying to get this one, to take the other two, it would likely take about 10 years and 100 of thousands of dead Russians!!
The numerous attacks on Vuhledar (south eastern front) appear to be just to attack a town close to the front.... and they are getting obliterated there!
Bakhmut is in the lower right:
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